Comments on politics, the culture, economics, and sports by Paul Tuns. I am editor-in-chief of "The Interim," Canada's life and family newspaper, and author of "Jean Chretien: A Legacy of Scandal" (2004) and "The Dauphin: The Truth about Justin Trudeau" (2015). I am some combination of conservative/libertarian, standing athwart history yelling "bullshit!" You can follow me on Twitter (@ptuns).

 
Ron Paul's portfolio

A few days ago the Wall Street Journal's personal finance blog reported that while most Congressmen have a portfolio along the lines of "10% in cash, 10% in bonds or bond funds, 20% in real estate, and 60% in stocks or stock funds," Ron Paul's portfolio is 14% cash, 21% real estate, 0.1% in stock funds (all shorted), and 64% in gold and silver mining stocks. The WSJ reports:

At our request, William Bernstein, an investment manager at Efficient Portfolio Advisors in Eastford, Conn., reviewed Rep. Paul’s portfolio as set out in the annual disclosure statement. Mr. Bernstein says he has never seen such an extreme bet on economic catastrophe. ”This portfolio is a half-step away from a cellar-full of canned goods and nine-millimeter rounds,” he says.

This is the real reason that Ron Paul cannot be president. Not the supposed nuttiness, but the pessimism. Americans elect optimists (extreme ones in the cases of Ronald Reagan and Barack Obama); Paul is the anti-optimist.
posted by Paul Tuns at 11:23 PM

 
Four and down (four to watch on the final Sunday of the year)

4. Baltimore Ravens (11-3) at Cincinnati Bengals (9-7): Cincy is back in the playoffs with a victory and the Ravens will guarantee themselves a bye in the first round with a win, so there is still plenty to play for. The Bengals have struggled lately, going 3-4 after starting 6-3 -- and two of those three wins came against the Cleveland Browns and St. Louis Rams who combine for six wins on the season. The Bengals have not beaten a team with a winning record all season. After a mid-season defensive swoon, they've allowed just 49 points over their past three games. They face a Ravens team that is just 3-4 on the road this year, including three losses to sub-500 teams. That said, the Ravens blitzing defense might be too much for rookie QB Andy Dalton. Expect a close one, won by Cincy if they take a lead into the fourth quarter.

3. San Diego Chargers (7-8) at Oakland Raiders (8-7): Raiders have a chance at both the AFC West and the wild card, but they need a lot of other teams to lose, so they'll be playing for the win. They could also set new records for penalties (with four more) and penalty yards (they need eight). Dubious records, but they seem like the kind of records the Raiders should hold. The Bolts have superior offensive numbers, but these two teams are ranked third (Oakland, with 77) and fourth (San Diego, with 76) in big plays (plays over 20 yards). Expect excitement and the unexpected with Oakland's special teams (last week they had a great fake field goal scoring play negated by a penalty, but it's the kind of thing the Raiders do). Philip Rivers has had a much better second half and should put points on the board. San Diego ekes past Oakland.

2. Kansas City Chiefs (6-9) at Denver Broncos (8-7): Impact and narrative. Denver wins and they make the playoffs. Lose and it still depends on the result of the Chargers-Raiders contest being played at the same time. To make things interesting, there is a storyline: Kyle Orton, released by the Broncs mid-season after Tim Tebow won the starting job, returns to Denver as the starting quarterback for the Chiefs to try to spoil the party for his old team and the second-year quarterback who displaced him. (As if Tebow trying to clinch a playoff berth wasn't story enough.) Denver needs to find their missing defense to give Tebow a chance for some late-game heroics; Denver has given up 81 points in its last two games. Broncs edge past the Chiefs because Orton can't score with the pathetic offensive tools he's has to work with.

1. Dallas Cowboys (8-7) at New York Giants (8-7): A classic win-and-you're-in game with the victor taking the NFC East. It is a great Sunday night contest with two major markets -- New York against America's Team. Except, of course, the Boys haven't been America's Team under most of Jerry Jones' ownership. The standard line about both these teams is that pundits don't trust either of them. Fair enough, but let's dig a little deeper. Statistically speaking, the Cowboys do almost everything a bit better than the Giants. If the Boys play as well as they can, they win quite easily. The secondary is superior and the linebackers are more disruptive; the receiving corps of Austin Miles, Dez Bryant, Laurent Robinson, and Jason Witten is an order of magnitude better than Victor Cruz, Hakeem Nicks and whoever else Eli Manning is throwing to; even without DeMarco Murray, the running game with sporadic Felix Jones is better than New York's rushing offense (dead last in the NFL). Tony Romo has cut back on his errors, and so has Eli Manning. This year Manning is playing much better than Romo so if it comes down to the quarterbacks, New York wins (although Romo has a better passer rating, so who knows?). If Dallas plays a solid 60 minute game, they shouldn't lose, but the fact is they seldom at the top of their game until the final whistle. In every one of their seven losses in 2011, their defense gave up a game-winning fourth-quarter drive, including in its 37-34 shoot-out against the Giants last month. Interestingly, this is the 100th meeting of these two teams. On paper, the Cowboys should win five out of seven games, but in reality, they won't because Dallas is a team that finds ways to lose. New York punches their playoff ticket at home on Sunday in what should be a tightly fought contest.
posted by Paul Tuns at 10:54 PM

 
David Warren's final column of 2011

It is one part mocking of prediction columns and one part defense against calendar reform. You have to read it for yourself.
posted by Paul Tuns at 10:33 PM

 
Week 16 Power Rankings

(Last week's power ranking, season record, and this week's result in parenthesis)

1. Green Bay Packers (1, 14-1, W, Chicago Bears 35-21): Clinched first overall. They should be collecting individual hardware (Aaron Rodgers the MVP, Mike McCarthy Coach of the Year) on their way to winning the Super Bowl.

2. New Orleans Saints (2, 12-3, W, Atlanta Falcons): Have scored in 55 of 60 quarters they've played this season. Made it look easy against an Atlanta team that had won 7 of 9 coming into the Monday Night contest.

3. New England Patriots (3, 12-3, W, Miami Dolphins 27-24): Combining 30.9 ppg (3rd overall) with a bend-don't-break defense (dead last in total yards allowed but 14th in points allowed) make for a dangerous combination. Will it work in the playoffs this year?

4. San Francisco 49ers (4, 12-3, W, Seattle Seahawks 19-17): First in points allowed and 15th in points scored can be the formula for a good season and early playoff exit. Niners need to find ways to put points on the scoreboard.

5. Pittsburgh Steelers (6, 11-4, W, St. Louis Rams 27-0): A shutout in the NFL, even against the Rams, is always impressive. Winning by nearly four touchdowns with the backup is extremely impressive. The Steelers have the best weighted DVOA according to Football Outsiders -- even better than the Packers.

6. Baltimore Ravens (5, 11-4, W, Cleveland Browns 20-14): The Ravens have probably the best defense in the NFL: 3rd in points allowed (16.7 ppg), 3rd in net offensive yards per game (285.7 ypg), and 1st overall in defensive DVOA, a total defensive metric that rates what a team does compared to other teams in similar situations. That said, they could have lost to the Browns had not Seneca Wallace totally forget the game situation and call a running play in the red zone with time about to expire. It's good to be great, but great to be lucky.

7. Detroit Lions (9, 10-5, W, San Diego Chargers 38-10): The Lions are fourth overall in scoring (28.9 ppg), but actually they are feast or famine. In the past ten games they have scored 19 points or less five times and 28 or more five times: 38, 28, 34, 17. 15, 49, 13, 45, 16, 19. In fact only twice this year have they scored 20-26 points (26 and 24 points in weeks three and five respectively).

8. Atlanta Falcons (7, 9-6, L, New Orleans Saints): Atlanta is third in first quarter scoring (averaging 6.6 points) but is not in the top 14 for any other quarter, ranking 20th (second quarter), 15th (third), and 16th (fourth).

9. New York Giants (15, 8-7, W, New York Jets 29-14): Take away a somewhat lucky 99-yard pass play for score -- it should have been stopped but Victor Cruz broke a weak tackle before running 88 yards -- and Eli Manning had a terrible game against the Gang Green: eight completions out of 26 passes for 126 yards with a pick.

10. Dallas Cowboys (10, 8-7, L, Philadelphia Eagles 20-7): There are eight receivers/tight ends with at least nine touchdown catches and three teams have a pair of them: the Packers, Patriots, and Cowboys. The Boys are the only one of the trio not to have clinched a playoff spot. I count three, maybe four games that the Boys gave away because of terrible coaching, play calling and execution in the final quarter. They should have been able to rest their starters this weekend but instead they are in a win-and-their-in game against the Giants.

11. Philadelphia Eagles (16, 7-8, W, Dallas Cowboys 20-7): With their three-game winning streak going into the final weekend, Philly could finish second in the NFC East after playing extremely well and not giving the ball away in the second half.

12. Houston Texans (8, 9-6, L, Indianapolis Colts 19-16): Lost a pair in a row and now they probably see their chances at a first-round bye disappear. Worse, they make the playoffs for the first time in franchise history going in with a a near complete loss of confidence.

13. Cincinnati Bengals (14, 9-6, W, Arizona Cardinals 23-16): Play. Of. The. Year.

14. San Diego Chargers (11, 7-8, L, Detroit Lions 38-10): For once it wasn't a slow start that sunk the Bolts -- they began the season 4-1 and first in the AFC West after Week 5 -- but rather a mid-season six-game losing streak. It appears to have cost general manager A.J. Smith and coach Norv Turner their jobs.

15. New York Jets (12, 8-7, L, New York Giants 29-14): The defense has regressed slightly since last year (22.9 ppg allowed compared to 19.2 ppg last year) and their offense has improved slightly (24 ppg, up from 22.7 in 2010, good for ninth overall), but the Gang Green seem so much worst than last season. They can make the playoffs if they beat the Dolphins on Sunday and the Ravens beat the Bengals. Whether or not they play a 17th meaningful game this season, Rex Ryan should stop boasting.

16. Oakland Raiders (19, 8-7, W, Kansas City Chiefs 16-13 (OT)): Raiders could break the records for most penalties and penalty yards this weekend against San Diego.

17. Denver Broncos (13, 8-7, L, Buffalo Bills 40-14): Tebow Mania is officially dead, at least until further notice which will be in two weeks if the Broncs beat the Chiefs on Sunday and win the AFC West. The Broncs defense, which was keeping Denver close enough in games to put Tim Tebow in a position to lead five comeback wins this season, have allowed 40 and 41 points the past two weeks.

18. Seattle Seahawks (18, 7-8, L, San Francisco 49ers 19-17): They are giving up an average of 15.3 ppg over the last seven games, only twice giving up more than 19 points.

19. Arizona Cardinals (17, 7-8, L, Cincinnati Bengals 23-16): In a year in which most pundits thought the Cards would struggle to be relevant, they lost the starting quarterback they traded for (Kevin Kolb), had a chance for a playoff spot in the second last weekend of play, and could finish with a 500 record on the season. There is such a thing as moral victories.

20. Carolina Panthers (23, 6-9, W, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 48-16): Last year the Panthers were outscored by 212 points and this year they're outscoring opponents by five. The big reason: QB Cam Newton will be rookie of the year and WR Steve Smith is in legit Pro Bowl form (1308 yards).

21. Tennessee Titans (24, 8-7, W, Jacksonville Jaguars 23-17): They have the seventh ranked scoring defense (19.7 ppg) but they are just 23rd in scoring (20.1 ppg) and yet still have a chance to make the playoffs if a lot of things break their way on the final Sunday of the season.

22. Chicago Bears (20, 7-8, L, Green Bay Packers 35-21): They've lost five in a row and their playoff ticket since losing Jay Cutler in November.

23. Miami Dolphins (21, 5-10, L, New England Patriots 27-24): The Fins play opponents tough because of their 8th ranked scoring defense (less than 20 ppg). If they scored more during their season-opening seven-game losing streak -- when they scored more than 17 points just once -- they could have been a 500 team. They are good enough to deny the Jets a playoff spot when they meet this Sunday.

24. Kansas City Chiefs (22, 6-9, L, Oakland Raiders 16-13 (OT)): It is hard to believe with the anemic offense of the Chiefs that Kansas City was a perfect 4-0 in October and shared first in the AFC West going into November. That seems so long ago. They have averaged 9.625 ppg since the calendar flipped to November, including a six-game streak in which they didn't break 10 points in any game.

25. Buffalo Bills (27, 6-9, W, Denver Broncos 40-14): Scoring 40 points is a great way to end a seven-game losing streak.

26. Washington Redskins (25, 5-10, L, Minnesota Vikings 33-26): Skins have surrendered at least 33 points in three of their last four games after starting the season as decent defensive squad.

27. Jacksonville Jaguars (26, 4-11, L, Tennessee Titans 23-17): They are scoring 14.9 ppg (29th overall) which is 7.2 worse than 2010.

28. Minnesota Vikings (29, 3-12, W, Washington Redskins 33-26): The meaningless win was costly with RB Adrian Peterson suffering ACL and MCL injuries; he could miss the beginning of the 2012 season.

29. Cleveland Browns (28, 4-11, L, Baltimore Ravens 20-14): They had a chance to win in the fourth, but being the Browns they were tapped out of points at two scores (averaging 13.9 ppg this year).

30. Indianapolis Colts (32, 2-13, L, Houston Texans 19-16): They've won two in a row and are at risk of losing the top pick overall if they win in the final week.

31. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (30, 4-11, L, Carolina Panthers 48-16): The Bucs are 27th in scoring and dead last in points allowed. A good case could be made that they are the worst team in the NFL.

32. St. Louis Rams (31, 2-13, L, Pittsburgh Steelers 27-0): It could get worse for them with one game to go: the Rams have the worst offense in the NFL (11.1 ppg) and they face the stingiest defense (49ers) in the final week. Former first overall pick Sam Bradford could be on his way out of St. Louis if the Colts win this week and the Rams have the first overall pick.
posted by Paul Tuns at 8:49 AM

 
The Gerrys

Gerry Nicholls has handed out his political awards. Most recipients do not want the (dis)honour. Two of note:

The General Custer Strategy Prize

Winner: The political geniuses in the Opposition who thought toppling the minority federal Conservative government and running an election on the “ethics” issue was a winning game plan.

And:

The Boston Red Sox Award for blowing a big lead in September

Winner: Tim Hudak and the Progressive Conservatives.

The last award, however, was probably the best: the Houdini Disappearing Award. Read the post to see who it is and why.
posted by Paul Tuns at 10:53 PM

 
Have yourself a bullshitty little holiday -- it's Kwanza

A few days ago, Michael Taube wrote in the Ottawa Citizen noting that he, as a secular Jew, celebrates Christmas. Fine enough, but I didn't like the column. My biggest problem is Taube's suggestion that Kwanza be among the celebrations we mark this season. The problem is that Kwanza is BS. As Kathy Shaidle has noted, it is a made-up celebration of Black Power and Marxist politics created by Maulana Karenga, a Black Panther with a criminal record. It has no roots in Africa whatsoever. Strange that a former speechwriter for Canada's Conservative prime minister would want people to celebrate Kwanza. The best way to mark the fake Kwanza holiday is to recite the Night Before Kwanza by Kathy Shaidle.
posted by Paul Tuns at 8:34 PM

 
Merry Christmas

It has been a tradition of mine here at Sobering Thoughts to post a YouTube video of J.S. Bach's "Jesu Joy of Man's Desiring" each Christmas.

I hope you all have a Merry Christmas and Blessed New Year.


posted by Paul Tuns at 12:44 PM

 
The First Noel

The Birth of Christ

In those days Caesar Augustus issued a decree that a census should be taken of the entire Roman world. (This was the first census that took place while Quirinius was governor of Syria.) And everyone went to their own town to register.

So Joseph also went up from the town of Nazareth in Galilee to Judea, to Bethlehem the town of David, because he belonged to the house and line of David. He went there to register with Mary, who was pledged to be married to him and was expecting a child. While they were there, the time came for the baby to be born, and she gave birth to her firstborn, a son. She wrapped him in cloths and placed him in a manger, because there was no guest room available for them.

And there were shepherds living out in the fields nearby, keeping watch over their flocks at night. An angel of the Lord appeared to them, and the glory of the Lord shone around them, and they were terrified. But the angel said to them, “Do not be afraid. I bring you good news that will cause great joy for all the people. Today in the town of David a Savior has been born to you; he is the Messiah, the Lord. This will be a sign to you: You will find a baby wrapped in cloths and lying in a manger.”

Suddenly a great company of the heavenly host appeared with the angel, praising God and saying, “Glory to God in the highest heaven, and on earth peace to those on whom his favor rests.”

When the angels had left them and gone into heaven, the shepherds said to one another, “Let’s go to Bethlehem and see this thing that has happened, which the Lord has told us about.”

So they hurried off and found Mary and Joseph, and the baby, who was lying in the manger. When they had seen him, they spread the word concerning what had been told them about this child, and all who heard it were amazed at what the shepherds said to them. But Mary treasured up all these things and pondered them in her heart. The shepherds returned, glorifying and praising God for all the things they had heard and seen, which were just as they had been told.

-- Luke 2: 1-20

Here's "The First Noel" sang by the incomparable Ella Fitzgerald.


posted by Paul Tuns at 8:36 AM

 
Friday Flashback

My childhood Christmases featured a lot of Nana Mouskouri playing in the background. I think it was the official music of the Tuns family putting up the Christmas tree. Here's her version of "Old Toy Trains" which I prefer (just barely) to Roger Miller's original. (I always thought it was a shame that Roger Whittaker do this song despite the fact he recorded two Christmas albums.)


posted by Paul Tuns at 5:25 PM

 
Probably my favourite moment in Canadian TV history

Brian Lilley orders guest Warren Kinsella's mic to be turned off. Beautiful. Blazing Cat Fur has video and comment (showing that Kinsella's excited cries that Lilley is lying is, ahem, not quite honest).

Also, Kinsella complains that Lilley is being hypocritical because the host is a free speech supporter and yet turns off his mic. Advocates of free speech generally worry about government censorship, not the right of a private host to end the ridiculous behaviour of a guest.
posted by Paul Tuns at 11:50 PM

 
Four and down (Week 16 games to watch)

4 Atlanta Falcons (9-5) at New Orleans Saints (11-3): The Falcons are finally looking like the smooth offensive operation they were in 2010 when they were the top NFC seed. The Saints are the second most dangerous offense in the NFL. Expect lots of scoring with the Saints battling for a first-round bye and the Falcons fighting for a wild card spot. With a victory, it is possible for Atlanta to win the division if things break the right way in the final week. Great game Monday Night with plenty of seeding ramifications.

3. San Diego Chargers (7-7) at Detroit Lions (9-5): Both teams have a chance at the wild card and the Bolts have a chance to win their division, so this is a meaningful game. Both teams have the ability to put a lot of points on the board and both have the ability to self-destruct. San Diego has been great since they stopped passing the ball to opponents' defenders and have won three in a row by putting plenty of points on the scoreboard. Detroit snapped a 1-6 slide last week.

2. New York Giants (7-7) at New York Jets (8-6): It comes down to this: the winner probably gets into the playoffs and the loser probably does not. It isn't quite the simple, but the stakes for both sides are huge, maybe a little more so for the G-Men who have a losing record (3-4) at Metropolitan Life Stadium this season.

1. Philadelphia Eagles (6-8) at Dallas Cowboys (8-6): Technically, Philly still has a chance to win the division, but if nothing else, they'd like the chance to force Dallas into must-win against the New York Giants on the final weekend, which, with the right outcome, could see the Eagles making the playoffs instead. Both are strong offensive teams with opportunistic defenses and this contest will likely come down to which team makes the fewest mistakes. Lately, neither Michael Vick nor Tony Romo has been making them, which means the game should be a good one.
posted by Paul Tuns at 9:04 AM

 
Me in the Edmonton Journal

My Ottawa Citizen column, "Learn to cut like Chretien," has been picked up by the Edmonton Journal and published under the headline, "Chretien set prudent fiscal example."
posted by Paul Tuns at 7:17 AM

 
Week 15 Power Rankings

(Last week's power ranking, season record, and this week's result in parenthesis)

1. Green Bay Packers (1, 13-1, L, Kansas City Chiefs 19-14): The 13-game winning streak -- and 19 meaningful consecutive wins going back to the playoffs and last season -- ended, as did their 19-game streak of never being behind in the fourth quarter. Indeed, prior to this game, the Packers were behind for just 103 minutes all season; against the Chiefs, they were behind for 55 minutes. They are still the best team in pro football.

2. New Orleans Saints (3, 11-3, W, Minnesota Vikings 42-20): The Drew Brees-led offense is scary. Before resting late in the game, the quarterback was 32 for 40 for 412 yards with 5 TDs and is just 304 yards away from breaking Dan Marino's record for most yards in a season -- with two games remaining.

3. New England Patriots (6, 11-3, W, New England Patriots 41-23): They solved the Tebows and along with the Saints they hold the longest current winning streak (six).

4. San Francisco 49ers (5, 11-3, W, Pittsburgh Steelers 20-3): They are a league-leading +25 in turnover differential and first in scoring defense. Niners haven't allowed a rushing TD all season; every other team has given up at least six.

5. Baltimore Ravens (2, 10-4, L, San Diego Chargers 34-14): They were dominated by the Bolts. Dominated. Still, they are on pace to finish in the top four in scoring defense for four consective seasons.

6. Pittsburgh Steelers (4, 10-4, L, San Francisco 49ers 20-3): A gimpy Ben Roethlisberger couldn't get the offense going and turned the ball over four times.

7. Atlanta Falcons (10, 9-5, W, Jacksonville Jaguars 41-14): They have scored at least 23 points in eight of their last nine games and 72 points combined in the last two games.

8. Houston Texans (7, 9-5, L, Carolina Panthers 28-13): It isn't that the Texans probably lose out on a first-round bye with their decisive loss to the Panthers, but perhaps have lost some confidence going into the playoffs.

9. Detroit Lions (11, 9-5, W, Oakland Raiders 28-27): Finished the game with 14 unanswered points and the Lions have their first nine-win season since 1997. Their 28.2 ppg is almost six points a game more than last year.

10. Dallas Cowboys (12, 8-6, W, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 31-15): Tony Romo has not thrown an interception in six of his last seven games. Boys are back on top of the NFC West and they now control their own destiny.

11. San Diego Chargers (16, 7-7, W, Baltimore Ravens 34-14): In their past three games, the Bolts have scored at least 34 points per game and given up fewer than 14. Their margin of victory over their three-game winning streak: +23.7.

12. New York Jets (8, 8-6, L, Philadelphia Eagles 45-19): This doesn't seem right: the Gang Green are scoring 24.7 ppg (7th overall) and allowing 22.5 ppg (21st overall).

13. Denver Broncos (9, 8-6, L, New England Patriots 41-23): For once Tim Tebow put points on the board early, scoring 16 points in 17 minutes. But it wasn't Tebow's inability to pass that lost the Broncs the game but the offense turning the ball over twice on fumbles in their own half of the field giving Tom Brady a short field on which the Pats scored both times. The defense was also non-existent.

14. Cincinnati Bengals (15, 8-6, W, St. Louis Rams 20-13): Cincy has the third-best road record this season: 5-3. Unfortunately for them, they play the rest of the season at home.

15. New York Giants (13, 7-7, L, Washington Redskins 23-10): Eli Manning had threw three picks, including one in the end zone, which is why they lost against the Skins. The reason they are only 500 despite Manning's best season: the fifth worst scoring defense: 26.6 ppg.

16. Philadelphia Eagles (20, 6-8, W, New York Jets, 45-19): If they win the last two games (including against Cowboys this weekend), the Giants lose this week and New York beats Dallas on the final weekend, Philly wins the NFC East and goes to the playoffs despite starting 1-4 and 3-6.

17. Arizona Cardinals (19, 7-7, W, Cleveland Browns 20-17 (OT)): QB John Skelton has put together back-to-back come-from-behind victories. Cards have won six of seven.

18. Seattle Seahawks (22, 7-7, W, Chicago Bears 38-14): They are 5-1 in their last six and have an outside chance at the playoffs. RB Marshawn Lynch has quietly collected 11 rushing TDs.

19. Oakland Raiders (17, 7-7, L, Detroit Lions 28-27): The Raiders are a 500 team, but have allowed 65 more points than they've scored.

20. Chicago Bears (14, 7-7, L, Seattle Seahawks 38-14): Injuries to QB Jay Cutler, RB Matt Forte, and, now, WR Johnny Knox, have probably sunk their playoff chances. Watching Caleb Hanie play the last few weeks, you have to wonder if Da Bears regret not signing Donovan McNabb to play quarterback down the stretch. Caleb Hanie in four starts: four losses, nine interceptions, Bears scoring 11.8 ppg.

21. Miami Dolphins (21, 5-9, W, Buffalo Bills 30-21): RB Reggie Bush had 203 rushing yards, including a a 76-yard scoring run, the third 100-yard effort in four games.

22. Kansas City Chiefs (25, 6-8, W, Green Bay Packers 19-14): Who would have predicted that the Chiefs would be the ones to end the Packers' perfect season. Yet, they could have done better. In their four trips to the Green Bay red zone, they were kept to three field goals and they turned it over on downs. Seems churlish to criticize KC after a victory over GB, but their offense wasn't able to finish the job. The Chiefs are not mathematically eliminated from the playoffs despite giving up 127 more points than they've scored.

23. Carolina Panthers (23, 5-9, W, Houston Texans 28-13): The Panthers are 5-0 when they keep opponents to 20 points or less and are 0-9 in games in which opponents score 24 or more.

24. Tennessee Titans (18, 7-7, L, Indianapolis Colts 27-13): The Titans should be 500. They have allowed 19.9 ppg (8th overall) and scored 19.9 ppg (24th overall).

25. Washington Redskins (27, 5-9, W, New York Giants 23-10): The Skins swept the season series against the G-Men by a combined 27 points.

26. Jacksonville Jaguars (24, 4-10, L, Atlanta Falcons 41-14): In week 14, Jax beat Tampa Bay 41-14. In week 15, the Falcons defeated the Jags 41-14. In past five games, the Jags have scored 14 points twice and twice kept opponents to 14 points.

27. Buffalo Bills (26, 5-9, L, Miami Dolphins 30-23): Losers of seven in a row, averaging just 14.3 ppg over that stretch.

28. Cleveland Browns (28, 4-10, L, Arizona Cardinals 20-17 (OT)): The Browns are averaging just 13.9 ppg (3rd worst in the league) and the 17 points they scored this week is the second most they've had since scoring that amount in Week 6.

29. Minnesota Vikings (30, 2-12, L, New Orleans Saints 42-20): They allow 29 ppg, most in the NFL, and 33.3 ppg over the past nine games and 37 ppg over the past three. Yes, their defense is deteroriating. Opposing QBs have a passer rating of 110.81, which means against the Vikes, every quarterback in Drew Brees.

30. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (29, 4-10, L, Dallas Cowboys 31-15): Now that Indy has won a game, the Bucs have the longest current losing streak (eight). Over the past two games, they had a 17 offensive drive streak that did not produce a point; in that stretch they punted eight times, fumbled twice, were picked four times, turned it over on downs once, and held the ball at the end of the half twice. They also allowed 68 unanswered points. They started the season 4-2.

31. St. Louis Rams (31, 2-12, L, Cincinnati Bengals 20-13): They have scored 13 or fewer points in six of their last seven games -- scoring precisely 13 points four times over that stretch -- and they finish the season against the second stingiest defense (Pittsburgh) this week and stingiest defense (San Francisco) in the final week.

32. Indianapolis Colts (32, 1-13, W, Tennessee Titans 27-13): Not only did Indy win, they did so easily. Also, for the first time in which starting quarterback Dan Orlovsky appeared in a game, his team won.
posted by Paul Tuns at 9:02 PM

 
'Learn to cut like Chretien'

I'm in the Ottawa Citizen today writing about Jean Chretien as a model for budget cutting. My main point is that it is not enough to slow the rate of growth and hope for revenues to grow the government out of deficit. Programs need to be eliminated, cut, and changed. That's what Jean Chretien did:

Chrétien had named intergovernmental affairs minister Marcel Massé, a former secretary of the Privy Council, to chair the cabinet's Program Review Committee. Massé's experience in the public service led him to conclude across-theboard cuts would be ineffective. Instead, Massé subjected every program to six tests including whether it served the public interest and whether it could be better delivered by the provinces or private sector. He came back to cabinet with plans to eliminate unnecessary programs and radically reform others.

According to the 1995 Finance Department Budget Briefing, most departments outside justice and health were cut by more than 10 per cent: veterans' affairs was cut by 11 per cent, environment 32 per cent, human resource development 35 per cent, agriculture 40 per cent, natural resources 49 per cent, regional agencies 49 per cent, and transport 51 per cent.

In my book, Jean Chretien: A Legacy of Scandal, I criticized Chretien for abandoning his principles to balance the budget. I said a Liberal would never be proud of his "accomplishment" of reducing the size of government because they believe in grand visions, not economic sanity. I have since changed my mind.
posted by Paul Tuns at 7:18 AM

 
Red Toryism is still alive ... in the minds of pundits

Post Media columnist Michael Den Tandt says the slide into irrelevance of the Liberal Party of Canada means there is room for Red Toryism again. He says Jim Prentice, the banker and former Harper cabinet minister, is the perfect standard-bearer for the Red Tories, a wing of the party that barely exists outside the halls of corporate power within the Toronto-Ottawa-Montreal axis. If Stephen Harper is so extreme or hardline and he won a majority, perhaps the re-emergence of the Joe Clark-wing of the old PC Party is not what the Conservatives need; it might be, however, precisely the type of thing that benefits the Liberals. When the choice is between real Liberals and faux (Red Tory) Liberals, Canadians prefer the real thing. The pundit love affair with the small, discredited, politically impotent Red Tories needs to be seen for what it is: a stalking horse for liberalism, and perhaps even the Liberal Party.
posted by Paul Tuns at 8:57 AM

 
Anti-communist hero dies

Vaclav Havel, playwright and former Czech president, has passed away. The Daily Telegraph has an obit and the New York Sun has an editorial.
posted by Paul Tuns at 10:59 PM

 
Wehner on Hitchens

I liked Peter Wehner's remembrances of the late Christopher Hitchens. I found this anecdote both insightful and touching:

The first [memory] is when I served in the George W. Bush White House and, in the first term, invited Christopher to speak to the White House staff. He spoke very well, of course, but what I most recall are a couple of things that occurred before the speech. The first is standing with him outside of the Eisenhower Executive Office Building. He had gone out to smoke, which wasn’t unusual — and he confided to me that he was nervous, which was. The words “Christopher Hitchens” and “nervous” don’t usually belong in the same sentence. He also wore a tie, which he indicated to me he hadn’t done in years — and, he told me, he had gotten his shoes shined before the speech, which he didn’t recall ever having had done.

It wasn’t hard for me to fit the pieces together. Christopher felt it was an honor for him, a British citizen, to speak at the White House. For all his reputation for being a bon vivant, an iconoclast, and a man not known for his devotion to protocol, he was in fact quite moved to be a guest at one of the great symbols of American democracy. It was, I thought, something of a touching moment.

posted by Paul Tuns at 8:39 PM

 
I don't care if he is the "hot-yet-crazy chick every guy wants to f**k at least once of American politics"*

Ron Paul's Moneybomb promo video.



* The description is from Five Feet of Fury.
posted by Paul Tuns at 12:20 PM

 
Electability

National Review Online says Republican voters should eschew Newt Gingrich as their party's presidential standard-bearer in 2012 because he is not electable. I would urge primary voters to not put too much stock into electability. The Democrats threw Howard Dean under the bus in favour of John Kerry because the former was not electable. Kerry lost. Here in Ontario, twice Jim Flaherty was by-passed as leader by Progressive Conservative voters because he wasn't electable, but presumably Ernie Eves and John Tory were. Needless to say they both lost. I recall pundits saying Stephen Harper was a caretaker for the new Conservative Party of Canada because he wasn't electable, at least not while Paul Martin was Prime Minister. Harper has been Prime Minister for nearly six years.

Electability is often the kiss of death from pundits who make calculations that may or may not be in effect when the general public votes. Too often voters are advised to go for the candidate who has softer edges (admittedly, this is not entirely NRO's basis for opposition), when in reality they have no idea how voters will react to individual candidates during the harsh spotlight of the general election campaign. There is a case for and against Newt Gingrich and his personal life and political history warn against entrusting the Republican nomination with the former House Speaker, but these are prudential considerations in their own right aside from how they might affect voters next November.
posted by Paul Tuns at 8:58 AM

 
Four and down (games to watch Week 15)

4. Detroit Lions (8-5) at Oakland Raiders (7-6): The Lions currently hold a wild card ticket but with a 2-5 slide, they are suddenly facing stiff competition from a number of up-and-coming teams including the Cardinals and Seahawks and whoever doesn't win the NFC East (Giants or Cowboys). The Raiders have lost two in a row and have dropped from the top spot in the AFC West but are only a game behind the Denver Broncos and the wild card contenders. The Lions have a potent offense and face a Raiders team that has surrendered 80 points the past two weeks. Notably, the Lions and Raiders are the two most penalized teams, so indiscipline could affect the outcome of this important game. Detroit edges past the Raiders with Carson Palmer continuing to throw too many interceptions.

3. Baltimore Ravens (10-3) at San Diego Chargers (6-7): This contest pits superior defense and good offense (Ravens) against a strong offense and better-than-adequate defense (Chargers). San Diego has stopped turning over the ball but Philip Rivers faces an opportunistic Ravens D that gets linebacker Ray Lewis back this week. The Bolts are trying to make December magic happen again and they are only two games out of first in the AFC West. A win and they still have a chance but a loss and a Denver victory and they are eliminated. The Ravens are gunning for the AFC North title and possibly a first-round bye. A good game with lots of playoff implications.

2. New England Patriots (10-3) at Denver Broncos (8-5): This game is all about narrative: the Tebows vs. Belichick. Both are division leaders and could face each other in the playoffs, but first Tim Tebow will see if he can beat the Patriots bend-but-don't-break defense. My guess is that Bill Belichick can stop the Tebow comeback but Denver's strong defense should keep Tom Brady's offense in check. Expect a close one, but the Pats come out on top.

1. Pittsburgh Steelers (10-3) at San Francisco 49ers (10-3): The Monday Night contest features not only a pair of 10-3 teams -- the only game this weekend to do so -- but the two stingiest defenses in the NFL, the only two teams to allow less than 200 points so far this year. The Niners have lost two of their past three with an anemic offense and Ben Roethlisberger seems to always follow have a big game when injuries make him a questionable start, so I expect the Steelers to win despite being without suspended linebacker James Harrison.
posted by Paul Tuns at 8:54 AM

 
Week 14 Power Rankings

(Last week's power ranking, season record, and this week's result in parenthesis)

1. Green Bay Packers (1, 13-0, W, Oakland Raiders 46-16): In the 13th game of the season, the Packers have broken the team record for most points scored in team history. Their 35.8 ppg is 4.1 ppg higher than last year's highest scoring team, the Patriots.

2. Baltimore Ravens (2, 10-3, W, Indianapolis Colts 24-10): The combination of a good offense (ninth highest scoring in the NFL) and dominant defense (third overall, 15.5 ppg) makes for a team that can beat any team any time. They look like eventual AFC champions.

3. New Orleans Saints (4, 10-3, W, Tennessee Titans 22-17): Winners of five in a row, the Saints have scored less than 21 points only once this season and that was in a 26-20 loss in Week 6.

4. Pittsburgh Steelers (5, 10-3, W, Cleveland Browns 14-3): Third game in a row that they kept opponents to single-digit scoring during which they have restricted opponents to 6.3 ppg. The only team to score more than 20 points against them in any game is the Baltimore Ravens (35 in Week 1 and 23 in Week 9).

5. San Francisco 49ers (3, 10-3, L, Arizona Cardinals 21-19): The Cards have been tougher than people might have guessed, but losing their second game in three weeks has given the Saints a good chance to finish second overall. Niners are barely out gaining opponents (4017 to 3966 yards) but they are an impressive +21 in turnover differential.

6. New England Patriots (6, 10-3, W, Washington Redskins 34-27): They score 30.5 ppg (third overall) and their bend-but-don't-break defense allows just 21.1 ppg (14th overall) despite a league-worst 416.0 yards per game allowed. That said, they surrendered 27 points to an anemic Skins offense and allowed the Colts to score 21 points in junk time the week before.

7. Houston Texans (7, 9-3, W, Cincinnati Bengals 20-19): Winners of seven straight, including three games in which T.J. Yates either started or played a significant portion of the game.

8. New York Jets (8, 8-5, W, Kansas City Chiefs 37-10): Winners of six of their last eight, they've allowed just 17.7 ppg over their last three games possibly showing signs that they are finding their old dominant defense.

9. Denver Broncos (9, 8-5, W, Chicago Bears 17-10 (OT)): If Tim Tebow won this game, it is because he dressed up like Marion Barber and ran out of bounds to stop the clock to preserve time for the Broncs in the final two minutes and again donned the Barber uniform to fumble the ball in overtime. Denver didn't win this contest as much as Chicago lost it, but under Tebow the Broncs are 6-1 with five fourth-quarter come-from-behind victories.

10. Atlanta Falcons (12, 8-5, W, Carolina Panthers 31-23): I've only watched two complete Falcons games this year so I can't tell you what is right and wrong with this team because the stats indicate they are a top of the middle-tier team. They are maddeningly inconsistent and looked poised to lose to the Panthers until they scored 20 unanswered second-half points.

11. Detroit Lions (13, 8-5, W, Minnesota Vikings 34-28): Were it not for second-year quarterback Joe Webb's fumble on the last Vikes possession, Detroit might have lost this game. Following their 6-0 start they've continued to put up points but have too many losses, too many close wins against poor opponents, and too many penalties to be take seriously as a top 10 team. And they allow too many points: in their past five games, the Lions are allowing 32.67 ppg.

12. Dallas Cowboys (10, 7-6, L, New York Giants 37-34): A blocked field goal away from going into overtime and possibly taking a solid lead in the NFC East, they are now behind the Giants on the tie-breaker and could face a must-win game in the final week against New York. Lots of blame to around for Sunday's loss, but they almost won and can't be written off yet despite back-to-back losses by a field goal or less.

13. New York Giants (18, 7-6, W, Dallas Cowboys 37-34): G-Men end their four-game losing streak with a three-point win over the NFC East-leading Cowboys and take over as division leaders. While Eli Manning and his Giants played their best game in over a month, it is far from certain that they've turned a corner.

14. Chicago Bears (11, 7-6, L, Denver Broncos 17-10 (OT)): Although they are 21st overall in total yards (319.6 ypg) this season, with Caleb Hanie under center the past three games, they are averaging 275.7. Despite scoring 23.2 ppg on the season, they have only scored 33 points in their past three games. Unless they get some offense and quick, they can kiss their wild card ticket good-bye.

15. Cincinnati Bengals (14, 7-6, L, Houston Texans 20-19): They have lost four of the past five games and blew a 16-3 first half lead against the Texans on Sunday. Their once top-four defense is now allowing 20.8 ppg (12th overall) after permitting at least 20 points in each of the last five contests including their 23-20 victory over the Browns.

16. San Diego Chargers (19, 6-7, W, Buffalo Bills 37-10): On the strength of a strongish offense (24.9 ppg), despite a sub-500 record, the Bolts are outscoring opponents by nearly two points a game. Over the past two games, they've outscored opponents 75-24. San Diego isn't quite out of the AFC West division title yet as they finally look like they've got their act together. Over the past decade, only the Patriots have a better record in December, so who knows?

17. Oakland Raiders (15, 7-6, L, Green Bay Packers 46-16): Despite their above 500 record, the Raiders are being outscored by 64 points on the season.

18. Tennessee Titans (17, 7-6, L, New Orleans Saints 22-17): Going deep on a third-and-one while down by five with three minutes on the clock is questionable because the important thing was getting the new set of downs. So they missed the touchdown pass, came up short on fourth-and-one, and turned the ball back over to the Drew Brees offense. Titans have the sixth best scoring defense (19.3 ppg) but stupid coaching decisions like that will lose games.

19. Arizona Cardinals (21, 6-7, W, San Francisco 49ers 21-19): Cards have won three in a row (and five of six) including beating the Niners, who had the second-best record in the NFL coming into the game.

20. Philadelphia Eagles (24, 5-8, W, Miami Dolphins 26-10): Philly is 15th in scoring and 22nd in points allowed but even with their three-games under 500 record, they can still win the NFC East if they win out and both the Giants and Cowboys go 1-2.

21. Miami Dolphins (16, 4-9, L, Philadelphia Eagles 26-10): Until facing the Eagles, Miami hadn't played a bad game in two months. Coach Tony Sparano did not deserve to be fired because the Fins played extremely competitive football for the majority of the season. Other than Bill Belichick, who could win with Chad Henne or Matt Moore playing under center or running back Reggie Bush running sideways as often as he runs frontwards?

22. Seattle Seahawks (22, 6-7, W, St. Louis Rams 30-13): 'Hawks have won four of five and with games against a reeling Niners, Da Bears and the Cards, a 500 season is more than possible.

23. Carolina Panthers (23, 4-9, L, Atlanta Falcons 31-23): Gave up 24 second-half answered points to lose a game that looked like they were going to upset. At least Carolina has been in games this year and they have the probable offensive rookie of the year in QB Cam Newton.

24. Jacksonville Jaguars (27, 4-9, W, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 41-14): The offense-challenged Jags have only scored more than 14 points thrice this season and have never scored more than 20, so their 41-point outburst was unexpected.

25. Kansas City Chiefs (20, 5-8, L, New York Jets 37-10): Two numbers: nine and four. In their eight losses, KC has averaged just nine points scored. They had just four yards of net offense against the Jets in the first half. Those are terrible offensive numbers.

26. Buffalo Bills (25, 5-8, L, San Diego Chargers 37-10): It isn't enough to point out they are 1-7 after staring 4-1; they are comprehensively terrible and in San Diego the Bills looked like they have given up. Fans on radio call-in shows are wondering why they didn't lose at the beginning of the season and have a chance at Andrew Luck with the first pick overall, although 1) Buffalo's problem go deeper than lacking a good quarterback and 2) they would never spend the money on Luck necessary to get him.

27. Washington Redskins (26, 4-9, L, New England Patrots 34-27): On the plus side, they discovered they have an offense, averaging more than 23 points a game over the past four contests. On the negative side, their relatively stout defense was powerless to stop the mighty Patriots.

28. Cleveland Browns (29, 4-9, L, Pittsburgh Steelers 14-3): It says a lot that even though they knocked Ben Roethlisberger out of the game (for most of the second quarter although Big Ben returned in the second half) and Pittsburgh needed a late fourth quarter touchdown to ice the game, Cleveland was never a threat to win this game.

29. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (28, 4-9, L, Jacksonville Jaguars 41-14): Lost seven in a row although five of those were against Quality Opponents (teams above 500). But allowing the offensively challenged Jags to put 41 on the board is unconscionable.

30. Minnesota Vikings (30, 2-11, L, Detroit Lions 34-28): Scored a touchdown in every quarter and were yards away from the red zone with seconds left and a chance to win. Bad teams find ways to lose games.

31. St. Louis Rams (31, 2-11, L, Seattle Seahawks 30-13): Unlike the 2-11 Vikes, the Rams simply suck. Were it not for an injury to Peyton Manning, they'd have to decide whether to stick with second-year QB Sam Bradford who isn't much (6 TDs and 6 interceptions) and trade the first pick overall or draft Andrew Luck and cut their ties to their former #1 overall pick.

32. Indianapolis Colts (32, 0-13, L, Baltimore Ravens 24-10): Andrew Luck might not have won the Heisman Trophy but he will still look great in a Colts uniform. What happens on-the-field in Indy no longer matters. Next week the Colts could clinch the first overall 2012 draft pick.
posted by Paul Tuns at 7:19 PM

 
Hudak, like most on the Right, can't admit the truth

Ontario Progressive Conservative leader Tim Hudak said in an email to supporters:

Ontario voters sent a clear message that they want their elected representatives to focus on reducing the size and cost of government.

I got the message, but clearly Dalton McGuinty just doesn’t get it.

Actually, Dalton McGuinty was re-elected and the socialist NDP also increased their seat total so I don't think Ontarians "sent a clear message" about anything in the last provincial election.

As for Hudak's National Post piece about Ontario becoming the next Greece, he could be right but he hasn't offered alternatives to McGuinty's disastrous course. During the election, Hudak promised to grow health and education spending by 6% over the next two years -- the same level as the McGuinty Liberals said they would. If McGuinty did what is necessary and not merely slow the growth of health and education spending to inflation and population growth, Hudak would be screaming bloody murder. Indeed, in the NP, Hudak implies cutting health and education if off limits:

I have put forward a fiscal plan to eliminate $5.5-billion in annual spending by 2015. While protecting health care and education, I proposed an annual 2% decrease in spending everywhere else. Any small business could find 2% savings with little effort. Only at Queen’s Park is that a radical idea.

The problem is cutting 2% of the 80% of the budget that is not health, education and interest payments is way to modest. Sure public sector salaries and pensions need to be reined in, but that is insufficient. Hudak says Ontario must decide what is a must-have program and nice-to-have program. True. But if Ontario is going the way of Greece, socialized health care and education are nice-to-have programs.

My patience with the Right in both Canada and the United States is wearing thin. Leftists are thieves, but the Right is full of liars. So-called conservative politicians do not want to admit to voters that their cherished programs are not sustainable.
posted by Paul Tuns at 8:37 AM

 
Chretien returns as scaremonger

From a Liberal fundraising letter signed by former prime minister Jean Chretien:

The Conservatives have already ended gun control and Kyoto. Next may be a woman’s right to choose, or gay marriage. Then might come capital punishment. And one by one, the values we cherish as Canadians will be gone.

Well, one can hope.

Three other points.

1) It is notable that the Liberals single tool as a political party is raising flags about the Conservatives (and to a lesser degree, the NDP).

2) The Liberals may have signed Kyoto but GHG emissions increased under their government after they did so. It was a meaningless gesture.

3) Chretien should say "the values we cherish as Liberals will be gone." It is arrogant to suggest that those with other values -- pro-life, pro-traditional morality, pro-gun ownership, pro-free enterprise -- are somehow not Canadian or that these values are not Canadian.
posted by Paul Tuns at 8:51 AM

 
Four and down

4. The Kansas City Chiefs were a surprising 10-6 AFC West winner last year on a soft schedule. This year, they had a tough schedule and struggled to a 5-8 record so far this year. Coach Todd Haley was scape-goated and fired Monday. I don't think Haley is a very good coach: too much anger, too many theatrics, not enough leveraging his best players. I would have fired him after last season despite the surprisingly good winning record and division title because he didn't use his running backs properly: Jamal Charles had 230 carries for an average gain of 6.4 yards yet he gave Thomas Jones, who averaged 3.7 yards per rushing attempt, 245 carries. But I don't see how Haley is the cause of the Chiefs losing. It isn't his fault that Jamal Charles got hurt in the first game or Matt Cassel went down last month. It isn't his fault the Chiefs are playing a first-place schedule. It isn't his fault that KC over-payed to get Matt Cassel and that the teams lacks decent receivers. But someone had to be blamed and coaches get scapegoated while general managers avoid responsibility for putting their coaching personnel in positions to fail. Happens all the time. There is no cosmic injustice because Haley is a decent offensive coordinator and bad coach so he'll end up with a team that better fits his skills, but the Chiefs probably wouldn't be in the divisional hunt this year if someone else -- anyone else -- was under the headset for Kansas City.

3. It isn't Haley's fault, although he is considering an offensive-minded coach, but KC had only four net yards of offense against the Jets on Sunday in the first half of the game. Gang Green's defense is good but not that good.

2. The Miami Dolphins fired their coach Tony Sparano and despite the 4-9 record, Sparano had his team playing extremely competitive football. They started 0-7 and were 4-2 in their past six games; three of their last four losses were by three points or less. Sparano had a 29-32 record in his nearly four seasons with the Fins and got a lot more out of a talent-deficient team than most coaches could have. Until this week's massacre at the hands of the Eagles, they played extremely well after their Week 6 loss to the New York Jets. The Fins need a quarterback (Chad Penne and Matt Moore are no better than adequate backups), a reliable running back (Reggie Bush is not a 20-25 carry back), and some regression back to last year's promising defense. Sparano deserved the chance to steer this team back to playoffs with some real players. But again, with poor attendance and baseball's Miami Marlins making a free agent splash, the Fins needed to show they were doing something. Unfortunately, it was the wrong thing. I'm not sure Sparano is a great coach and I doubt he will get another chance to lead a team, but he was the right coach for Miami. One can only hope that the football gods punish Miami with a record more befitting the talent the team has assembled and saddled their coaching staff with; then people will realize that Sparano got as much out of the 2008-2011 Miami Dolphins as he could and that back-to-back losing seasons were not his fault.

1. The New York Giants/Dallas Cowboys game was one of the best of the year -- if not the best game of the year so far -- featuring eight lead changes and the G-Men denying a game-tying Cowboys field goal with a block in the final seconds of the game. The Giants came from behind for the fifth time this year for the 37-34 win. With the Giants victory in Dallas, New York now controls its own playoff fate as they are now tied with the Boys and hold the first tie-breaker (winning their sole head-to-head so far). And another thing: the Giants are 3-0 in the new Jerry Jones Stadium since it opened in 2009.
posted by Paul Tuns at 8:48 AM

 
Education is bad for creativity

Alex Tabarrok has an excellent post (with excellent links) that explore the topic based on a study that shows teachers don't like creative kids. The reason is simple, as Tabarrok notes:

Creative people, for better and worse, ignore social conventions. Thus, it can be hard for teachers to deal with creative students in a classroom setting where they must guide 20-30 students en masse.

posted by Paul Tuns at 8:54 AM

 
Week 13 Power Rankings

(Last week's power ranking, season record, and this week's result in parenthesis)

1. Green Bay Packers (1, 12-0, W, New York Giants 38-35): Three-quarters of the season they are perfect.

2. Baltimore Ravens (2, 9-3, W, Cleveland Browns 24-10): Their +8.7 scoring margin (6th overall) is a full three points more than they had last year.

3. San Francisco 49ers (3, 10-2, W, St. Louis Rams 26-0): They have scored 127 more points than their opponents and were the first team to clinch their division.

4. New Orleans Saints (5, 9-3, W, Detroit Lions 31-17): Drew Brees, who has won Offensive Player of the Week thrice already this season, had another great game worthy of that title: 26/36, 342 yards and 3 TDs.

5. Pittsburgh Steelers (6, 9-3, W, Cincinnati Bengals 35-7): Through the first nine games, Pittsburgh had forced just four turnovers (interceptions and forced fumbles), but they have eight in the last three games. Steelers are 9-2 after their opening loss and two of their three losses come at the hands of the Ravens. The team is on a roll but their two losses against the Ravens probably mean the Steelers can do no better than a fifth-seed (wild card) playoff spot.

6. New England Patriots (4, 9-3, W, Indianapolis Colts 31-24): Great offense, but giving up three TDs in fourth quarter, even when the final 15 minutes is junk time, is too much.

7. Houston Texans (7, 9-3, W, Atlanta Falcons 17-10): Texans won with their third-string QB against a team that was the best in the AFC in 2010. In fact, despite injuries Houston has won six in a row, the second-longest current streak after the perfect Packers.

8. New York Jets (14, 7-5, W, Washington Redskins 34-19): The game was tied at 13 going into the fourth quarter and then they put the foot on the accelerator against a top ten defense.

9. Denver Broncos (15, 7-5, W, Minnesota Vikings 35-32): In the final three minutes the Tebows tied it on their second last drive and won it on their last (following a pick). Denver is tied for the AFC West division lead after going 6-1 with Tebow under center, and their five-game winning streak is the third longest in the NFL right now.

10. Dallas Cowboys (8, 7-5, L, Arizona Cardinals 19-13 (OT)): Romo-in-December is not analysis and it is hard to pin the loss on Tony Romo who didn't have an interception (almost unheard of in a Dallas loss this year), but the calendar changed and the Boys promptly lost to a not very good team. Half of their final games are against the New York Giants.

11. Chicago Bears (9, 7-5, L, Kansas City Chiefs 10-3): Losing Jay Cutler is bad enough, but with RB Matt Forte early in the Chiefs game is devastating. Injuries are killing Da Bears playoff chances with Chicago suffering back-to-back losses. QB Caleb Hanie had three interceptions.

12. Atlanta Falcons (10, 7-5, L, Houston Texans 17-10): Statistically, Matt Ryan wasn't as good as Texans backup and rookie QB T.J. Yates. Statistically, the Falcons are a top of the mid-level team and they find themselves tied for a wild card spot, but losses to teams like the weakened Texans could cost them a return to the playoffs.

13. Detroit Lions (11, 7-5, L, New Orleans Saints 31-17): The Lions have lost five of seven and for the second week in a row and they self-destructed with penalties. How often does one player -- WR Nate Burleson -- get three offensive pass interference penalties? Lions are 2-5 over their past seven games.

14. Cincinnati Bengals (13, 7-5, L, Pittsburgh Steelers 35-7): Three of their five losses have come at the hands of the AFC North elite and while the first two were close, they were trounced by the Steelers Sunday. Indeed, it was their first loss by more than a touchdown. Their final four includes the Texans and Ravens and a tough Arizona Cardinals team as a wild card berth now seems optimistic.

15. Oakland Raiders (12, 7-5, L, Miami Dolphins 34-14): Three weeks ago football pundits were crowning the Raiders the AFC West champs but instead of worrying about the Chargers, Oakland has lost its place atop the division to the Broncos and they only scored against the Fins in the fourth quarter once they were already trailing 34-0.

16. Miami Dolphins (18, 4-8, W, Oakland Raiders 34-14): Fins got off to a 34-0 lead in the third quarter and despite the sub-500 record, have played good football since the calendar flipped from September to October going 4-3 and out-scoring opponents by more than 100 points.

17. Tennessee Titans (17, 7-5, W, Buffalo Bills 23-17): Through the first eight games, Chris Johnson averaged 45.75 yards per game, and that included a 101-yard effort in Week 4. In the last four games, Johnson has three games with at least 130 rushing yards.

18. New York Giants (16, 6-6, L, Green Bay Packers 38-35): The G-Men are football's only 500 team but they are -28 in scoring differential.

19. San Diego Chargers (20, 5-7, W, Jacksonville Jaguars 38-14): Nothing cures a six-game losing streak like facing a team that just made a coaching change.

20. Kansas City Chiefs (22, 5-7, W, Chicago Bears 10-3): The Chiefs beat the back-up Bears team because Tyler Palko's 38-yard Hail Mary at the end of the first half found Dexter McCluster in the end zone.

21. Arizona Cardinals (23, 5-7, W, Dallas Cowboys 19-13 (OT)): The Cards have quietly put together a decent record despite poor overall stats and they beat the NFC East division leader in overtime.

22. Seattle Seahawks (24, 5-7, W, Philadelphia Eagles 31-14): 'Hawks have won three of four, but with San Fran's win Sunday, Seattle can't win the NFC West. They could have their sights on the wild card with the Lions, Giants, Falcons, and Bears struggling.

23. Carolina Panthers (26, 4-8, W, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 38-19): Panthers had a touchdown in every quarter to double up the Bucs and QB Cam Newton broke the three-decade old quarterback rushing touchdown record with his 3 TD running game, bringing his season total to 13.

24. Philadelphia Eagles (19, 4-8, L, Seattle Seahawks 31-14): Vince Young threw four picks against the 'Hawks, adding to Philly's turnover woes -- last in offensive turnovers (29) and last in turnover differential (-13). Seattle scored following every interception: two pick-sixes and two touchdowns on the possession following the pick.

25. Buffalo Bills (22, 5-7, L, Tennessee Titans 23-17): They are 2-7 since their 3-0 start. Apparently Ryan Fitzgerald and the no-name receiver offense wasn't for real.

26. Washington Redskins (27, 4-8, L, New York Jets 34-19): Held the Jets close with their defense -- tied at 13 at the end of the third -- before allowing the Jets to run all over them in the fourth quarter. So much their vaunted defense. As more than one columnist at the Washington Post wrote Monday, this is a bad team.

27. Jacksonville Jaguars (28, 3-9, L, San Diego Chargers 38-14): New ownership and new coach didn't help rookie QB Blaine Gabbert throw accurately and predictably the top five scoring defense was torched after the coaching shuffle.

28. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (25, 4-8, L, Carolina Panthers 38-19): Bucs have dropped six in a row after starting 4-2. They just ain't very good.

29. Cleveland Browns (29, 4-8, L, Baltimore Ravens 24-10): With or without RB Peyton Hillis the Browns can't score: he had just 45 yards on the ground but connected with QB Colt McCoy for a big 52-yard pass-play.

30. Minnesota Vikings (30, 2-10, L, Denver Broncos 35-32): Jared Allen had sack that forced the ball out of the hands of Tim Tebow which led to a free field goal before the half; it was his league-leading fourth forced fumble. QB Christian Ponder threw a Vikes rookie record 381 passing yards, but his pick in the closing two minutes with the game tied, allowed the Tebows to comeback.

31. St. Louis Rams (31, 2-10, L, San Francisco 49ers 26-0): Only twice have they scored more than 16 points and five times they've scored a touchdown or less.

32. Indianapolis Colts (32, 0-12, L, New England Patriots 31-24): The game wasn't as not as the score indicated, with the Pats taking a 31-3 lead and Indy scoring three touchdowns in the meaningless fourth quarter.
posted by Paul Tuns at 7:10 AM

 
Four and down (Week 14 games to watch)

4. Houston Texans (9-3) at Cincinnati Bengals (7-5): Cincy is 1-5 against Quality Opponents, but the Texans are playing their third-string QB and although Houston won with T.J. Yates under center last week, he'll face a stronger defense and an offense capable of putting up more than 10 points. I like the Bengals at home for this one, but with Houston still in contention for a number one overall seed and trying to keep a resurgent Tennessee Titans at bay in the AFC South, it should be a great game with both teams having a lot to play for.

3. Chicago Bears (7-5) at Denver Broncos (7-5): The Broncs -- well, not the Broncos, but Tim Tebow -- is so fun to watch. Da Bears are so bad they're fun to watch, too. This was once a winnable game for Chicago in their quest for a wild card spot. With a victory, Denver will continue to pace the AFC West. It will be good to see what Tebow does against an experienced and skilled defense like Chicago's. I see the Tebows winning again if only because Denver's opportunistic defense will take the ball away from Caleb Hanie lots.

2. New Orleans Saints (9-3) at Tennessee Titans (7-5): Tenny could keep pace in AFC wild card with a win and will try to keep the Saints offensive juggernaut off the field with Chris Johnson's running game. If the Titans can't minimize the Saints ability to score, it is fun watching Drew Brees put up both a massive number of yards and points.

1. New York Giants (6-6) at Dallas Cowboys (7-5): The NFC East is tight and this is the first of two contests between the division rivals in the final four weeks. Boys will make their path to the playoffs easier with a victory, but the G-Men could blow this whole race open with a victory. With a loss, New York will probably need to win out. I see Dallas blowing this game late.
posted by Paul Tuns at 6:39 AM

 
Haunted theatre

This article from The Observer on haunted theatre is worth reading but I wanted to highlight two facts: there are an estimated 3000 haunted houses in the United States and the industry is worth approximately $500 million.

You shouldn't read the article if you are easily offended, but it is fascinating what people will pay to put themselves through for a thrill:

[A] lady in a nightie pulls me into her padded cell and orders me to remove and suck her tampon. The gross-out section continues with a naked man in a toilet vile enough to make the one in Trainspotting look like a Glade PlugIn ad. He slams the cubicle door in my face and from behind it come extravagant sounds of bodily expulsion. Then he pulls me inside and demands that I fish a key out of the full toilet bowl.

"Do it!" he screams. I roll up my sleeve with an involuntary whimper. It's a very convincing texture. I gag a little bit.

"Say, 'I love it!'" he shrieks as he presses his paunchy nakedness against my leg. I oblige. "Say it's the best sex you've ever had!"

posted by Paul Tuns at 8:28 PM

 
Madonna in Indy

Madonna will be the half-time show at the Super Bowl in Indianapolis in February. Lousy choice. To the extent that there is an appeal to potential viewers who are not traditional football fans, this move seems 20 years too late.
posted by Paul Tuns at 5:07 PM

 
Peter Goldring and the (alleged) impaired driving MP
Or, Drinking and driving laws are inherently unjust

Most reports on Conservative MP Peter Goldring, who was stopped by police and booked for refusing to blow into a breathalyser, pointed to some hypocrisy on the part of a law-and-order Tory getting caught committing a crime. Never mind that he has not been convicted. Never mind that there is a difference between drunk driving and refusing to blow into a breathalyser. Never mind that he has opposed random breath analysis tests in the past. Never mind that even if he was impaired that there is a difference between getting behind the wheel after having a drink and consciously going out and committing a violent or property crime. Most people will disagree with that last statement because of years of propaganda that impaired drivers are evil, but I see the law as turning our legal assumptions on their head. Drinking and driving is irresponsible, but punishing people for potentially causing harm is morally indecent. It's like Philip Dick's pre-crime or the human rights commission industry punishing speech because it might lead to hatred or contempt (never mind if it actually does).

I understand that drinking while under the influence of alcohol increases the chances of an accident, but the fact is no accident has occurred -- and no harm has been done -- when random stops are carried out in search of people who have enjoyed an adult beverage. To extend the principle of our drinking and driving policing to other crimes would mean we would arrest and charge minorities because they have a greater statistical likelihood of committing a violent crime. Everyone recognizes how unjust that would be, but it is the same thing. Impaired drivers who return home safely have harmed no one and punishing the potential danger presented by a drunk driver is simply wrong. A sensible compromise would be a temporary suspension of license are people who are clearly drunk and unable to drive, with it being returned the next day when the individual has sobered up. Instead of roadside traps that inconvenience everyone and capture a few impaired drivers, police could pull over drivers who exhibit signs of driving under the influence (swerving the car or whatever).

Goldring, if he was impaired, acted foolishly but I don't understand how what he did should be a crime.
posted by Paul Tuns at 8:55 AM

 
A cheeseburger would have been impossible two centuries ago

Waldo Jaquith considers the process of creating a cheeseburger from scratch and concludes it "cannot exist outside of a highly developed, post-agrarian society." He thinks about what it would take to produce one himself:

In fact, to make the buns, I’d need to grind my own wheat, collect my own eggs, and make my own butter. And I’d really need to raise the cow myself (or sheep, and make lamb burgers), mine or extract from seawater my own salt, grow my own mustard plant, etc. This past summer, revisiting the idea, I realized yet again that I was insufficiently ambitious. I’d really need to plant and harvest the wheat, raise a cow to produce the milk for the butter, raise another cow to slaughter for its rennet to make the cheese, and personally slaughter and process the cow or sheep. At this point I was thinking that this might all add up to an interesting book, and started to consider seriously the undertaking.

Further reflection revealed that it’s quite impractical—nearly impossible—to make a cheeseburger from scratch.

And that's before the lettuce and tomato, which are not harvested at the same time of year in most places.

No one can produce a cheeseburger on their own. Trade is good.
posted by Paul Tuns at 8:45 AM

 
Four and down (looking at the playoffs)

4. With three quarters of the games played, here is how I see the season ending. Of course, fours weeks ago I was predicting all the wild card teams coming from the North divisions of both leagues and now both the Chicago Bears and Detroit Lions look like 50-50 propositions and the Cincinnati Bengals have lost three of four, so a lot can change in a few weeks. Here are the easy picks: The San Francisco 49ers have clinched the NFC West and the Green Bay Packers will take the NFC North (but not finish the regular season perfect), New Orleans Saints will capture the NFC South, and the New England Patriots will win AFC East. Mathematically it is possible for the Packers, Saints, and Pats to lose their division lead, but at this point that seems unlikely.

3. The Houston Texans have a two-game lead over the Tennessee Titans but starting a third-string quarterback makes the final quarter of the season more interesting than it would have been with Matt Schaub or even Matt Leinart under center. That said, Houston should win especially because the Titans have a game against the Saints; if Houston has trouble taking care of a pesky Carolina Panthers team and a Cincinnati Bengals team fighting for its playoff life, it could come down to the final game between these two. Houston wins the AFC South. The Pittsburgh Steelers and Baltimore Ravens are tied at 9-3, but the Ravens hold the tie-breaker with their pair of victories over Pittsburgh in the AFC North. That should put Baltimore on top unless somehow the Bengals win in the final game of the year and the Steelers beat the Niners in San Fran in Week 15. The Dallas Cowboys and New York Giants will fight it out for the NFC East and have a pair of games against each other including in New Jersey on the final weekend; I hate betting against Dallas blowing their one-game lead but I see the Cowboys advancing. That leaves the AFC West where the Denver Broncos control their own fate. They play an injury-plagued Bears, a reeling Buffalo Bills team, and finish against the Kansas City Chiefs. Their biggest challenge will be the Patriots. Assuming Denver can finish 3-1, they'll win their division.

2. The NFC Wild Card got interesting this weekend with every contender for the spot losing, bringing the pack closer to a pair of 5-7 NFC West teams (Seattle and Arizona). For now I'm going to count out the Seahawks and Cardinals, although Seattle's schedule -- Rams, Bears, and Cardinals -- make a 500-season possible, but that won't be enough to capture a wild card, so Seattle would also have to beat the 49ers at home Christmas Eve; I don't see that happening. The loser of the Cowboys-Giants NFC East race could be a factor, but it is unlikely just because the combination of wins and losses is probably not going to happen. The Detroit Lions, Chicago Bears, and Atlanta Falcons are all 7-5 and I see a 9-7 wild card more of a possibility in the NFC than the AFC. I'm taking out Da Bears who play three of four on the road including games against the Broncos and Packers. If they had Jay Cutler I'd predict them to take both the Minnesota Vikings and the Seahawks, but they don't, so they might be lucky to win one (especially if RB Matt Forte is out with a knee injury). I like the Lions to win at least two of its final four: Vikings (home), Raiders, Chargers (home), and Packers (in what might a meaningless game). Three is a possibility, but two should be enough. The Falcons play in Carolina and New Orleans and at home against the Jacksonville Jaguars and Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Considering the way Atlanta have been playing, I think 2-2 is a perfectly reasonable expectation, probably losing both road games and winning both home contests, but if Atlanta can beat Carolina next week, they should be in great shape. Giants have a wild card opportunity if the Lions continue their losing, but Detroit's easier schedule should help them turn things around. So I'm predicting Lions and Falcons winning the fifth and sixth playoff spots.

1. In the AFC The Steelers -- or the Ravens, if Pittsburgh overcomes them in the AFC North -- will get the first wild card. That leaves a wide open race for the second spot with five 7-5 teams currently in the race: New York Jets, Cincinnati Bengals, Tennessee Titans, and the loser of the AFC West contest between the Denver Broncos and Oakland Raiders. It is a good bet that only one of these teams will go 3-1 down the stretch and that two or three teams could finish 2-2 and tie-breakers come into play. The Raiders play the Packers and Lions and should lose both those and will have difficulty with a San Diego Chargers in the final week that is much better than its 5-7 record indicates (see their 38-14 victory over a good defensive team in Jacksonville last night). Oakland will be extremely lucky to be better than 500. The Jets have one easy game (Chiefs) and three against tough teams, although two have sub-500 records (Philadelphia Eagles and Miami Dolphins, both of whom New York plays on the road) and the Giants. I'd say the Jets need a little luck to finish 9-7 but they need to play a whole better and consistently than they generally have this season. The Bengals should make 10 wins with games left against the Rams, the Cards (at home), and a Texans team with T.J. Yates under center. Cincy closes against the Ravens. The Titans' best chance for the playoffs could, paradoxically, be if Houston clinches a playoff spot before Week 17 and rests their starters for the final game. If they do, Tennessee could win a third game and reach double digit wins. If Houston is still battling for a playoff spot, this game could become decisive for the AFC South lead and tie-breakers between the game's loser and the Bengals for the final wild card. My prediction is still Pittsburgh and Cincinnati, but I won't be surprised if Tennessee supplants Cincy as the Bengals continue to struggle.

Prediction:

AFC: Patriots, Ravens, Broncos, Texans, Steelers (WC), Bengals (WC)
NFC: Packers, 49ers, Saints, Cowboys, Falcons (WC), Lions (WC)
posted by Paul Tuns at 8:40 AM

 
Just say no to Trump

Any candidate who takes part in the Donald Trump-moderated publicity gimmick should be disqualified from being the Republican standard-bearer. NRO editorializes against participation in the debate and while Rush Limbaugh said today that the mainstream media shouldn't have a monopoly on moderating the panels, there are reason the GOP should not be associated with this joker. I don't know why the Republican Party would want to get into bed with the billionaire New York landowner who is a indeed a step down from Wolf Blitzer:

We had hoped that after the brief and frivolous publicity stunt Trump branded as exploration of a presidential run, there would be no further occasion to rehearse the many ways in which his sometime association with the Republican party hurts the conservative cause. So we’ll keep it brief: Trump is a tax-hike-supporting, missile-defense-opposing, universal-health-care-advocating, eminent-domain abusing, Schumer-Weiner-Rangel-Reid-donating, long-time-pro-choice economic protectionist who in 2008 called George W. Bush “evil” and lauded president-elect Barack Obama as a potentially “great president” who would “lead by consensus.

posted by Paul Tuns at 8:22 PM

 
Lowering Cain

The Washington Post commits an error that is common in U.S. political reporting this weekend, saying (in an article about Ron Paul) about Herman Cain that he "announced Saturday that he was suspending his campaign in the wake of a series of allegations that he sexually harassed several women and conducted a 13-year extramarital affair." Technically that is all true, but the idea that Cain's campaign is doomed because of his libido misses the point that he has made a number of amateur mistakes and that he was prone to saying stupid things. For example, he said he would prevent Red China from acquiring nukes (they already have them) and the government should ban abortion while describing the issue as one between a woman and her doctor. He was never a serious candidate. The rigours of a presidential campaign break most people and Cain was just the latest. The presidency is not an entry-level political job nor should it be. The allegations were sexy, but Cain self-destructed before they were made.
posted by Paul Tuns at 7:01 PM

 
Sportsman of the Year

Sports Illustrated picked a Sportsman and Sportswoman of the Year -- both college hoops coaches. Nice cop-out. Anyway, here's every Sportsman of the Year going back to 1954. I think Joe Posnanski might be on to something when he says that St. Louis Cardinals manager Tony La Russa should have won Sportsman of the Year.
posted by Paul Tuns at 6:36 PM

 
This is not an endorsement

Yet.

Ron Paul's latest YouTube ad.


posted by Paul Tuns at 5:21 PM

 
UCC sucks

Michael Coren had a speaking engagement at Upper Canada College cancelled. Don't these groups that later rescind speaking offers know who they are inviting when they ask them to speak? If they do, why don't they have the guts to stand by their decisions? Anyway, the super wealthy (and increasingly the wealthy) generally hate conservatives. As Denyse O'Leary explains in the comments section, the established rich have no interest in challenging the status quo.
posted by Paul Tuns at 8:57 AM

 
Cowen on euro crisis

Russ Roberts talks to Tyler Cowen for nearly an hour about the euro. Definitely worth listening to if you enjoy Cowen or are interested in the euro.
posted by Paul Tuns at 8:54 AM

 
Samuelson on the welfare state

Every paragraph of this Robert J. Samuelson column is fantastic. Key points:

1) The welfare state requires economic growth and the right demographics and the West doesn't have either one of those things going in the right direction.

2) America is more like Europe than Americans want to admit.

3) The main difference between the U.S. and Europe is that American hasn't faced a backlash from the bond markets.

4) The welfare state, originally created to add stability to politics, is now the primary cause of political instability.
posted by Paul Tuns at 8:51 AM

 
Four and down

4. In the Oakland Raiders-Miami Dolphins, the leading rusher for each team was a Bush. Oakland's RB Michael Bush had 11 carries for 20 yards; Miami's RB Reggie Bush had 22 carries for 100 yards and a touchdown. Fins won.

3. That game between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Cincinnati Bengals was incredible if you are a Steelers fan. It might be the best complete game they've played in the past four years (even linebacker James Harrison said it was the best 60 minutes of football the Steelers played this season). The special teams were ... well, special. For the first time since 2006, they returned a punt for score. They blocked a field goal on Cincy's opening drive, keeping the Bengals off the scoreboard. And they forced a fumble on return, setting Ben Roethlisberger up on a short field. The defense was great and the offense (both running and passing) was humming. The final score of 35-7 does not reflect how dominant the Steelers were; they scored 28 of their points in the second quarter so Pittsburgh was committed to the running game and giving Big Ben and several starters on both sides of the ball some fourth quarter rest.

2. Roethlisberger reached a pair of milestones Sunday against the Bengals. He was sacked for the 308th time in his career, overtaking Terry Bradshaw for most in Steeler history. He also made his 2026th completion, also overtaking Bradshaw for most in team history. Last week, he reached 3000 yards for the sixth time in his eight-year career -- as many 3000 yard seasons as all other quarterbacks combined.

1. Tim Tebow had a great game by QB Passer Rating (149.3) so yes, he deserves a lot of credit for helping eke out the 35-32 Denver Broncos over the Minnesota Vikings who were 2-9 going into the game. Football is a team effort and no more so than with the Tebow wins. The defense had a first-half pick six and an interception in the final two minutes to set Denver up for a game-winning field goal. In other words, even with the defense not shutdown as they have in most of Tebow's (credited) wins, they were instrumental. Because of the D and special teams, Tebow has four fourth-quarter comebacks -- one more than Broncos great John Elway had all his career -- and there are some who are mentioning the second-year quarterback as an MVP candidate. That seems wrong-headed because, as noted, football is a team sport only more so in Denver. However, John Fox deserves consideration for coach of the year for making a playbook that matches his quarterback rather than forcing a square peg into a round hole. Most coaches make the personnel adopt their own playbook, but Fox knows his young and eccentric QB's strengths and limitations and sets up his team for success with a modified playbook.
posted by Paul Tuns at 8:47 AM

 
Weekend stuff

1. Cool high rise condos and parking garage designed by Porsche.

2. From Discover magazine: "Helpful Mouse Fetuses Naturally Send Stem Cells to Mom to Fix Her Damaged Heart."

3. A 3,503.94 foot-long Yule log in Shanghai enters the Guinness Book of World Records. It took 80 chefs and broke the old record by more than 600 feet.

4. Best. Cup. Ever.

5. Larry Granillo at the Baseball Prospectus blog match MLB players with corresponding Muppets. I don't think you can call Alex Rodriguez Miss Piggy but overall not a bad stab at an overly contrived gimmick.

6. Three-person chess.

7. The Wall Street Journal reports on Brits that are opening their castles to private tours and sleepovers.

8. Cracked.com has "5 reasons money can buy happiness."

9. I'm late to this but the video Toronto Tempo provides a cool look at Toronto. It is actually a series of thousands of individual photos.

Toronto Tempo from Ryan Emond on Vimeo.

posted by Paul Tuns at 1:28 PM

 
Why the Liberals aren't as good as the Conservatives at fundraising

It is the same reason they aren't as good winning votes. Their policies don't appeal to Canadians. I'll explain more below after commenting on the Liberals' latest fundraising email that included this:

Politics isn’t rocket science. It’s about people talking to people about the issues they care about, and offering real solutions that make lives better.

Whoever talks to the most people — and builds the strongest relationships — wins.

I’ve got bad news. The Conservatives figured that out eight years ago. They adopted a voter relationship database years before we did, and have since launched a telemarketing operation that makes thousands of calls each day “on behalf of the Prime Minister.”

Their approach is systematic, disciplined and explains why there are two Conservative donors for every Liberal donor – and why they’ve raised over $10-million more than us this year.

We can’t let this continue in 2012 — and we’ve got until midnight, Monday, December 12 to do something about it.

Put aside the BS deadline. Is their ability to wage a competitive federal election campaign in 2015 reliant on how much money they raise in the next week? If it is, they don't deserve to win in 2015 -- or ever. And the average Liberal receiving this email knows it is BS. Do you donate to bullshitters? Sane people don't. The Liberals don't even believe this because they tacitly recognize that the Conservative advantage was built up over years and that the "conversations" the Grits need to have will take time, too.

Okay, so I didn't put aside the deadline question.

About those "conversations" the Liberals supposedly need money for, the issue is not that they are not happening. The problem is that Canadians don't like what the Liberals are saying. Or they are noticing that the Liberals aren't saying much. The Liberals are not offering "solutions" that most voters are willing to buy into. I've long said the Liberal Party is not dead (yet), and probably the thing they need most is time: either time for the Conservatives to slip up/NDP to expose what they really are or time to find some brilliant, as-yet-undiscovered set of policies to which Canadians would gravitate. So far the Liberals define themselves by empty terms such as "centrist" and "between the two extremes" but have not put policy meat on those rhetorical bones. It is much like when some small-c conservatives talk about lower taxes and spending or fiscal conservative principles without saying what those things really mean to Canadians. The average Canadian thinks the average Liberal stands for nothing.

The problem the Liberals have, unlike the Conservatives, is that they do not have policies worth fighting for and thus their supporters have no reason to give money to advance some cause larger than the well-being (or mere continued existence) of the Liberal Party of Canada. The Tories had identifiable groups they appeal to (sometimes dishonestly, such as pro-traditional marriage social conservatives) with specific policies. The Liberals don't. Some free advice to the Grits: find those voters and what they are concerned about. They might not be enough to win an election with, but they would become the base the Liberals need to rely on. The Conservatives have small business owners, social conservatives, gun owners, Jews, traditional Tories, etc..., while the Liberals have Liberals. See what I mean? The Liberals don't.
posted by Paul Tuns at 9:56 AM