Sobering Thoughts |
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Comments on politics, the culture, economics, and sports by Paul Tuns.
I am editor-in-chief of "The Interim," Canada's life and family newspaper, and author of "Jean Chretien: A Legacy of Scandal" (2004) and "The Dauphin: The Truth about Justin Trudeau" (2015).
I am some combination of conservative/libertarian, standing athwart history yelling "bullshit!"
You can follow me on Twitter (@ptuns).
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Saturday, April 29, 2006
Kennedy leadership Gerard Kennedy, former head of a Toronto food bank and erstwhile Ontario education minister, announced he is joining the Liberal leadership race. Adam Daifallah is taking some heat for suggesting that Kennedy could be a dark-horse. Those commenting on his post say that he has no baggage (which Adam noted) because he has no accomplishments, no record to point to. I'm not so sure about that. He ran the Toronto Daily Bread Food Bank and there was relatively peaceful relations with the teachers unions in Ontario for the first time in recent memory. But even if he doesn't have much of a record to run on, he gets to define himself. And he will get to do that in what is already an attractive narrative for a candidate: (like Stockwell Day) he has lived all over Canada, he has worked to help the poor, he is young and has dedicated himself to public service, etc... Without many notable achievements behind him, he will be forced to run on his vision instead of his record and that is an advantage because most elections are about the future, not the past. Furthermore, as a left-leaning idealist he appeals to young voters and that in turn can be traded in for a claim to represent tomorrow. His relative youthfulness means that he is in for the long haul, an advantage when even many Liberals privately admit they think Stephen Harper's Conservatives are headed for a majority. Also, as an Ontario cabinet minister, he has government experience but no connection to the scandals that belong to the federal Liberals. To Canadian voters, his fresh face could be a welcome change. Kennedy might not amount to much as a candidate, but he has a lot of potential. Few people thought he had what it took win the Ontario Liberal leadership in 1997 but he was leading on the second last ballot. It wouldn't surprise me if he were to win the federal Liberal leadership in 2006. And if he doesn't, he could do well enough to position himself to be the next leader. Softwood lumber deal Burkean Canuck gets is right: "Could the Government of Canada accept the deal? The deal represents "the art of the possible." It's a political deal -- political in terms of what was possible for the U.S. administration in a Congressional election year -- that represents a positive trade policy outcome for the Govenrment of Canada. Not perfect (when is any deal?), but positive." And politically, the Tories score a lot of points for getting the job done. Friday, April 28, 2006
Advance market commitments and vaccines The Center for Global Development has a five-pronged plan to get vaccines into the hands of people in the developing world to curtail an estimated three million preventable ("avertable" in their words) deaths, entitled Vaccines for Development. The fifth part of the plan is advanced market commitments which are best described by The Economist (March 25, 2006): "Michael Kremer, an economist at Harvard University, argues that donors—ie, rich countries' governments—could engineer a market where none yet exists. They should make a legally binding commitment to buy a vaccine, if and when one is invented. If credible, such a promise would create an incentive for profit-seeking companies to find, test and make life-saving jabs or pills. Whereas today public money 'pushes' research on neglected diseases, under his proposal the promise of money tomorrow would 'pull' research along. This elegant notion, often called an “advance purchase commitment” (APC), has migrated with unusual speed from Mr Kremer's blackboard to the communiqués of the powerful. Next month, the finance ministers of the G8 countries will settle on one or two proposals in this spirit. As well as the toughest nuts—vaccines for AIDS, malaria and TB—three softer targets are also vying for the G8's attention: rotavirus (which causes diarrhoea in children), human papillomavirus (a cause of cervical cancer), and pneumococcus (a bacterium that causes pneumonia)." Sounds good but there are problems. One notable one is made by Andrew Farlow et al in a submission to the World Health Organization's Commission on Intellectual Property Rights, Innovation and Public Health last May that raises numerous practical issues: the proposals (the submission addressed) don't address liability risk, terms of new entrants to the vaccine industry, stable long-term price and supply details, how to distribute the subsidy to multiple developers of vaccines that treat a particular disease. Furthermore, AMC do not effectively balance credible advances in treatment with the flexibility that investors want and deserve. Farlow also has a larger and more comprehensive criticism of AMCs, "The Science, Economics, and Politics of Malaria Vaccine Policy," a submission to UK Department for International Development. (It is 358 pages, but the most important dozen criticisms can be easily gleaned from the extensive table of contents. Also, there is an 11-page executive summary, here.) From this work there are three main criticisms of AMCs: 1) they may create an incentive for less effective vaccines, 2) larger pharmaceutical firms might be able to influence the subsidy process (use bribes to increase their share of the market) and 3) that the promise of future purchases might not be credible (who will pay, is the money really there, lack of commitment from donors). The AMC idea has been around for about eight years; despite the fact that the word "market" shows up in the name of this concept, there are serious concerns that it doesn't pay proper respect to markets. It may or may not work but as Farlow's criticism shows, there is a very significant likelihood that it won't be the panacea some suggest. My music I haven't noted what's played recently on the IPod shuffle here so here's what I've been listening to over the past hour and a bit: Love Me or Leave Me (Lena Horne), Concerto for 3 Harpsichords (J.S. Bach), Ride On Baby (Rolling Stones), No. 26 Chorus from the Messiah (Handel), Busted (Ray Charles), Mysterious Ways (U2), As Tears Go By (Rolling Stones), Hot Stuff (Rolling Stones), Too Much Heaven (Bee Gees), Dance Little Sister (Rolling Stones), Shilo (Neil Diamond), Dizzy Boogie (Dizzy Gillespie), Tenderly (Sarah Vaughan), You Are My Sunshine (Ray Charles), The One I Love Belongs to Someone Else (Sarah Vaughan), Rotary Ten (REM), Planet Earth (Duran Duran), Mister, You're a Better Man Than I (Yardbirds), My Happiness (Ella Fitzgerald), Fire in the Hole (Tragically Hip), Konzert d-moll für zwei Violinen (BWV 1043). I. Vivace (J.S. Bach), Drive My Car (The Beatles), Supercalifragilisticexpialidocious (Julie Andrews), How Long How Long Blues (Ray Charles), Pussy Galore's Flying Circus (John Barry Orchestra). It's amazing -- there must be 200 or more artists on the IPod right now, a very ecletic mix and yet the same artists keep popping up over and over again. On the subway recently at one point five of six songs were Johnny Cash and then hours without any. Yankees update The New York Yankees, the so-called struggling bunch of aging veterans, beat the Tampa Bay Devil Rays 4-1. The team is now 11-9 but that is deceptive. They are 0-4 in one-run games which is partly bad luck. Yes, some teams win a disproportionate number of one-run games (the Chicago White Sox last year), but in any close game, as much as it pains baseball people to hear this, luck plays a factor -- by some estimates, as much as 25% of runs and outs are attributable to luck. To lose all four one-run games would suggest not that the Yankees are a bad team but rather they are exceedingly unlucky. (Although, admittedly, four games is a small sample size upon which to draw conclusions.) Eventually the Yankees will win a bunch of one-run games. Over time, these things usually even out. Furthermore, the Yankees have the best offense in baseball (their 397 OBP beats the second best OBP by 27 points, they have the second best slugging percentage in the game, the third best batting average) and the second best pitching in the American League (their 3.63 ERA is one-hundredth of a run behind the Detroit Tigers, they also have the second best WHIP). A team that is among the two best in the league in both hitting and pitching shouldn't be a slightly above 500 team which means that if their productive capacities (for the offense to score runs and the pitching to prevent them) are sustained, they are going to begin to wallop opponents. Even if they regress a little, they should be able to get a serious winning streak under way. Or they could be vastly over-producing now and they'll end up playing 500 ball all year. But the Yankees have too much talent to end up doing that, so expect things to turn around shortly. And lastly, despite the presence of sub-standard players such as all-hit, no-walk Robinson Cano and no-production Bernie Williams, the fact that they have guys like Jason Giambi who has an OBP over 550 because he has more walks than hits, means that they will force starting pitchers to get their pitch counts high quickly. Most of the lineup other than Cano and Miguel Cairo are patient at the plate and it wouldn't be surprising to see three players with 100 BBs this year and another three with 75 or more. Sullivan's name calling At AI cont'd, Dan Kennelly takes issue with Andrew Sullivan taking issue with the title of Ramesh Ponnuru's new book and implicit argument that the Democrats (and media and the courts), the pro-abortion party, are the Party of Death. Sullivan whines: "...the title of the book is reprehensible. To call half the country 'a party of death' and to assign that label to one's partisan political opponents is not, whatever else it is, an invitation to dialogue. It's demagoguic abuse. It's worthy of Ann Coulter (who, tellingly, has a blurb on the cover). It is one thing to argue that you are pro-life, to use the positive aspects of language to persuade. It is another to assert that people who differ from you are somehow "pro-death," (especially when they may merely be differing with you on the moral status of a zygote or the intricacies of end-of-life care). To smear an entire political party, and equate only one party with something as fundamental as life, is a new low in the descent of intellectual conservatism from Russell Kirk to Sean Hannity." Kennelly says: "This is rich - too rich - coming from the guy who has assigned to a huge segment (if not a slim majority) of the country the label “Christianist.” Christianists, for Neuhaus’ sake! A name calling to mind murderous Islamists bombers, with whose mindset, according to Sullivan, American religious conservatives differ only 'in degree.' So fine, Mr. Sullivan, let’s condede for a moment that Ponnuru has dabbled in Coulter-esque demagoguery, but only if you have the intellectual integrity to admit that this is a technique you have been wallowing in for a long time. As for 'the descent of intellectual conservatism'? I don’t know about that, but I can think of an example of the intellectual decline of a conservative ..." Ouch. Man-ape similarities The Spain Herald reports (HT: London Fog): The Spanish Socialist Party will introduce a bill in the Congress of Deputies calling for 'the immediate inclusion of (simians) in the category of persons, and that they be given the moral and legal protection that currently are only enjoyed by human beings.' The PSOE's justification is that humans share 98.4% of our genes with chimpanzees, 97.7% with gorillas, and 96.4% with orangutans. Perhaps the Spanish Socialist Party may see similarities between themselves and various apes but they shouldn't extrapolate that to the human species in general. Oh what a difference 1.6% - 3.6% can make. Thursday, April 27, 2006
Assad firmly in power Esther Pan of the Council for Foreign Relations finds that a confluence of events including the international pressure asserted on Syria following the assassination of Rafik Hariri, a divided and ineffective opposition and the West's attention focusing on Iran, means that Bashar al-Assad's hold on power is as strong as ever. There's also a more in-depth Q&A on the issue, here. Today's excitement We were evacuated from the building earlier because of a suspicious package was found in the alley beside the building. Long lunch, no harm, lots of excitement, a story to tell the family over dinner. Reforming foreign aid (Part I) The C.D. Howe Institute has released a pair of commentaries on foreign aid. I'll try to get to Danielle Goldfarb and Stephen Tapp's Commentary (How Canada Can Improve Its Development Aid: Lessons from Other Aid Agencies) in the next day or so, but for now I just wanted to highlight John Richards's Commentary, Can Aid Work: Thinking About Development Strategy. He makes two noteworthy conclusions: 1) We don't know what works when it comes to effective aid strategy and 2) That good governance is correlated to economic growth. He concludes that the Canadian International Development Agency should do more to ensure that the 25 recipient countries Canada gives aid to ensure good governance. One of the difficulties in doing so is that tying aid to certain benchmarks in terms of "control of corruption," "rule of law," "voice and accountability," and "regulatory quality" smacks of neo-colonialism and thus western donors shy away from encouraging better governance (open government, effective domestic policies, functioning legal system). Canada and other donor countries should either encourage good governance by funding projects and providing expertise that would create more effective government and programs or reward those nations that improve on these measures (according to the World Bank's Governance Matters indices). Most of CIDA's 25 chosen recipient nations do very poorly on these indices. Unfortunately, Canada disperses too little aid to too many nations (even 25 -- a target that CIDA has not fully implemented -- is too many) and thus it cannot be the carrot to goad recipient countries to better governance. Canada could do more by doing less. For more on this topic see Chapter 9, Improving Public Sector Governance: The Grand Challenge? in the World Bank's Economic Growth in the 1990s: Learning from a Decade of Reform, which finds that few developing countries have experienced sustained economic growth because most developing countries suffer from very bad governance. Unfortunately, the World Bank found that improvements in governance have only typically been implemented when strong leaders committed to change forced them through. That doesn't bode well for the argument that aid can be a carrot for reform, but the point remains that aid agencies cannot be indifferent to the quality of governance. The hazards of working downtown I work about a block from the Eaton's Centre, near Ryerson and it is generally a great place to work: it's near the subway, it's a five minute walk to the World's Biggest Bookstore and a decent used bookstore, there is an ample number of restaurants of all price ranges, and countless other amenities. But right now I can't leave the building because there is a police investigation outside that is taking up about a third of the block -- including directly in front of our building and, perhaps coincidentally, the neighbouring mosque. Or as the local police call it, "mosque." There goes going out for lunch today. Just noting Jay Nordlinger: "You think that radical Islam is starkly different from Soviet Communism, a new kind of enemy, for a new, terrible age. And then you read what was published yesterday: Ayatollah Khamenei threatened the United States when 'speaking to workers in advance of the May 1 celebration of International Laborers Day.' Oh, geez: These guys have May 1 celebrations, just like the Sovs? Do they sing the 'Internationale,' too? And do the leaders' wives weigh more than they?" You want another similarity? The Left didn't think that Soviet communism was worth fighting, either. Socialism saves Union Station As Sue-Ann Levy notes in today's Toronto Sun, that union-loving Toronto Mayor David Miller scrapped the much-need renovation of Union Station to keep the transportation hub in public hands. Miller and his fellow "pro-public sector pinkos on council" don't like the fact that private money is revitalizing Union Station. But where is the perpetually hat-in-hand city going to find the money to fix Union Station? (HT: Miller's Follies) Unite the Left This rallying call to unite the ND and Liberal parties might not be as popular as some headlines have it. CTV says: "Voters like idea of a NDP-Liberal merger: poll." But according to the Decima poll on which the story is based, only one in four Canadians supported the merger. And, according to the CP story that CTV ran, "Voters who supported either of the two parties in last winter's election were even more receptive to the idea: 36 per cent of Liberals favoured a merger and 32 per cent of New Democrats." Wow! More receptive, and it still amounts to a little more or little less than one in three voters. I don't have a lot of time to get into this or develop the ideas but I want to throw this out for your consideration: there is a number of big differences between the unite-the-right talk a decade ago and the unite-the-left talk now. Here they are, to name just a few: 1) Rightly or wrongly, the Reform Party was seen as a splinter party of the Progressive Conservatives. The NDP did not break away from the Liberals. 2) Talk about uniting the right occurred while the Reform Party was still relatively young. The NDP has been around for 45 years if you don't count the CCF years. 3) The perception that the new conservative alternative the Progressive Conservatives votes and would continue to do so. That is, without unity on the right, there would be no way for them to form a government; the same long-term defeatism has not become a significant view on the left, that is, while many Liberals will concede that the Tories will likely win the next election they see themselves being able to return to power eventually. 4) Neither the Liberals nor the NDP see themselves as particularly week. The Liberals see themselves as a national party, albeit one with some baggage. The NDP see themselves as growing. In the 1990s, Reform struggled as a mostly western-based party and the Tories were fighting for official party status. 5) The Tories and Reform were closer ideologically -- at least among its voter base -- than the NDP and Liberals. There are many right-of-centre Liberals and ethnic Liberals skeptical of the NDP's socialism (perceived or real). 6) The presence of the Green Party as a viable alternative to ideologically left voters who would be displeased with the merger means that former NDP voters will have a choice of where to park their votes. There are certainly others. And some of these factors will change or matter less. If the Conservatives win their third majority in 2015, I'd expect serious talk about uniting the Left when desperation for regaining power becomes more pronounced. Or if the Liberals get reduced to a Tories-in-1993 type caucus of two, the unite-the-left talk will become more serious. But until then, it is the type of issue that excites the political pundits but which is so far from the radar screens of people that matter -- voters on the one hand and the party apparatchiks on the other -- that is hardly makes sense to further discuss it. Wednesday, April 26, 2006
Gordon Brown gets big endorsement Angelina Jolie has publicly endorsed Gordon Brown for prime minister at an event calling for universal access to public education. The thing I found curious about this story is noting that Angelina and Gordon are on first name terms. That's nothing special; it seems that in 2006, everyone is. No surprises here Human Events has the 10 most liberal cities (along with the reasons) although some may have thought Berkeley should have been higher: 10. Seattle, Wash. 9. Newark, N.J. 8. Berkeley, Calif. 7. Madison, Wis. 6. Portland, Ore. 5. Washington, D.C. 4. Detroit, Mich. 3. New York, N.Y. 2. Boston, Mass. 1. San Francisco, Calif. Hewitt on Snow Tony Snow becomes the White House mouth piece. Hugh Hewitt has the best comment(s) on the announcement: "The announcement that Tony Snow will return to the White House is great news on many levels. I hadn't really believed this would happen because it is a big sacrifice on Snow's part, partly because radio shows are difficult to launch and difficult to build and Tony's show had gotten off to a successful start and partly because the grind of the White House in that job in particular is quite tough. And there's the pay cut and time away from the family. I think Tony Snow took the job because he's a patriot asked by the president to serve in a time of war. (See Mark Daniels' comment on this as well.) I can't think of anyone saying no to the president when thousands of American troops are in harm's way and the task is a big one. That's a little old-fashioned, I suppose, but Tony Snow brings some very old fashioned virtues to his new job." And the next best comment -- stated in various ways by others -- is from Martha Joynt Kumar, "a Towson University professor who studies presidential communication," as quoted in the Washington Post: "Tony Snow should provide a smooth presence at the podium. But the problems that presidents have are political problems and policy problems, not press problems. But it is often the press problems that get addressed." President George W. Bush has found a great person to present his ideas -- now he needs to get some limited government ideas that address some of the major domestic concerns and right what's wrong with their Iraq policy. Sports stuff Two quickies. Huge disappointment in this household that AC Milan didn't make it to the European Champions League final after drawing Barcelona 0-0. Milan lost last week 1-0 and so lose on aggregate. The Tuns household will be united behind eldest son's favourite team, Arsenal. While most commentators think that the winner of today's matchup will end up the European champion, you can't count out Arsenal which hasn't allowed a goal in its past 12 European matches. Barca has its work cut out for them. In the Yankees-Devil Rays game that is tied 2-2 in the eighth inning right now, the Yankees have stolen four bases. Impressive. And inconsequential. Both runs the Yankees scored came off a Gary Sheffield homerun. I personally like watching "one-run-at-a-time" or "fundamentals" baseball of bunting, sac flies, stolen bases but as the writers at Baseball Prospectus have noted (and what Earl Weaver knew well), it doesn't really win a lot of games and it gives up too many outs. With the Yankees power and age, stealing bases shouldn't really be part of their repertoire. On the good side of the ledger, Joe Torre brought Mariano Rivera in at the top of the ninth with the game tied. Torre doesn't do this enough -- and he'd never do it on the road when Rivera couldn't get a save -- but I'm glad he did it tonight. Gairdner on the 'homeless' problem An excellent post by William Gairdner on the "homeless" problem which is really a mental health issue. Going (very) briefly into how society has turned the emotionally sick into ideological victims of the "anti-psychiatry" movement, Gairdner finds that, "governments that wanted to save costs, and libertarians and Marxists critical of society for different reasons, found themselves colluding to end not just some, but all writs of involuntary confinement and so by the 1970s the insane asylums of the Western world began to empty." There are other reasons (family instability) but mental illness, according to some estimates, accounts for 35%-50% of the "homeless" problem. Monday, April 24, 2006
The assault on property rights in Russia Andrew Wilson at the Centre for International Private Enterprise blog notes: "Today’s Washington Post highlights a new phenomenon in business that our partners in Russia have been alerting us to for the past several months. Small and medium size businesses that have either achieved profitability or sit astride valuable real estate are increasingly susceptible to hostile and often illegal takeover sanctioned by corrupt courts and bureacrats. While high profile cases such as the Yukos affair garner international headlines, the true crisis in Russia’s private sector is the assault on small and medium private enterprises carried out by individuals who abuse Russia’s incomplete corporate legal system to acquire controlling stakes in firms, or paralyze their ability to operate until a sale at 'favorable rates' can be made." Missing the point Two examples of two journalists who are usually better than this missing the point. In the Washington Post, Sebastian Mallaby laments that globalization has lost its voice because various multilateral organizations (the IMF, WTO, World Bank) have lost their way. Whether or not these organizations remain relevant is quite beside the point that globalization is a fact that doesn't need a central organizing committee. Globalization is not the result of carefully orchestrated policies or programs but what happens when billions of people are free to exchange goods and services. Lawrence F. Kaplan writes for the Los Angeles Times (reprinted at TNRO) that the specter of Iraq casts a shadow over the progressives who want to do something about Darfur, apparrently because the whole project to liberate Iraq and bring democracy to the Middle East has called into question any international interventions. What Kaplan can't admit is that the slogans of progressives -- "A Call to Your Conscience: Save Darfur!," "Take Action Now" -- are empty slogans at any time, regardless of Iraq. As Kaplan notes, what action and whose conscience? But these questions are to be asked of any progressive protest, not just post-Iraq ones. Sunday, April 23, 2006
CBC narcissism -- your tax dollars at work Proud to be Canadian notes the headline, "CBC lays off 79 staff" and says: "Public reaction: Yawn. Location of headline: Only on CBC.ca. Level of vanity and sense of self-importance at the CBC: Limitless. Hideous. Word of the day: Solipsistic. When a company I owned and ran layed-off a bunch of people, the state-employed news hounds at the state-run CBC didn’t send a crew out to report on it, nor even mention it at the multi-gazillion-dollar taxpayer-funded state-run CBC.ca which competes against private Canadian citizens not unlike me. Nor did they when a company I worked for layed off 189 staff. Perhaps it’s not important when it’s not them. Or government employees. So self-involved are they and with such an overblown and exaggerated estimate of their own value that they saw fit to make that (non)story one of the top stories listed in their state-run web site, CBC.ca, yesterday. It was listed in the number three slot yesterday on the front page of the state-run CBC.ca people’s web site when my wife sent it to me in disgust. It remains even today, after much news has occurred from all over, as one of their top stories --which of course it is in their minds only." Belated Happy Earth Day Saturday was Earth Day and the Wall Street Journal editorialized that it is worth celebrating because America, at least, is becoming a greener, cleaner country: "Since 1970, carbon monoxide emissions in the U.S. are down 55%, according to the Environmental Protection Agency. Particulate emissions are down nearly 80%, and sulfur dioxide emissions have been reduced by half. Lead emissions have declined more than 98%. All of this has been accomplished despite a doubling of the number of cars on the road and a near-tripling of the number of miles driven, according to Steven Hayward of the Pacific Research Institute." But as the Journal notes, the environmental scare-mongers don't want you to know/believe that because it interferes with their agenda of more government. Apparently the green movement doesn't want successes as much as it want more expensive programs and government intrusion. The rest of though have reason to celebrate. Do so by enjoying the cleaner air. Belated Happy Earth Day Saturday was Earth Day and the Wall Street Journal editorialized that it is worth celebrating because America, at least, is becoming a greener, cleaner country: "Since 1970, carbon monoxide emissions in the U.S. are down 55%, according to the Environmental Protection Agency. Particulate emissions are down nearly 80%, and sulfur dioxide emissions have been reduced by half. Lead emissions have declined more than 98%. All of this has been accomplished despite a doubling of the number of cars on the road and a near-tripling of the number of miles driven, according to Steven Hayward of the Pacific Research Institute." But as the Journal notes, the environmental scare-mongers don't want you to know/believe that because it interferes with their agenda of more government. Apparently the green movement doesn't want successes as much as it want more expensive programs and government intrusion. The rest of though have reason to celebrate. Do so by enjoying the cleaner air. The NYT and Fidel Here's the beginning of Jonathan Alter's review in the New York Times of Anthony DePalma's The Man Who Invented Fidel: Castro, Cuba, and Herbert L. Matthews of The New York Times: "IN August, Fidel Castro will turn 80, with no final reward in sight. The small island nation he has tyrannized for an astonishing 47 years has played an outsize role in modern history, from the 1962 Cuban missile crisis, which brought the superpowers 'thisclose' to nuclear war (in the words of Robert McNamara), to the Elián González case, which helped tip Florida and thus the 2000 presidential election to George W. Bush." Interesting first paragraph. Never thought I'd see the words "Fidel Castro" and "tyrannized" in the same thought in the New York Times unless he was on the receiving end of some American tyranny. But alas, the end of the sentence explains why the Cuban dictator is out of favour with the paper: he is seen as partly responsible for the election of President George W. Bush in 2000. All the "free health care" and "universal education" in the world won't make up for that crime. Alter's review of the book (which I have yet to read but intend to) seems to come to the right conclusions: Fidel Castro was not propelled to power by Times reporter Herbert Matthews but he was transformed into a romantic hero. Especially. Alter forgot to note, to the likes of the New York Times. Here's an interesting tidbit from Alter's review that illustrates that the paper has always had a small problem with journalistic ethics: "In 1957, Matthews was an aging Times editorial writer whose strong relationship with the publisher, Arthur Hays Sulzberger, allowed him to double as a roving straight-news reporter, an arrangement that was a departure from Times policy. After The Times and other newspapers reported that the young Cuban rebel leader Fidel Castro was dead, Matthews — always a resourceful, enterprising correspondent — decided to go see for himself. Posing as tourists, he and his wife made their way through the dictator Fulgencio Batista's military lines before Matthews alone completed the difficult journey into the Sierra Maestra on foot. The front-page scoop that followed and two additional articles predicted "a new deal for Cuba" if Castro's insurgency won and reported that the romantic revolutionary was no Communist; in fact, the local Communists opposed him ... The exclusive was a sensation at the time and transformed Castro's image from a hotheaded Don Quixote into the youthful face of the future of Cuba." Editorial writers masquerading as reporters; nearly 50 years later, the problem is reporters playing the part of editorial writers. Saturday, April 22, 2006
Cano walks! It took 58 at-bats, but New York Yankees 2B Robinson Cano finally drew a walk. The good BA, same OBA sophomore actually had two walks today against the Baltimore Orioles. Could he be learning some patience from the rest of the Yankees lineup? Finally. Maybe all those stories about giving up steroids will disappear San Francisco Giant Barry Bonds hit his first homerun of the season. It took Coors Field in Denver to do it, but after 13 games and 31 at-bats, Bonds has homerun 709, just five behind Babe Ruth. The Da Vinci Code is a Christian film? The (London) Times thinks so. The movie based on Dan Brown's book is the latest Christian blockbuster from Hollywood. The Green Tories According to a Sunday Telegraph column he penned, British Conservative [sic] leader David Cameron doesn't want to force cars off the road in England to meet emission targets, he just wants to tell Britons what kind of cars they can drive. Cameron says: "As our name implies, we are the natural party of conservation. We believe in enterprise and innovation, we have faith in markets, and we understand that Government doesn't have all the answers - that we have a shared responsibility to bring about positive change." The Tories, it seems, have faith in markets as long as they are heavily regulated by the state. Soft paternalism is still paternalism. The most interesting news story of the day From the Sunday Telegraph: "President Hu Jintao of China flew into an enthusiastic welcome in Saudi Arabia yesterday to negotiate new oil supplies, safe in the knowledge that the closely controlled kingdom will not allow embarrassing protests like those he faced in America last week." I am a little concerned by the idea of Saudi Arabia supplying Red China with endless oil. I found it notable that Hu would be welcomed in classic communist China style: with no embarrassing protests. Saudi Arabia is China's kind of people. Statement by the Prime Minister on the birthday of Queen Elizabeth II The PMO released this statement yesterday:April 21, 2006 "It is with great pleasure that I wish Queen Elizabeth II a very happy 80th birthday. On this very special occasion, I hope that she will enjoy a wonderful celebration with family and friends. This important milestone is an opportunity for all to honour her for her many years of courageous and caring leadership. She has earned great respect, admiration and affection from her friends, family and the people of the Commonwealth. On behalf of my colleagues in the Government of Canada and my wife Laureen, I offer her our very best wishes for health and happiness on this day and in the years ahead." I doubt that Stephen Harper is a monarchist but the respect he pays to Canadian tradition and institutions -- and the Queen is a Canadian institution, too -- is a welcome change from 13 years of constitutional vandalism at the hands of the Liberals. Clarification Due to the privacy, virus and other protection software we have on our computer, sometimes (when I forget to manually over-ride it) names of places (Toronto, Canada), names (Paul, Patrick) and some numbers come up as MFMF or MFEMFEM, etc... I try to remember to over-ride the protection software when posting and check afterward, but sometimes I miss it. Sorry for any confusion. On the up-side, at least I know that many of read the posts on Toronto's homeless census. If you ever notice this particular mistake - or any other errors -- please send a note to paul_tuns@yahoo.com. Thursday, April 20, 2006
Whelan on American justices Before getting to the meat of Ed Whelan's post at NRO's Bench Memos blog, consider this: "[T]hose of us who rue the Supreme Court’s lawless judicial activism must take note of the fact that 17 of the 23 justices appointed to the Court since the beginning of the Eisenhower administration have been Republican appointees." Whelan wonders, "Which President made the worst choice between his two final candidates," as justices to the Supreme Court of the United States. As Whelan notes, it's a tough call. In 1990 Bush the Elder chose David Souter over Edith Jones but 15 years earlier, Gerald Ford picked John Paul Stevens over J. Clifford Wallace. It is obvious, however, that Republican presidents share part of the blame for the problem of judicial activism. Indeed, Ronald Reagan nominated Sandra Day O'Connor. Great tidbits from Nordlinger A couple of my favourite morsels from Jay Nordlinger's Impromptus column today. On a handful of retired general calling for Rummy's head: "All my life, I heard people warn about the influence of generals and admirals over Pentagon affairs: 'Civilian control, civilian control,' they always stressed. And when a general uttered a peep about some matter of policy, the cries went up — from the left — that a military dictatorship was about to descend on our land. ...Odd that I've heard none of those voices in recent days. Have you?" On the political use of military brass: "You remember the 2004 Democratic convention, at which all the retired military people who supported Kerry lined up on the stage, to hail their man? You know: Stansfield Turner and that bunch. Well, that stage could easily accommodate all the military brass who supported Kerry. And they looked sort of impressive there, all lined up. Of course, the Republican convention couldn't pull the same stunt — gathering all the military people who supported Bush. Because Madison Square Garden has only so much room." On Democratic snottiness (and hypocrisy): "I have a standing interest in Democrats or liberals who criticize Republicans or conservatives on class grounds — you know, the Democrats who snicker at manual labor, or whatever. They're the party of the common man, except when they don't want to be. Do you remember that ad that Bill Richardson ran against his gubernatorial opponent? 'While I was cutting taxes for the people of New Mexico, my opponent was serving orange juice at 30,000 feet.' (Richardson's opponent had been an airline steward.) Anyway, I thought of all this when reading this article about Sean Hannity. It says, 'Actor Alec Baldwin . . . called Hannity a "no-talent, former-construction-worker hack" during a recent radio confrontation.' First, I had no idea that Sean did construction work — makes me think even better of him. Second: Is this really the way liberals want to be talking? Isn't that talk supposed to come from Republicans in limousines, running over urchins? While I'm asking questions: Do you remember when Ruth Bader Ginsburg, during a speech in Australia, mocked Tom DeLay for having run an extermination business?" Clarification on homeless census I noted yesterday that the volunteer army the city of T'ronta had to canvass the homeless were paid. In fact, only the team leaders who had to undergo some training and oversee a number of underlings were paid. I am assured by one such team leader that the numbers were not inflated by the decoys the city hired to assist for auditing purposes. Rationing healthcare Greg Staples links to this Maclean's article on how doctors are refusing treatment to patients who live unhealthy lifestyles whether it be that they drink excessively, smoke, are obese or use drugs. (Mark Steyn once made noted that homosexuals would never be refused treatment for AIDS/HIV or the plethora of other ailments that anal sex can lead to? Why not, if their lifestyle choices lead to certain medical conditions?) Anyway, Staples says that he supports the doctors initiative if the taxes on unhealthy living, taxes that ostensibly are used to cover increased health costs, are removed. But Staples misses an important point: the doctors are making the decision to not treat while governments are pocketing the sin taxes. The decision of doctors to refuse treatment is nothing but a form of rationing. That much is clear when you read the article: there are only so many procedures to be performed so why waste them on patients who are at greater risk of complications -- an obese person will cause more wear and tear on artificial joints than a fit person so deny him or her treatment, goes the thinking. The problem in Canada is that this is the thin edge of the wedge for more rationing. I'd have less of a problem of doctors refusing treatment if patients had the option of going elsewhere (and I don't mean another country) for care. But perhaps there is a market mechanism that can be applied here: high-risk patients should pay for part of their treatment. And I don't mean diseases and injuries that might be linked to their lifestyles choices but rather based on an assessment of how their unhealthy living would impact their recovery. The problem with that plan is that the government may press doctors into determinations based more on economics than on medicine. Newt's thoughts on politics and everything else You can sign up for Newt Gingrich's e-newsletter Winning the Future, which he will begin sending out next week. Armed citizens are free citizens Marni Soupcoff, a member of the National Post's editorial staff, writes with great aplumb about gun control and Toronto's problems with shooting deaths in the current issue of Regulation (a great quarterly magazine from the Cato Institute). In her final paragraph she sums up why she is uncomfortable with law-abiding citizens handing over their weapons: no matter how "down on handguns" politicians may be, they are never opposed to "keeping a few around for those in power." This reminds me of a t-shirt someone had in my high school. It had pictures of Mao Tse-Tung, Adolf Hitler, Benito Mussolini, Joseph Stalin, Idi Amin and Fidel Castro with the caption: "The experts agree, gun control works." Club for Growth backs Blackwell Ken Blackwell's gubernatorial campaign picked up the endorsement of the Club for Growth which generally focuses on federal candidates: "Ohioans for Blackwell today announced that The Club for Growth PAC, the political action arm of the nation's leading free-market advocacy group, endorsed Ken Blackwell to replace out-going Governor Bob Taft and improve Ohio’s economic competitiveness. 'The Club for Growth PAC rarely endorses in a non-federal election contest, but Ohio is vitally important in the success of the pro-growth agenda across the country,' said Club for Growth President Pat Toomey. 'Already a national leader in the conservative movement, Ken’s rock-solid commitment to limited government, economic freedom and free enterprise will make him one of the most pro-growth governors in America. His leadership is critical to restoring Ohio and our nation’s economic principles'." (HT: Club for Growth blog) Not really surprising. Just typical UN stupidity Michael Barone: "You can't make this stuff up: 'United Nations Commission on Disarmament on Tuesday elected Iran as deputy for Asian nations.' The last sentence in the release is a winner too: 'They [Non-Aligned Movement member states] also called on Israel to sign up to [the Non-Proliferation Treaty] and give access to all its nuclear sites for monitoring by U.N. nuclear agency.' Ah, that's zeroing in on the real problem." The folly of campaign contribution limits NCC vice president Gerry Nicholls writes against campaign contribution limits in the Globe and Mail and offers both principled and practical arguments against them. First, the principled (that is, ideological) argument against them, from freedom: "[There is] an important principle at stake here. What right does the government have to tell me who I can give my own money to? It's my property. If I want to donate $10,000 to the Liberals or the NDP shouldn't that be my right? What's more, contributing money to a political party is also a form of political expression and any attempt to limit that expression is undemocratic and could possibly violate the Charter of Rights and Freedoms." And one of the several practical arguments against them that Nicholls makes: "Let's face it, as long as elected politicians exercise power there will be those who will want to influence them, whether contribution limits are in place or not. In fact, all contribution limits will do is cause the influence seekers to use other means to get their way, either through more intensive lobbying or through outright bribes. Ironically then, contribution limits could lead to more corruption, not less." Red China's brutal regime From the Guardian: "British surgeons yesterday condemned the use of executed prisoners' organs for transplants in China, saying that shortages in the UK were tempting British patients to travel despite the grave ethical issues involved. The British Transplantation Society said that 'an accumulating body of evidence suggests that the organs of executed prisoners are being removed for transplantation without the prior consent of either the prisoner or their family.' Thousands of organs are thought to be involved in the lucrative trade, it said. Transplant centres, patients, and the Chinese authorities and judiciary could all be implicated in a breach of human rights." What are the odds this issue will ever be raised before the new Human Rights Council? Clarifying my view on the Toronto homeless census A number of people have emailed to criticize my earlier post on the homeless census saying that counting the number of people on the street makes sense. I agree. If the city of Toronto is going to spend $200 million on the homeless problem it is a good idea to know how many there are so that (eventually) the city can determine if it is making progress or adequately funding (or over-funding) programs. So ditto to the common sense Toronto Sun editorial yesterday that explained why it took so long to finally do a census (opposition from homeless advocates) and the benefits derived from it (better public policy and use of taxpayers's money). My problem with the census is that I don't trust the city and its "volunteers" (they get paid for their one-night's work) to do it right (read: honestly). I think that whatever number they come up with will lack credibility. Homeless advocates and those on the Left will say it is too low despite my suspicion (and others) that it will be inflated. So the census is a good and overdue idea but I have concerns about its execution and what will ultimately be done with that information. As such, it is a wasted endeavour. Wednesday, April 19, 2006
Making up homeless people I was going to start a pool on how many homeless people the army of do-gooders would find tonight in Toronto's first ever homeless senseless, er, census, but I was too busy. Anyway, here's an interesting story on how the numbers will be exaggerated, from Lost Budgie: "On the night of Wednesday, April 19, 2006, some 1,700 volunteers will fan out across Toronto in an attempt to take a census of homeless people sleeping on the streets, in parks and at City of Toronto homeless shelters... ...and waiting for the volunteer census takers will be a small army of undercover investigators, actors and students posing as homeless people for the night. Students will be paid $110 for the night, while professionals will be paid more. But although these "undercover homeless" people are designed to act as "controls" to enable auditing of the census, their very presence threatens to skew the data - because few of them will be alone." (HT: Relapsed Catholic) Why? Liberal nobody Maurizio Bevilacqua is running for the Liberal leadership. Actually, he has been running since the day Paul Martin passed him over for a cabinet post in December 2003 but he made it formal today. But why? He is going to be the candidate of the right in a left-wing party. Was there any clamour for Bevilacqua to run? Was there any massive grassroots movement for a more centrist alternative to the Bob Raes and Carolyn Bennetts seeking the leadership? Destabalizing the Middle East: is that such a bad idea? The Daily Telegraph reports that Prince Saud al-Faisal, the Saudi foreign minister, said of the insurgency and ethnic fighting in neighbouring Iraq: "The threat of break-up in Iraq is a huge problem for the countries of the region, especially if the fighting is on a sectarian basis. This type of fighting sucks in other countries." Is that so bad? Having stable dictatorships is not in the long-term interest of the West as it serves neither the cause of liberty or security, although it might appear to further the latter in the short term. As a friend of mine often says, "Having Muslims killing each other is certainly preferable to having them kill us." It might be precisely what is needed to spur an Islamic reformation. On China Stephen Mosher, president of the Population Research Institute, in a NRO symposium on Red China: "No country that is not facing a serious military threat maintains a 3.2-million-man military, increases its military budget at a double-digit clip well in excess of growth in GNP, and vigorously upgrades its military technology and hardware — unless it intends to use force, or the threat of force, to accomplish certain domestic and international ends." At the Daily Standard, Christian Lowe looks at the "alarming picture of Chinese military progress and a dogged focus on countering American military advances" as painted by the Rand Corporation's study, Rand Corporation Chinese Responses to U.S. Military Transformation and Implications for the Department of Defense. Tuesday, April 18, 2006
No blogging tonight I'll be at the New York Yankees-Toronto Blue Jays game tonight with my 15-year-old son and a friend of his. Should be good. Randy Johnson is pitching for the Yankees although Joe Torre has penciled incompetent fielder Bernie Williams to play leftfield as Hideki Matsui gets a partial evening off to be the designated hitter. Prediction: Yankees 7, Jays 3. Of course, predicting baseball wins and losses is absolutely ridiculous (generally speaking even a pitiful team will one game in any three-game series), but its fun. Monday, April 17, 2006
Church, state and citizen The Ottawa Citizen has a story on Canadian attitudes about the intersection of religion and politics, the tenor of which is that Canadians are deeply uncomfortable with mixing the two. But read a little further and you see a slightly more ambiguous picture. I don't think such ambiguity is all that great, but at least it illustrates that most Canadians don't have a problem with having some religion mixed with their politics. Consider the opening paragraph: "Canadians are becoming increasingly uneasy about mixing religion and politics and they'd be more likely to vote for a party lead by an atheist or a Muslim than an evangelical Christian, suggests a new poll." And now consider this sentence a little further down: "Only 63 per cent of Canadians said they'd vote for a party leader and potential prime minister who is an evangelical Christian, even if they liked the party and its views. That dropped from 80 per cent a decade ago." Now admittedly the number of Canadians who would vote for an evangelical leader is coming down but such a leader's faith is no impediment for the majority of voters. I find it strange that about a third of voters wouldn't for a party and leader with whom they agreed if the leader is an evangelical, but no stranger than many things respondents tell pollsters (in the 1990s at least one poll found that Canadians wanted taxes cut, programs increased and the budget deficit tackled). Apparently the faith of evangelicals warrants the most skepticism about ability to lead because as the Citizen reported about the poll (conducted for CanWest) found: "Canadians appear to be slightly more accepting of a potential prime minister who is a Muslim or atheist. Sixty-eight per cent said they would vote for a candidate in either of those categories, a drop from 74 per cent and 72 per cent, respectively, in 1996." The nearer the bottom of the story you get the more realize that Canadians are not opposed to Christians being active in politics as much as they are divided about the role religion should play in the public square. Only in Canada could you have 39% of respondents agreeing that Christians should be involved in politics to protect their values and 40% say that it is important for "Christian values to play a major role" in politics and have the chattering classes read that as consensus that Canada should be completely secular. Another way to look at these polling results is as a backlash against America. Andrew Grenville, a senior vice-president of the polling firm Ipsos Reid, explained, "It's the U.S. example that has really turned people off." So it isn't anti-religious bigotry that causes some distrust of evangelical politicians but anti-American bigotry. Sunday, April 16, 2006
Happy Easter In terms of history-changing events, there is only one thing that has happened in history that is monumental and which has no comparison -- the death and resurrection of Jesus Christ. As Pope Benedict XVI said at the Easter Mass today: "Today, even in this modern age marked by anxiety and uncertainty, we live the event of the resurrection, which changed the face of our life and changed the history of humanity." On Friday, Pope Benedict offered meditations on the Stations of the Cross, along with prayers, that are extremely rewarding -- and not just during the Easter Season. (Click on the illustration for meditation and prayer.) Pertinent to today is the conclusion of the meditation on the fourteenth Station of the Cross (Jesus is laid in the tomb) "There are times when life seems like a long and dreary Holy Saturday. Everything seems over, the wicked seem to triumph, and evil appears more powerful than good. But faith enables us to see afar, it makes us glimpse the break of a new day on the other side of this day. Faith promises us that the final word belongs to God: to God alone! Faith is truly a little lamp, yet it is the only lamp that can light up the night of the world: and its lowly light blends with the light of a new day: the day of the Risen Christ. So the story does not end with the tomb, instead it bursts forth from the tomb: just as Jesus promised us, it happened, and it will happen again!" Have a Happy and Blessed Easter. Friday, April 14, 2006
The Resurrection The Spectator surveyed a number of politicians, religious leaders and media types about whether or not the resurrection of Christ is a fact. Here are some of the more interesting replies. From the not terribly surprising file is the Speccie's reporting of their attempt to get the Most Revd Dr. Rowan Williams, Archbishop of Canterbury, the head of the Anglican Communion, to affirm a central tenet of Christianity: Thursday. Archishop’s assistant: ‘He’s very busy but I’ll see what I can do.’ Friday. Archbishop’s assistant: ‘I’m afraid we don’t take part in compare-and-contrast surveys.’ The Spectator: ‘But we’re not comparing or contrasting anything. Please at least ask him.’ Monday. The Spectator: ‘Any luck with the Archbishop?’ Archbishop’s assistant: ‘Archbishop Rowan said to put him firmly in the “yes” camp. What were the follow-up questions?’ The Spectator: ‘No follow-up questions. Just the one about the Resurrection.’ Tuesday. Another assistant: ‘I’m afraid there won’t be a [further] quote from the Archbishop. Sorry to let you know so close to the deadline ’ Others were, em, better. Edward Stourton, broadcaster and author, most recently, of John Paul II: Man of History: Yes. I am pretty liberal in most Catholic matters, but I am old-fashioned about the Resurrection, because if it's not true, what's the point? Actually, it's a non-controversial belief. If God intervenes in human history, there is absolutely nothing peculiar about his raising his son from the dead. Mary Wakefield, assistant editor, The Spectator: Yes. It’s much easier to imagine that Christ rose from the dead in just a spiritual or metaphorical sense, but it’s also cowardly. Clifford Longley, broadcaster and regular guest on The Moral Maze: The evidence for the physical resurrection of Jesus Christ which is recorded in the New Testament, and which the Catholic Church bears witness to, is overwhelming. If God is active in history, then nothing is impossible for him. But I do not know how, and I am still trying to work out why. If everything is possible to God, then couldn’t the redemption of humanity have been achieved without the agony, torture and cruel death of Christ in his Passion? I hope one day to understand that mystery a little better, but I do not doubt that it is true. The short reply to Longley's question: man is fallen, he is so far removed from the Goodness and Beauty of God due to his sins that the victory over death by Christ was the only way to win our salvation. And lastly: Cliff Richard: Yes. For me the validity of the Christian faith stands or falls by the Resurrection. If it didn’t happen, then all we’ve got is a code of ethics. Good ones certainly, but we need more than ethics to change lives. Thursday, April 13, 2006
Finally I've been waiting for this ever since Rory Leishman told me about this project several years ago. Finally it's available: Against Judicial Activism: The Decline of Freedom and Democracy in Canada. Here's how his publisher, McGill-Queen's University Press, describes the book: "The Charter and expansive versions of the federal and provincial human rights codes were supposed to safeguard the human rights and fundamental freedoms of Canadians. Rory Leishman argues that this experiment in radical constitutional reform has failed because judicial activists and human rights adjudicators have read their ideological preferences into the law rather than upholding the law as originally understood. ... Leishman argues that the proclivity of judges and adjudicators to change the law from the bench compromises the rule of law, constricts the historic rights and freedoms of Canadians, violates the separation of powers under the Constitution, and subverts the democratic process." Procrastination at the UN (a continuing and repeating saga) Apparently the UN Security Council and the International Atomic Energy Agency are going to let Tehran know they are not pleased with Iran's nuclear program. Maybe. We'll have to wait until the end of the month when the IAEA will report to the Council. Development blogs The World Bank's International Finance Corporation has the Innovations in Emerging Markets blog. The Private Sector Development blog has a comprehensive and potentially productivity-ending (my productivity) list of development issue blogs. Wednesday, April 12, 2006
Repeat: Strong teams will win more high-scoring games New York Yankees beat the Kansas City Royals 12-5. The Yanks are back to 500 ball. Three concerns. 1) Bernie "Can't Catch" Williams played in right field to give Gary Sheffield a break. It worked today but Joe Torre might read that as a vindication of what anyone in their right mind recognizes as a stupid move. 2) Miguel "Low OBP" Cairo started at second base. 3) 2B Robinson Cano, who didn't play today to make room for Cairo, hasn't drawn a walk in 29 at bats. Three bright spots. 1) Bullpen allowed just one baserunner in three innings. 2) Gary Sheffield, taking something of a break in the DH spot today, went 3 for 5 with 4 ribbies and a homerun. 3) The Yankees showed their trademark patience at the plate, drawing eight walks and forcing the Royals to throw 193 pitches. Outrageous tax facts This is from 2003 from the CATO Institute but well worth reading: "10 Outrageous Facts About the Income Tax." Some examples: * There are 562 different IRS tax forms. * "The number of pages in the tax code and regulations doubled from 26,300 in 1984 to 54,846 by 2003..." * There are "hundreds of special savings rules, such as for 401(k)s, Keoghs, deductible IRAs, nondeductible IRAs, education IRAs, Roth IRAs, traditional pension plans, annuities, SIMPLEs, SEPs, MSAs." Whatever the efficacy of such plans, they add a lot of complexity to paying one's income taxes. (HT: Club for Growth blog) Governor Bush endorses Blackwell Ohio Secretary of State Kenneth Blackwell was endorsed by Florida Governor Jeb Bush in his quest to become the GOP's gubernatorial nominee this year. Others who have backed the conservative black Republican include former NFL star and Congressman Jack Kemp, Senator John McCain (Arizona) and governors Rick Perry (Texas) and Mark Sanford (SC). Blackwell is facing Attorney General Jim Petro and his spokesman Bob Paduchik criticized his boss' opponent for "outsourcing" endorsements from out-of-state. That's plain silly. (HT: Sixers) Quote of the day "... it's been at least a year since I last saw a first-run episode of any TV series (not counting cooking shows, which I regard as a species of soft porn)." -- Terry Teachout On Michiko Kakutani On the occasion of Michiko Kakutani's 25th anniversary as a New York Times books columnist/reviewer, Ben Yagoda writes at Slate about the famed critic. Yagoda begins by noting some of the criticism leveled at Kakutani by those she has herself criticized (Susan Sontag, Norman Mailer, Salman Rusdie) and says: "But the sour-grapes sniping from spurned authors should not obscure the fact that Kakutani is a profoundly uninteresting critic. Her main weakness is her evaluation fixation. This may seem an odd complaintÂ?the job is called critic, after allÂ?but in fact, whether a work is good or bad is just one of the many things to be said about it, and usually far from the most important or compelling. Great critics' bad calls are retrospectively forgiven or ignored: Pauline Kael is still read with pleasure even though no one still agrees (if anyone ever did) that Last Tango in Paris and Nashville are the cinematic equivalents of 'The Rite of Spring' and Anna Karenina. Kakutani doesn't offer the stylistic flair, the wit, or the insight one gets from Kael and other first-rate critics; for her, the verdict is the only thing. One has the sense of her deciding roughly at Page 2 whether or not a book is worthy; reading the rest of it to gather evidence for her case; spending some quality time with the Thesaurus; and then taking a large blunt hammer and pounding the message home." Book editors want different things from their reviews and their reviewers but a critic with a regular gig -- heck, Kakutani is on the staff of the Times -- has some leeway. That she is uninteresting anjudgmentalal (in the worst sense of the word) is serious criticism. Those few times that I have agreed with hejudgmentnt of a book I have found the review lacking. She should be studied by journalism students and would-be critics (for J-school is probably not the best way to break into serious criticism of anything) as an example of how not to do it. For, as Yagoda notes, the critic who "merely praises and merely blames" is a boring writer that never seriously diagnoses (C.S. Lewis's word) what the writer is doing. For, as Yagoda again quotes Lewis, "If we are not careful criticism may become a mere excuse for taking revenge on books whose smell we dislike by erecting our temperamental antipathies into pseudo-moral judgments." Tuesday, April 11, 2006
Summing up Berlusconi An editorial in the Daily Telegraph looks at the legacy of defeated Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi: "On the credit ledger of the outgoing prime minister stand his commitment of troops to Iraq (though that won him little credit at home), scepticism about the European Union, pension reforms and an easing of restrictive labour practices. On the far larger debit side have been his preoccupation with passing laws designed to protect himself from conviction in various court cases, failure to resolve the flagrant conflict of interest between his media holdings and his position as head of government, and his miserable economic record." Iran has the nuclear umbrella? The Daily Telegraph reports that Tehran has given a giant middle finger to the rest of the world: "Iran declared yesterday that it had mastered the means of enriching uranium, boasting that 'our enemies cannot do a damned thing' to stop its nuclear ambitions." Well, nothing now. Of course it could be a bluff but with nuclear destruction as the stakes of this international poker game, it's not one that I'd want to call. Most harmful government policies Human Events counts down the 10 most harmful government policies and why. The top three: social security, medicare and income tax withholding. Interestingly, Lyndon B. Johnson signed into law three of the programs, Franklin D. Roosevelt and Herbert Hoover each signed two. Podhoretz on Basic Instinct II 14 years of increasingly decadent movies have made the titillation the original offered seem passe. Here's John Podhoretz in this week's Weekly Standard on Sharon Stone's sequel: "Basic Instinct 2 is beneath discussion except for the change it heralds in moviegoing tastes and, if it's not stretching it too much, American society as a whole since the release of the original film 14 years ago. At the time, Basic Instinct seemed to herald the dawn of a new age of explicit Hollywood moviemaking. But in fact it proved to be the last moment at which it was still possible for mainstream Hollywood to release a film that had the capacity to shock and titillate with its graphic sexuality." The rest of the article is behind the subscriber wall. What a strange story The AP reports that the child custody cops visited Britney Spears but it was no big deal. Then why report on it? If global warming was imminent, like tomorrow ... Here's Tim Worstall at TCS Daily: "In all of the arguments about climate change the two questions that have always loomed largest for me are: how much of it is there likely to be? and what are we going to do about it? If it all ends up being 0.1 degrees Celsius in a century then obviously we don't do much about it and if it's going to be 10 degrees Celsius next week then we'd better get a move on." I'm just wondering about one thing: if the world was going to warm up by 10 degrees in a week, what the heck could we do about it? Wouldn't any policy measure be inadequate in such a case? That's more like it The Yankees beat the Kansas City Royals 9-7, scoring five runs in the eighth to come from behind. Great offensive teams are actually more likely to win more high-scoring games than edge out opponents in many close games. The Yankees, today, are an example of that baseball truism. Procrastination Just for fun I thought I'd check when the UN first starting talking seriously about the need to end the violence in Darfur. The first statement from Secretary General Kofi Annan came September 16, 2004. The 'concern' is 'extreme' From the UN News Service: "The United Nations refugee agency today voiced “extreme concern” over growing insecurity in eastern Chad after a large armed group yesterday entered one of its camps sheltering 17,700 Sudanese who have fled vicious attacks in the Darfur region of their homeland." Jennifer Pagonis, spokesperson for the UN High Commissioner for Refugees, said "We are extremely concerned ... The armed group entered the (Goz Amer) camp in the afternoon during a food distribution. This action clearly frightened the refugees and is of deep concern to UNHCR and its partners." Very concerned so what does the UN do? As the UN News Service noted, "A group of 118 staff from various aid groups, including three staff from UNHCR, were unable to leave the camp, some 95 kilometres from the Sudanese border, but the situation early this morning was reported to be calm and humanitarian workers who had spent the night inside the camp were able to leave." So the going gets tough and the UN wants to get going. But at least they are extremely concerned. Perspective on the Yankees Some facts from the 2-4 opening road trip. The Yankees were thought to have suspect pitching but their 3.04 ERA is the third best earned run average in the majors. Not just the American League but all of baseball. They also produced two "quality starts" (the starter goes six innings or more and gives up three runs or less) in two of their four losses. But they also allowed six unearned runs. And those unearned runs? Blame an old defensive lineup with little range. Blame the run-conceding Derek Jeter who no longer has any right to play shortstop. Why else did they lose? Blame manager Joe Torre who played Miguel Cairo (career on-base percentage of 318 -- 296 last season with the New York Mets) at first base over the more talented Andy Phillips because Cairo has "character" and "speed," never mind that character and speed don't generally win games like getting on base and not giving up outs do. And blame Torre again (and the management) for playing "slow-starting" Bernie Williams at DH. And blame Torre for "saving" Mariano Rivera for save situations that never occurred and therefore denied the Yankees their most effective reliever to get much needed outs earlier in the game. Why will they win? They have so much offense -- A-Rod, Jeter, Hideki Matsui, Jason Giambi, Johnny Damon. Their holes in the offense (Williams at DH; 2B Cano's high batting average, low OBP; a declining Jorge Posada and recovering Gary Sheffield) are greater than expected but if one or two can be addressed hardly insurmountable. And their pitching is what I thought it was: better than most predicted. A week is too small a sample size to make sweeping statements about a team because there are always a series of five to ten games in which every team under- and over-performs. The well-constructed and excellent hitting teams can expect more of the latter. And remember, the Yankees were a sub-500 club at the end of April, eight games under 500 as late as May 6 (11-19). Things change. Last year, they had the best record in baseball after May 6 and won the division. For the Yankees to be better, they should change their manager or he should change his managment style. But a $180 million team is good enough to overcome the manager's absolute incompetence and challenge for the division even if nothing changes. Simpson vs. NCC On the weekend, Globe and Mail columnist Jeffrey Simpson said that the Naitonal Citizens Coalition was not a serious organization. Gerry Nicholls blogged about it here and here (the latter which appear in the Globe today as a letter to the editor). The NCC is not a serious organization? This coming from a colunnist that is always hard to take seriously. The sky is not falling. Or warming As I have often noted, it is folly for conservatives to play green politics because it concedes that the environment is in trouble when it is far from clear that it is. (And if it is, there is little that is practical that can be done to address it, and that instead man should learn to live with climate change or other environmental changes.) Confirming my first argument, from the Daily Telegraph (HT: David Mader): "For many years now, human-caused climate change has been viewed as a large and urgent problem. In truth, however, the biggest part of the problem is neither environmental nor scientific, but a self-created political fiasco. Consider the simple fact, drawn from the official temperature records of the Climate Research Unit at the University of East Anglia, that for the years 1998-2005 global average temperature did not increase (there was actually a slight decrease, though not at a rate that differs significantly from zero)." And just to prove that Kyoto and other drastic (expensive and freedom-curbing) is unnecessary: "Yes, you did read that right. And also, yes, this eight-year period of temperature stasis did coincide with society's continued power station and SUV-inspired pumping of yet more carbon dioxide into the atmosphere." Note to environmental scare-mongers: it is narcissistic to think that man can affect the environment as easily as you say it does. The substance of pens Virginia Postrel writes in Spirit, the in-flight magazine of Southwest Airlines, on pens and about how in an age of mass communication they are returning to their pre-1950s function and place before pens were mass produced. Once again they are, in Postrel's words, an "investment and often emotionally laden memento." If you are anything like me -- I have never been a serious collector of pens (it is an expensive hobby or interest) but I have always been fascinated by them -- it is worth a read. National League 2006 analysis Sorry for the delay. National League East New York Mets --I've changed my mind about the Mets in the last two weeks and think they have enough not only to win the division but win it handily. Indeed, I wouldn't be surprised that if everything fell into place (like it did for the Chicago White Sox last season) they could win 100 games and the World Series. The Mets had serious problems at 1B, 2B and RF and fixed the problem at two of the three positions. The team traded for a monster left-handed bat to provide above average offense from 1B when they acquired Carlos Delgado. Delgado hit 301/399/582 last year for the Florida Marlins and while his power numbers will decline slightly in Shea Stadium, he adds a big bat to the middle of the lineup which will more than makeup for his inadequate defense. They have platoon options in RF after acquiring left-handed hitting Xavier Nady (261, 13 homers in 326 at bats in San Diego last year) and homegrown righty Victor Diaz (257, 12 HRs in 280 at bats in 2005). 2B is still week with underachieving (or over-hyped) Kaz Matsui playing out of position (he's a SS). His defense is well below average as is his hitting (255/300/352). According to Baseball Prospectus, his VORP -- his value over an easily acquired replacement player such as a minor leaguer or major leaguer put on waivers as measured by runs (and it is estimated that every 10 runs equals a win over the course of a season) -- was -1. That is, the average minor leaguer would be an improvement at 2B and he would be a whole lot cheaper than the $8 million they pay Matsui each season. Paul Lo Duca follows in Mike Piazza's footsteps in going from the L.A. Dodgers to the Mets via the Florida Marlins. He has adequate offensive numbers (283/334/380) and is an above average defensive player who really knows how to call a game. The Mets expect a return to form for CF Carlos Beltran. In 2004 he has slash stats (batting average, on-base percentage and slugging percentage) of 267/367/548 with 38 HRs while playing in Kansas City and Houston but only 266/330/414 in his first year in New York. Beltran's history is that his statistics decline every other year and rebound in between. It's a statistically oddity but he should reach base and hit the ball out of the ballpark slightly more often this season than last. LF Cliff Floyd is an under-rated bat: 273/358/505 with 34 HRs. And of course they have the star of the future, David Wright: 306/388/523 with 27 HRs who is constantly improving his defensive play. There is little further maturation required from Wright as all he needs is to fine tune a few aspects of his game such as going to the opposite field. He (and Delgado) will get MVP consideration if the Mets make the post-season. Ideally their leadoff hitter should have an on base percentage above 300 but they like the 60 SBs (most in the NL) of SS Jose Reyes. Until he learns to take a few pitches (27 walks), he should be batting seventh or preferably eighth in lineup because he does not deserve the 696 at bats he received in 2005. They improved the bench through various acquisitions: outfielders Endy Chavez from the Washington Nationals and Tike Redman from the Pittsburg Pirates, power-hitting infielder Jose Valentin from the Los Angeles Dodgers, RBI-producing catcher Ramon Castro, and 1B/pinch hitter Julio Franco (he turns 48 in August) who hit 275 with 9 HRs in 233 at bats with the Atlanta Braves last year. (Valentin is especially useful considering he is expert at hitting high fastballs, the type of pitch hard-throwing closers like to use, a particularly useful skill for a player coming off the bench.) And they already had the seven-position Chris Woodward who hit 283/337/393 in 173 at bats. It is probably the best bench in the NL. Pitching is a less sure thing for the team but still good. They vastly improved their closer, obtaining a real one in Billy Wagner. Wagner has a fastball that reaches 100 mph and he put up great numbers in Philadelphia last season: 38 saves, 1.51 ERA, 0.84 WHIP (walks and hits per inning pitched), 87 Ks in 77.2 IP and a 165 Opp. Avg. (opponent's batting average). That is a vast improvement over imitation closer Braden Looper who left for St. Louis. Other than Juan Padilla (1.48 ERA in 36.1 IP) and Chad Bradford (3.86 ERA in 23.1 IP in Boston last year), the bullpen is not much to write home about. The starting rotation is more impressive, producing the fourth best ERA in the NL in 2005. That's mostly due to Pedro Martinez: 15-8, 2.82 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 208 Ks, 204 Opp. Avg. He once again pitched 200 innings and to keep his fragile body in the rotation they keep his pitch count (and thus IP) lower. He's joined by lefty Tom Glavine (13-13, 3.53 ERA, 1.36 WHIP) and a bunch of decent-enough starters such as Steve Traschel and Victor Zambrano. There are two big question marks: can the team perform under the pressure of high expectations and can manager Willie Randolph actually manage. With the talented bench and questionable bullpen, Randolph will need maximize the effectiveness of his players, including putting Reyes's speed lower in the lineup. Failing to do so in this talented division could cost them a lot. Projection: 95-100 wins Philadelphia Phillies -- The Phillies are a big market team with lots of talent and little to show for it in terms of post-season appearances. Part of that is because the Atlanta Braves have won the division 14 times in a row. Part of it is because all the pieces have failed to come together at once. They may have filled a hole and saved money this year by trading one of their top talents, Jim Thome, to the Chicago White Sox in exchange for centerfielder Aaron Rowland. Rowland offers fantastic defense in center but was a less steady hitter than he was in 2004. Last year he put merely okay numbers: 270/329/407. He joins a potent offense led by SS Jimmy Rollins (290/338/431, 41 SBs), SS Chase Utley (291/376/540 with 28 HRs and a 54.9 VORP), LF Pat Burrell (281/389/504 with 32 HRs) and Gold Glove-winning RF Bobby Abreu (286/405/474, 31 SBs). Joining them for the full season is 1B Ryan Howard who had a monster half-year in Philadelphia after Jim Thome went down to injury, going 288/356/567 with 22 HRs with better than average defense. With strong offensive performances from their middle infield it matters less that David Bell is at 3B. He has a poor OBP (310) and little power (10 HRs) but is good defensively with excellent instincts compensating for a lack of speed. C Mike Liberthal is on the decline (263/336/418) but provides a little more than you would expect from your average 32-year-old catcher. He partially compensates for the fact that he does not call a game very well with a great release and arm strength to get out baserunners. Their bench is strong with Sal Fasano (250, 11 HRs) providing a solid backup to Lieberthal, Jason Michaels playing all outfield positions, and Tomas Perez and Abraham Nunez literally covering all the bases. It's too bad that they didn't also acquire some starting pitching and keep closer Billy Wagner. Their rotation is anchored by Jon Leiber (17-13, 4.20 ERA)) and Brett Myers (13-8, 3.32 ERA), but there isn't much else. The 2005 Phillies were second in the NL in runs scored and but their pitching staff gave up the most runs in the NL East. Their third through fifth starters are well below average: Cory Lidle (289 Opp. Avg), Ryan Franklin (1.44 WHIP) and Gavin Floyd (1.77 WHIP). Most of their bullpen is a wash especially if right-handed Ryan Madson, an improving reliever, moves to the rotation. They also downgraded their closer, losing the excellent and consistent left-handed strikeout machine Billy Wagner and replacing him with 39-year-old Tom Gordon who spent the last two seasons setting up Yankees closer Mariano Rivera. Gordon could be an elite closer. He has three quality pitches (four-seam fastball, a fast curve and a slider) and last year he had great numbers: 2.47 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 203 Opp. Avg. But he might also decline rapidly, especially with the change of leagues. Manager Charlie Manuel will be on the hot-seat as there are high expectations that with better than average defense and hitting and very good power and speed, Philadelphia is due to make a splash in the East. Projection: 86-90 wins Atlanta Braves -- If 2005 taught us anything it was to never bet against the Atlanta Braves winning the division. Most baseball pundits had the Mets or Phillies winning the division and some even had the Braves as low as third. Despite injuries and using a lot of rookies (18), Bobby Cox won his 15th consecutive NL East title. Although the Braves beat the odds and got a lot out of their young players, it is unlikely that they will all replicate their 2005 performances. RF Jeff Francoeur is a good player but unlikely to repeat his excellent numbers from last season: 300/336/549, 14 HRs in 257 at bats. He is an above average defensive player with a cannon for an arm. He will contribute to this team for years to come but last season's excellent numbers are not necessarily indicative of what to expect. They've replaced SS Rafael Furcal with Red Sox reject Edgar Renteria. Furcal has better range and hands (Renteria committed 30 errors last year, most in the majors), speed (Furcal led the majors in SBs) and on-base percentage and slugging percentage. While Atlanta seems keen on the move, Renteria seems to be a significant enough downgrade at the position to hurt the team. Indeed, Furcal's VORP was 42.3 compared to Renteria's 19.6, amounts to a 2.5 additional win advantage for Furcal. 2B Marcus Giles moves to Furcal's leadoff spot and is an merely adequate replacement: 291/365/461. The Braves want 1B Adam LaRouche to respond to full-time work. In 451 at bats last season he hit 259/320/455 with 20 HRs. CF Andruw Jones is vastly over-rated. He hit 51 HRs (impressive) and had 128 RBIs (less so because he was among the major's leaders in rbi opportunities but not in percentage of rbi opportunities capitalized upon). Still, a CF who goes 263/347/575, 52.8 VORP is definitely an asset. As is another Jones, 3B Chipper who hit 296/412/556 with 21 HRs in 358 at bats. The lineup is well-above average almost entirely across the board but if any player regresses or gets injured, the team will be in trouble because of a weaker bench. Catcher Brian McCann is an exceptionally advanced player at 22, a great caller of games combined with decent plate skills: 278/345/400, 5 HRs in 180 at bats. The pitching staff has merely average starters in the third through fifth spots but a pair of aces in the 1-2 spots: John Smoltz (14-7, 3.06, 1.15 WHIP) and Tim Hudson (14-9, 3.52 ERA, 1.35 WHIP). Chris Reitsma is a quality setup reliever but not a real closer but that is the role he will inherit. He had 15 saves, a 3.93 ERA, 1.27 WHIP and cruddy-for-a-closer 272 Opp. Avg. He doesn't strike out a lot of opponents for a closer (42 in 73.1 IP). The bullpen is nothing special but will do the job more often than not. Can Cox work his magic again and coax the most out of all his players. Unlikely. Projection: 85-88 wins Washington Nationals -- They over-performed last season going 81-81 and won't do anywhere near that this year. Young starter John Patterson could become the staff ace. Last year he had very good numbers (9-7, 3.13 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 185 Ks) with four quality pitches. They also have inning eater Livan Hernandez (15-10, 3.98 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, 246.1 IP). The third, fourth and fifth spots in the rotation are just ugly, filled with injured pitchers and minor league prospects with ERAs in the high fours or worse and WHIPs around 1.50. Chad Cordeno will not have the opportunities to save 47 games again this season. The rest of the bullpen is good but not great. Rookie 3B Ryan Zimmerman put up monster numbers 397/419/569 in 58 at bats and the team hopes that is a sign of what is to come. He also plays superb defense. Alfonso Soriano is a player in rapid decline (see last week's analysis on Texas and why they won't miss him) and that was before he became a nuisance in refusing an assignment to the outfield. No patience at the plate, lousy glove, declining power as pitchers learn more about him. The change of league might help in that last regard. But if Soriano has a precipitous decline and Zimmerman doesn't work out, they have no other offense. Last year's most productive bat belonged to RF Jose Guillen: 24 HRs, 76 RBIs, 283 BA. Projection: 70-73 wins Florida Marlins -- Essentially a big-budget minor league team. Florida did better than expected last season (83-79) on the strength of a decent rotation, some strong individual performances, Miguel Cabrera and superb defense. Then this winter they had a fire sale. They got rid of a pair of current or former Gold Glovers -- 3B Mike Lowell and 2B Luis Castillo. They lost their second and third staters (Josh Beckett and A.J. Burnett). They traded their biggest bat (1B Carlos Delgado) to division rivals, the New York Mets, and their leadoff hitter Juan Pierre and his 57 stolen bases to the Chicago Cubs. This is obviously a team that is rebuilding -- or trying to lose so they can move the franchise to another city (San Antonio?). Rookies will start at five positions: RF (Jeremy Heredia), LF (Josh Willington), CF (Chris Aguila), 1B (Mike Jacobs) and SS (Hanley Ramirez). If Dan Uggla eventually dislodges all-glove, no-bat Pokey Reese at 2B, they'll have six rookie position players. Two more rookies could be part of the starting rotation. (To be fair, Jacobs had 100 ABs last season for the Mets going 310/375/710.) He'll join Miguel Cabrera -- the second most productive hitter in the past three seasons in the National League after Albert Pujols -- as the only offensive catalysts. Last year Cabrera hit 323/385/561 with 33 HRs and 116 RBIs. He won't get the ribbies and they might pitch around him, otherwise he'd be considered MVP-worthy. Just as Dontrelle Willis (22-10, 2.63 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 170 Ks) would be considered Cy Young-worthy. But they are the team's only bright spots. Projection: 55-60 National League Central St. Louis Cardinals -- The Cardinals have more missing pieces than they usually do but unless they suffer a few serious injuries, they should be able to win the division and likely the best record in baseball (again). They replaced players who moved on (outfield Reggie Sanders, second starter Matt Morris) with decent replacements (Juan Encarnacion and Sidney Ponson respectively). Morris will be missed even though Ponson is hardly the equivalent player because they have the best and most balanced rotation in the NL. Chris Carpenter rode his 21-5, 2.83 ERA, 213 Ks and 1.06 WHIP to a Cy Young. He has excellent control, with 365 Ks and only 89 BBs over the past two seasons. He is followed by Mark Mulder (16-8, 3.34, 1.38 WHIP), Jeff Suppan (16-10, 3.57 ERA, 1.38 WHIP) and Jason Marquis (13-14, 4.13 ERA, 1.38 WHIP). Ponson is the number five pitcher and he should rebound from a bad season (7-11, 6.21 ERA, 1.73 WHIP with the Baltimore Orioles). The bullpen is solid with closer Jason Isringhausen putting up good numbers (2.14 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 39 saves, 202 Opp. Avg., and 57 Ks in 59 IP) despite losing a few mph on his fastball. They also signed Mets closer Braden Looper to setup and Oakland lefty Ricardo Rincon (carrer ERA of 3.52 in 553 relief appearances) to bolster the pen. SS David Eckstein provides both offense and defense, going 294/363/395 at the plate. The Cards hope that 3B Scott Rolen returns to normal after spending most of 2005 on the DL. Rolen hit 314/409/598 in 2004, slightly above his typical production but repeatable. He is only 31 so last year's 235/323/383 -- he is a walk machine -- is not really much cause to worry. Jim Edmonds wins Gold Gloves in CF while producing some good offensive numbers for his position: 263/385/533 with 29 HRs, 99 BBs and 89 ribbies, and 44.2 VORP. The catching position is mixed bag with Yadier Molina's cannon of an arm gunning down 55% of base-stealers but his bat producing a mediocre line of 252/295/358. And, of course, the team has Albert Pujols, the major league's best hitter: 332/430/609 with 40 HRs, 124 RBIs and 16 SBs and 88.3 VORP. And he's a Gold Glove-winning 1B to boot. Unless something dramatic changes occur due to their relocation to the new Busch Stadium, the Cards should be good to challenge the Mets to be the best team in baseball. Projection: 93-98 wins Milwaukee Brewers -- There are high expecations for the Milwaukee Brewers this year as it hopes to break a streak of 13 seasons without an above 500 record. They were close last year, going 81-81. But competing for the Wild Card depends on three assumptions: the Houston Astros and Chicago Cubs not doing well enough (relatively safe assumptions), the young talent of the Brewers having the kind of seasons (or half seasons) they did last year (a dubious assumption) and rookie 1B Prince Fielder being all that he is hyped to be (a likely but far from sure-bet assumption). First Fielder. The son of Cecil Fielder with a proven track record of hitting (28 HRs in 378 Triple A at bats), the Brewers felt comfortable enough trading good young 1B Lyle Overbay to make room for their prospect. But is Fielder really likely to outperform in his rookie year what Overbay did last season (276/367/449 with 19 homers)? Not likely. Furthermore, while the team's rookie middle infield had a good first season and will likely be a get double play duo with decent offensive numbers for years to come, they are still developing. SS J.J. Hardy hit 308 in the second half to bring his numbers for the year to 246/327/384. He is showed good defensive skills at shortstop and a Gold Glove could be in his future although not yet. 2B Rickie Weeks hit 239/333/394 with with 13 HRs in 360 at bats. A thumb injury caused him to miss part of the season and lower his batting average. He should be good for a small improvement in batting average and on-base percentage. He is erratic in the field, absolutely brilliant at times while missing routine plays at others. Toronto Blue Jay castoff Corey Koskie mans 3B and the team hopes he rebounds from a mediocre season (in which he suffered injuries) of 249/337/398. The outfield is below average but improving. LF Carlos Lee provides the power: 265/324/487 with 32 HRs and 114 RBIs. RF Geoff Jenkins does, too: 292/375/513. CF Brady Clark hit 306/372/426. While both Jenkins and Clark might expect their batting averages to dip slightly, they have good OBPs which mean a fair number of RBI opportunities for Lee and Fielder. C Damian Miller has slightly above average offensive and defensive skills. The pitching is strong at the front-end of the rotation. Ben Sheets is one of the best starters in the NL. Last season he went 10-9 with a 3.33 ERA in 24 starts while striking out 8.55 batters per nine innings. But he has a WHIP of 1.00 over the past three years. Healthy and with a team that can hit behind him, he could win 18-20 games. The team might have the best pair of lefties in baseball: Dough Davis and Chris Capuano. Davis went 11-11 with a 3.84 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 235 Opp. Avg. and 208 Ks. Capuano may be the best pitcher no one has heard of: 18-12, 3.99 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 219 IP. He has three quality pitchers: a slow fastball, a slurve and a changeup. He would be more effective if he could get his fastball up in the 90s. Tomo Okha was acquired from Washington mid season last year and went 7-6 with a 4.35 ERA for the Brewers, a solid contribution from the fourth spot. Dave Bush has decent underlying numbers for a fifth starter: 4.49 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 268 Opp. Avg. The bullpen is good but has question marks. Can closer Derrick Turnbow, picked up on waivers after the 2004 season, repeat on his 39 saves and 1.74 ERA? Can setup man Dan Kolb return to form? Is Matt Wise -- 37 hits allowed in 64.1 IP -- real? The starting five might be the best rotation in the NL outside St. Louis. Offensivley and defensively the team is solid and improving but not quite the calibre to make the playoffs although they will make it close. Projection: 84-87 Houston Astros -- The Astros overcame a 15-game deficit to make the Wild Card, ending on a high note before being swept by the Chicago White Sox in the World Series. But without Roger Clemens (who is likely to retire and cannot return until May if he does come back) and 1B/bench player Jeff Bagwell (perhaps a career ending injury), they will be hard-pressed to win 89 games again. They are still a talented and deep team but they, like the Braves, got the most out of every player last year and any collective (or even individual) regression could spell doom for the team's playoff chances. How much more does Craig Biggio have in him. The 40-year-old hit 264/325/468 with 26 HRs in 590 at bats. He was never a natural infielder (he started off as a catcher) and it shows. Too many of their players suffer from low OBPs: SS Adam Everett (290), LF Jason Lane (316), RF Preston Wilson (325) and CF Willy Tavares (325), although Lane and Wilson have power (26 and 25 HRs respectively). Speedster Tavares is not actually a very good hitter considering he has a 291 BA; he beat out the throw on 70 infield hits. If he hadn't, he would have batted 172. The team gets plenty of production from their infield corners: 1B Lance Berkman (293/411/524, 24 HRs) and 3B Morgan Ensberg (283/388/557, 36 HRs). The Astros so appreciate C Brad Ausmus's defensive and game-calling prowess that they don't worry about his very average offense (258/351/331, 3 HRs in 387 at bats). The bench is thinner without Bagwell and the two key go-to guys Mike Lamb (236/284/419, 12 HRs in 322 at bats) and 2B/OF Chris Burke (248/309/368) have miserable OBP. The team has a pair of aces in Roy Oswalt (high on everyone's list to contend for a Cy Young) and Andy Petite. Together they went 37-21 last season with an ERA under 2.50. Petite allows just 1.09 baserunners per nine innings. They need at least one of their bottom-end starters to break out this year. Lefty Wandy Rodriguez and righties Brandon Backe and Ezequiel Astacio all had ERAs over 4.74 and WHIPs over 1.45. that might give Taylor Buchholz (4.81 ERA in 76.2 relief innings) a chance to make the rotation. The bullpen, however, is fantastic. Brad Lidge, despite his poor post-season, is a strikeout god. His 103 Ks in 70.2 IP helped contribute to his 42 saves, 2.29 ERA, 1.15 WHIP and 223 Opp. Avg. The rest of the bullpen isn't shabby either: Dan Wheeler (2.21 ERA in 73.1 IP), Mike Gallo (2.66 in 36 games) and Chad Qualls (3.28 ERA in 79.2 IP). A strong enough team to play 500 ball or better but would need a few lucky breaks (other teams not living up to expectations, getting surprisingly good performances out of their third and fourth rotation spots, either Clemens or Bagwell returning and making an impact) to make the post-season again. That is a lot of lucky breaks for one team. Projection: 81-84 Chicago Cubs -- Injuries and bad on-the-field management has hurt the Cubs in the two seasons since missing the World Series by five outs in 2003. The dynamic duo of Mark Prior and Kerry Wood spend too much time on the disabled list because Dusty Baker, one of baseball's three worst managers, over-used them in 2003 and 2004. The wear-and-tear on their shoulders might result in them never being 200 inning pitchers in their careers. Wood could be an extremely effective bullpen pitcher but the lack of imagination by Baker rules out that possibility. Still, when healthy, Prior and Wood are among the best pitchers in the game. Prior: 11-7, 3.67 ERA, 1.21 WHIP and 188 Ks in 166.2 IP. Wood: 1.18 WHIP, 77 Ks in 66 IP. Carlos Zambrano is also a great pitcher: 14-6, 3.26 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 202 Ks. Greg Maddux still provides innings (225 IP) but is having mere mortal statistics otherwise: 13-15, 4.24 ERA, 275 opponent's batting average. Righty Jerome Williams or lefty Glendon Rusch make fine fifth starters but if they move up to the fourth and fifth spots due to injuries elsewhere in the rotation the Cubs are in some trouble. The bullpen was inconsistent in 2005. The closer is inadequate with converted starter Ryan Dempster (3.13 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, 33 saves) ending games and blowing save opportunities. Setup man Bob Howry should assume the role: 2.47 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, 191 opponents batting average. Picking up Scott Eyre from the Giants (2.63 ERA and 66 Ks in 68.1 IP) was a great move to provide depth to the bullpen. The less Cubs fans see of the rest of the crew the better (Scott Williamson, 5.65 ERA; Todd Wellemeyer, 6.12 ERA; John Koronko, 7.47 ERA; Rich Hill, 9.13 ERA). The team acquired a genuine leadoff hitter in Juan Pierre although the team will want him to work on his lack of walks (41 in 656 at bats). They have a pair of great hitters in Triple Crown threat 1B Derek Lee (335/418/662 with 46 HRs and 107 RBIs with great defense) and 3B Aramis Ramirez (302/358/568 with 31 HRs, 92 RBIs and improving defense). Aramis has 16 more homers over the past two seasons than any other 3B. They have not gotten the upgrade at RF they expected in picking up Jacque Jones from the Minnesota Twins. Although he had 23 HRs last year, his 249/310/438 is not that impressive and he's a lousy fielder. I also don't like their bench because middle infielder Neifi Perez has to come off of it -- last year he hit 274/298/383, with just 18 walks in 572 ABs. The retirement of Marquis Grissom doesn't help their bench situation, either. The catchers are good: Michael Barret makes up for his inconsistent and sometimes embarrassing defense with solid hitting (276/345/479 with 16 HRs -- best offense for a NL catcher) and backup Henry Blanco is a very good defender. This team would be much more competitive if they fired manager Dusty Baker in the off-season. Proof of his idiocy: he did not consider Lee his team's MVP and decided to replace 2B Todd Walker (305/355/479) with Jerry Hairston Jr., an outfielder who hit 261 last year with no power. Management puts up with his desire to play ineffectual veterans rather than give promising youngsters a chance to get some experience. Baker has the power, not the GM Jim Hendry (who just signed a two-year contract extension) and as long as he does, the Cubs will be mired in mediocrity and underachievement. If Prior and Wood were healthy and the team had a new manager, they could win 90 games. I wouldn't bet on any of the three happening. Projection: 80-82 wins Cincinatti Reds -- This team's good offense is not enough to off-set its atrocious pitching. Eric Milton should recover from a horrid 2005 during which the left-handed free agent pick up went 8-15, 6.47 ERA and 302 Opp. Avg. The combination of homerun friendly Great American Ball Park and his high fastballs led to him giving up 40 dingers. He is still the team's number two pitcher which really sums up their problems. Their number three pitcher is Paul Wilson. He brings nothing more than a 7.77 ERA to the mound with him. The only bright spot in the rotation is Aaron Harang (11-13, 3.83, 1.27 WHIP). Todd Coffey is the closer. Last season, opponents hit 344 off of him and he struck out just 28 batters in 58 IP. His WHIP is 1.64 and his ERA is 4.50. He shouldn't be pitching in the major leagues let alone be trusted with the few leads the Cincinatti Reds will have. The bullpen is shakey but buttressed by veterans such as David Weathers (3.94), Chris Hammond (3.83 with SF Giants last year) and Kent Mercker (3.65). Even a minor regression among them will leave the threesome as the best the bullpen has to offer. Offensively the anchors are CF Ken Griffey Jr. (301/369/576 with 35 HRs) and outfielder-turned-1B Adam Dunn (247/387/540 with 40 HRs, 114 BBs). For the Reds's sake, Dunn better not see his production slip with a change in position. Sometimes defensive changes affect a player's performance at the plate. The Dunn move was made necessary by their trading 1B Sean Casey to Pittsburgh. The middle infield has a little more batting productivity than the typical middle infield (SS Felipe Lopez hit 23 HRs and slugged 486) but 3B Edwin Encarnacion has a miserable OBP (308) with little pop in his bat. The catchers combined for a 268 average with 28 HRs and 110 ribbies. For some reason the team added Tony Womack and his 276 on-base percentage to their bench and his speed (27 stolen bases) might entice manager Jerry Narron to insert his name in the lineup more often than is good for the Reds. Projection: 69-71 wins Pittsburgh Pirates -- This is not the year to end their 13-season losing skid. Other than LF Jason Bay there is not much to be excited about on this team. Their defense is pretty decent but everything else about them is below average: pitching, hitting, power and speed. And former Los Angeles Dodgers manager Jim Tracy is not the man to coach a little extra out of his players considering his Dodgers seldom lived up to expectations. The lack of a dominant pitch means that Zach Duke will never be the kind of elite starter that his rookie numbers indicate: 8-2, 1.81 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 253 Opp. Avg. He struck out just 58 batters in 84.2 IP. Their second starter is Kip Wells who is a combined 13-25 with a 4.87 ERA over the past two seasons. 'Nuff said about their rotation. The bullpen is solid if uninspiring and it will get a lot of time. Their closer Mike Gonzalez has only three career saves but put up decent numbers last year: 2.70 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 58 Ks in 50 IP, 197 Opp. Avg. Robert Hernandez, a closer with the ChiSox in the 1990s, posted a 2.58 ERA, his best since 1997. Their lineup is not much better. Bay put up big numbers: 306/402/559 with 32 HRs, 40 doubles, 101 RBIs and 21 SBs. Other than Bay who is only entering his third season, they have little production at the plate. They acquired RF Jeromy Burnitz from the Cubs (278/322/435 with 24 HRs) and 1B Sean Casey from the Reds (3112/371/423). The teams gets good defense but not much offense from the middle infield: SS Jack Wilson (257/299/363) and 2B Jose Castillo (268/371/423). They infield corners don't give much pop with Casey and Joe Randa (splitting time between SD and Cincinatti) combining for 26 HRs in 2005. Owner Kevin McClatchey vowed to "win" this year but after a 67-95 season -- 36-65 in the last 100 games of last year -- that seems highly unlikely. Projection: 65-68 wins National League West San Francisco Giants -- This team counts on and needs Barry Bonds to be healthy and even if he falls somewhere between a typical Bonds season and mere mortal, he will have a productive season. There are, of course, the off-field distractions (read: allegations of steroid use, pursuing Babe Ruth's homerun record and then maybe Hank Aaron's) that could prove his downfall, but I wouldn't bet on that happening. Furthermore, the Giants did some slight tweaking and are a better team for it. They added Matt Morris from St. Louis to become their number two starter and signed bullpen help in the form of LHP Steve Kline and RHP Tim Worrell. They also acquired bench help in the form of Mark Sweeney (294/395/466) and Jose Vizcaino (246/299/337). Morris joins Jason Schmidt, who had a bad year (12-7, 4.40 ERA, 1.42 WHIP), as their two top starter and youth fills in the rest of the rotation. They don't have a legitimate closer in Armando Benitiz and his 4.50 ERA and 1.37 WHIP. The Giants led the majors in blown saves with 28. Their best reliever, Scott Eyre, signed with the Cubs. The team's middle infield is a mixed bag. SS Omar Vizquez is coming off his 10th Gold Glove-winning season with a 271/341/350 line. 2B Ray Durham is inconsistent with the glove but produced a 290/356/429 line. 3B Pedro Felix is undisciplined at the plate: 102 Ks compared to just 38 walks in 569 ABs for a horrendous 295 OBP. 1B Lance Neikro also has a 295 OBP as does Gold Glove-winning catcher Mike Matheny. By the summer, all three regular outfielders will be 40: Bonds (42), Steve Finley (41) and Moises Alou (40). The Giants acquired Finley and his 271 OBP from the Angels. Fortunately for the Giants, the whole division has big holes in their pitching staffs. They scored nearly a half run less than the league average but Bonds might rectify that if he plays in 100+ games. It won't take much to win the division and SF has the most. But if Bonds returns to the DL or mere mortal numbers after giving up steroids, the team will win a half-dozen fewer games. Projection: 81-86 wins Los Angeles Dodgers -- Last year, the Dodgers started 12-2 but went the rest of the season going 59-89 as they were plagued by injuries and off-the-field distractions. Unfortunately, they've been hit by some injuries already, including their closer Eric Gagne. Still, if everyone returns quickly, in the best case scenario, the Dodgers still can be the best of the bad lot that is the NL West. Even with some injuries this is a team that will be much improved over the 2005 edition. They added some quality players to compensate for players who will be on the DL and, more importantly, got rid of the walking distraction also known as Milton Bradley. But with Bradley gone, their outfield is lackluster. Rightfielder J.D. Drew (286/412/520) is good but might not repeat his 2005 performance. Kenny Lofton, Jose Cruz Jr., Jayson Werth and Ricky Ledee are great to fill out the bench but they will be rotated in the CF and LF positions and are simply not adequate everyday players. Lofton is 38 and unlikely to replicate his 2005 performance in Pittsburg where he went 355/392/420 and was 22 for 25 in stolen base attempts in just 367 at-bats. But at his age I wouldn't be betting that he can deliver such numbers again. The team is taking a chance on injury plagued Nomar Garciaparra, a shortstop, and moving him to first. He is already on the DL but even if he was healthy there is little to indicate that he can play the position. Neither is the same player who won two batting titles in the American League with the Boston Red Sox. With the Chicago Cubs last season he went 283/320/452 with 9 HRs in a half-season's worth of at bats. They have one of the best hitting 2B of all time, Jeff Kent. Despite feuding with team-mates he put up impressive numbers in 2005: 289/377/512 with 29 HRs, 105 RBIs and 100 runs, and a 52.8 VORP. That said, he turns 38 this year. They also added a genuine leadoff hitter in Rafael Furcal: 284/348/429 with 46 SBs. Furcal is a great fielder with an incredible arm. And they brought in Bill Mueller to help at 3B (295/369/430) and he brings World Series experience to a team with few proven winners. Between youngster Dioner Navarro and veteran Sandy Alomar Jr., the team has a decent pair of catchers although they lack pop; together they hit 3 HRs in 2005. The starting rotation is capable of slight improvements or further deterioration: Derek Lowe (12-15, 3.61, 1.25 WHIP), Brad Penny (7-9,3.90, 1.29 WHIP), and Odalis Perez (4.56 ERA, 1.26 WHIP) make a better than average if uninspiring starting three. The team has a slightly above average back end, too: Jao See (8-2, 2.59, 1.11 WHIP as a starter) was let go too easily and given up on too quickly by the New York Mets and Brett Tomko left S.F. for L.A. (8-15, 4.48, 1.37 WHIP but 4-2 and 2.93 in Dodger Stadium over his career). Although the plan was to have Tampa Bay closer Danys Baez set up Gagne, he also provides a nice little insurance policy in case Gagne can't return to the bullpen. Still, the injuries probably mean the Dodgers won't play to their full potential. Projection: 80-84 wins San Diego Padres -- They famously won the division last year in a season in which they needed the final series to make it above 500. They probably over-performed in a weak division so their off-season improvements may not do much for the team. First, however, give credit where credit is due. Starting pitcher Jake Peavy is one of the best pitchers in the NL. In 2004, he led the NL in ERA (2.27) and in 2005 led it in strikeouts (216). He does this with a nice combo of fastballs, cutters and curves and the 24-year-old pitcher might even improve over the next few years. Hard to believe that a 13-7, 2.88 ERA, 1.04 WHIP might not be the best he's got and the Padres need him to carry the team again this year because the rest of the rotation is quite below average. Chan Ho Park will get paid $15 million this year despite having ERAs of 5.91 in Texas and 5.66 in S.D. last season as he won a total of 12 games. Woody Williams (9-12, 4.85 ERA, 1.41 WHIP) turns 40 this year, Shawn Estes (7-8, 4.80, 1.43 WHIP) has never lived up to his potential, and young Chris Young's fastball is not fast enough to over-power hitters. They do, however, have Trevor Hoffman, second on the all-time saves leaders list, closing games. He needs just 43 to overtake Lee Smith as the all-time leader and could do it -- he had 43 last year along with a 2.97 ERA and 1.11 WHIP. Scott Linebrink (8-1, 1.83, 1.06 WHIP, 70 Ks in 73.2 IP) is a great set up pitcher but the rest of the bullpen is suspect at best, a combination of young non-prospects and other team's rejects (Alan Embree who had an ERA in the 7s with Boston and the Yankees). The lineup is a mixed bag. The corners are weak -- largely unproductive veterans Ryan Klesko and Vinny Castillo. The team didn't even try to re-sign the NL's best catcher last season, Ramon Hernandez (290/322/450) as they will replace him with youngster David Ross and Boston import Doug Mirabelli. The bench is plain awful with no one having either more than 75 at bats experience or hitting better than 243. Mark Bellhorn, who was used well by the Red Sox in their World Series-winning 2004 season, can strikeout, walk and hit homeruns, producing a 210/324/357 line. But his high strikeout numbers (112 Ks in 300 at bats) will scare his manager. There are positives. RF Brian Giles led the league in walks (119) that contributed to a great line: 301/403/483 for a VORP of 55.8. Recall, too, that Petco Park sucks up HRs. The rest of the OF is good. Mark Cameron is one of the best defensive CFs and he can hit (273/342/477 with the Mets last season). Obtaining Cameron allows the team to move Dave Roberts and his 275/356/428 line to LF. This team in not comphrensively bad in the way that the KC Royal or Colorado Rockies are, but they aren't a team that will exceed 500 ball either. In fact, if you take away the month of May last season (22-6) they were a very sub-500 team (60-74). They'll reach an unhappy median -- just below 500 ball. Projection: 78-81 wins Arizona Diamondbacks -- The Diamondbacks are well on their way in their rebuilding after their 111-loss 2004 season. Last season they won 77 games and were contenders for the division title. But are they really that close to being a 500 club? Liddy's Baseball Scouting Report has them with "below average" pitching, defense, power and speed and "average" hitting. Even in the weak NL West that isn't enough. There are bright spots. Former Toronto Blue Jay Orlando Hudson is not just the best defensive 2B in baseball but likely the best defensive player in the game today. Brandon Webb has the potential to be a Cy Young winner in the future and he has a killer sinker. RF Shawn Green and LF Luis Gonzalez still produce in the outfield. Green: 286/355/477 with 22 HRs. Gonzalez: 271/366/459 with 24 HRs. But they also lost their most productive hitter, 3B Troy Glaus and their second best bat last year shouldn't even be a regular starter. 1B Tony Clark went 304/366/636 with 30 HRs and 87 RBIs. 3B Chad Tracy is defensively challenged, Craig Counsell returns to the SS position after a year's duty at second, and Eric Byrnes and his atrocious 294 OBP fill the CF spot. Their pitching has some potential but with the exception of Webb (14-12, 3.54 ERA, 1.26 WHIP), its mostly veterans who have never lived up to their top billing. Newly acquired Orlando Hernandez had a 5.12 ERA and 1.46 WHIP for the White Sox and he's battling Russ Ortiz and his 6.89 ERA, 1.84 WHIP and 313 opponent's batting average for the second starter's spot. The other two starters are low strikeout, high WHIP pitchers Miguel Batista and Brad Halsey. The bullpen is worse; last year, it was a NL worst 5.50 ERA. 43-year-old Terry Mullholland (0-2, 4.27 ERA, 1.32 WHIP with the Twins last year) is not the answer may be the most reliable middle reliever. Their closer, Jose Valverde (1.07 WHIP, 211 Opp. Avg., 75 Ks in 66.1 IP), won't get many save opportunities on this team. If they stayed healthy, the pitching provided a surprise or two both at the plate and on the pitcher's mound, this team could be a 500 club. But nobody gets that many lucky breaks even if a few should be expected such as Ortiz having a much better season and Tracy possibly hitting 300 in a full season. But even then they are such a lacklustre bunch that they'd only end up on the cusp of a winning season. Projection: 77-81 wins Colorado Rockies -- No one figures the Rockies can finish anywhere but fifth in the hiddeously weak NL West and for good reason: they are comprehensively bad. 1B Todd Helton won his third straight Gold Glove but had full-season career lows in HRs (20) and rbi (79). Still, he has an impressive 320/445/534 line and 57.9 VORP. The OF of Cory Sullivan, Matt Holliday and Brad Howse collectively has an above average BA, average OBP and mixed slugging percentage. Both of Colorado's catchers have great arms: first-string backstop Yorvit Torrealba threw out 35.7% of basestealers and backup catcher Danny Ardoin threw out 43.9% of them. Furthermore, they cannot but help to improve upon the offense of last year's starting catcher J.D. Closser (219/314/374). No one in the starting rotation has a WHIP under 1.40 and only one had an ERA under 4.87. Aaron Cook who went 7-2 with a 3.67 ERA is the most effective pitcher because of his high groundball to flyball ratio. You'd think Colorado would go out a sign a slew of such pitchers. Oddly, young pitcher Jeff Francis has a home ERA of 4.61 and road ERA of 6.38 so altitude is not completely to blame. The Rockies went out and got bullpen help from St. Louis (Ray King) and Pittsburg (Joe Mesa) and they have closer Brian Fuentes (31 saves, 2.91 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 91 Ks in 74.1 IP). The Rockies were 67-95 last year but 500 after August 1 so there is some optimism in the clubhouse and among fans but they were merely riding the benefit of playing in an extremely weak division. And of the 50 or more pre-season predictions I saw, no more than two or three said they would finish anywhere but last. There is no reason to doubt the wisdom of baseball pundits on this one. Projection: 69-72 wins |