Sobering Thoughts |
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Comments on politics, the culture, economics, and sports by Paul Tuns.
I am editor-in-chief of "The Interim," Canada's life and family newspaper, and author of "Jean Chretien: A Legacy of Scandal" (2004) and "The Dauphin: The Truth about Justin Trudeau" (2015).
I am some combination of conservative/libertarian, standing athwart history yelling "bullshit!"
You can follow me on Twitter (@ptuns).
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Thursday, December 31, 2015
Books of the Year Economics The Inequality Trap: Fighting Capitalism Instead of Poverty by William Watson. The columnist and McGill economist examines inequality but also how the inequality fetishists use the issue as a reason to bludgeon capitalism. One of the best books on politics or economics. Close is The Great Surge: The Ascent of the Developing World by Steven Radelet (which I am in the middle of reading right now) tells the story of the remarkable improvement in well-being for most people in the developing world since the end of the Cold War. That progress is not universal is no reason not to praise that which has already occurred. In the next tier of econ books there are a good number of near-great books. Dani Rodrik's Economic Rules: The Rights and Wrongs of the Dismal Science which argues for going beyond standard models and looking closely at the specifics of a case. It combines both history and autobiography in making the case for economics, warts and all. Who Gets What -- and Why by Nobel-winning economist Alvin E. Roth, describes how markets work. Why Does the Other Line Always Move Faster?: The Myths and Misery, Secrets and Psychology of Waiting in Line by David Andrews uses behavioral economics to explore in detail the ostensibly simple phenomenon of queuing. I love container boxes, so I eagerly anticipated Alexander Klose's The Container Principle: How a Box Changes the Way We Think which is very good but does not match the definitive book on this subject, Marc Levinson's 2008 book The Box: How the Shipping Container Made the World Smaller and the World Economy Bigger; it is better than Rosemary George's 2013 Ninety Percent of Everything: Inside Shipping, the Invisible Industry That Puts Clothes on Your Back, Gas in Your Car, and Food on Your Plate. The Box is a better story (history), but The Container Principle looks more at the ramifications of the trade container boxes make possible. The two go perfectly together, but start with Levinson. Speaking of under-appreciated items, The Undersea Network by Nicole Starosielski vastly exceeded my expectations and held my attention in telling the story of the constant care that the oceanic cable network requires in keeping the continents connecting with telephone and internet. There is another tier of econ books that should be read. Other People's Money: The Real Business of Finance by John Kay explains how finance really works, and it isn't in the service of average folks. Markets without Limits: Moral Virtues and Commercial Interests by Jason F. Brennan and Peter Jaworski is challenging but won't persuade non-believers. Phishing for Phools: The Economics of Manipulation and Deception by George A. Akerlof and Robert J. Shiller was closer to John Kenneth Galbraith than I wanted but both authors deserve to have their books taken seriously. Ditto for Richard H Thaler and his latest, Misbehaving: The Story Of Behavioral Economics, which is too pro-nudge for my liking. Both books have been repeatedly critiqued -- or snarked against -- by Cafe Hayek blogger/George Mason University economist Donald Boudreaux. When To Rob A Bank: And 131 More Warped Suggestions and Well-Intended Rants is a collection of Steven D. Levitt's and Stephen J. Dubner's Freakonomics blog posts. It is not as good as their first two Freakonomics books and covers some of the same material in shorter pieces, but they are worth revisiting. Former Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke's The Courage to Act: A Memoir of a Crisis and Its Aftermath is a suitably revealing memoir. Digital Gold: Bitcoin and the Inside Story of the Misfits and Millionaires Trying to Reinvent Money by Nathaniel Popper is a good overview of the new currency. Ashlee Vance's Elon Musk: Tesla, SpaceX, and the Quest for a Fantastic Future is an interesting as her subject. I have yet to read enough of The Hive Mind: How Your Nation’s IQ Matters So Much More Than Your Own by Garett Jones or get to The Midas Paradox: Financial Markets, Government Policy Shocks, and the Great Depression by Scott Sumner, but I anticipate they'd be on the list once I read them. Math and science I read only two math books in 2015 and they were both excellent: A Numerate Life: A Mathematician Explores the Vagaries of Life, His Own and Probably Yours by John Allen Paulos and The Magic of Math: Solving for x and Figuring Out Why by Arthur Benjamin. The latter has more formula and calculations, the former has more narrative and is therefore more accessible. I read many more science books and the standouts include A Beautiful Question: Finding Nature's Deep Design by Frank Wilczek, which begins with Pythagoras and ends with quantum theory to find the beauty in natural and theoretical science. If it isn't the best science book of the year, it is the most interesting and best-written. Andrea Wulf's The Invention of Nature: Alexander von Humboldt’s New World looks at the work of the famous German naturalist. On the Move: A Life by Oliver Sacks is self-recommending. John Brockman's annual edited symposium of a big question this year tackles What to Think About Machines That Think: Today’s Leading Thinkers on the Age of Machine Intelligence. Most of the contributors are pro-AI. In the next tier are several varied works. Jimena Canales does history and science in The Physicist and the Philosopher: Einstein, Bergson, and the Debate That Changed Our Understanding of Time. Ivan Pavlov: A Russian Life in Science by Daniel P. Todes sings while being informative. The Moral Arc: How Science Leads Humanity Toward Truth, Justice, and Freedom by Michael Shermer. Shermer is a professional atheist and skeptic and his essays and books are always worth reading, but he could have subtitled his book better: "How reason, markets, and democracy lead humanity toward truth, justice, and freedom." I found Lisa Randall's Dark Matter and the Dinosaurs: The Astounding Interconnectedness of the Universe unpersuasive but interesting throughout. Beth Shapiro's How to Clone a Mammoth: The Science of De-Extinction examines both the science and ethics. Two on the environment. Ronald Bailey's The End of Doom: Environmentalism Renewal the 21st Century is good in chronicling the errors of doomsayers, but he concedes too much radical environmentalism in making his semi-libertarian case for a sober-minded environmentalism. A much better book on the topic is Michael Hart's Hubris: The Troubling Science, Economics, and Politics of Climate, in which he challenges the international organizations that push a climate change agenda, the latest efforts by the United Nations and its ilk by which it can advocate a collection of failed policies and discredited ideas which they promoted long before global warming became fashionable. Politics and History There were many political Canadian biographies and autobiographies published this year. Donald Wright did justice to Canada's best historian in Donald Creighton: A Life in History. Kenneth C. Dewar does the same for the left-wing historian and philosopher Frank Underhill and the Politics of Ideas. These may be the finest biographies of Canadian historians, period. Greg Donaghy's Grit: The Life and Politics of Paul Martin Sr. is the best political biography since Paul Litt's Elusive Destiny: The Political Vocation of John Napier Turner, and is a reminder of what has been lost over the past three decades while professional historians were actively ignoring political history. (Which is something neither Creighton nor Underhill were ever guilty of.) John Ibbitson's fair and insightful Stephen Harper is by far the best current politics book of 2015. Norman Hillmer's O.D. Skelton: A Portrait of Canadian Ambition examines perhaps Canada's most important foreign policy bureaucrat. I was looking forward to Mayor Rob Ford: Uncontrollable: How I Tried to Help the World's Most Notorious Mayor by his former chief of staff Mark Towhey and thought I would be reading The Only Average Guy: Inside the Uncommon World of Rob Ford by (my) city councilor John Filion out of obligation. Towhey's was fine, with new details about the inside workings of the mayor's office, but Filion's fair though not uncritical treatment is more insightful. J. Patrick Boyer's The Big Blue Machine: How Tory Campaign Backrooms Changed Canadian Politics Forever is a thorough examination of the personalities involved in advertising and polling that worked in the backrooms to elect Bill Davis in the 1970s and '80s. R. Kenneth Carty's Big Tent Politics: The Liberal Party's Long Mastery of Canada's Public Life is a very academic treatment, but has enough history to make the theory tolerable for a broader audience. Released over the summer, it can help explain why pundits were wrong to write off the Grits after the 2011 federal election and why Justin Trudeau's Liberals are back in government. What Is Government Good At?: A Canadian Answer by Donald J. Savoie looks at how policy decisions are made by bureaucrats and the executive, leaving out ordinary citizens in the process. A Subtle Balance: Expertise, Evidence, and Democracy in Public Policy and Governance, 1970-2010 edited by Edward Parson examines the conflict between the pull of sound policy decided on evidence and science on the one hand and the pull of politics, including the desire for democracy and transparency, on the other. The Constitutions That Shaped Us: A Historical Anthology of Pre-1867 Canadian Constitutions edited by Guy Laforest, Eugénie Brouillet, Alain-G. Gagnon, and Yves Tanguay is precisely what the title promises and you'll enjoy it if that kind of book interests you. Douglas Farrow's Desiring a Better Country: Forays in Political Theology is a timely and intelligent guide for the religiously minded to navigate an increasingly secular and hostile public square. Escape from the Staple Trap: Canadian Economy after Left Nationalism by Paul Kellogg challenges the standard narrative of Canadian economic history that our development depending on the export of staples such as fur, fish, forests, and other natural resources. Escape from the Staple Trap does what the best books do, namely challenge the conventional wisdom, even if it is not necessarily persuasive, and in a year of good Canadian non-fiction, this may be the best. I would be remiss if I did not mention my own, The Dauphin: The Truth About Justin Trudeau. It was a very good year for Canadian political and history books considering that a book as good as Christopher Moore's The History of Canada Series: Three Weeks in Quebec City: The Meeting That Made Canada doesn't make the list of top books in this genre. A half year before Team Trudeau was talking about "sunny ways" in Canadian politics, The Conservative Heart: How to Build a Fairer, Happier, and More Prosperous America by Arthur Brooks makes the case for a narrative-based, optimistic vision of conservatism, which he claims (without evidence) will be easier to sell to Americans than the pessimism being peddled by Republicans in recent years. It would stand out as a good U.S. political book even in years not lacking in must-read American political books. The only other very good book about US politics was American Burke: The Uncommon Liberalism of Daniel Patrick Moynihan by Greg Weiner on the former senator's "Burkean liberalism." There are few North American politicians whose ideas deserve serious consideration but Weiner does a great job examining Moynihan's thought, in both writing and action. I did not read a lot of other American political books but collections of previously published material by both P.J. O'Rourke (Thrown Under the Omnibus: A Reader) and Peggy Noonan (The Time of Our Lives: Collected Writings) reward the re-reading. Some general political/history books. The Upright Thinkers: The Human Journey from Living in Trees to Understanding the Cosmos by Leonard Mlodinow is the outstanding story of human progress. Harry G. Frankfurt's short (89-pages), philosophical take On Inequality finds that inequality hand-wringers are misguided. And Yet ... is a collection of essays from the late Christopher Hitchens which reminds us of how much we miss heterodox left-wing writers such as him in 2015, not to mention such literate and literary political writers. The Great Divide: Why Liberals and Conservatives Will Never Agree by William D. Gairdner takes the worldviews of Left and Right seriously, and describes why attempts at political conversation fail. I didn't read many international history or politics books and few stood out as must-reads, but the one that does is The Almost Nearly Perfect People: Behind the Myth of the Scandinavian Utopia by Michael Booth, which is both fun and informative, combining history, current politics, and culture. It is full of interesting anecdotes. One of the five best books of the year. Richard Bourke's Empire and Revolution: The Political Life of Edmund Burke makes contributions to the growing body of Burkean scholarship and popular books in recent years; it may have been rated higher if it weren't the fourth (or fifth) book about the Irish statesman in recent years. S.P.Q.R.: A History of Ancient Rome by Mary Beard is a thorough history of arguably the west's most important city that debunks many myths. It's fault is that it sometimes imposes 21st century political fashions and judgments on its two millennia-old subject. (S.P.Q.R., BTW, is the abbreviation of "The Senate and People of Rome.") I was not expecting to like Will Ferguson's Road Trip Rwanda: A Journey Into the New Heart of Africa but it is a highly readable account of the horror and recovery of the genocide-plagued African country. On the politics side, Disruptive Power: The Crisis of the State in the Digital Age by Taylor Owen looks at how technology has enabled revolutions, both political and cultural. Sports Joseph Esptein's collection, Masters of the Games: Essays and Stories on Sport is the best general sports book, and it covers whatever fancies the essayist from Joe DiMaggio to Michael Jordan. Non-sports fans will appreciate his style and erudition. There are three must-read football books, all focusing on a team and an era. The Color of Sundays: The Secret Strategy That Built the Steelers Dynasty by Andrew Conte shows how the Pittsburgh Steelers became a dominating force in '70s football by aggressively integrating their team. Mike Siani's Cheating Is Encouraged: A Hard-Nosed History of the 1970s Raiders confirms everything bad you thought you knew about Al Davis's team. There are plenty of biographies of Washington Redskins players but Hail to the Redskins: Gibbs, the Diesel, the Hogs, and the Glory Days of D.C.'s Football Dynasty by Adam Lazarus looks at the under-rated 1980s Skins team(s). Controlled Chaos: Chip Kelly’s Football Revolution by Mark Saltveit is now timely following the Philadelphia Eagles firing of their coach, but Kelly's innovations are good for football because it makes the game even more exciting. We need to separate Kelly's insights from his character, and hope more coaches follow his example on the field. Pat Kirwan has updated his excellent book on football strategy with Take Your Eye Off the Ball 2.0 which reminds fans that there is a lot happening that does not involve the guy with the ball. I was thinking this wasn't a great year for baseball books (again) but looking at my shelf, I realize that I am misremembering. On top of my mind was Big Data Baseball: Math, Miracles, and the End of a 20-Year Losing Streak by Travis Sawchik about the 2013 Pittsburgh Pirates. In a just world, it would be the new Moneyball. I prefer team histories in football and player biographies in baseball. 2015 was better than I remember with Billy Martin: Baseball’s Flawed Genius by Bill Pennington which examines both the genius and the flaws and Gil Hodges: A Hall of Fame Life by Mort Zachter topping the list. Norman Macht's The Grand Old Man of Baseball: Connie Mack in His Final Years, 1932-1956 is the second volume of the biography of a manager and owner whose half-century in baseball merited a two-volume bio. There were two biographies of Ty Cobb, a great hitter but not so great person: Ty Cobb: A Terrible Beauty by Charles Leerhsen and War on the Basepaths: The Definitive Biography of Ty Cobb by Tim Hornbaker. Both try to go beyond the standard Cobb story, and they both just manage to do that. One of the better team histories in recent years is Finding the Left Arm of God: Sandy Koufax and the Los Angeles Dodgers, 1960-1963 by Brian M. Endsley. This is not a biography -- Endsley has already written the Koufax bio -- but the second volume of the three-part history of the Dodgers in the Koufax era. If you read the biography and think you don't need to read the books you might be correct but if you're a fan of the Dodgers or '60s baseball it is rewarding. Charles Fountain's The Betrayal: The 1919 World Series and the Birth of Modern Baseball goes far beyond what happened in the Black Sox scandal to examine its legacy. Knuckleball: The History of the Unhittable Pitch by Lew Freedman should have had more science but it is subtitled "the history of." A History of Cuban Baseball, 1864-2006 by Peter C. Bjarkman is thorough in what the title promises. In Pursuit of Pennants: Baseball Operations from Deadball to Moneyball by Mark L. Armour and Daniel R. Levitt examines the business of building winning teams. The authors focus on four teams from different eras -- the 1936 Yankees, the 1963 Dodgers, the 1975 Reds, and the 2010 Giants -- to assess organizational priorities in constructing winning teams. This is a very good "front office" book about baseball. Three decades ago, John Thorn and Pete Palmer wrote The Hidden Game of Baseball: A Revolutionary Approach to Baseball and Its Statistics, which did more than anyone not named Bill James to lead the sabermetric revolution in baseball; it was reissued and justly so. I'm still undecided in how much I trust Jon Pessah's The Game: Inside the Secret World of Major League Baseball’s Power Brokers, the story of the power struggle between MLB and the players union for control of the game -- not just its money -- in the 1990s. The Pine Tar Game: The Kansas City Royals, the New York Yankees, and Baseball’s Most Absurd and Entertaining Controversy by Filip Bondy looks at an iconic moment in baseball history. There were also plenty of subpar or merely decent baseball books. Miscellaneous Thirty Million Words: Building a Child's Brain by Dana Suskind provides both the studies that prove the importance of talking to one's child and how to do it better. This child development book has both parental and policy implications, and is one of the five most important books of the year. The Evolution of Everything: How New Ideas Emerge by Matt Ridley describes the bottom-up process (evolution) by things are created, as opposed from the top-down (design). The Road to Character by David Brooks can be too cute at times, but his book on the need to inculcate "eulogy virtues" rather than "resume virtues" is a non-moralizing treatment of the need for more virtue in individuals. The "climate change" encyclical by Pope Francis has dubious economics and problematically suggests that Catholics should accept climate change orthodoxy, but Laudato Si: On Care for Our Common is mostly about human ecology and that 80% of the book is as beautiful as the other 20% is misguided. The environmentalists forget that human beings are part of creation and Pope Francis reminded us that created in God's image, human beings are the most important part of creation. Jonathan V. Last edited two volumes, The Dadly Virtues: Adventures from the Worst Job You'll Ever Love and The Christmas Virtues: A Treasury of Conservative Tales for the Holidays, that provide humorous takes on fatherhood and Christmas respectively from such conservative writers as P.J. O'Rourke, Rob Long, David Burge, Andrew Ferguson, Larry Miller, Jonah Goldberg, and Stephen Hayes, among others. Thoroughly enjoyable and perfect for snippet reading although they are difficult to put down. Mass Disruption: Thirty Years on the Front Lines of a Media Revolution by John Stackhouse dissects what's wrong (and right) with the Canadian media and the challenges both newspapers and broadcasters face. Much more engaging than Crash To Paywall: Canadian Newspapers and the Great Disruption by Brian Gorman, which I didn't finish. These two books cover much of the same terrain. Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction by Philip E. Tetlock and Dan Gardner manages to be enthusiastic and sober-minded about a trendy topic. David Whyte's Consolations: The Solace, Nourishment and Underlying Meaning of Everyday Words is a playful, philosophical examination of 52 words. A must-own for word-lovers. Step Aside, Pops is Kate Beaton's second volume of comics. I'm not convinced that progressives should like her as much as they do or that conservatives should eschew her as they do; that's one way of saying she's 1) probably misunderstood and 2) doesn't easily fall into neat political categories. I can say with confidence that once it arrives and I read Russell Kirk: American Conservative by Bradley J. Birzer that it would be a top book of 2015. I am realizing that I read almost nothing on music, art, or culture that is worth noting. (Can that be right or am I missing/forgetting it?) I haven't gotten to Sam Phillips: The Man Who Invented Rock 'n' Roll by Peter Guralnick. The best seven books of 2015 in no particular order: The Inequality Trap, The Great Surge, Thirty Million Words, Grit: The Life and Politics of Paul Martin Sr., Donald Creighton: A Life in History, The Almost Nearly Perfect People, and The Evolution of Everything. I should make a list of books from 2015 that you should avoid or were disappointing. Ambrose interview with Maclean's Conservative interim leader Rona Ambrose talked with Maclean's and while it is what you would expect there are three noteworthy items. In her first answer to John Geddes, she says: So when I talk about that, I talk about our opposition to big government, big spending, high taxes and high deficits, but I also talk about intrusive government. We can do more, you know, in terms of talking to Canadians about their individual liberty. I’m a libertarian, I come from that part of the conservative movement. But I think there are a lot of things that we stand for when it comes to personal liberty that are attractive to a lot of young people in this country. First, I hope this is true but I haven't seen a lot of evidence of this critique of the Trudeau government's agenda. Second, does Ambrose now support rescinding parts of The Anti-terrorism Act, 2015 (C-51)? Ambrose also sort of denies she's interested in the full-time leadership, saying she would not step aside to run for permanent leader. Ambrose insists she likes the interim job and preparing the party for the next leader, but there is a technicality in her response. Asked "would you consider stepping aside as interim leader and throwing your hat in the ring?" Ambrose says, "No, it’s not an option for me personally. I’ve given my commitment." She won't step aside, but she could ask the party to change its rules at the next national convention to permit interim leaders to run for permanent leader. I doubt she would, but her denials leave that possibility open. There is also one answer that I'd expect but from what I hear from Conservative strategists and staffers in Ottawa, does not appear to be true. When asked about the Conservative Party's organizational capacity -- fundraising, voter ID, GOTV, etc... -- Ambrose says: I can tell you is that, as the interim leader, one of my goals is to work with the party to make sure we have the right infrastructure in place so that, when the new leader is chosen, he or she can actually just get out and campaign and take advantage of all the good work that we’ll do over the next 18 months or a little longer. She says her "goal" is to rebuild the party's infrastructure, but from what I hear that isn't being done. While four years seems like a long time, there are things that can be done today that aren't. Neither her nor the party, I'm told, is actively engaged in data-mining to identify possible voters with buyer's remorse. Many people who would normally be involved in these projects complain to me that none of what is needed to rebuild is being done and that, in fact, these things are actively and consciously not being done as the interim leader and party executive wait for the spring convention and the election of a new national council. My sources may no longer be "in the know" but Ambrose's comments about rebuilding the party organization is at odds with many insiders' impressions. Trudeauopia Tax increases will be a reality at all three levels for a while because Justin Trudeau is going to sing the praises of the state and increase trust in government.
Most-read Marginal Revolution posts of the year Worth revisiting: "The Top Ten MR Posts of 2015" (as decided by page views). No end to the libertarian moment Writing for the Daily Beast, Nick Gillespie says that the failure of Rand Paul to take off in the Republican presidential primaries is hardly an indication of the end of the libertarian moment: It’s not about the White House, for sure, but about “comfort with and demand for increasingly individualized and personalized options and experiences in every aspect of our lives.” As Matt Welch and I argued in our book, The Declaration of Independents, politics is a lagging indicator of where America is headed. It will be the last area of our lives to be transformed, but you can already see the old order breaking down. As Gillespie says, political reporters are always declaring libertarianism dead. Team Trudeau has won over Gerry Nicholls Gerry Nicholls has a long piece on "How I Stopped Worrying and Learned to Love the Trudeau Hype." Nicholls concludes: So yeah, no more negativity on my part.And if at any point I should ever doubt Trudeau’s superficial, but fun-loving ways, I’ll just recite those awesomely profound and deeply inspirational words: “Canada’s back” “Because it’s 2015”, “Sunny ways.”Hooray for pop idol politics! Wednesday, December 30, 2015
2016 watch (Donald Trump edition) In his 14th visit to South Carolina, Donald Trump said, "If I don’t win, I will consider this a total and complete waste of time." His, and everyone else's. And on Twitter, Trump said that Bill Clinton can't help his wife if the Donald and HRC face each other in the general election: "If Hillary thinks she can unleash her husband, with his terrible record of women abuse, while playing the women’s card on me, she’s wrong!" He's wrong, because having the media onside can help a lot. 'The Year in Blame Shifting' Jacob Sullum looks at blame shifting -- or at least lame excuses -- from cops to presidents and presidential candidates. Tuesday, December 29, 2015
Congress limits policing for profit The Wall Street Journal editorializes praises the Congressional budget requirement that the Department of Justice must "stop rewarding state and local cops for seizing the assets of private citizens" by ceasing the practice of "equitable sharing payments." The Journal notes of the practice of civil asset forfeiture: The feds have also been sharing the seized assets with state and local law enforcers for helping to separate citizens from their property. Even if an activity wasn’t illegal under local law, the locals could still get a cut under the federal “equitable sharing” program. Yes, this is bad for seizure victims. But also for setting enforcement priorities. Local police are supposed to serve their communities, not chase federal payouts to pad their budgets. Politicians rarely do the right thing. They have this time. 2016 watch (Ben Carson edition) Commentary's Noah Rothman says that Ben Carson's handling of a campaign shakeup indicates that he is not ready for the presidency. Yes, the campaign hit the skids as the Wall Street Journal recently reported and needed to change (or shut down, but the candidate isn't ready for that yet). Yes, the campaign team seems more interested in lining their pockets than getting Carson elected as the GOP presidential nominee, as the Journal article suggests. But Carson shouldn't have announced changes without first talking to his top staff about it; throwing them under the bus and catching them off-guard is not presidential. Uber is safer than taxis for drivers The Federalist reported: Uber’s post-ride electronic payment and rating system remove cash and anonymity, which makes the trips safer for both drivers and passengers. Surprisingly, even with the requirement to accept credit cards, around 45 percent of taxi trips were paid for with cash last year, according to TLC data. This is one reason why the homicide rate for taxi drivers is 20 times higher than the U.S. average and more than double rate for police officers. (HT: Manhattan Institute on Twitter) Defending lying. #BecauseIts2015 Thomas Sowell: Lying, by itself, is obviously not new. What is new is the growing acceptance of lying as "no big deal" by smug sophisticates, so long as these are lies that advance their political causes. Many in the media greeted the exposure of Hillary Clinton's lies by admiring how well she handled herself.Lies are a wall between us and reality — and being walled off from reality is the biggest deal of all. Reality does not disappear because we don't see it. It just hits us like a ton of bricks when we least expect it. Sowell's examples include Republicans and Planned Parenthood funding, black activists and cops, and Hillary and everything. Monday, December 28, 2015
WTF rebrand The Guardian reports that the World Taekwondo Federation is considering a rebrand because the slang abbreviation is not something with which they want to be associated. Remember what is unsaid in this tweet The most admired by different people.
Best books, articles, and studies in psychiatry and mental illness David Gratzer's final "Reading of the Week" looks at the best books, articles, and studies on mental health issues in 2015. Gratzer says: "It wasn’t that long ago that we hoped that discussion of mental illness would move out of the shadows. Today, slowly but surely, it is. And so, 2015 closes after 48 Readings and on this hopeful note." And rather than just list them, he categorizes them under categories such as "The Paper That I Wish Everyone Read," "The Recommendations That I Wish Everyone Read," "The Paper That Will Change Practice," and "The Paper That Will Change Practice." I'd add one late entry that Gratzer hasn't considered: "The blog post that would be a helpful reminder to everyone" which is Scott Alexander's "How Bad Are Things" at Slate Star Codex. Alexander reminds readers that while statistics suggest improving well-being overall, there are still people who are suffering due to mental illness. Alexander, who is a psychiatrist, writes: This is part of why I get enraged whenever somebody on Tumblr says “People in Group X need to realize they have it really good”, or “You’re a Group X member, so stop pretending like you have real problems.” The town where I practice psychiatry is mostly white and mostly wealthy. That doesn’t save it. Alexander's piece does not contradict the Arthur Brooks column on victimhood noted earlier today. Is Tinder good for society? Tyler Cowen says Tinder enables assortative mating -- "You use Tinder in bars, venues, and neighborhoods you have chosen" -- and because Tinder should make it more likely individuals go out, it likely increases assortative mating which can be good: In sum, I expect Tinder to boost assortative mating, at least at the top end of the distribution in terms of IQ and education.And please note, I suspect this increase in assortative mating is a good thing. The abilities of top achievers have a disproportionate impact on the quality of our lives, due to innovation being a public good. 'Weak currencies have smaller effects on exports' Interesting article in the Wall Street Journal that describes why "A shift in trade dynamics is blunting the impact of a weak local currency." Because of global supply chains, there are more imports being used in the manufacture of exported goods, therefore lessening the impact of weak currencies. The problem with victimhood culture Arthur Brooks in the New York Times: So who cares if we are becoming a culture of victimhood? We all should. To begin with, victimhood makes it more and more difficult for us to resolve political and social conflicts. The culture feeds a mentality that crowds out a necessary give and take — the very concept of good-faith disagreement — turning every policy difference into a pitched battle between good (us) and evil (them). Brooks notes that it is a fine line between fighting for victims and promoting victimhood, and offers two suggestions for delineating between the two: First, look at the role of free speech in the debate. Victims and their advocates always rely on free speech and open dialogue to articulate unpopular truths. They rely on free speech to assert their right to speak. Victimhood culture, by contrast, generally seeks to restrict expression in order to protect the sensibilities of its advocates. Victimhood claims the right to say who is and is not allowed to speak.What about speech that endangers others? Fair-minded people can discriminate between expression that puts people at risk and that which merely rubs some the wrong way. Speaking up for the powerless is often “offensive” to conventional ears.Second, look at a movement’s leadership. The fight for victims is led by aspirational leaders who challenge us to cultivate higher values. They insist that everyone is capable of — and has a right to — earned success. They articulate visions of human dignity. But the organizations and people who ascend in a victimhood culture are very different. Some set themselves up as saviors; others focus on a common enemy. In all cases, they treat people less as individuals and more as aggrieved masses. 2016 watch (Jim Webb edition) John Fund wonders if Jim Webb's shots against Hillary Clinton over foreign policy is prelude to a third-party run. Me: media speculation about Republicans or Democrats turning into third-party or independent candidates is usually over-rated. Admittedly, Webb has already dropped out of the Democratic primary, but that doesn't mean he's eyeing a spoiler presidential run. Perhaps his critique of HRC's handling of Benghazi is merely a way to keep Webb in the news. And sometimes a Facebook post is just a Facebook post. Sunday, December 27, 2015
Austerity for thee but not for me The Toronto Star: "Quebec politicians mulling pay hike from $90,000 to $140,000." Jean-Marc Fournier, the government House Leader, argues that it will be revenue neutral for taxpayers because of other changes: Fournier says eliminating $16,000 in tax-exempt earnings, boosting the share of politicians’ pension contributions to 41 per cent from 21 per cent, cutting certain allowances and making changes to collective insurance would offset any such pay hike. Maybe, but the optics are not good: "Quebec’s proposed move comes amid austerity measures and deep cuts that have affected the public as well as during tense labour negotiations with government employees." Economists lack imagination Scott Sumner lists several items of economic conventional wisdom -- voting is illogical, buying lottery tickets is foolish, buying gifts is inefficient, smoking is inefficient -- and counters with suggestions in which utility is maximized in ways that the CW does not appreciate. It isn't that the "utility maximizing" model is incorrect but that economists define utility too narrowly. For example, while the odds of winning the lottery are long (and therefore it is a foolish investment), "people with dreary lives might get utility from buying a little bit of hope for the future" -- in other words, the purchase price of the ticket provides enjoyment in itself. Manitoba election shakeup The Winnipeg Free Press reports that a Probe Research poll has the Manitoba Progressive Conservatives at 43%, Liberals at 29% and governing NDP at 22%. This would suggest the Brian Pallister-led Tories winning the April election, and probably with a majority government. But that might not be a safe prediction. As the Tories surge, especially this early, it will change the party strategies and voter behaviour. We shouldn't rule out the possibility of the Liberals winning. If this sounds bizarre, one only needs to look at the May 2015 Alberta election when the NDP won a majority. The last time the Manitoba Liberals won more than three seats was 1990 and the last time they finished second was 1988 (20 of 57 seats0. The haven't formed government since 1953 (as the Liberal-Progressive Party). Saturday, December 26, 2015
The Creba effect The Toronto Star has a long article, "The Jane Creba effect: 10 years later, veteran detectives reflect on a case with profound impact." I've been referring to Creba effect for a decade, but in politics, not as related to law enforcement. The murder of a teenage girl in the Toronto downtown had, I've argued, a political fallout. Prime Minister Paul Martin joined Mayor David Miller in calling for getting handguns off the street while Conservative leader Stephen Harper said it was time to get tough on crime and punish violent offenders. This local crime story made national news. While the pundits at the time focused on Adscam and on the Conservatives unveiling a set of policies early in the campaign and message discipline, as well as the announcement of an RCMP investigation into Ralph Goodale's finance ministry, to explain how the Conservatives won a minority government ending 12 years of Liberal rule, few columnists considered how voters reacted to Creba's shocking murder and the political reaction to it. Tax reform Writing in the Wall Street Journal, the Hoover Institute's John H. Cochrane outlines what real tax reform would look like for the United States: drop the corporate tax, tax consumption instead of income, simplify taxes. Of course, if there were no corporate or income taxes, it would be difficult to embed subsidies in the tax system. That's why I think Cochrane is wrong to conclude: "We should also agree to separate the tax code from the subsidy code. We agree to debate subsidies for mortgage-interest payments, electric cars and the like—transparent and on-budget—but separately from tax reform." Still, the actual economic part -- as opposed to his political advice at the end -- is worth listening to. Our Lady of Legos
Friday, December 25, 2015
Christmas "In those days Caesar Augustus issued a decree that a census should be taken of the entire Roman world. (This was the first census that took place while Quirinius was governor of Syria.) And everyone went to his own town to register. So Joseph also went up from the town of Nazareth in Galilee to Judea, to Bethlehem the town of David, because he belonged to the house and line of David. He went there to register with Mary, who was pledged to be married to him and was expecting a child. While they were there, the time came for the baby to be born, and she gave birth to her firstborn, a son. She wrapped him in cloths and placed him in a manger, because there was no room for them in the inn. And there were shepherds living out in the fields nearby, keeping watch over their flocks at night. An angel of the Lord appeared to them, and the glory of the Lord shone around them, and they were terrified. But the angel said to them, 'Do not be afraid. I bring you good news of great joy that will be for all the people. Today in the town of David a Savior has been born to you; he is Christ the Lord. This will be a sign to you: You will find a baby wrapped in cloths and lying in a manger.' Suddenly a great company of the heavenly host appeared with the angel, praising God and saying, 'Glory to God in the highest, and on earth peace to men on whom his favor rests.' When the angels had left them and gone into heaven, the shepherds said to one another, 'Let's go to Bethlehem and see this thing that has happened, which the Lord has told us about.' So they hurried off and found Mary and Joseph, and the baby, who was lying in the manger. When they had seen him, they spread the word concerning what had been told them about this child, and all who heard it were amazed at what the shepherds said to them. But Mary treasured up all these things and pondered them in her heart. The shepherds returned, glorifying and praising God for all the things they had heard and seen, which were just as they had been told." Luke 2: 1-20 Thursday, December 24, 2015
The Wall Street Journal's Christmas editorial It is an annual WSJ tradition to publish Vermont Royster's excellent Christmas column. It concludes: Stand fast therefore in the liberty wherewith Christ has made us free and be not entangled again with the yoke of bondage. Wednesday, December 23, 2015
Provincial debt and credit rating downgrades Very good article by Trevor Tombe and Blake Shaffer at Maclean's on provincial debt, explaining how, precisely, it works. Five, mostly related, takeaways. 1) It is easy to overstate the impact of credit rating downgrades, although their impact on provincial budgets aren't "chump change." 2) The downgrade may already be reflecting in the cost of borrowing because the ratings agencies are merely recognizing what the market already accounts for; that is, the fiscal situation which the downgrade implicitly condemns, is already built into the costs of bonds. 3) The bond market accounts for the moral hazard problem that the federal government will step in to rescue provinces with excessive debt. 4) Downgrades can affect future borrowing costs when current bonds mature and need to be rolled-over. 5) Permanent deficits are (still) a "risky" and "unnecessary" policy choice. The political lexicon is expanded I want to thank Donald Trump for adding "schlonged" to the American political lexicon. I wish William Safire was still alive and writing his language column. Tuesday, December 22, 2015
Causes of death Gun deaths are stable, drugs and motor vehicle deaths trend in opposition directions. Chart in Marginal Revolution post, discussion in the comments section. 2016 and 2052 watch (Clinton edition) Chelsea Clinton is expecting their second child, who will be eligible to run for president in 2052 (the same year as his/her older sister, Charlotte). In more immediate news, Hillary Clinton can be further humanized as a grandmother during the formal presidential campaign between Labour Day and Election Day (she has been highlighting her grandmother status already this campaign). 2016 watch (How the GOP race is shaping up) I agree with Mark Steyn's analysis: Ted Cruz has held his narrow lead in Iowa and moved into second place in New Hampshire. It is the fashion to say that it's now a four-man race - Trump, Cruz, Rubio, Carson - but even that may be overstating things: Carson is in steep decline, and Rubio appears to have plateaued. So we may be down to Trump, Cruz and whichever "establishment" candidate survives New Hampshire (Rubio or Christie). 2016 watch (The Donald edition) Investor's Business Daily editorializes: "Trump's Praise For Putin Shows His Ego Is A Security Risk." IBD says: A commander in chief so susceptible to flattery would be a security risk ..."The Code of the Trumps" apparently demands that anyone — even a murderous tyrant — who compliments The Donald immediately gets complimented back. Muslim bus passengers save Christians: 'Kill us all or leave' Christianity Today reports: According to Kenya's Daily Nation news service, two people died and three were injured when a bus travelling from Nairobi to Mandera was attacked by Al-Shabaab militants this morning.Deputy County Commissioner Julius Otieno told the Nation that the attackers had told the passengers to alight from the vehicle and tried to divide them between Muslims and non-Muslims."They were trying to identify who were Christians and who were not. They told the non-Christians to return to the vehicle," Otieno said.Mandera Governor Ali Roba said the passengers had refused to be separated and dared the attackers to either kill all of them or leave. Beautiful story. There is a similar one in Will Ferguson's Road Trip Rwanda: A Journey Into the New Heart of Africa in which Hutus risked their own lives when they refused to separated from Tutsis (long after the 1994 Rwanda genocide -- small-scale executions still occur, mostly across the border in the Democratic Republic of Congo). List of Justin Trudeau's staff The Ottawa Citizen has gleaned the disclosures made to the federal ethics commissioner to find out who's working for Justin Trudeau, including two nannies for the Trudeau kids. In the PMO? I'm sold on The Big Short Tyler Cowen has a number of observations about The Big Short. It may be "too leftie" but, "There is no central villain, none whatsoever. The filmmakers succeed in showing how the collective actions of many, operating together, can give rise to structural problems and systemic risk." Monday, December 21, 2015
2016 watch (Lindsey Graham) South Carolina Senator Lindsey Graham The Spanish election Politico has "10 takeaways from Spain’s election." Political instability and the math-could-lead-to-fresh-elections narratives tend to be overplayed generally and they are again with this most recent Spanish election. The more important (and related stories) is the end of the decades-old political duopoly that elected alternating Popular Party and the Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE) governments since 1982, and the emergence of the old vs. new divide. The Bezos effect The Wall Street Journal reports that Jeff Bezos has helped turn around the Washington Post, at least in terms of unique visitors to the paper's website, which now has more unique users than the New York Times. First, his influence on the tech side: “He does not get involved in the journalism except to encourage us to hire the best journalists that we can,” Mr. Ryan said. “He has really focused on the technology and customer side, which has been one of the hallmarks of Amazon. Our engineers have an open line to him and he has made his expertise available to us anytime.” Bezos, who founded Amazon, insists that upload times not be two seconds but milliseconds. And then there's the content: Much of the increase has coincided with an aggressive digital approach inspired by Mr. Bezos’ mandate to experiment. The website publishes an average of 1,200 pieces of content a day with increasing amounts geared toward social media. Recent examples include “15 awkward photos of world leaders that explain 2015” and a spoof video called “The Galactic Civil War” that tells the story of Star Wars as if it had been directed by documentarian Ken Burns.“The Washington Post today is kind of like BuzzFeed meets Woodward and Bernstein. There are a number of native-digital tricks of the trade helping drive audience growth, but the newsroom has also maintained its rigorous, old-school journalistic work ethic,” said Jim Friedlich, head of Empirical Media, a consulting firm that advises on digital strategies. The Journal reports: Some critics have raised questions about whether the new focus has resulted in an increasing amount of poorer quality content in the drive to attract more readers and whether it will ultimately lead to what the Post will need most to survive: more digital subscribers. Progress! The Atlantic: "2015: The Best Year in History for the Average Human Being." Despite the frequency of violence in the headlines, American homicides are down (although global war and terrorism is claiming slightly more lives). But more importantly, more impactful causes of global mortality are declining. Vaccines are saving lives. At the same time "famine deaths are increasingly rare" and the proportion of world population that is undernourished has fallen by nearly half since 1990. In very good news, "global child mortality from all causes has more than halved since 1990. That means 6.7 million fewer kids under the age of five are dying each year compared to 1990." And more kids are going to school. According to the World Bank, the percent of global population living in "extreme poverty" has fallen 37% since 1990. The number of democracies is at a record high although civil and political rights are "stuttering." Overall, a very good picture of global progress, even if it isn't perfect or consistent or uniform. Progress is progress and it should be celebrated where it occurs with the hope others will enjoy similar advances in the near future. (HT: Hans Rosling, of course) The higher tax era Matthew Lau at Progressive Poverty writes: Terence Corcoran suggested in May that the rise of the Alberta NDP was a sign of the National Soak-the-Rich Movement, writing, "the idea that there’s a fat 1% sitting on a vast pile of inequality that can be ironed out is now shaping up to be an ideological epidemic."He nailed it. Justin Trudeau campaigned on a promise to raise the marginal income tax rate paid by top earners by four percentage points, and won the election handily. Despite research from the C.D. Howe Institute (which Finance Minister Bill Morneau used to chair) suggesting that the tax hike would push the combined provincial and federal tax rate pass the Laffer curve peak (in other words, the tax hike is so destructive that it would reduce, rather than increase, total government revenues) the Liberals will be going ahead with their plan.Now, Manitoba NDP Premier Selinger is also musing about an income tax hike for those nearer the top of the spectrum. Lau links to research that suggests higher rates won't necessarily net higher revenues for the government. Finance Ministers meet Some people are noting there is only one woman. I'm struck by the unofficial uniform.
Sunday, December 20, 2015
Middle class declining? Yes, slightly, but depending on the starting point, and so is the lower class and lower middle class (those making less than $50,000). That's because the number of people making $100,000 or more is rising. Donald Boudreaux has the American Enterprise Institute chart that demonstrates the trends that refutes the "new Pew Research Center report misleadingly titled 'The American Middle Class Is Losing Ground' and even more misleadingly subtitled 'No longer the majority and falling behind financially'." Comments on The Force Awakens I enjoyed the experience of watching it Thursday night and while I've heard/seen legitimate criticisms, none of them take away from the entertainment value of the latest installment of Star Wars. There are flaws, but these are niggling complaints in the grand scheme of things although I have a larger problem with scale and consistency of scale. Depending on tastes, there might be too much jokiness and too many nostalgic references. Tyler Cowen has comments about the black protagonist. The comments on Cowen's post are worth reading, but here are some highlight-worthy observations: Random Straussian reading: The movie is actually about Gen X/Millennial anxiety of influence. The movie suggests that we Gen X-ers/Millennials) exist in the moral/cultural/political universe that the Boomers created, and ultimately everything we do is just a rehash of something the Boomers did (usually better). And: [P]robably wold [sic] have enjoyed the movie more if my expectations were lower. I had low expectations, so that probably helped. I'd see the movie again at the theater. Can the Wynne Liberals get re-elected in 2018? The Toronto Sun's Lorrie Goldstein says that many people cannot imagine the Liberals winning a fifth consecutive term because of the combination of scandal and incompetence. Just noting the latter, Goldstein says: Everything the Liberals touch turns into a disaster -- provincial finances, deficits, debt, Ontario’s credit rating, health care, electricity prices, green energy, smart meters, Hydro One, air ambulance services, winter highway maintenance. You name it, the Liberals have screwed it up, even as their cabinet ministers keep strolling up to the microphones, demanding to be taken seriously on the next Liberal announcement, which will inevitably be the subject of a scathing auditor general’s report, if not a police investigation, a few years down the road. Goldstein says despite these disadvantages, the Liberals could win in 2018 because they have three advantages: time, Big Union backing, and Big Business support. Time will help voters forget the debacles. Big Union will remind the 1.1 public-sector workers that maintaining their wages and benefits depend on defeating the Tories. They are a large voting block with family members who have an interest in keeping the Liberals in power. Big business thrives under crony capitalism, and Liberal largesse means lots of businesses to be bought off. Goldstein doesn't mention three others: a sympathetic media, the outstanding political skills and instincts of Wynne and the people around her, and the uninspiring leadership of her political opponents. Can she win in 2018. Not only is it possible, I'd say it is likely. Our future robot overlords (at work) Market Watch reports: More than 8 in 10 managers say they spend a significant part of their day planning and coordinating work, 65% solving problems and related tasks, 52% monitoring and reporting performance and 45% analyzing and sharing information, according to the survey, which questioned 1,700 managers across 17 industries.But in roughly five to 10 years, intelligent machines will likely be able to do many of these tasks more effectively than humans, says Bob Thomas, the managing director of Accenture Strategy. Even bosses are going to be looking for work in the future. Sources in the article suggest over the next 20 years, 50% of jobs currently in the United States will be done by robots. I understand wealthy people can have more leisure, and the future goal is more wealth and leisure more evenly distributed. I just don't see how, absent basic income guarantee, what we are going to do with those who don't own the robots. It should be noted that just because robots are doing half the jobs human currently do, does not mean that 50% of future American humans will be out of work. Disruptive technologies often create new industries and thus new opportunities for human work. Brad Wall, leader of the opposition The Globe and Mail reports: Saskatchewan will oppose federal efforts to expand the Canada Pension Plan when finance ministers from across the country gather in Ottawa on Sunday ...The meeting comes as provinces face dramatically different economic circumstances. Resource-dependent provinces such as Alberta, Saskatchewan and Newfoundland and Labrador have been hit hard by the dramatic drop in the price of oil and other commodities.In an interview, Saskatchewan Finance Minister Kevin Doherty said those factors led cabinet to conclude that now is not a good time to expand the CPP. Make a habit of this good question Kids Prefer Cheese: "Compared to what?" Michael Munger provides an example: So, when people say that "You shouldn't eat bacon, meat is bad for the environment!" then you should say, "Well, compared to what?" Changed promises, not broken promises The CBC's Terry Milewski: Promises? Those were goals, not promises! Totally different!From ships and planes to deficits and refugees, many of Justin Trudeau's promises are being comprehensively Photoshopped. Milewski continues: For deficit numbers, select the colour red and crank it up. For refugees, erase the deadline.And, for CF-18s, just blur the outlines until nobody has a clue what the policy is. Are they not aware of what they tweet? Planned Parenthood tweets: "Are you part of the #PPGeneration?" Is that the generation missing because of abortion or those who survived the abortion era? Saturday, December 19, 2015
Best facts learned from books Neat idea for a column, and a list, by Kathryn Schulz in the New Yorker: "Best facts I learned from books I read in 2015." What, exactly, are "best facts"? Nickajack and London fog were new to me and marginally interesting. The senator who saved Christmas Senator Ted Cruz reads lines from "classic" Christmas books with political themes. Maxime Bernier, leadership candidate Huffington Post has an article about Conservative MP Maxime Bernier testing the waters for the Tory leadership. Bernier would be an ideas-driven candidate. Althia Raj writes: A self-described libertarian, he said he'll focus his platform on a more decentralized federalism, a smaller government less involved in Canadians' day-to-day lives, as well as more personal freedoms.He might champion a flat tax — he wrote a book on the subject, he noted. He'll certainly call for balanced-budgets legislation — just like the one the Liberals plan to repeal. Since the election, he has already called for an end to corporate subsidies — fully aware of the paradox, since he dished them out as industry minister. Bernier plays up the fact that Quebec is the only province in which the Conservatives made gains (from five to 12 seats), but his ideological message is what will matter and it will resonate with the small-government wing of the Conservative party outside Quebec. Service for sex but not sex for service The Daily Telegraph reports: The government in the Netherlands has clarified that it is legal for driving instructors to offer lessons in return for sex, as long as the students are over the age of 18.However, it is illegal to offer sex in return for lessons. The transport and justice ministers wrote a letter to Parliament to explain the difference: "It is important that the initiative lies with the driving instructor, and focuses on offering a driving lesson, with the payment provided in sexual acts. When a sexual act offered in lieu of financial payment, that is prostitution." When and where does the sex occur? Before, during or after the lesson? In the car? These are what enquiring minds want to know. Will other, er, service providers be able to, um, enter similar arrangements. Could a plumber suggest to a homeowner such a payment plan? And if no, why not? If the (non-sexual) service was unsatisfactory, how does one go about getting a refund? Or what if the sex was unsatisfactory?(HT: Marginal Revolution) Freedom to move Alex Tabarrok was part of the Freakonomics podcast on migration and said: There are fundamental human rights. There are rights which accrue to everyone, no matter who they are, no matter where they are on the globe. Those rights include the right to free expression. They include the right to freedom of religion. And I believe they should also include the right to move about the Earth. I'm not really a borders guy (in principle), so this sounds good. I am sympathetic to the line "Imagine there's no countries" in that horrible John Lennon song, but contrary to the former Beatles' claim, it is hard to do. Borderlessness in practice is another thing entirely, but moving from one country to another should be easier than it is. In the '50s or '60s, a British magazine (probably The Spectator or The New Statesman) had a symposium on the definition of freedom and one respondent said the ability to get on a plane and fly to another country. If you can't, you are not free. Friday, December 18, 2015
The teflon premier Maclean's: "How McGuinty continues to fly above the gas plant scandal." It should be noted that Charlie Gillis doesn't answer the question. He quotes political consultant and former Progressive Conservative MPP Rob Leone who says the whole "Premier Dad" image has helped McGuinty deflect criticism. The next logical question is how, despite the scandals, does McGuinty continue to maintain that image? Gillis summarizes Leone's description of the former Liberal premier's modus operandi that makes him seem above the fray of mere politics: "McGuinty’s capacity to cast shade on his opponents (often with the help of third parties like unions and environmental groups) without appearing hostile." Maybe, but there has to be more than that. Right-wingers would complain about the assistance of a sympathetic left-wing media. And that's true to a point. But there might be a deeper explanation here. My guess is that McGuinty, despite the Norman Bates appearance, doesn't seem threatening because voters have long under-estimated his political competence (ditto for Jean Chretien). Both McGuinty and Chretien were seen as taking advantage of a political environment -- the post-Harris political tumult in Ontario and the post-Mulroney divided right in Canada -- rather than succeeding by virtue of any political talent of their own. Lacking political genius, voters tend to see them as incapable of political calculation and manipulation. The fact is both had excellent political instincts, including when to leave the political stage, thus maintaining their aura of success. But teflon does not last forever, and in politics it only needs to last until a politician retires. McGuinty's reputation may still take a hit come the trial of David Livingston and Laura Miller, and yet I wouldn't bet on it. High IQ and national prosperity Author Nicholas Wade reviews Hive Mind: How your nation’s IQ matters so much more than your own by Garret Jones in the Wall Street Journal. The subtitle is the provocative part of the argument, and it is summarized by Wade: "maybe IQ scores don’t say much about any particular individual. But, as averages, they do measure something significant about groups of individuals." An individual is a small sample size from which to draw conclusions, but country populations are not. The reason IQ matters is explained by Wade (and Jones): Behavioral economists have confirmed this relationship, Mr. Jones says, finding that, on average, smarter people are more patient and more interested in saving. And indeed national savings rates correlate with IQ scores, Singapore heading the pack with a 45% savings rate and an IQ of 108. Bringing up the rear are several profligate countries that he is too tactful to name.Another finding from behavioral economics is that the cognitively well endowed are more cooperative and “nicer than most other people,” at least when playing games such as the prisoner’s dilemma. They tend to trust one another more and so work well in groups. The virtues of high IQ, frugality and cooperativeness multiply together, helping to explain the large disparities in national economies, in Mr. Jones’s view. “On average, nations with test scores in the bottom 10 percent worldwide are only about one eighth as rich and productive as nations with scores in the top 10 percent,” he reports. And yet Wade is skeptical of Jones's thesis, including several chicken-and-egg questions, but also these reasons: IQ scores are affected by health, nutrition and education, making cross-country comparisons perilous. And there’s something a little irksome about associating so many virtues with high IQ. But irksome doesn't mean incorrect. It is a provocative book and the policy prescription is that countries that want to get rich (and therefore improve the well-being of its population) should raise IQ scores. As Wade suggests, however, the best way to do that is for people to emigrate to the United States: There’s a 10- to 15-point difference between the IQ scores of European countries, according to the world-wide figures assembled by Richard Lynn and Tatu Vanhanen on which Mr. Jones relies. But the difference disappears when these various Europeans migrate to the United States. Thursday, December 17, 2015
Guns are racist Richard Reeves and Sarah Holmes of the Brookings Institute have charts on gun deaths by race, sex, and age. Majority of gun deaths for whites are by suicide, while the majority of black deaths by firearm are homicides. Also, black males 18-29 are four times more likely to be murdered (gun and other causes) than white males of the same age. Queue inevitable comparisons about media ignoring Liberal scandal while excessively covering Duffy trial The Toronto Star reports: "David Livingston, 63, McGuinty’s last chief of staff, and Laura Miller, 36, were charged with breach of trust, mischief in relation to data, and misuse of a computer system." By any objective standard what Livingston and Miller allegedly did -- destroy evidence of the politically motivated billion-dollar cancellation of two gas plants that might have saved the Liberals three seats in Oakville and Mississauga -- is much worse than what that pig Mike Duffy did. There is a difference, other than partisan, that would explain the forthcoming media coverage: the Parliamentary Press Gallery is so much larger than the one at Queen's Park, and they are, generally speaking, slightly better -- but not good but better -- journalists. Expect the Sun to send their columnists to wax indignant about abuse of taxpayer dollars and the right-wing twitterverse to go ballistic over double standards in the Livingston/Miller and Duffy cases. Both are legitimate points, but the reason for the double standard is much more complex than political bias. 2016 watch (The economy edition) Market Watch reports that the homebuilders' confidence index suggests unemployment next year could fall to 4%. Few people pay attention to it, but according to one economic analyst, it is a good predictor of future trends because the construction industry deals with what is happening on the ground with real people rather than statistics: “Homebuilders are, in their optimism, remarkably good at forecasting the unemployment rate in about 18 months’ time,” wrote Steve Blitz, chief economist for ITG Investment Research, in a research note ...Since Blitz thinks builder confidence foreshadows the jobless rate, rather than tracking it in real-time, that means good news for 2016. “Based on this relationship, there are more gains in employment to come, probably driving the unemployment rate closer to 4% by this time next year,” he wrote. The article doesn't get into the politics of such a scenario, but 4% unemployment (acknowledging that it is artificially depressed due to people giving up on the job market) will make it tough for the Republicans to turf the Democrats from the White House. Self-driving cars: Google vs. state of California Google is not happy with California's proposed new regulations on self-driving cars, specifically that a licensed driver would have to be the driver's seat at all times. This could severely curtail some benefits. The rules would not help self-driving vehicles reduce congestion and will not aid disabled or elderly individuals who do not qualify for licenses. The proposed rules would also make the driver legally liable for accidents, which Google is proposing would remain the car-maker. One proposed regulation that Google favours is that autonomous vehicle ownership would be banned, meaning self-driving cars could only be leased. At this time, that is Google's autonomous vehicle business model. For the most part, these draft rules signal that regulators and politicians fail to understand the transformative possibilities of autonomous vehicles -- or they do and want to stop it. The logic of assisted-suicide is that there should be no limits The National Post's Andrew Coyne read the Provincial-Territorial Expert Advisory Group on Physician-Assisted Dying and has noticed that the logic of their proposals, and indeed the logical conclusion of pro-assisted suicide arguments, is that there ought to be no restrictions: The panel defines a “grievous and irremediable” condition as a serious illness or disability “that cannot be alleviated by any means acceptable to the patient,” making the standard essentially open-ended. It dispenses with waiting periods, or the requirement that a doctor be on hand to perform the deed. And, in its most striking finding, it suggests that assisted suicide should be open to children.That is, it will seem striking, to those who have not been paying attention. In fact, it is only logical. The notion that a change in law invoked in the name of unlimited personal freedom could at the same time be hedged with all sorts of restrictions was always contradictory, as assisted suicide’s leading advocates have been quite willing to argue. Indeed, the panel’s insistence on “competence” in place of an age restriction runs into the same difficulty.There are, that is, two very different sorts of rights arguments at work here. There is the conditional, hedged one most people are familiar with. In this, the right comes with certain eligibility tests, rather as you must be of a certain age to drive, or vote, or drink. It is up to the patient to request access to it, and up to society to decide whether to accept his request.But that is not how advocates see suicide. They see it, rather, as a release from suffering; not as an evil to be prevented, but as a service to be provided (indeed, the panel recommends it be done at public expense). This presents the right to die, not as a limited one, such as the right to drive, but as an unlimited one, inhering in all persons — rather like the right to life. And, it has to be said, it is by far the more coherent of the two arguments. Another name for restriction is discrimination. Wherever the line is established -- albeit always only temporarily, as euthanasia and assisted-suicide laws are always liberalized -- effectively discriminates against the people the restriction protects from being killed by a doctor. The modern mind cannot understand that discrimination is ever just, so inevitably the restrictions are struck down. It seems that among mainstream journalists only Andrew Coyne understands this. Caroline Mulroney Lapham Yesterday, for the second time in four days, Toronto Sun columnist Christina Blizzard was promoting Caroline Mulroney Lapham as a potential leader of the Conservative Party of Canada. No one says the daughter of the former prime minister is interested in the job and there is no indication she wants (indeed, she denies it). Blizzard insists Mulroney Lapham has the resume (charity work and law degree), looks (she isn't hard on the eyes) and pedigree (daughter of a former prime minister) to run. While focusing on Mulroney Lapham's physical appearance, which Blizzard rightly insists is not irrelevant, there is never any mention of what Mulroney Lapham believes. Policy and principles simply don't matter. Or at least it doesn't when one has the right pedigree. Wednesday, December 16, 2015
COP 21 Walter Russell Mead and Jamie Horgan write about the Paris COP 21 climate change conference in The American Interest: But historians are likely to agree that the Accord abolished climate change the way that the Kellogg-Briand treaty ended war.This isn’t the game changer many observers hoped it would be, though the establishment of regular updates of those INDCs [Intended Nationally Determined Contributions] already makes it a step forward from Copenhagen. Now the world’s governments will have to endure self-righteous tongue lashings from self-righteous greens at regular intervals. The green movement hopes that this will produce real change, but those hopes seem likely to be disappointed. Developing countries can and will excuse their inaction by pointing to the absence of that $100 billion slush fund, and, in any case, the governments of many developing country are surprisingly indifferent to the views of first-world NGO scolds. Mead and Horgan are optimistic about the future, but not because of the climate change equivalent of Kellogg-Briand: Much as the last great Malthusian panics (the population bomb and peak oil) quietly fizzled out, the panicky, Chicken Little aspects of the green movement are likely to fade over time. The economy of the future will produce more abundance and leave a smaller footprint than the economy we have today. It will be capitalism and innovation that we have to thank for that; fortunately, United Nations climate diplomacy isn’t humanity’s line of defense against eco-catastrophe. Is there a connection between quality of politician and wearing sunglasses?
The War Party The Republicans are the War Party. Reason's Robby Soave sums up last night's Republican debate: "Rand Paul Is Virtually the Only Candidate Who Doesn’t Want to Start World War III in Syria." Flake's important public service The Cato Institute's David Boaz notes, "Sen. Jeff Flake (R-Ariz.) follows retired Tom Coburn in reporting on the ludicrous waste of taxpayer dollars in Washington with 'Wastebook 2015: The Farce Awakens'." Chronicling waste is an important job and now that Coburn is no longer in DC, it is good that Flake is doing it. Perhaps the most egregious example noted by Boaz: USDA spent $5 million on the “Ultimate Tailgating Package” for fans attending a University of Nebraska football game. No one ever accused Cornhusker fans of not knowing how to tailgate. The state is killing fewer people The Wall Street Journal reports: The use of the death penalty in the U.S. continued its yearslong decline in 2015, with the numbers of executions and new death sentences falling to historic lows.In 2015, 28 people were executed, the lowest number since 1991, according to a study by the Death Penalty Information Center.Meanwhile, 49 new death sentences were imposed this year, a 33% decline over last year and the lowest number since the early 1970s. One county—Riverside in California—accounted for 16% of these sentences.For the first time since 1995, the number of death-row inmates nationwide has fallen below 3,000, the study found. Reasons for the decline include declining murder rates, the rise in "life-without-parole" penalties, states moratoriums on the use of the death penalty while execution method issues get sorted out, and the fact six U.S. states have abolished the death penalty since 2007. There is still majority support (around 60%) for the death penalty. The help that harms David Neumark, an economics professor and director of the Center for Economics and Public Policy at the University of California, Irvine, writes in the Wall Street Journal about the growing economic literature that demonstrates minimum wage laws retard job growth, especially among teens. Economic growth and the limits of monetary policy Investor's Business Daily editorializes: "Sorry, But Fed Can't Correct Bad Tax And Regulatory Policies." IBD says: [M]oney creation is a stimulant to the economy and stock market. Over time, prices and output economywide adjust to the larger volume of money. The printing press, alas, is not a job creator.That is the lesson of this long and unprecedented experiment with zero rates and more than $3 trillion of bond purchases through QE1, QE2 and QE3, etc., etc.What has all this money creation bought us in terms of helping juice the economy, creating jobs or giving the American worker a pay raise? Nada. Monetary policy can only do so much to undo the damage of bad fiscal policy: An even more pernicious myth is that Fed money creation can ease the pain of bad tax and regulatory policy. Much like the bad old days of the 1970s, we now operate under an ideology that punishes investment, risk-taking and profits through high tax rates and stifling regulations. Job-killing regulations and Obamcare, welfare that disincentivizes work, and taxes that disincentivizes investment harm the economy much more than even the correct monetary policy can counter. Tuesday, December 15, 2015
Great gift ideas Megan McArdle has her annual "The Gotta-Have-It-All Kitchen Gift Guide." For the past few years it has inspired at least one gift. Liberals won't rule out GST hike Yesterday on CTV's Power Play Robin Sears predicted the Liberals would raise the GST to help balance the budget (one percentage point is worth about $7 billion in additional revenue for Ottawa). Today Liberal Finance Minister Bill Morneau would not rule out raising the GST. While economist generally prefer consumption taxes over income taxes (in a vacuum), it is as an either/or proposition, not sales taxes in addition to income taxes. If the Liberals want to raise the GST, they should cut income taxes. But they won't because they want the revenue to pay for the massive growth in government spending they are planning over the next four years. Coyne on the dog's breakfast of Trudeau's Senate reform Excellent Andrew Coyne column dissecting the government's attempt to reform the Senate by making appointments of newly non-partisan senators non-partisan, and what it all means. Coyne says that the independent nominations process is anything but independent and having (supposedly) non-partisan senators will add confusion to the proceedings of the Senate (How will Question Period work? Who will introduce government bills?). It is the compromise Senate reform that no one wants or asked for and probably won't work. Fuck this study: swearing and vocabulary I've always hated the cliché that swearing is a sign of an inferior vocabulary. Fuck that shit. Now science allegedly proves that people who swear have larger vocabularies. The press is all over this story (although the press outside North America was all over it three days ago). The study ("Taboo word fluency and knowledge of slurs and general pejoratives: deconstructing the poverty-of-vocabulary myth") by Kristin Jay and published in the journal Language Sciences actually does no such thing. It's methodology proves that people who can draw on a larger selection of profanities and obscenities also know more animal species. The Independent reports: Using students as research subjects the psychologists then asked their participants to say as many different swear words as they could think of in 60 seconds. Other non-swearing tasks such as saying as many animal names in the same space of time were also set to compare the findings.The results found that volunteers who could produce the greatest quantity of swear words could also produce the most words in other categories. The reporting on this study, both in papers and online, has entirely misrepresented the study to suggest that people who swear are smarter or more articulate; it has done no such thing. I still think that the platitude that swearing is a sign of a limited vocabulary is bullshit, but this study doesn't prove anything about the correlation between swearing and vocabulary. |