Sobering Thoughts |
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Comments on politics, the culture, economics, and sports by Paul Tuns.
I am editor-in-chief of "The Interim," Canada's life and family newspaper, and author of "Jean Chretien: A Legacy of Scandal" (2004) and "The Dauphin: The Truth about Justin Trudeau" (2015).
I am some combination of conservative/libertarian, standing athwart history yelling "bullshit!"
You can follow me on Twitter (@ptuns).
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Wednesday, October 31, 2012
Power Rankings (Week 8) Rank, team, last week's ranking, record, this week's score 1. Houston Texans: (1, 6-1) bye Second in scoring (30.9 ppg), fifth in scoring defense (18.3 ppg) and second in scoring differential (+88). 2. Atlanta Falcons: (3, 7-0) Falcons 30, Eagles 17 They put points on the board on their first six possessions against Philly and didn't punt until middle of the fourth quarter. Solid team on the season: fifth in scoring and seventh in scoring defense. 3. New York Giants: (2, 6-2) Giants 29, Cowboys 24 G-Men have won four in a row. They have also won all four games they've played in Dallas Cowboys Stadium since it opened in 2009. But nearly blew a 23-0 lead against 'Boys on Sunday and were kept to 293 yards of offense on the day. 4. Chicago Bears: (4, 6-1): Bears 23, Panthers 22 Da Bears are second in sacks (3.3 per game) and sacks allowed (3.6 per game). 5. San Francisco 49ers: (5, 5-2) 49ers 24, Cardinals 3 In their past four wins, they've allowed 12 points and no touchdowns. 6. New England Patriots: (6, 5-3) Patriots 45, Rams 7 First in scoring (32.8 ppg) and scoring differential (92). 7. Denver Broncos: (8, 4-3) Broncos 34, Saints 14 Doubts about Peyton Manning's return (including mine) are proven unfounded: they've scored at least 21 points in every game and have put at least 31 points on the board in each of their four victories. 8. Green Bay Packers: (7, 5-3) Packers 24, Jaguars 15 Packers started 2-3 and everyone wondered if they'd have troubles winning the division. They won the next two and the universe was back in order. On Sunday they won their third in a row but because the Pack defeated Jax by a mere nine points pundits are reviving talk of Green Bay being disappointing. 9. Pittsburgh Steelers: (12, 4-3) Steelers 27, Redskins 12 Steelers were solid from opening to closing whistle on Sunday and were the first team to contain RG3's passing or running game all season. RB Jonathan Dwyer had 107 yards running and in the process became the first Steeler to have 100+ yard running games in back-to-back contests since Willie Parker in 2008. 10. Miami Dolphins: (15, 4-3) Dolphins 30, Jets 9 Fifth-best scoring defense (18 ppg) has allowed just 12 ppg during their three-game winning streak. 11. Baltimore Ravens: (13, 5-2) bye Allowing an unRavens-like 23 ppg (17th overall). Joe Flacco's offense isn't picking up the slack: 24.9 ppg (17.7 over the past three games) and the fourth-year QB has only a 59.5 completion percentage and 84 passer rating, which isn't awful but isn't all that great either. (That 84 passer rating is right behind Christian Ponder and Carson Palmer.) 12. Seattle Seahawks: (9, 4-4) Lions 28, Seahawks 24 'Hawks have allowed a mere 16.8 ppg, but their offense isn't helping, scoring just 17.5 ppg (27th overall) as they have troubles moving the ball up the field (303 yards per game, 30th overall). 13. Minnesota Vikings: (10, 5-3) Buccaneers 36, Vikings 17 Last week I said, "The stats don't have the Vikes as a top ten team, but it's hard to argue with a 5-2 record." Then they get blown out at home by three touchdowns by a perfectly average Bucs team. 14. Indianapolis Colts: (22, 4-3): Colts 19, Titans 13 Advanced metrics like Football Outsiders DVOA have Indy near the bottom (fourth worst according to total DVOA) and their -35 point differential is a red flag, but they are better than they were last year, scoring 4.2 ppg more and allowing 2.3 ppg less than in 2011. They are also starting the second half of the season tied for the wild card. 15. Washington Redskins: (11, 3-5) Steelers 27, Redskins 12 Their 26.6 ppg is 8.6 more than last year, but their defense has regressed severely: 406.4 total yards per game (compared to 339.8 ypg in 2011) and allowing 28.4 ppg (22.9 in 2011). 16. Dallas Cowboys: (17, 3-4) Giants 29, Cowboys 24 The 'Boys scored 24 consecutive points after falling behind 23-0 early in the second quarter. QB Tony Romo had four picks, but three were not his fault (one was on his receiver who ran a bad route and two were stupendously awesome defensive plays). They might have won if Dez Bryant's hand hadn't been three inches outside the end zone when he landed what otherwise would have been a touchdown catch. And the Cowboys defense prevented Eli Manning from putting many points on the scoreboard (the defense scored and New York only scored when they were had a short field due to turnovers). There are a lot of ifs and buts, and Dallas teases fans with glimpses of greatness and near-wins, but ultimately the Cowboys being the Cowboys they find ways to lose. 17. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: (25, 3-4) Buccaneers 36, Vikings 17 Bucs are feast or famine: Tampa has scored at least 28 points in four games this season, including two losses, and fewer than 17 points in two others (including a win). Ditto the defense: twice they've allowed at least 35 points but four times they allowed less than half that total. 18. New Orleans Saints: (14, 2-5) Broncos 34, Saints 14 It is hard to win shootouts: Saints are sixth in scoring (27.1 ppg), but third worst in points allowed (30.9 ppg). 19. Philadelphia Eagles: (16, 3-4) Falcons 30, Eagles 17 Philly is fourth worst in the league in terms of giveaways (2.4 per game -- the same rate as last season). Worse yet, they always seem to come at inopportune times (in the opposing red zone or end zone). Eagles have lost three in a row and coach Andy Reid must announce weekly that Michael Vick is still the starting quarterback. 19. San Diego Chargers: (19, 3-4) Browns 7, Chargers 6 Again this year the Bolts seem like they'll find a way to lose games. This past Sunday, Robert Meachem dropped a likely touchdown pass. Weather was terrible (limiting Philip Rivers to 154 aerial yards), but if the receiver holds onto the ball, San Diego either scores six or is in position for a clinching field goal. 21. Detroit Lions: (24, 3-4) Lions 28, Seahawks 24 For all the talk about regression in the defense, the Lions are allowing fewer points and yards than last year. The offense isn't doing its job; QB Matthew Stafford in among the elite QBs in yards (301, tied for fourth overall), but he's 23rd in TDs and he and Calvin Johnson have yet to connect for a score all season. 22. Cincinnati Bengals: (23, 3-4) bye Cincy is allowing about 40 yards more per game and almost six points more. Also, second-year QB Andy Dalton needs to improve on the second worst third-down conversion percentage in the NFL (28.41%). 23. Arizona Cardinals: (18, 4-3) 49ers 24, Cardinals 3 4-0 start followed by four consecutive losses, scoring just 36 points in October (9 ppg). Their defense is still ranked fourth (17.8 ppg), but their 21.3 ppg is 15th over the past three games. Also, Cards are allowing a sack on 10.95% of all pass plays, worst in the NFL. 24. New York Jets: (20, 3-5) Dolphins 30, Jets 9 While attention is given to the quarterback controversy and Mark Sanchez's (ample) failings (30th in passer rating, 33rd in completion percentage), the defense has failed the Jets, too: 25 ppg (24th overall). 25. Oakland Raiders: (27, 3-4) Raiders 26, Chiefs 16 The Raiders have won two in a row, but in doing so they've beaten probably the two worst teams in the NFL -- Chiefs and Jaguars -- by a combined 10 points. 26. St. Louis Rams: (21, 3-5) Patriots 45, Rams 7 After starting 3-2, they've lost three in a row and have been outscored 41-92 over that span. Fourth-year QB Sam Bradford must improve on his 8:7 TD to pick ratio. 27. Buffalo Bills: (28, 3-4) bye Bills spent the off-season improving their D. This year they are surrendering a league-worst 32.4 ppg. 28. Cleveland Browns: (30 2-6) Browns 7, Chargers 6 Rookies RB Trent Richardson and QB Brandon Weeden are both showing improvement as the season progresses and the defense can be pretty decent since defensive back Joe Haden returned after starting the season with a two-game suspension. Cleveland has won two of their last three and look to give most opponents some trouble in their contests. But it is a stretch to think this team can win many games. 29. Tennessee Titans: (26, 3-5) Colts 19, Titans 13 For the fifth time in eight games, Tenny failed to score more than 14 points. Their -95 points if the worst scoring differential in the NFL. 30. Carolina Panthers: (29, 1-6) Bears 23, Panthers 22 The silver lining is that they outplayed the Bears on Sunday and have lost their last four games by a combined 12 points. The cloud is that the Panthers are in the bottom third of the league in almost all categories. 31. Jacksonville Jaguars: (31, 1-6) Packers 24, Jaguars 15 They just can't score, putting up a league worst 14.7 ppg. 32. Kansas City Chiefs: (32, 1-6) Raiders 26, Chiefs 16 I don't get the Chiefs. Coach Romeo Crennel apparently doesn't either. The game was close (within 10 points). Backup quarterback Brady Quinn gets concussed early and the Chiefs are forced to bring in Matt Cassel, who was benched in favour of Quinn earlier this week. It's obvious the team doesn't have confidence in Cassel. So do they use RB Jamaal Charles, who the last few seasons has been running like Jim Brown at the height of his career? No. Charles gets five carries for four yards. Five other players, including both QBs, ran for more yards. And get this, they had Cassel throw 30 times (20/30, 218 yards, a TD and a pick). I don't understand why the quarterback whom the team has no faith in gets to throw the ball while an ultra elite runner is sitting on the sidelines. And when Crennel was asked about it, he said "I’m not exactly sure either." Offensive coordinator Brian Daboll defends not using Charles saying the Raiders did a good job stopping their run. Maybe they wouldn't have if KC used their best running back. It's one thing to lose if you don't have the talent -- see Jacksonville -- but quite another when you do and don't use it. Also, the Chiefs have not been ahead for one minute of game play this year -- their only win came on a field goal in overtime -- a feat to begin the season that has never occurred before. The lesser of two evils Russell Roberts has a long and very good post on who is worse from an economic perspective, Barack Obama or Mitt Romney. It's actually quite close. Read the whole post, but here's the conclusion: The two most important issues facing the economy are shrinking the size of government and the marriage of Wall Street and Washington. Neither candidate has addressed either issue with honesty or seriousness.So who is worse? In terms of rhetoric, it’s a toss-up. Bigger government vs. a possible trade war with China is an appalling choice. But I don’t believe Romney will really bash China once he’s in office. I think he’s just pandering. So he’ll label China a currency manipulator and do little about it, the way that Obama signed an order to close Guantanamo Bay and nothing happened. And the fact is that Obama won’t be able to expand government much and may be forced to shrink it if there is a Republican House that is a little more Tea-Party flavored and maybe a Republican Senate.You could argue that we could get genuine budget cuts with Paul Ryan as VP but of course, that’s why Romney chose him, to convince spending hawks like me that he’s serious about cutting spending. I think cutting spending will be very hard to do ...So who is worse? If I had to bet, I think Romney is certainly more likely to cut spending than Obama. But I would have said the same thing about George W. Bush and his opponents and I don’t think it mattered much. Same with some of Obama’s worst actions, like the auto bailout. It’s nice to think Romney would never do that, but Bush started the auto bailout and I would have said the same thing about Bush ex ante. So I fear a lot of my intuition is just wishful thinking. Roberts doesn't explicitly answer the question, but seems to be saying Romney. That's my view: Romney has the potential to be a tiny bit better on economic issues but recent Republican history suggests that any optimism should be severely tempered. If you needed another reason to vote Romney The Hill reports that Obama advisor David Axelrod says of Michigan, Minnesota, and Pennsylvania: "I will shave off my mustache of 40 years if we lose any of those three states." Not that he'll be held accountable if he doesn't follow through. Leno on Benghazi Jay Leno has a funny joke about Benghazi at about the 50-second mark of this video. About a minute later, Leno has a great joke on the "First Time" ad featuring Lena Dunham. Isn't her 15 minutes up yet? Sandra Fluke on contraception in a video interview with the Cornell Daily Sun: "I think the case is much more about what kind of society do we want to live in." Me: Who wakes up in the morning and says, "I want to live in a society where the government pays for everyone's contraception." Anti-Mormonism Anne Sorock at Legal Insurrection notes that the media is (and has been) playing the anti-Mormonism card. Mormonism deserves scrutiny -- the practice of posthumously baptizing relatives is creepy and offensive -- but these exposes and criticisms are purely politically motivated. Benghazi Left-leaning Washington Post columnist David Ignatius says there are plenty of questions about Benghazi that still need answers. It's almost the end of ubiquitous pink month Bloomberg's Virginia Postrel: During the second presidential debate, the candidates’ wives both wore shocking-pink dresses, and, for the third, President Barack Obama sported a pink breast-cancer wristband. Nobody wants to seem less than enthusiastic about fighting breast cancer, so pink has replaced autumnal orange as the color of the season. And here's the thing about the ubiquitous pink (ribbons to t-shirts to pens to mugs and NFL penalty flags): by raising awareness, it might lead to increased understanding and knowledge. Postrel makes the points that breast cancer is best understood as breast cancers, not everyone's is the same, and the politics of increasing awareness might not be entirely helpful (except to those who fund-raise for the cause): But new disease definitions do threaten the brand identities of the cancer-fighting groups that define their causes by body part. They may find it hard to maintain patient solidarity as diagnoses and treatments fragment -- especially if people with different versions of, say, breast cancer have very different experiences and prognoses. If breast cancer is really a bunch of different diseases, some of which have more in common with other cancers than with each other, maybe they don’t all belong under the same pink umbrella. Politicizing Hurricane Sandy As the Wall Street Journal notes, politicizing the storm is not just about whether he helps or hurts Barack Obama, it's about justifying bigger government: Matt Mayer of the Heritage Foundation has found that annual FEMA disaster declarations have multiplied since the Clinton years and have reached a yearly average of 153 under Mr. Obama. That compares to 129.6 under George W. Bush, 89.5 under Mr. Clinton, and only 28 a year under Reagan. Mr. Mayer argues that taxpayers and storm victims would be better served if FEMA devoted itself to helping out in the biggest disasters, such as Sandy, and not dive in at every political request for assistance ...The rush to use Hurricane Sandy to justify a bigger federal government makes us wonder if there's an excuse liberals won't use to grow Leviathan? In defense of price gauging Hurricane Sandy came and went, but the shortages remain. Raising prices to match consumer demand would have meant there would be supplies on the shelves if people who desperately needed them were willing to pay for them. Because prices remained the same despite rapidly rising demand, there were shortages as many people stocked up, leaving many others completely without. Holman Jenkins in the Wall Street Journal: At one New Jersey supermarket, shoppers barely paused for a public loudspeaker announcement urging them to buy only the provisions needed for a couple of days of suburban paralysis. None seemed to be deterred as they loaded their carts to the gunwales with enough canned tuna to last six weeks. A can of Bumblebee will keep for years: Shoppers take no risk in buying out a store's entire supply at the normal price.What might have changed their behavior? Doubling the price would have given pillagers a reason to take only what was necessary. Did Shop-Rite double the price of tuna? Of course not. The store cares about its reputation with customers more than it cares about its customers. In 1998, during the snow storm that crippled parts of eastern Ontario and western Quebec, Karen Selick defended so-called price gauging. She wrote: "Price increases are simply one method of rationing scarce goods among competing users." In 2008, Russell Roberts released a novel, The Price of Everything: A Parable of Possibility and Prosperity, that defends price gauging and uses shortages and the grief they cause to teach about supply and demand and the morality of the market. Tuesday, October 30, 2012
Democrats are dumb Sarah Hoyt complains that the Obama campaign workers who call her cannot pronounce her name. Her first name. Romney leading among early voters Paul Mirengoff at Powerline and David Weigel at Slate have the story: Mitt Romney leading by six among those who tell pollsters they've voted, about the same as Gallup has Romney leading Barack Obama in national polls. John McCain was behind by 15 points in early voting in 2008. Early voting could represent enthusiasm, but it's also votes that cannot be changed if there are any last minute gaffes, surges, or surprises. Because when the power is down ... Breitbart: "White House directs storm victims to ... the internet." John Nolte writes: "Everyone with an IQ above room temperature knew that one of the most crippling effects of Sandy would most certainly be widespread power and cable television outages -- and yet, no one in charge at the White House even considered offering up information that included emergency telephone numbers or radio stations." Dressing up like hookers for Halloween Advice on how to prevent your daughter on dressing up like a slut. (HT: Ricochet) I'm lucky my daughters still want to dress like pilgrims and princesses. What's more offensive? Introducing into the political lexicon the phrase "legitimate rape" or the phrase "cock punch"? Oregon According to The Oregonian women are (barely) propping up Barack Obama in Oregon, but could lead to the defeat of the marijuana ballot initiative. Obama is at 47% -- terrible numbers for the liberal incumbent for the Left Coast -- compared to Mitt Romney's 41%. The President is leading by 10 points among women and 2 points among men. Those margins should hold up, but it might cause some concern among Democrats. Also, a marijuana legalization measure if opposed 49%-41% and two pro-casino measures look vulnerable to defeat. Women are opposed to legal drugs and easy access to gambling. 'Institutionalizing Cronyism' That's what Veronique de Rugy calls President Barack Obama's plan to create a Secretary of Business. Imagine the Small Business Administration -- crony capitalism of government giving funds to losing businesses -- writ large. It's time toe end what de Rugy calls the "unhealthy marriage between the private sector and government." Democratic papers are endorsing Romney From an Investor's Business Daily editorial: "In fact, of those major metro dailies that have announced their picks, more than one in five that had previously backed Obama are now pushing Romney, according to a tally by the American Presidency Project. Most, like the Register, had a history of endorsing Democratic presidents." November 6 election will impact food freedom 10 experts weigh in with brief comments at Reason.com symposium. Sex change victim changes mind Blazing Cat Fur notes a Daily Mail story in which a boy who became a girl at the age of 17 wants to change back into a boy just one year after the sex change Someone explain how RCP rates NC a toss-up? Real Clear Politics has moved North Carolina back into the toss-up category. Since September became October, Mitt Romney has led in eight polls, and Romney and Barack Obama have been tied in two. In the last two, Romney is ahead +8 and +6. How does that rate a toss-up? The good news about Hurricane Sandy Good for Barack Obama: it took Benghazi off the front pages. A great cartoon is worth a thousand columns. Sandy is also good news because it can make the president look, you know, presidential. But one's person's looking presidential is another's photo-op. Can we survive two weeks sans Kathy Shaidle? Five Feet of Fury will not be updated until around November 14. Only thing worse would be if Obama gets re-elected and Shaidle isn't commenting. Sunday, October 28, 2012
Des Moines Register endorses Mitt Romney First time the DMR has endorsed a Republican since 1972. Michael Barone explains why it matters. Saturday, October 27, 2012
Off for the weekend I'm going to Pittsburgh to watch the Steelers-Redskins game. Not blogging on the trip. Back Monday. If you're watching the game on Sunday, you might notice me in the stands; I'll be the one in yellow and black. Friday, October 26, 2012
Hey doctors, eff off The Waterloo Region Record says it more politely in an editorial: "Whatever good it might do for the collective waistline, the Ontario Medical Association’s latest campaign against obesity is a prescription for an overweight and overbearing nanny state." The Obonomy David P. Goldman at PJ Media on Barack Obama's economy and the lack of investment: "This isn’t like the Great Depression. During the Great Depression, to be sure, investment collapsed, but no-one had money to invest. Now everyone has money to invest (and the Federal Reserve keeps shoving new money into the system by purchasing securities from the open market), yet no-one wants to invest." Power Rankings (Week 7) Rank, team, last week's ranking, record, this week's score 1. Houston Texans: (3, 6-1) Texans 43, Ravens 13 Four of Houston's six victories have been by 20 points or more. 2. New York Giants: (2, 5-2) Giants 27, Redskins 23 When the G-Men were doing the two-minute drill after the final two minute warning, having to go the length of the field, it was predictable that Eli Manning would throw to Victor Cruz. What wasn't predictable was that it was a 77-yard scoring play. That's the way things have gone with the Giants all year. 3. Atlanta Falcons: (1, 6-0) bye The Falcons are the third most efficient scoring team in the NFL, averaging 12.7 yards per point. 4. Chicago Bears: (4, 5-1): Bears 13, Lions 7 Da Bears have Da Best defense in the NFL with a league-leading 13.0 ppg (and 9.3 ppg over the past three). If O-line gave QB Jay Cutler time to throw, Chicago could score points to make games comfortably safe. 5. San Francisco 49ers: (5, 5-2) 49ers 13, Seahawks 6 According to Football Outsiders, the Niners are first overall in DVOA, a metric that measures how teams do compared to the norm in similar situations (5th in offense, 4th in defense). However, there is reason for concern regarding San Fran's offense; in the past two home games, Alex Smith's offense has scored precisely one touchdown. 6. New England Patriots: (8, 4-3) Patriots 29, Jets 26 Pats are first in points scored (31.0 ppg). 7. Green Bay Packers: (9, 4-3) Packers 30, Rams 20 QB Aaron Rodgers has 16 TDs and just two picks in the past four games. 8. Denver Broncos: (10, 3-3) bye Maybe I was wrong about Peyton Manning: he's still a top three quarterback. 9. Seattle Seahawks: (6, 4-3) 49ers 13, Seahawks 6 According to the advanced metrics of Football Outsiders, the 'Hawks have the second-best defense in the NFL. Too bad they are winless (0-3) against the rest of the NFC West (all on the road). 10. Minnesota Vikings: (12, 5-2) Vikings 21, Cardinals 14 The stats don't have the Vikes as a top ten team, but it's hard to argue with a 5-2 record. 11. Washington Redskins: (11, 3-4) Giants 27, Redskins 23 By some measures, Robert Griffin III is the best quarterback when you take into account running and passing. The defense, however, is terrible, with the Skins on pace to become the first team in NFL history to allow more than 5000 yards -- and they are on pace to allow more than 5,500. 12. Pittsburgh Steelers: (15, 3-3) Steelers 24, Bengals 17 Pittsburgh was more in control of the Sunday night game than the touchdown score differential indicates. If the Steelers get their O-line in order, they'd be one of the top three teams in the AFC. Or if safety Troy Polamalu gets back. 13. Baltimore Ravens: (7, 5-2) Texans 43, Ravens 13 Even before the injury to inside linebacker Ray Lewis, the Ravens run defense was nothing special. Cold Hard Football Facts: "The Ravens have now surrendered more than 180 yards rushing 11 times in their entire history – including three times in their last three games." 14. New Orleans Saints: (18, 2-4) Saints 35, Bucs 28 Winning shootouts is a dangerous recipe for success, but the Saints might be able to pull it off. The defense is awful, but Drew Brees seems to make up for it. Saints have won two in a row. 15. Miami Dolphins: (13, 3-3) bye The Fins will battle for a playoff spot, although they probably aren't good enough to top the Patriots for the division title. 16. Philadelphia Eagles: (16, 3-3) bye The truth is Michael Vick has not been a very good quarterback for a season-and-a-half. The problem is you can't replace him all that easily. 17. Dallas Cowboys: (17, 3-3) Cowboys 19, Panthers 14 This is not a stats-based analysis but a simple eye test: watching the Boys passing game, you see a lot of problems. They just aren't getting their act together and whether its Tony Romo not quite throwing the ball quite right or Dez Bryant and Miles Austin dropping balls (and Jason Witten earlier this year), Dallas isn't going to win without Romo passing the ball to team-mates in the end zone and they've had troubles doing that. 18. Arizona Cardinals: (14, 4-3) Vikings 21, Cardinals 14 October has been unkind: the Cards have lost three in a row, and their quarterbacks have been sacked 19 times in those games. 19. San Diego Chargers: (19, 3-3) bye 500 only because they can beat clearly inferior teams while they have trouble against okay teams or better. 20. New York Jets: (20, 3-4) Patriots 29, Jets 26 Tebow! Tebow! 21. St. Louis Rams: (21, 3-4) Packers 30, Rams 20 And reality sets in: after a 3-2 start, Jeff Fisher's team has dropped a pair of games. After allowing 33 points combined in the previous three games, Fisher's defense allows Green Bay to put 30 points on the scoreboard in one contest. 22. Indianapolis Colts: (25, 3-3): Colts 17, Browns 13 They're 500, but have a -41 scoring differential. 23. Cincinnati Bengals: (22, 3-4) Steelers 24, Bengals 17 Bengals have lost three in a row. 24. Detroit Lions: (23, 2-4) Bears 13, Lions 7 Amazing fact: QB Matthew Stafford has not thrown a touchdown pass to Calvin Johnson this year. Johnson's only TD catch was thrown by backup Shaun Hill. It only makes sense to blame Megatron being on the cover of this year's Madden for Detroit's regression this season. 25. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: (24, 2-4) Saints 35, Bucs 28 Glass is half full view: All four of Tampa's losses were by seven points or less. 26. Tennessee Titans: (27, 3-4) Titans 35, Bills 34 The team will have to decide if they want to continue muddling by with veteran QB Matt Hasselbeck or turn the reins back over to Jake Locker when he's healthy again. Tenny doesn't look good enough to contend and the team needs to develop Locker so I know what I'd do, but it's a harder decision for the coach when the team is only a game out of a playoff contention. 27. Oakland Raiders: (29, 2-4) Raiders 26, Jaguars 23 (OT) Needed overtime to defeat the offensively challenged Jaguars. 28. Buffalo Bills: (28, 3-4) Titans 35, Bills 34 The Bills needed to go most of the way down the field after the two-minute warning to get into field goal range, but the small passes in the middle of the field and runs reminded Buffalo fans of the Trent Edwards/Dick Jauron era. Rewind 12 months and no one would have said that of Ryan Fitzpatrick and Chan Gailey. The fans deserve better. 29. Carolina Panthers: (26, 1-6) Cowboys 19, Panthers 14 Rarely does a team fire a general manager mid-season, but Carolina needs a scapegoat and GM Marty Humey was a convenient one. As Grantland's Bill Barnwell explains, right move at the wrong time -- and not only because it's too late (the whole staff will become lame ducks, which might affect their 2013 draft). 30. Cleveland Browns: (30 1-6) Colts 17, Browns 13 The Browns managed just 55 rushing yards against the Colts (13 in one run by the quarterback) against Indy's run defense that was allowing more than 150 yards per game before facing Cleveland. 31. Jacksonville Jaguars: (31, 1-5) Raiders 26, Jaguars 23 Jax is the only team that has scored less than 10 touchdowns (8). And last week their only offensive weapon, RB Maurice Jones-Drew, got hurt. 32. Kansas City Chiefs: (32, 1-5) bye KC is choosing to start backup QB Brady Quinn. Can't be good. Election night victor The National Journal tries to explain the possibility of three scenarios which could make it impossible to know who won the election on election night: recounts, provisional ballots, and an Electoral College tie. Here's why they are wrong: if present trends hold up -- not continue, but hold up -- Mitt Romney should win his states decisively and have plenty of room in the EC. Clever ad Conservatives are miffed by this ad, saying it is "inappropriate" or "disgusting." Actually, it is a clever ad aimed at an audience Barack Obama desperately needs but is losing. It is not offensive and it doesn't promote teenage promiscuity. It is full of liberal bullshit, but that's what youth like the actress in the ad like. If you are offended by the ad, be offended by its ideas, not its sexual innuendo. The (new) Ryan plan Washington Post columnist Michael Gerson likes Rep. Paul Ryan's vision for America (and, no, that's not a reason to dismiss Ryan or his vision): Paul Ryan’s recent speech at Cleveland State University was an important part of the Romney campaign’s “go large” strategy — a presentation on political philosophy amid the normal stump speeches. Following a Republican primary season heavy on tea-party rhetoric and a GOP convention light on substance, Ryan outlined a conservative vision of the common good.Those who expect Ryan to sound like Ayn Rand — an embarrassing past flirtation — got something very different. Ryan quoted Abraham Lincoln on social mobility — “an unfettered start and a fair chance in the race of life.” Ryan identified with his mentor Jack Kemp: “When he spoke of progress, he meant progress for everyone.” And without quoting him, Ryan embraced Pope John Paul II’s emphasis on the importance of healthy civic and religious institutions. It is a combination — Lincoln, Kemp and Catholic social thought — that must have set Rand a-spinning ... Ryan’s main contribution in the Cleveland speech was to fill out a positive Republican governing philosophy. The speech recognized that equal opportunity is not a natural state. Rather, it is a social achievement — “something we’ve had to constantly fight for.” And Ryan defined a sophisticated division of labor between government and civic institutions in promoting opportunity: “There has to be a balance — allowing government to act for the common good, while leaving private groups free to do the work that only they can do. . . . Our families and our neighborhoods, the groups we join, our places of worship . . . this is where we live our lives. They shape our character, they give our lives direction, and they help make us a self-governing people.” I am not enthralled with pro-government conservatism, but it is a vision that 1) wins elections and 2) can limit and even reverse the growth of the state. It is a decent alternative to the Leftism of Barack Obama and managerialism of Mitt Romney, and represents a marginal step away from the Big Government that Republicans have been flirting with since the Eisenhower and Nixon administrations. The Hope and Change President becomes the candidate of fear Toby Harnden's excellent Daily Telegraph column begins: "Four years after he was elected as a self-described 'hopemonger' promising a new post-partisan era, President Barack Obama is trying to claw his way to re-election with an ugly, divisive campaign in which he is playing the role of fearmonger-in-chief." The entire column is worth reading. Debates don't matter. Unless they do. Usually debates don't have a big impact on how people perceive the candidates and therefore rarely do debates affect the outcome of an election. 2012 was different. The Wall Street Journal's Peggy Noonan explains: Nothing echoes out like that debate. It was the moment that allowed Mr. Romney to break through, that allowed dismay with the incumbent to coalesce, that allowed voters to consider the alternative. What the debate did to the president is what the Yankees' 0-4 series against the Tigers did at least momentarily, to the team's relationship with their city. "Dear Yankees, We don't date losers. Signed, New Yorkers" read the Post's headline.America doesn't date losers either. There is, of course, a difference between Obama and the Yankees: the Yankees had a winning record during the regular season (third best overall) to make the playoffs. So the Yankees aren't really losers. Obama lost the October 3 debate in Denver because he had a terrible four years in office. In other words, Obama lost the regular season, too. Or more precisely, America lost. Thursday, October 25, 2012
Can we stop calling Colin Powell a Republican? Breaks with GOP (again), endorses Barack Obama (again). The right way to view voting As an active non-voter* I agree with Donald Boudreaux: I do not vote. I refuse to participate in such a loathsome process as politics, a process where the best you can say about 999 out of every 1,000 successful politicians is that they are duplicitous. Most of them, of course, suffer far more and far worse character flaws.) * I generally refuse, deface, or spoil my ballot. I sometimes don't make it to the voting booth at all and on those days my conscience is even clearer. The whole gay marriage controversy hasn't hurt Chick-fil-A USA Today reports: "Consumer use, visits and ad awareness were all up measurably in the third quarter, at a time the chicken chain appeared to be taking a public relations drubbing, reports research specialist Sandelman & Associates." Perhaps because many Americans don't think everyone needs to toe-the-line on so-called controversial issues. Media already has excuses for Obama defeat Ronald Radosh at PJ Media says New York Times political reporter Matt Bai is blaming Bill Clinton: At first, Bai says, the Obama campaign tried to depict Romney as “inauthentic and inconstant, a soulless climber who would say anything to get the job.” But after the public got to see what Romney was really like in the debates, that effort ground to a halt. Instead, Clinton argued they had to portray Romney as an extremist conservative. That, after all, is what Clinton did when he ran, portraying himself as a centrist in between far left elements in his own party and right-wing Republicans opposed to him.Barack Obama, of course, is no Bill Clinton, and yet the campaign adopted Clinton’s advice, working hard to paint Romney as Bush-Cheney redux. Clinton, as Bai writes, was a “centrist deal maker,” while Obama is correctly not seen in this light by the American public. Bai adds that since the debates, Romney “has made a brazen and frantic dash to the center, and Mr. Obama has often seemed off-balance, as if stunned that Mr. Romney thinks he can get away with such an obvious change of course so late in the race. Which, apparently, he can.”Romney thus cannot be painted as “a far-right ideologue,” no matter how many times Obama ads try to do just that. To put it bluntly, the tactic is not working, as the increasing numbers shifting to Romney in the polls continue to prove. Obama and his team will continue to make efforts to try to convince swing voters and independents of just that, and so far, it isn’t working.So, Bai says, if Romney wins, Democrats will put the blame on Bill Clinton for having the campaign change its tactics as Clinton told them to do. Put aside for the moment the Times trying to affect the post-election narrative two weeks before the election. The question is who is to blame for the probable Democratic defeat? If Barack Obama changed the entire campaign and tried to represent himself as something he's not on the advice of Clinton, is it not the President's fault. After all, Clinton can't force Obama to do something. Ultimately, it's Obama's decision. The reason Romney will win (assuming he does) is that Obama could not change the past four years in the final month before the election. Obama has a record that can't be defended, not an image that needs polishing. Romney became a better candidate over the last month (and Obama a worse one) as the Republican contender made the President own his record. Period. Obama isn't losing because he positioned himself incorrectly; he's losing because he governed terribly. Obama doesn't care about the economy In the November Interim, we run an excerpt of a large omnibus review of Obama books that will appear shortly at TheInterim.com. Here's what I wrote for the paper: The Associated Press recently offered a long feature examining who is the “real Obama” which even after four years in the White House is not completely answerable. To conservatives, the President is a raving socialist, who either has already demonstrated his radical tendencies or is salivating for a second term to unleash his real agenda. To those on the Left, he is a compromising centrist who has abandoned his progressive vision articulated throughout the 2008 presidential campaign. Most Americans in the middle probably look and see a earnest man trying to deal with a terrible global economy and dysfunctional Congress as best he can.Is his best good enough? As journalist Bob Woodward, a chronicler of presidents, pointedly makes clear in The Price of Politics, Obama is clearly out of his element dealing with economic issues. Full of telling and detailed vignettes – Woodward is the envy of journalists who wonder at his ability to get seemingly everyone in Washington to talk to him – the author recreates the scenes of the President's negotiations with Congressional Republicans to get a debt-limit deal in 2011 to avoid shutting down government or defaulting on debt payments. Woodward paints a stunning picture of the Hope and Change President incapable of working through the details of a grand bargain for tax reform and entitlement spending reductions. Obama is either politically naive, ignorant of economic facts, blind to the imminent dangers that failure entails, or completely uninterested in economic matters. The missteps and terrible judgement in negotiating with Republicans show a President either uninterested or incapable in dealing with the fiscal problems American governments will continue to encounter in the foreseeable future. This book alone should have ensured Obama's defeat in his re-election bid.One reason Obama may not be interested is that he simply doesn't care. That seems far-fetched, but several authors paint a picture of Obama as a socialist, with goals of massive redistribution, economic realities be damned. From there I move to Stanley Kurtz's latest, Spreading the Wealth: How Obama is Robbing the Suburbs to Pay for the Cities, before getting to some of the moral issues that is usually our paper's bailiwick. Anyway, the discussion at work was whether my analysis -- that Obama doesn't care about the U.S. economy -- was uncharitable or off-target. Today, Breitbart reports that Obama was endorsed by the Des Moines Register and the President offered an interview that included this exchange: DMR: Do you have any regrets taking on some of the economic issues, some of the issues that we're talking about for your second term, that when you had the chance, so to speak, during your first -- do you have any regrets that you didn’t do that at that time?BO: Absolutely not .... Obama offers some lame excuse, pinning the blame on Senate Republicans. But it is telling that he admits no regret whatsoever in not dealing with the economic issues facing America. That's not really news to anyone who has read Woodward's The Price of Politics. Even more than his radical worldview, the fact that the President would put politics over dealing with the precarious U.S. economy should disqualify him from being re-elected. Larger polls favour Romney PJ Tatler asks: "Polls with Large Voter Samples All Favor Romney; Smaller, Less Reliable Polls All Favor Obama. Why?" There are four theories offered, but #2 makes the most sense to me: "Certain pollsters are purposely publishing polls with high margins of error, so they can later have wiggle room when their pro-Obama slant proves to be inaccurate." A fifth theory, not offered, is that some pollsters are deliberately skewing results in Obama's favour to energize his base or demoralize Romney voters. October surprise? President Barack Obama does little on immigration file for four years, but In other news, people are stupid Via Small Dead Animals: "72% of consumers know little or nothing about farming and ranching. Yet, 70% say purchase decisions are affected by how food is grown and raised." Presidential candidates fail econ The Daily Caller reports that economist Donald Boudreaux "gives Obama F, Romney D minus for economic literacy." Okay, D isn't a fail, but it's terrible for the inhabitant of the White House. The problem, Boudreaux explains, is that politicians seek votes rather than the truth or understanding. Me: democracy gets all the incentives run. Wednesday, October 24, 2012
Are 'teachers' a good source for insight into education policy? Steven Landsburg's comment on something Barack Obama said in the debate and why he's wrong (although few people would have picked up on why): Obama: “If you talk to teachers, they’ll tell you class sizes make a difference”. Yes, and if you talk to disinterested researchers, many of them will tell you otherwise (or at least that the difference is too small to justify the cost). If you talk to oil execs, they’ll tell you how important it is to subsidize oil, but maybe the folks with skin in the game are not the best sources for this sort of thing. 'How Would a Georgist Single Tax Work in Monopoly?' Bryan Caplan on Henry George's theory of taxation and its applicability to the game of Monopoly. Here's an earlier Caplan post and paper on the Georgist tax. Is there actually more awareness about breast cancer to be raised? Sissified NFL to use pink penalty flags this weekend. UPDATE: Only for the Miami Dolphins-New York Jets game. Profs tilt Left Inside Higher Ed: "Academics, on average, lean to the left. A survey being released today suggests that they are moving even more in that direction." More academics are on the far left than are conservative and on far right combined. In 2008, 55.5% of professors were liberal or far left (according to various attitudes, not self-identification) while today it is 62.7%. Wintour vs. Ann Romney The Daily Mail reports on speculation that Vogue's powerful editor Anna Wintour may have warned off fashion houses from connecting their clothes to Ann Romney. McGinnis on Squeeze I always say that Rick McGinnis can write about anything and I'll find it interesting and read through to the end, even if I don't care about the topic at all. The latest example is his longish post at Whose Culture is It Anyway? on the 1980s band Sqeeze. I quite like their song "Up the Junction" but don't know many other songs and literally could not care less about the band -- until McGinnis writes about them. In the November edition of The Interim (which just went to press about an hour ago) Rick writes about churches being converted into condos. It is brilliant. Stop the presses! New Yorker endorses Obama The New Yorker editorializes: Perhaps inevitably, the President has disappointed some of his most ardent supporters. Part of their disappointment is a reflection of the fantastical expectations that attached to him. Some, quite reasonably, are disappointed in his policy failures (on Guantánamo, climate change, and gun control); others question the morality of the persistent use of predator drones. And, of course, 2012 offers nothing like the ecstasy of taking part in a historical advance: the reëlection of the first African-American President does not inspire the same level of communal pride. But the reëlection of a President who has been progressive, competent, rational, decent, and, at times, visionary is a serious matter. The President has achieved a run of ambitious legislative, social, and foreign-policy successes that relieved a large measure of the human suffering and national shame inflicted by the Bush Administration. Obama has renewed the honor of the office he holds. Wave election? PoliPundit: "I’d say a wave election is a distinct possibility," including the Senate. I doubt it. The prediction ignores the fact that a year or so ago Republicans were optimistic they could win the Senate and make significant movement toward winning a 60-seat majority in another election or so, but the battle for the Senate is actually very tight right now. McGovern's America James Pethokoukis looks how various demographics vote and changing demographics: "The problem for Republicans, as a friend recently put it, is that the small George McGovern minority from 1972 is now a slight majority in 2012 America." Noting this article from the National Journal by Ronald Brownstein, which reports: By 2008, minorities had more than doubled their vote share to 26 percent. College-educated whites had increased their share to 35 percent. The big losers were whites without a college degree, who dropped from 61 percent of all voters to 39 percent—a decline of more than one-third from their level in 1984. That is social change at breakneck speed.By itself, this evolution in America’s social structure goes a long way toward explaining why Democrats have won the popular vote in four of the five presidential contests since 1992 after losing (usually emphatically) five of the six races from 1968 to 1988. Mondale in 1984 carried only 40.6 percent of the popular vote. But if college-educated whites, noncollege whites, and minorities all voted as they did in 1984, but were present in the same proportions they represented in 2008, Mondale would have taken nearly 48 percent of the vote. Conversely, if those three groups voted as they did in 2008, but were present in their 1984 proportions, Obama would have lost convincingly. The article also points to this Michael Barone column, which Pethokoukis says, "deftly shows how George McGovern’s terrible 1972 loss — much like Barry Goldwater’s 1964 blowout — planted the seeds for his parties future victory." As Barone notes, "If you look at the map of the states where McGovern ran ahead of his national average, you see something very much like the map of the states carried by Obama." Barone also said McGovern didn't so terribly in 1972 when compared to Hubert H. Humphrey in 1968 (in a three way race) which indicated the death of the New Deal coalition. As Barone says: By 1972, the old political machines were no longer capable of generating votes, and labor unions were declining in membership and salience. If these forces got less representation at national conventions under the McGovern-inspired rules, that simply reflected political reality. The peace movement and the McGovern candidacy were a force that brought new people into the Democratic Party — more upscale and highly educated people who became a constituency capable of producing, or at least contributing importantly to, the majorities that elected Jimmy Carter in 1976, Bill Clinton in 1992 and 1996, and Barack Obama in 2008. 'Is inequality really a problem for U.S. economic growth?' James Pethokoukis in an excerpt-heavy post at AEI Ideas examines whether inequality harms economic growth and looking at the research concludes, "inequality is actually associated with higher economic growth." Worried about currency manipulation? What about Israel? Business Insider reports on some of the activities of the Bank of Israel and concludes: "Of course, the Israeli economy is so small, nobody thinks it's a serious threat to big US industries, but the point remains that China is far from unique in its efforts to control its currency for export purposes." Tuesday, October 23, 2012
Who is Barack Obama? The Associated Press has a feature exploring the real Barack Obama, whom they claim is largely unknown after four years in the White House. If that is true, it's because media outlets, including the AP and its news partners, have not done their job. Historian Douglas Brinkley is quoted saying the President "hasn't told his story well enough." Perhaps its time for another Obama autobiography. Near the end of the feature, the non-bylined story states: "There's also first lady Michelle Obama; and 11-year-old Sasha and 14-year-old Malia; and there is Bo, the Portuguese water dog the girls were promised as a reward for leaving Chicago to move to the executive mansion." Well, that is substance, isn't it? Is Obama a dangerous radical or an incompetent manager or visionary leader of men? It doesn't matter, because he's a swell family man. Two paragraphs later, the article concludes on the imaginary son Barack Obama never had: "If I had a son, he'd look like Trayvon."No other president could have said those words. So it comes down to this: Barack Obama is the First Black President. Period. End of story. And all you really need to know. A cynic might suggest the long AP feature's implicit point is that people should feel guilty about dumping the Affirmative Action President on November 6. Austerity will suck for governments and the public, but it still beats the alternative Conservatives like to pretend that government cutbacks are either painless or only affect loafers (welfare recipients and public-sector employees), but that's not true if the austerity measures are meaningful. Jeremy Rozansky in City Journal California on the deep but probably still insufficient cuts to municipal spending in San Bernardino, California: San Bernardino’s austerity plan leaves an atrophied city government, but essential functions remain in place. Crime will likely go up, but it won’t necessarily skyrocket. Greek-style looting and arson appear unlikely. Closing three of four libraries isn’t ideal, but it isn’t the end of civilization, either. At the same time, however, the deep cuts do make San Bernardino an even less hospitable place. Businesses will be even more skeptical about moving to a city where the government can’t afford to fill potholes or respond quickly to crimes because it has been compromised by decades of poor decision-making. Much of the city’s deficit reduction is in deferred payments that have recently earned the ire of the California Public Employees’ Retirement System and the Securities and Exchange Commission; under a “best-case scenario,” the budget is unlikely to be balanced even with these cuts and deferrals. San Bernardino can balance its budget only by boosting revenues, which requires more businesses, not fewer. It’s not clear how long the city can continue on this unsustainable path. Driverless cars might improve economy Reihan Salam at NRO's The Agenda: "We tend to focus on things like marginal tax rates, but self-driving cars could greatly increase market production by secondary earners and thus increase output." The whole shortish post is worth reading, as are the links. As The Economist's Adrian Wooldridge writes, "Traffic accidents now cause about 2m hospital visits a year in America alone, so autonomous vehicles will mean much less work for emergency rooms and orthopaedic wards." Rasmussen swing-state poll Mitt Romney leads Barack Obama 50%-45% in 11 key battleground states according to Rasmussen. Related: Obama makes two trips to tiny New Hampshire in ten days. Must be close. Both N.H. and U.S. Passing the test Bret Stephens in the Wall Street Journal on Mitt Romney: "Score-keepers will say the debate went for Mr. Obama. Maybe it did. But Mitt Romney emerges looking like a perfectly plausible president—which was no doubt all he wanted from tonight." Monday, October 22, 2012
Testing our faith From Mrs. Pinkerton at Dumb Old Housewives: "There are so many ways of suffering for the faith. Constant exposure to deplorable 70s pop-tune church songs shouldn't be one of them." The problem with Silver At NRO Josh Jordan critiques election forecaster Nate Silver: Whatever the explanation, Silver’s strong showing in the 2008 election, coupled with his consistent predictions that Obama will win in November, has given Democrats a reason for optimism. While there is nothing wrong with trying to make sense of the polls, it should be noted that Nate Silver is openly rooting for Obama, and it shows in the way he forecasts the election.On September 30, leading into the debates, Silver gave Obama an 85 percent chance and predicted an Electoral College count of 320–218. Today, the margins have narrowed — but Silver still gives Obama a 67 percent chance and an Electoral College lead of 288–250, which has led many to wonder if he has observed the same movement to Romney over the past three weeks as everyone else has. Given the fact that an incumbent president is stuck at 47 percent nationwide, the odds might not be in Obama’s favor, and they certainly aren’t in his favor by a 67–33 margin. Later Jordan would observe, "This is the type of analysis that walks a very thin line between forecasting and cheerleading." It will be interesting to see how the media treats Silver if he's way off (as it appears he might be). I have two predictions: 1) if the trends continue, Silver will write a major article hedging his bets so that he can claim he correctly predicted the election regardless of victor and 2) if Silver is incorrect by a wide margin, his supporters will continue to point to his 2008 success and ignore 2012. Liberal leadership race (October 22 edition) The Hill Times reports that "insiders" don't think Dalton McGuinty will run for the Liberal leadership. The gist of the article is not about McGuinty, though, but the likelihood of Justin Trudeau winning in a cakewalk in which the contest lacks any other significant leadership contender (Marc Garneau might not run, either). Liberal MP Hedy Fry says, "The bottom line is when you look at it, what does it matter if there is a coronation or not?" Obama's desperation Politico reports: "Barack Obama’s campaign is embracing a fundamentally defensive strategy centered on winning Ohio at all costs — while unleashing a new barrage of blistering attacks against Mitt Romney aimed at mobilizing a less-than-fired-up Democratic base." Meanwhile Republicans think not only will they win, they will win big, Politico reports. Perhaps, but that kind of enthusiasm was also evident in mid-August. Romney ahead in battleground state The Washington Post reports that their poll finds: In the seven states designated as “toss-ups” by The Washington Post plus Ohio, it’s Romney 52 percent to Obama’s 46. That six-point margin is not a statistically significant edge given the sample size, but a reversal from where things have been, paralleling shifts in state polling over the past few weeks. Maybe not that's not a statistically significant lead, but it is a significant shift that confirms trends in other polls. The second debate Here is Steven Landsburg's thoughts on last week's presidential debate. Point #30 is incredible. Ashamed I didn't notice it myself. Landsburg's two main conclusions are bang-on: Romney hasn't given anybody who wasn't already going to vote for a reason to do so and Obama sounds "very good as long as you don’t compare his rhetoric to his policies." I would add this about last week's debate: the desire to counter outsourcing and mild tilting toward protectionism should be called out for what it is: pure evil. Opposition to outsourcing and tree trade is bigoted, built upon a foundational view that Americans (or Canadians or whoever) should have jobs and people in China, India, or Vietnam should not. Any politician who favours trade restrictions or opposes outsourcing should be labeled a bigot. Of course, Americans will vote for pro-American bigots, but that is beside the point; the political attractiveness of hating people who live halfway across the world doesn't make it right. In defense of the Electoral College Economist Garret Jones defends the Electoral College as a means to the end of national stability, if not tranquility : As it stands, presidential candidates are trying to appeal to the median voter in each state across a large number of states. That's how you get to be president. This reduces regional tensions because candidates are never trying to get 90% of the votes in a state. When you're pitting 90% of one region of the country against 90% of another region of the country, you're substantially raising the probability of social conflict.Too many civil wars are based on regional differences for this to be no big deal. And you don't need to get to the point of civil war to get bad outcomes -- mere regional transfer programs, switching across regions every four or eight years, would be quite bad enough. Sounds like Canada could benefit from an electoral college system. Public and private sector wage gap Federal News Radio -- we shouldn't be surprised such an entity exists, should we? -- reports: The gap in pay between federal employees and private-sector workers has jumped 8 percentage points since last year, according to new data presented at a Federal Salary Council meeting Friday.On average, federal employees earn 34 percent less than their private-sector counterparts, according to the council's analysis ...Over the last several years, the council's analysis has shown the pay gap increasingly widening.Still, two years after President Barack Obama proposed a two-year pay freeze for civilian government employees, the issue of whether and how much feds are underpaid remains contentious. The story reports some problems with the methodology, but still, a large and widening gap exists. In terms of the economic and political health of society, this wage gap matters much more than the supposed wage gap between men and women (most of which can be explained by women choosing part-time work over full-time and the time they take out of their careers to have children and tend to their family). (HT: Drudge Report) Ontario Liberal Party rules favour Finance Minister Dwight Duncan The Toronto Star reports on the rules candidates for the Liberal leadership must follow, including fundraising and various timelines. A party convention will choose a new leader on the weekend of January 25. The paper reports, "One insider told the Star the guidelines are tailor-made for someone with 'institutional support' such as Finance Minister Dwight Duncan." The timelines are tight, perhaps making a Kathleen Wynne or Eric Hoskins candidacy difficult. Obamacare vs. employment Robert J. Samuelson writes in the Washington Post about Obamacare's perverse incentives which will harm workers: Employers have a huge incentive to hold workers under the 30-hour weekly threshold. The requirement to provide insurance above that acts as a steep employment tax. Companies will try to minimize the tax. The most vulnerable workers are the poorest and least skilled who can be most easily replaced and for whom insurance costs loom largest. Indeed, the adjustment has already started.As first reported in the Orlando Sentinel, Darden Restaurants — owners of about 2,000 outlets, including the Red Lobster and Olive Garden chains — is studying ways to shift more employees under the 30-hour ceiling. About three-quarters of its 185,000 workers are already under, says spokesman Rich Jeffers. The question is “can we go higher and still deliver a great [eating] experience.” The financial stakes are sizable. Suppose Darden moves 1,000 servers under 30 hours and avoids paying $5,000 insurance for each. The annual savings: $5 million. Maybe debates matter Powerline's Paul Mirengoff notes a trend at Gallup. Writing in the Wall Street Journal last week, Peggy Noonan said that debates are influencing the presidential election, perhaps to an unprecedented degree: They've been historic, shifting the mood and trajectory of the race. They've been revealing of the personalities and approaches of the candidates. And they've produced a new way in which winners and losers are judged. It's a two-part wave now, the debate and the postdebate, and you have to win both. On books and reading The Wall Street Journal has an excerpt from Joe Queenan's forthcoming One for the Books. An excerpt from the excerpt: Close friends rarely lend me books, because they know I will not read them anytime soon. I have my own reading schedule—I hope to get through another 2,137 books before I die—and so far it has not included time for "The Audacity of Hope" or "The Whore of Akron," much less "Father John: Navajo Healer." I hate having books rammed down my throat, which may explain why I never liked school: I still cannot understand how one human being could ask another to read "Death of a Salesman" or "Ethan Frome" and then expect to remain on speaking terms. British death panels Government health care systems require lethal rationing. Red State explains what is happening in England: Because the Liverpool Pathway is set up to ration care and minimize costs in that last year of life, there are perverse incentives. Primary among them is to aggressively identify patients who aren’t quite terminal and help them out a bit. As we know, when men start assuming the role of God, very little good comes out of it. Sunday, October 21, 2012
Saturday, October 20, 2012
We need an education reboot The Hoover Institute's Clint Bolick asks: If you were designing a K-12 education system from scratch, with no preconceived notions, and taking full account of the breathtaking technological innovations that have made possible a high-quality, highly personalized education for every child, what would that system look like? Of course not. Bolick with what's needed, focusing mostly on education saving accounts and school choice. What else is needed: new models for school-year and daily structure (more shorter holidays, longer days or later starts), the need for non-certified teachers, use of technology, remote instruction, etc... Stop the presses! Race-obsessed documentarian to vote for Obama Ken Burns in New Hampshire Union Leader: "Why I am voting for Barack Obama." Not miserable enough The Daily Caller reports on an expert who says the misery index indicates a narrow Obama re-election. Minnesota relents State will now allow free online education. Out-dated oversight, the Minnesota Office of Higher Education explained. Friday, October 19, 2012
Minnesota in play, maybe John Hinderaker has two posts -- here and here -- on the possibility of Mitt Romney winning Minnesota. Seems unlikely, but 1) the polling gap is closing and the latest has Romney behind Barack Obama by just two points and 2) Obama is buying ads in the state, although that might be to hit western Wisconsin. Demographics seem to favour the Republicans, also. Four and down 4. Last night with just over two minutes remaining, with two timeouts in their pocket, and down 13-6, the Seattle Seahawks punt from their side of the field. Normally I don't like that move, but the 'Hawks are the second best team in the NFL in terms of keeping opponents to three and out. Normally I don't like the punt because it is too conservative, but Seattle's defense is very good and it makes some sense for Pete Carroll to trust his D. It didn't work out because of a ridiculous 65-yard punt (the best punters average punts of about 50 yards) and tremendous coverage resulted in a very long field (89 yards). Russell Wilson couldn't do it. Considering that Wilson threw precisely one caught pass in the second half before the final possession, I'm not sure Carroll should have trusted his quarterback even if the defense deserved (and acted to warrant) his confidence. 13-6 remained the final score. 3. Slate's Jack Dickey asks and answers: "How the hell did the Seahawks build an elite defense?" 2. Refuse a safety? Niners coach Jim Harbaugh refused a safety last night and while it will have no influence on seeding, it probably affected those who bet on the game. No one I have seen is asking the question: did Harbaugh bet on the game? 1. Forget about the Sports Illustrated cover curse. What about the GQ cover curse? Not only are Liberal MPs entitled to their entitlements, so are their kids The London Free Press: "Questions abound about federal cheques used to pay for the wedding reception of the son of ex-Liberal cabinet minister Joe Fontana of London." MRU fights against tyrannical Minnesota law prohibiting online education Alex Tabarrok, one of two economists behind Marginal Revolution University, says unlike Coursera which caved to strictures against online education, MRU will not cooperate with the state in denying its citizens access to free online schooling. No fairy tale ending for post-apartheid South Africa The Economist: "It has made progress since becoming a full democracy in 1994. But a failure of leadership means that in many ways, South Africa is now going backwards." The magazine reports: Skills shortages are a brake on growth and are just one reason why the country’s inclusion in the BRICS (albeit as an afterthought) looked incongruous. In September the Reserve Bank reckoned that South Africa’s growth rate for 2012 would be just 2.6%. Countries such as Nigeria and Angola have galloped ahead in recent years, with growth pushing 10%, albeit from a lower base. The economy, much smaller than that of the other BRICS, is likely to be toppled from its spot as Africa’s biggest by Nigeria’s in the next decade... Economic malaise and the chronic failure of government services are an indictment of South Africa’s politicians. Under apartheid, a role in the ANC was about sacrifice and risk. Today it is a ticket for the gravy train. Jobs in national and local politics provide access to public funds and cash from firms eager to buy political influence. For someone from rural South Africa, who has a poor education and little chance of getting a good job, a seat on the local council may be the only way out of poverty. Higher up, the rewards are even greater. By numerous measures, including education and inequality, South Africa is headed in the wrong direction. Pro football player compares himself to birth control In one of the worst analogies I've ever seen, New York Giants running back David Wilson said: "I'm like birth control. You have to believe in me. Like birth control, 99.9 percent of the time I'm going to come through for you." Castro's condition described as 'very close to a neurovegetative state' The Miami Herald reports that a Venezuela doctor (who hasn't treated Fidel Castro) says the former communist dictator of Cuba has suffered a stroke and as a result cannot recognize anyone and will have difficulty eating. Castro has reportedly suffered from poor health for some time, has not been seen or heard from for the past half year, and was prematurely reported dead. Well, there is always tomorrow. At some point free citizens must rise up and throw off their chains Slate: "Free Online Education Is Now Illegal in Minnesota." Obama's re-election plan Stephen Green at PJ Media says the Democrats have a firewall or triage plan to re-elect President Barack Obama and it involves holding Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, and Ohio. Romney's really, really, super fantastic performance at Al Smith dinner Nice self-deprecating sense of humour was served up with devastating attacks on President Barack Obama and stinging criticisms of the media (and they all garnered great laughter). Watch the video at Mediate and read their report. Watching the video has produced the first time I've ever actually liked Mitt Romney. Al Smith IV had a few good jokes, too. If Romney wins ... Ann Romney will be America's first pro-life First Lady. Every post-Roe Republican has been married to a woman who was self-described pro-choice. LifeNews forgot to mention Betty Ford among GOP pro-choice First Ladies. (HT: ProWomanProLife) News no one is going to care about or it wouldn't have happened Newsweek is going entirely digital in new year. Technology and advertising get blamed for the magazine's demise -- and one can easily see why in an age of the hourly news cycle, a weekly general interest newsmagazine is doomed -- but I think the biggest problem for the one-time Washington Post property was it's abandoning news in 2009. For crying out loud, news is part of the magazine's name. Wikipedia reports: Citing difficulties in competing with online news sources to provide unique news in a weekly publication, the magazine refocused its content on opinion and commentary beginning with its May 24, 2009 issue. It shrank its subscriber rate base, from 3.1 million to 2.6 million in early 2008, to 1.9 million in July 2009 and then to 1.5 million in January 2010—a decline of 50% in one year. In hindsight that might have been a bad move. Thursday, October 18, 2012
Because that's what government does The Washington Examiner begins an editorial on gas prices thusly: "On the same day that electric-car battery manufacturer A123 Systems announced its bankruptcy -- having won and consumed a $249 million federal green energy grant -- President Obama argued that the federal government must spend even more on similar boondoggles." Romney opens a meaningful lead Mitt Romney opens a 7-point lead over Barack Obama and now leads in the Electoral College according to Real Clear Politics. Four and down (Week 7 games to watch) 4. Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers: Several good divisional contests this weekend, including the New York Jets at the New England Patriots and the Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears. But the 2-3 Steelers need to win to realistically have any chance to make the playoffs (3-2 teams make the playoffs about half the time, while 2-3 teams make it just over 20% of the time, so their sixth game is critical), and losing to a division rival would effectively be a double loss. The Steelers are 2-0 at home and Ben Roethlisberger should be able to score against the bottom quarter defense of the Bengals. Add in the excitement of prime time -- it's Sunday night -- and it should be a good game. 3. Washington Redskins at New York Giants: Like to see what Robert Griffin III can do against the Giants. Washington won both their games against the G-Men in 2011, and that was with Rex Grossman under center. Washington might not win, but it should be a tough contest for New York. 2. Baltimore Ravens at Houston Texans: Big test for the Texans coming off their Green Bay loss in which they surrendered 42 points. Big test for the Ravens who have suffered a number of serious injuries. Joe Flacco's 92 passer rating and Matt Schaub's 91.6 are very close, but the difference might be Houston's strong rushing offense and Baltimore's mediocre defense against the run. Or as one pundit put it, "One side has Arian Foster, the other doesn't have Ray Lewis." Before the injuries, the Ravens gave up 200-yard running games back-to-back for the first time in Baltimore history. Both teams will rely on their offense, and Houston's is better and playing at home. It is possible that this is a preview of a playoff game, and whoever wins will go a long way to ensuring their playoff spot. 1. Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers: The NFC West features three 4-2 teams (including Seattle and San Fran) and a 3-3 team, so a victory here could be critically important. 'Hawks are already 0-2 within the division while this is the first divisional contest for the Niners. Both teams are great against the pass, with the 49ers allowing a league-best 5.6 yards per pass attempt and the 'Hawks the third-best 5.8 yards per attempt. But with Alex Smith and Russell Wilson under center, expect a balanced offense for both teams. Seattle has trouble on the road, but could be playing a team reeling from a 21-point loss to the Giants. I rated the Seahawks-Patriots game the best game to watch in Week 6 and it was a great contest, with Seattle storming back for a late victory over the Pats. Tonight's game should be a tightly fought, defensive gem this week. $1 trillllllion dollars The American welfare state exceeds the $1 trillion mark. That figure comes from a new Congressional Research Service report and combines both federal and state welfare costs. The Daily Caller reports: "The government spent approximately $1.03 trillion on 83 means-tested federal welfare programs in fiscal year 2011 alone — a price tag that makes welfare that year the government’s largest expenditure..." Liberal leadership race (October 18 edition) The Globe and Mail reports that Martha Hall Findlay is really, really considering entering the race, as opposed to when she was just really considering entering the race while she was in the process of getting rid of her old leadership campaign debt. Tasha Kheiriddin says that Dalton McGuinty can't win the federal Grit leadership. Adam Radwanski says he won't enter the race. Chantal Hebert says that arguments against McGuinty entering the race are superficial, although she is less clear on whether she thinks the Ontario Grit leader can win the federal job. John Ivison says don't forget about Marc Garneau. Me: That will be Garneau's refrain if McGuinty does enter the race because the former astronaut's whole campaign is predicated on being the not-Trudeau. The Globe and Mail has a front-page editorial condemning McGuinty's decision to prorogue the legislature in Ontario. Considering that the paper is carrying water for Trudeau, this might be considered a warning to McGuinty about the type of Gerald Butts, a former "highly regarded" adviser to McGuinty, has quit his job with the World Wildlife Fund of Canada to work for Justin Trudeau leading to wild bouts of unsubstantiated speculation. |