Sobering Thoughts

Comments on politics, the culture, economics, and sports by Paul Tuns. I am editor-in-chief of "The Interim," Canada's life and family newspaper, and author of "Jean Chretien: A Legacy of Scandal" (2004) and "The Dauphin: The Truth about Justin Trudeau" (2015). I am some combination of conservative/libertarian, standing athwart history yelling "bullshit!" You can follow me on Twitter (@ptuns).

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Tuesday, December 28, 2010
 
Blogging is light

One reason is a heavy reading and writing schedule. I have to write 15,000 to 20,000 words by next Monday and that requires reading about a half dozen books and about a hundred of articles.

The other reason I'm not posting is a heavy heart. On Christmas morning, my wife and I went to the emergency room with another round of complications in her pregnancy. We later discovered that we have lost our unborn child. In comparison, the daily ephemera about which I usually blog seems unimportant. If you pray, please keep our family in your prayers.

As a change of pace/distraction, I'll have something about the final day of football posted before Sunday. At least I hope so.


Friday, December 24, 2010
 
Merry Christmas

I wish you all peace and joy.



And per Sobering Thought's Christmas tradition, the most perfect piece of music ever written.



Thursday, December 23, 2010
 
Three interesting reads

At Vox EU, Nauro F Campos and Ralitza Dimova answer the question: "Does corruption sand or grease the wheels of economic growth?"

At Brain Blogger, Veronica Pamoukaghlian answers the question: "Is the Future Bisexual?"

The Village Voice has "The 20 Worst Songs of 2010." Click on each song for a detailed explanation, starting with the worst, Train's Hey Soul Sister. Worth the time and effort, although some entries are not for mature readers.


 
The lottery of life

Rush Limbaugh gets upset with liberals who call successful Americans winners in the lottery of life because, says Limbaugh, they've worked hard to get where they are. That is true when one is comparing Americans to Americans or even Americans to other westerners, but as Warren Buffet says, most of his success is based on luck: being born American, growing up in the middle of the 20th century and having the parents he had -- three things entirely beyond his control. These ads make the same point: those of us lucky enough to be born in the developed world are very blessed.


 
Week 16 NFL predictions

Carolina Panthers at Pittsburgh Steelers: Missing safety Troy Polamalu and tight end Heath Miller, the Steelers are not the 10-4 team their record indicates. But they are a whole lot better than the 2-12 Panthers. Even without Polamalu, it is hard to imagine the league's worst scoring offense (13.1 ppg) doing much against the league's best scoring defense (15.7 ppg). Pittsburgh with ease in the last Thursday night game of the year.

Dallas Cowboys at Arizona Cardinals: Boys have been a better team since canning coach Wade Phillips, scoring 32 ppg over their past six games. The Cards have been a terrible team since QB Kurt Warner retired in the off-season. Boys beat the Cards in the season's only Saturday nighter, Christmas evening.

New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills: I expect the Pats to take the foot off the gas a bit. That might make this one close, but the Pats still win.

New York Jets at Chicago Bears: I really think this is a coin flip, but I'm going with Da Bears because 1) they play at home and 2) even though they snapped a two-game losing streak, the Jets were unimpressive in their win last week. Bears can be pretty disruptive on defense and that should make the difference.

Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns: Ravens are trying to win the division and the Browns can be a difficult team to beat. Raven eke out the victory.

Washington Redskins at Jacksonville Jaguars: David Garrard has been very good in most games. Rex Grossman is starting for the Skins because he is not Donovan McNabb, who is disliked by Washington head coach Mike Shanahan for some reason. Jax will find a way to win.

Tennessee Titans at Kansas City Chiefs: Last week Tenny played their first good game in about a half season, but the Chiefs have a great running game and good enough aerial game with Matt Cassel to keep opposing defenses honest. KC easily at home.

Detroit Lions at Miami Dolphins: Fins are 1-6 at home this season, but last week Lions won their first road game since 2007. Fins edge the Lions in a game that will have flashes of excitement (Calvin Johnson catches, NT Ndamakong Suh disrupting Miami's offense).

San Francisco 49ers at St. Louis Rams: Who would have figured both teams would have something to play for in Week 16? Troy Smith is under center once again for the Niners. Won't help the visitors who play a team that is simply better in all elements of the game. Rams win by double digits at home.

San Diego Chargers at Cincinnati Bengals: Bolts are second in total offense and first in total defense. Cincy is very good at sucking. Bolts, who have out-scored their past two opponents 65-7, beat Bengals with ease.

Houston Texans at Denver Broncos: Should be an ugly scorefest, but it will be fun to watch Tim Tebow start his second game. Texans outscore Broncs in the Rookies.

Indianapolis Colts at Oakland Raiders: Peyton Manning is without Austin Collie again and they have to travel to the West coast. This game has upset written all over it, but I'm going with my gut, which says that Manning lifts his team on his shoulders to keep pace in the AFC South for another week.

New York Giants at Green Bay Packers: Pack can help their playoff chances by beating the G-Men at home. Aaron Rodgers will be back under center. Should be a good game in which both sides can move the ball on offense and prevent opponents from doing likewise. Pack on top at home.

Seattle Seahawks at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Tampa lost their first game to a sub-500 team last week (to the Detroit Lions). Matt Hasselbeck hsa struggled under center for Seattle most of this season and I don't quite understand why he continues to start. I think Tampa's second-year QB Josh Freeman and rookies Mike Williams (WR) and LeGarrette Blount (RB) will easily handle the 'Hawks who must travel diagonally across the country to play a playoff-calibre team.

Minnesota Vikings at Philadelphia Eagles: I don't get this game being flexed into prime time -- not with the Giants-Packers or Jets-Bears contests having both broad appeal and major playoff implications. (The 'Hawks-Bucs, Colts-Raiders, Niners-Rams, and Titans-Chiefs all feature teams that are not eliminated, but none would have the national television appeal of the other teams). Eagles are a dangerous team on offense and the Vikes don't have the D they had last year. Philly wins and clinches the NFC East.

New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons: Another coin flip. Falcons have already punched their post-season ticket and the Saints are a win away from a return to the big dance. Falcons are difficult to beat in the Georgia Dome, but the Saints are 6-1 in their last seven as they hum along like they did in 2009.


Wednesday, December 22, 2010
 
Priorities

Winnipeg Free Press columnist Frances Russell says that inequality is a more important issue than poverty. Easy argument for someone who probably isn't worried about going hungry tonight but is concerned about how much power she exercises.


 
Three and out

3. ESPN New York is reporting that the New York Yankees probably won't be acquiring a starting pitcher before the season. I expect that if they are 2-5 games out of first in the AL East/the AL wild card by mid-July, they making a big pitching acquisition. Carolos Zambrano, Derek Lowe, maybe even Felix Hernandez. I think their more immediate need, which will also go unfilled, is a power-hitting outfielder. Curtis Granderson was much improved after mid-August, but can he keep it up? I also think Kerry Wood, the setup reliever, is the biggest loss for the team -- even bigger than not landing Cliff Lee. The bullpen was much better after he joined the team. I can't believe that the Yankees couldn't have doubled the $1.5 million deal he signed with the Chicago Cubs. I am a little concerned about the Bronx Bombers and whether they can make a run at the playoffs. If Granderson can hit like he did down the stretch and if Derek Jeter and Jorge Posada retard their regression and if the bullpen doesn't fall apart and if A.J. Burnett bounces back just a little and if A-Rod and Robinson Cano don't regress too much and if Mark Texeiria can avoid his annual slow start, the Yankees will be just fine. But that's a lot of ifs.

2. If I had the time, I'd punch out 2500 words on the Milwaukee Brewers trading four minor leaguers to the Kansas City Royals for Zach Greinke and Yuniesky Betancourt, as well as the Royals signing two free agents from the scrap heap to start in two-thirds of their outfield. I don't have the time so this will have to suffice for now: Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports points out that the only significant player on the Brewers who is over 30 is third (or maybe fourth) starter Randy Wolf, who is 34. The rest of the core is 29 or younger. And yet, as Baseball Prospectus pointed out on the weekend, the team only has a year or two to win make an impact, mostly because Prince Fielder will be a free agent after the 2011 season. As for the Kansas City Royals, I'm with Rob Neyer who analyzed the in-coming talent and said, "We do know the Royals just went from being loaded with good young players to being really loaded with good young players." That, and being competitive moved back from 2012 to year or two later. Bad news if you are a Royals fan and impatient, but I can't imagine that there are many people with that combination of attributes left in the world.

1. The aforementioned Rosenthal column notes that an unnamed baseball executive said the inclusion of no-bat, no-glove Betancourt "nullifies the acquisition" of Greinke for the Brew Crew. Betancourt is consistently one of the worst players in baseball and perhaps the Royals were willing to get rid of a few years of ace-level pitching at about half of market cost for a mere bag of moderately useful prospect in order to get rid of Betancourt. Something to think about.


 
The importance of the Y axis

Megan McArdle has a great post on how to read a graph, especially when those graphs come from groups pushing a cause and they want to exaggerate shifts in whatever the graph claims to be showing.


Tuesday, December 21, 2010
 
Tweet of the day

Football Fact (Kerry Byrne of Cold Hard Football Facts): "BrettFavre's career ends like a Hemingway novel: motionless. concussed. In the snow." This is perfect. I don't much care for Hemingway, either.


 
Four and down

4. Rating the games I watched for entertainment value:

San Diego 34, San Francisco 7: Philip Rivers made some great passes to Vincent Jackson and sustained some nice drives. But the result was never in doubt. C+

Indianapolis Colts 34, Jacksonville Jaguars 24: The score was close and Jax, considering how its season has gone, could have had a comeback in it. Colts are boringly efficient and didn't ice the game until they recovered the onside kick inside the two-minute mark to go up by double digits. Sucked seeing Austin Collie go done with another concussion. B-

Philadelphia Eagles 38, New York Giants 31: Might be the most exciting non-playoff game I've ever seen. Philly rallied back, scoring 28 points in the final eight minutes. The Giants defense played terribly down the stretch, blitzing when it was unnecessary and unwise, which opened up lanes for various Eagles players, including Michael Vick who rushed for 130 (a pair of 30+ yard runs in the final two drives). Eagles recovered an onside kick with seven minutes remaining and down 14 points -- an ideal time for an onside kick -- that no Giant even attempted to get. Philly tied the game with two minutes remaining, got the Giants to four-and-out, and returned a kick that should either been squibbed or sent into the end zone. Instead, Mat Dodge sent a line drive to the dynamic DeSean Jackson, who proceeded to drop the ball, pick it up, and return it 65 yards for the game-winning score. First time in history a game has been decided on a time-ending punt or kick return. A+

New York Jets 22, Pittsburgh Steelers 17: Neither team got their offense really clicking and Pittsburgh demonstrated (once again) that they aren't the same team without Troy Polamalu on the field (recall most of 2009). The Steelers fell behind by five points with two minutes and 38 seconds remaining when Mewelde Moore was tackled in the end zone for a safety. Ben Roethlisberger marched his offense up the field and twice got the ball into the end zone but his receivers were unable to grab in the ball. If the Jets didn't score that safety, the Steelers could have settled for a field goal and tried their luck in overtime. I think this game showed not only how much they miss Troy Polamalu, but Santonio Holmes, the wide receiver that they traded to the Jets for a fourth-round pick in the off-season. Holmes was a great end zone option for Roethlisberger in recent years in a way that the speedy Mike Wallace and veteran Hines Ward are not. Still, lots of fun to watch. A

New England Patriots 31, Green Bay Packers 27: Wasn't expecting much without Aaron Rodgers under center for the Pack, but Matt Flynn comported did a great job in his first career start, showing some athleticism under pressure and flashing a great arm. Highlight, though was the kick that was almost returned for score by 313-pound guard Dan Connolly, who was just yards short. Longest return (71 yards) ever by a member of the offensive line. Some terrible time management by the Packers in the final minute might have cost Green Bay the game they were not expected to be competitive in. Very competitive game with loads of excitement elements. A

Chicago Bears 40, Minnesota Vikings 14: First outdoor game played in Minnesota in 29 years after the snow collapsed the roof of the Metrodome. That was great. Chicago showing a diverse defense -- eight different players had either a sack, interception, or forced fumble. Fantastic. Brett Favre might have ended his career with a sack to the hard ground at the University of Minnesota's TCF Bank Stadium. Fine with me. The Vikes score early, but Da Bears score 27 unanswered points. Exciting. Backup QB Joe Webb had some great runs and showed some decent stuff in a losing effort. Good. But with a 37-14 lead going into the fourth, it was difficult to watch the final 15 minutes. B-
3. Matt Flynn had a great game in his first career start for the Aaron Rodgersless Green Bay Packers in their prime time contest against the New England Patriots Sunday night. Flynn was 24/37 for 251 yards and three touchdown passes. Solid effort against the best team in the NFL. But Flynn took too long (about 15 seconds) to take the final snap with 22 seconds remaining and the necessity of getting the ball in the hands of a receiver in the end zone. He took too long and scrambled about before getting sacked. Game over. Pats win by four. Yet, I don't blame Flynn -- unlike the SNF broadcasters who said Flynn played 58 and a half minutes of solid football only to look like a first-time starter in the 90 seconds of the game. That's not bad and he shouldn't shoulder that responsibility. Mike McCarthy called an unnecessary -- and final -- timeout with 52 seconds left. If they hurried and spike the ball instead, they would have had a TO left for the final play. The final 22 seconds were infuriating but that's not all on Flynn. And even if it were, his play for 58.5 minutes, kept the Packers in the game.

2. Hard to argue that these are not the top five catches of the week -- I love Merceded Lewis's one-handed catch, but the pair of end zone catches that didn't first look like catches were amazing.

1. It is pathetic that the 5-9 San Francisco 49ers are still on the bubble of a playoff spot, just one game behind the Seattle Seahawks and St. Louis Rams who both sport 6-8 records. Niners would have the tie-breaker in the case of a two-way or three-way tie. But San Fran would have to win out because the Rams and 'Hawks face each other in the final game, in Seattle, and thus at least one of them will be (at least) 7-9 at season's end. Rams have lost six straight in Seattle, and lost them by an average of 20 points. Winner of that match probably goes the playoffs. Next week, the Rams host the Niners (and can eliminate them) while the Seahawks take on the 8-6 Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who lost to the Detroit Lions this past weekend. I want either the Rams or 'Hawks to win their final two games because the idea of a sub-500 playoff team should offend all football fans. NFL needs a rule to address this -- at the very least changing the seeding system so superior wild card teams don't have to travel to lousy division winners.


 
Tehran's tyrants

The Guardian reports:

The acclaimed Iranian film-maker Jafar Panahi was sentenced to six years in prison today, and banned from directing and producing films for the next 20 years, his lawyer said.

Panahi, an outspoken supporter of Iran's opposition green movement, was convicted of colluding in gathering and making propaganda against the regime, Farideh Gheyrat told the Iranian state news agency, ISNA.
Furthermore, Panahi cannot write scripts, travel abroad or do media interviews for 20 years.


 
Scale of the universe

I don't know if this will help people understand the enormity and smallness of man and how incredibly small and large the smallest and largest things are in the universe -- which is what I want people to get out of it -- but Scale of the Universe is pretty cool.


Monday, December 20, 2010
 
Stop the presses!

Conservatives will seek majority government by trying to win vulnerable opposition seats. Really, that's what the Globe and Mail reported today.


 
Why?

Inflatable toast? Here's Amazon's product description:

Toast is great, but it s hard to keep in your pocket. So what do you do when you crave the warm comfort of toast but don t want to deal with the crumbs? You pull out your Inflatable Toast, blow it up and admire its realistic toasty goodness! Each soft vinyl slice of toast is 6" (15.2 cm) tall and has a standard inflation valve.
Again, why?



 
More on the No Labels idiocy

George Will takes on the political finger-waggers of No Labels and devastates their idiocy. As Will notes, "'Hyper-partisanship' is deplorable, but partisanship is politics."


Sunday, December 19, 2010
 
At some point Muslim barbarity is no longer newsworthy

The Daily Mail reports on the latest child murder in England's Muslim community:

Neighbours of a mother arrested after her four-year-old daughter was killed as an apparent religious offering told how they heard screams from the family's flat.

Nusayba Bharuchi's corpse was found stabbed to death in the kitchen with her heart and other organs cut out and strewn around her flat and lying next to her mother, Shayna.

The 35-year-old woman was allegedly chanting verses of the Koran as her daughter's disembowelled corpse lay next to her in the home in Clapton, East London.

The woman, believed to be from Somalia, had her MP3 on full blast as she listened to the Muslim holy book...

Yesterday another shocked resident, a mum in her 30s, said the mother always wore a black headscarf with a veil.
I'm a little surprised that anyone thinks this is worth covering anymore. Muslim parent acting beastly to own child is a dog bites man story.

(HT: Five Feet of Fury)


Saturday, December 18, 2010
 
'Unnecessary' quotation marks

As an editor I encounter unnecessary quotation marks all the time. Here's a hilarious blog dedicated to unnecessary quotation marks -- or more properly dedicated to mocking them.


 
NFL Week 15 predictions

Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins: Excluding the beating the Bills took in Minnesota two games ago, Buffalo has not lost by more than three points since Canadian Thanksgiving. They will lose another close one in Miami.

Arizona Cardinals at Carolina Panthers: The Panthers are the only team with a single victory, but the anemic Cards (4-9) are not much better. Carolina has one of the five worst team quarterback passer ratings ever and might be playing for the first pick overall. Arizona in an uglyfest.

New Orleans Saints at Baltimore Ravens: Tough game for both teams that are probably going to do no better (or worse) than a Wild Card spot. Saints are looking a lot like the team that won the Super Bowl. Drew Brees-led Saints offense can probably expose a under-performing Ravens defense that isn't getting the job done against elite quarterbacks. Saints go marching on to their seventh consecutive victory.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts: Must-win game for Indy -- and they will. Peyton Manning has righted the ship and he gets RB Joseph Addai and WR
Austin Collie back to provide more balance and depth to the offense. Jax, though, is a difficult opponent to secure the victory against as their latest come-from-behind win against the Oakland Raiders last Sunday demonstrates. Indy beats Jax to close the gap between them and the division leader by a game.

Detroit Lions at Tampa Bay Bucaneers: Tampa is 8-0 against losing teams and 0-5 against teams with winning records. Lions are 2-11. Bucs win, but Lions will keep it close.

Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants: Battling for the NFC East division title, these are two very good teams capable of making big plays on both offense and defense. Whoever makes the biggest plays -- timely sacks on third down, passes of 20 yards or more, etc... -- will win. G-Men have the personnel to stick to a time-eating running game to keep Michael Vick off the field and minimize the chances that Vick burns them on a deep pass to DeSean Jackson. Giants narrowly edge the visiting Eagles.

Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals: Cincy has the offensive weapons but they haven't been getting it done. The Browns have played some good games this year and they have rookie QB Colt McCoy back under center. He has a passer rating of 85.3 in four games, but hasn't been that low since his debut in Week 7. I don't like the way veteran Bengals QB Carson Palmer has played at all this year and Cincy is crippled by injuries to the defense (especially the secondary). Browns extend Bengals's losing streak to 11.

Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans: Neither team has played particularly well over the past month or so, but Tenny has played worse. Houston has offensive ability and Tennessee showed some fight against the Indianapolis Colts in Week 13. Texans take Titans at home because Tennessee's deteroriating defense won't stop an offense that will put up more points than the Titans can score.

Washington Redskins at Dallas Cowboys: I thought the Cowboys were a better team before Skins coach Mike Shanahan announced that Donovan McNabb was dropped from starting QB to clipboard carrying third stringer. Rex Grossman will not vindicate Shanahan's decision. Boys by double digits.

Kansas City Chiefs at St. Louis Rams: Chiefs if Matt Cassel starts and he is healthy after undergoing emergency appendectomy two weeks ago. If not, Rams edge the visitors. It sounds like Brodie Croyle is starting under center for Kansas City so even though the Chiefs have an incredible running game (Jamal Charles averages 6.1 yards per carry), the Rams should win at home.

Atlanta Falcons at Seattle Seahawks: Battle of the birds is not so clearly in favour of the 11-2 Falcons. Seattle is hard to beat at home. Atlanta ekes out a narrow win after taking the crowd out of the game with an early score.

New York Jets at Pittsburgh Steelers: Jets have been lackluster in their last two games, scoring a grand total of nine points. But Steelers offense has scored only one touchdown in past two weeks. Pittsburgh's defense is not the same without safety Troy Polamalu, who didn't practice this week after aggravating a strained right Achilles' tendon (he is listed as doubtful for the game). That will help a struggling Mark Sanchez, but Steelers do exactly what it takes to win in a game without a lot of scoring.

Denver Broncos at Oakland Raiders: It is likely that Tim Tebow will start. That is not likely to help Denver's chances. Raiders win.

Green Bay Packers at New England Patriots: Pats have outscored their past two opponents -- teams that were a combined 18-5 when they went into their games with New England -- by a combined score of 81-10. The Pats have been kept to less than 28 points only once in the past seven games. Tom Brady is a MVP candidate because he routinely has a clean pocket (4-5 seconds to make a decision), but that probably won't happen against Clay Matthews III, who would be a MVP candidate himself if voters ever looked beyond quarterbacks and running backs for consideration of the award. Pack might have kept it close if QB Aaron Rodgers wasn't concussed. Matt Flynn gets his first career start in a trial by fire. Pats rout the Pack.

Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings: Whoever plays under center for the Vikes has one play: hand the ball to RB Adrian Peterson. Will be enough to win against a Bears team that seems to regress by the week.


Friday, December 17, 2010
 
Yadayadayada Econ

Using Seinfeld to teach economics. For example, what George tipping whilst the recipient of the tip is not looking tells us about incentives, altruism and utility. Lots of fun, especially if you liked the TV show.

(HT: Greg Mankiw)


Thursday, December 16, 2010
 
NFL Week 15 Thursday prediction

San Francisco 49ers at San Diego Chargers: Tonight's contest is a must-win for both teams. Somehow, the 5-8 Niners are only a game out of first in the NFC West, while the Bolts at 7-6 are a game behind the Kansas City Chiefs. Despite both being on the cusp of playing meaningful football in January, the Bolts are by far the superior team -- second in the league in total offensive yards (399.6 ypg) and the fewest in yards allowed (263.5 ypg) -- and will beat the visiting Niners.


Wednesday, December 15, 2010
 
My thoughts on the defeat of Roxanne's Law

C-510 or Roxanne’s Law is a private member’s bill that would have outlawed coercing a woman to have an abortion. It was defeated today in the House of Commons by a vote of 97-178. My two-cents are at Soconvivium.


Tuesday, December 14, 2010
 
If Adam Sandler was an economist he might have wrote this

An economists' Hanukkah Song (sound quality is poor):



 
Early Christmas present

Blazing Cat Fur has a fatwa and his wife, Five Feet of Fury, is jealous.


 
Four and down

4. Rating the games I watched for entertainment value

Indianapolis Colts 30, Tennessee Titans 28: Indy came out the half leading 21-7, but the Titans scored three second-half touchdowns compared to three field goals for the Colts to make the game close. Kerry Collins threw to nine different receivers, while Peyton Manning made several big passes (Reggie Wayne had a 50-yard play and Pierre Garcon had a 43-yard play). Tenny's surge made the game interesting, although some play calls and clock management in the final minute cost the Titans any chance to catch up. B+

Pittsburgh Steelers 23, Cincinnati Bengals 7: Pittsburgh didn't score an offensive touchdown, but they controlled the game after Cincy went up 7-0 on the opening drive. I like great defense, and the Steelers D got it done with three picks of Carson Palmer, three sacks and lots of pressure. Both LaMarr Woodley and Troy Polamalu scored pick sixes. A

New England 36, Chicago Bears 7: The game was played in the snow and wind and Tom Brady still threw for 369 yards and two touchdowns -- against a team with a great pass defense. A-

Miami Dolphins 10, New York Jets 6: You know it's a bad game when the highlight is legitimately a coach tripping an opposing player on the sidelines during a kick return. D

Philadelphia Eagles 30, Dallas Cowboys 27: A pretty good back-and-forth game, with Dallas taking a 20-17 lead into the fourth. Eagles WR DeSean Jackson made four catches for 210 yards, including a 91-yarder for score in which he full-stopped, turned around, and fell backwards into the end zone. LeSean McCoy had some power runs for real yards for Philly. Eagles are a lot of fun to watch and this game was competitive. A

Baltimore Ravens 34, Houston Texans 28: Game was lop-sided for most of the contest as Baltimore got out to a 28-7 lead. Texans stormed back in the fourth with scoring drives of 98 and 95 yards, the latter ending inside the final minute on an acrobatic catch by Andre Johnson and capped by a two-point conversion to tie the game. Texans QB Matt Schaub attempted 62 passes (393 yards), but at through to part way into the third quarter, failed on fully two-thirds of them. Baltimore scored on Houston's first OT possession when Josh Wilson turned an interception 12 yards into the end zone. B
3. Dallas Cowboys RB Tashard Choice went over to Michael Vick and had the Philadelphia Eagles QB sign his playing gloves after the game Sunday night; the autograph was for a family member. The story after the incident is that there is some controversy although everyone seems to be downplaying it, so I don't understand how there is a controversy if no one really cares about Choice's post-game actions. (Why are low-level blogger and twitter comments the basis for a story about national outrage?) I don't see why it matters. In fact, I like to see that the players are also fans of the game and their great colleagues.

2. It is quite something that the post-season won't include the Dallas Cowboys and Minnesota Vikings and probably won't include the Green Bay Packers, Indianapolis Colts and San Diego Chargers. If the playoffs started today, players from those five teams would all be watching football from their living rooms or favourite sports bar. All were popular picks to be in the playoffs and the Cowboys, Packers, Colts and Bolts were widely picked to be in the conference championship games and even Super Bowl.

1. The streak is over: after 297 games, Brett Favre doesn't start in Minnesota's "home" game in Detroit against the New York Giants. In a neat coincidence, in the same city that baseball's Iron Horse, Lou Gehrig, had his 2130 consecutive game streak ended on July 14, 1931.


Monday, December 13, 2010
 
Tweet of the day

Political Math: "I think the #NoLabels idea is cute. Wait... these are 3rd graders we're talking about, right?"


 
America needs more extremists

Ross Douthat praises the decidedly non-centrist Senator Tom Coburn. An excerpt:

But in the last two years, Coburn has also proved himself braver than many of his colleagues, more creative on public policy, and more intellectually honest about the consequences of popular legislation. His example suggests that America may be saved from fiscal ruin, not by politicians who trim their sails at every opportunity, but by lawmakers with stiff backbones and unwavering convictions.


 
People are the cure to poverty

As populations grew over time, more people escaped poverty as the masses move from subsistence survival to lives of fruitful production for others, making everyone better off. As global population has "exploded" since the industrial revolution, the percentage of the population in abject poverty has decreased as a percentage of the total population. Here is a fun and informative two-minute video that shows how material progress is tied to a growing population:



 
Hold the applause

A district court has ruled that a provision of Obamacare is unconstitutional because Congress exceeded its authority in requiring people to buy health insurance:

A federal district judge in Virginia ruled on Monday that the keystone provision in the Obama health care law is unconstitutional, becoming the first court in the country to invalidate any part of the sprawling act and ensuring that appellate courts will receive contradictory opinions from below.

Judge Henry E. Hudson, who was appointed to the bench by President George W. Bush, declined the plaintiff’s request to freeze implementation of the law pending appeal, meaning that there should be no immediate effect on the ongoing rollout of the law. But the ruling is likely to create confusion among the public and further destabilize political support for legislation that is under fierce attack from Republicans in Congress and in many statehouses.
I have no idea whether this view will ultimately prevail in the courts; nothing is certain other than the continued legal assault on Obamacare in dozens of different suits filed by governors and conservative groups against the massive Democratic health care reform. But politically, I think this creates the pretense for reformers to seek a single-payer system.


 
Prayer request for Andrew Lawton

The young blogger, conservative organizer and force behind Strictly Right had a stroke last year. His health has taken a turn for the worse. His family has requested prayers.


Sunday, December 12, 2010
 
Weekend stuff

1. Popular Mechanics has "Anatomy of the Perfect (Undead) Headshot."

2. Wikipedia's entry on @ is worth reading (via Megan McArdle)

3. "10 coolest things people made with LEGOs." Maybe not the coolest, but very cool.

4. From New Scientist: "Mathematical immortality? Give a theorem your name."

5. Mental Floss has "Way More Than You Ever Wanted to Know About Eggnog."

6. Tyler Cowen on what statistics are important in sports, specifically about rebounds in basketball. He has a larger point about the quality not just quantity of work (Nolan Ryan vs. Ronald Coase?).

7. Forbes has "The World's Most Dangerous Delicacies." Everyone knows that fugu and certain mushrooms can kill you, but elderberries and bullfrogs?

8. How to get more than a dollar for a dollar using the all-pay auction. Dinosaur comic explains the problem clearly. I don't think David Zetler is quite right about it being analogous to the next dollar in lobbying politicians because money spent on government relations is not the only factor in deciding to spend another dollar on lobbying.

9. The New York Times Magazine considers whether energy drinks help athletic performance. (To save you time, no they don't.)

10. What a great commercial:



 
Advice for wedding planning

Tyler Cowen has some good advice for those planning a wedding. This wisdom will save a lot of heartache and fighting:

Get ready for the fact that one person cares less about the wedding than the other and realize this is not the same as caring less about the marriage.
And this is true about most things, not just weddings: in looking for advice on the interwebs, the comments are better guides than the advice of the professionals, who are usually trying to sell something.


Saturday, December 11, 2010
 
Wall Street & Washington

Great post by Russ Roberts on "Capital markets vs. Wall St." and I loved the conclusion:

Until the relationship between large financial institutions and Washington changes, we will have crony capitalism rather than the real thing.
Those on the Left point to government support of Wall Street firms as one of the problems with capitalism, but that isn't capitalism.


 
Week 14 NFL predictions

Cleveland Browns at Buffalo Bills: The Browns are 4-2 after starting 1-5, so they are on the upswing. The Bills have the worst defense against the run and the Browns offense depends on RB Peyton Hillis who has run for 962 yards or 4.4 yard per attempt. Browns score an ugly win a game in which the gusty winds prevents Bills QB Ryan Fitzpatrick from sustaining long drives.

New York Giants at Minnesota Vikings: Brett Favre isn't going to let a shoulder injury end his consecutive game-starting streak. The only question is how long Favre will last. Vikes can win if Brett Favre doesn't play much. But the Vikings are a sideshow to Favre's ego and he'll stay in the game too long. Despite an improving Vikes defense, New York wins on their power running game and stifling D.

Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers: Steelers are banged up and will miss TE Heath Miller and play an injure Ben Roethlisberger. But the Bengals just aren't playing very well despite some quality players. Cincy won't avoid 10th consecutive loss in Pittsburgh in what should be a low-scoring game. Expect the Pittsburgh's defense to stop the Bengals from making it far down field and RB Rashard Mendenhall to help take the load off Big Ben.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Washington Redskins: Bucs are 7-0 against teams that are sub-500 and 0-5 against teams that are better than 500. Skins are 5-7. Bucs win.

Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers: Falcons are tied for the best record in the NFL (10-2). The Panthers are the only team with only one win. Not even playing at home can keep this close; Atlanta by double digits and the result is never in doubt.

Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions: Lions can be a dangerous team, but they seem to always come up short. Green Bay will win, but Detroit will push them despite Packers clear domination in most defensive and offensive categories in both traditional and advanced metrics.

Oakland Raiders at Jacksonville Jaguars: Oakland is certainly capable of winning, but I don't see them winning in Jacksonville. Jax has relied on a lot of luck -- they are 7-5 despite being outscored 43 points. After beating San Diego 28-13 last week and having to travel across the continent, I just don't see the Raiders climbing to 7-6. Jax rides Maurice Drew-Jones to a win.

St. Louis Rams at New Orleans Saints: Rams are improving but they are not in the same class as the Saints. New Orleans should be able to win convincingly, but they needed Bungles stupidity to get past Cincinnati in the final seconds last week.

Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers: Alex Smith is back under center for the Niners and they are missing RB Frank Gore. I would have slightly favoured the home team against Seattle, but I don't trust Smith and don't like the Niners offense with Gore's running game. 'Hawks score the road victory.

New England Patriots at Chicago Bears: Pats have the best scoring offense in the NFL (31.6 ppg) and Da Bears have the third best scoring defense (16 ppg). Playing in Chicago in mid-December might hurt Tom Brady's aerial game (although he has done well when it is cold in Foxboro) but the bigger problem might Chicago's defensive passer rating (71.1, second best overall). Da Bears are very good at putting the pressure on opposing quarterbacks, but the Pats O-line is very good at protecting Brady. Gotta go with New England.

Denver Broncos at Arizona Cardinals: Two teams in disarray. Not sure how Broncs will respond to a new coach. But I am sure the Cards suck. Denver becomes the third team this year to record a victory for their new coach.

Kansas City Chiefs at San Diego Chargers: The way the Bolts season has been going this year, you should expect Philip Rivers to pass for 450 yards and the San Diego defense hold the Chiefs to a single offensive touchdown and somehow the Chargers still lose. But with KC missing starting QB Matt Cassel after emergency surgery to remove his appendix this week, it is hard envisioning the Chiefs winning in San Diego.

Miami Dolphins at New York Jets: Despite surrendering 45 points to the top scoring New England Patriots offense on Monday night, the Jets defense is a very good unit and they will stop the Fins anemic running and passing games. Mark Sanchez rebounds from a bad game (no TDs, 3 picks, 27.8 passer rating vs. Pats) to lead his team to victory.

Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys: A stronger than expected Eagles will face an Dallas team on the upswing. Either team can win. I see Philly making more big plays against a Dallas defense that does a poor job defending against the pass, and that'll be the difference. Eagles by a field goal.

Baltimore Ravens at Houston Texans: Texans have a strong offense and the Ravens have a good, but not typically Baltimore stifling defense. Joe Flacco and his many offensive weapons will pick apart Houston's terrible D on Monday Night Football.

I hate the fact that I'm picking twice as many road teams as home teams. I am positive that won't happen, but based on team-by-team analysis, them is my picks.


Friday, December 10, 2010
 
Tweet of the day

WesSouthAl: "Jesse Ventura should do a Conspiracy Theory episode to investigate why the hell he has a TV show."


 
'How Economics Saved Christmas'

Art Carden in Forbes borrows from Dr. Seuss to show how capitalism saved Christmas.


 
Rare good news story from Iran

Sakineh Mohammadi Ashtiani, sentenced to death by stoning (and later hanging) for alleged adultery, is reportedly free. The Globe and Mail makes the story about Heather Reisman.


Thursday, December 09, 2010
 
The Maccabeats - Hanukkah



 
Ditto what Gerry said

Gerry Nicholls has advice for Stephen Taylor and the National Citizens Coalition. The key:

[S]ocial media alone can't make a difference. You also need to have a vision. You need to engage issues that actually matter. You need the ability to communicate in a persuasive manner. You need the courage to take on battles even if it means going against the odds.
Good advice for activist groups in general.

I also endorse Gerry's advice that the NCC needs to be less cheerleaders for the Conservative government in Ottawa and return to its roots of being an activist leader for the conservative movement. I'm not sure if the founder of the Blogging Tories is the man to do that.


 
Tweet of the day

It's not even 9 am, but there is no way that anything will be better than this. Dan Gardner: Uh, Jeff, you said precisely the same about 2009 and 2010. RT @JeffRubin: What will 2011 bring? Triple-digit oil: http://bit.ly/9mzP6B


 
Kurtz explains Frum

Stanley Kurtz responds to David Frum's response to his criticism of the No Labels project and Frum's earlier criticism of Kurtz's new book (you can follow the links in the latest NRO article if you are having difficulty following). This paragraph sums up everything about Frum very nicely:

Indeed, Frum’s reply continues to reflect the faulty analysis of American politics he advanced in 2008, which has left him isolated and estranged from the conservative movement. Frum failed to anticipate the revitalizing and unifying effect Obama’s radicalism would have on the Republican party. Obama’s leftism has undone Frum’s political plans, and Frum’s refusal to acknowledge that fact and climb down from the liberalizing limb upon which he has stranded himself has driven him to ever more self-defeating measures.


 
NFL Week 14 Thursday prediction

Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans: Peyton Manning has thrown 11 interceptions over the past three games. He didn't have an eleven pick season at all from 2003-2006 (inclusive). As Mike Tanier has pointed out, 5.6% of Manning's career picks have been over the past three weeks. Did he suddenly break down? Maybe, and if he did the Colts are in trouble, not just for the next game but for the season and seasons to come. But that's jumping the gun. He might break out of his funk, but even if he doesn't the Colts should be the Titans. Tennessee doesn't do offense: 30th in total offense and 16th in points scored. Indy, despite Manning's troubles are fifth in total yards and fourth in scoring. Tennessee hasn't scored an offensive touchdown in their past three games -- contests that included the defense-challenged Houston Texans, Washington Redskins and Jacksonville Jaguars. I expect Pierre Garcon and Reggie Wayne to prove they are enough offensive weapons for Manning on Thursday night and for the motley collection of spare running backs to rack up a few yards against Tenny's 22nd-ranked rush defense (123.4 ypg). Indy by double digits in Nashville.


Wednesday, December 08, 2010
 
Tweet of the day

Tim Graham: "Always funny to see libs trash "anti-science" GOP, but when you show them a sonogram, they say "that's not a baby." #itsnotatumor"


 
Very cool publishing development

Publishers Weekly reports:

Business book author Seth Godin's new publishing imprint, The Domino Project, will release an initial list of six titles using Amazon’s new Powered By Amazon publishing program. The program gives authors access to Amazon’s global distribution, multiple format production capabilities (print, audio, and digital), and marketing reach.


 
Four and down

4. Rating the games I watched for entertainment value.

Philadelphia Eagles 34, Houston Texans 24: Back and forth game with the Eagles taking a 20-10 lead into the half, Texans scoring 14 points in the third quarter, and Philly answering with two more touchdowns in the fourth. Both quarterbacks threw for more than 300 yards and Vick had four different receivers with 20 yard-plus catches. Good game. B+

New York Giants 31, Washington Redskins: G-Men dominated and as someone said on twitter, it looked like the Skins were broken. Not a very competitive game. C+

Dallas Cowboys 38, Indianapolis Colts 35: There was a lot of offense in this one: 365 aerial yards for Indy, 217 rushing yards for the Boys. Indy bounced back from a 27-14 deficit with 21 points in the fourth quarter, including a drive in the final two minutes to tie the game. Reggie Wayne made some nice catches in the second half to maintain some great drives for the Colts and Pierre Garcon had a terrific ran for 11 yards which no one saw coming. Peyton Manning threw four interceptions, including two pick sixes and a pick in overtime which gave the Cowboys a short field and the three-point victory. A

Pittsburgh Steelers 13, Baltimore Ravens 10: A hard-hitting, defensive game -- Steelers had 288 total net yards, Ravens 269. Game turned around in the final minute after a Troy Polamalu defensive gem that forced the ball from the hands of QB Joe Flacco. Ben Roethlisberger, playing with an injured foot and a nose broken in the opening drive, then led Pittsburgh's only scoring drive, culminating in a touchdown pass to Isaac Redmen with 22 seconds left. A+

New England Patriots 45, New York Jets 3: The Pats got off to a 17-0 first quarter lead. Every bold move attempted by Bill Belichick worked for the Pats, while every bold move attempted by Rex Ryan failed. It went downhall for the Jets in the final 45 minutes, with Mark Sanchez getting intercepted four times. The O-line routinely gave Pats QB Tom Brady 3-5 seconds in the pocket and he made perfect passes down the middle. The fourth-ranked Jets defense wasn't able to stop the Pats, who destroyed New York. Fun to watch for a while, but by the fourth quarter I couldn't care what was happening on the field. C+
3. A good three-minute segment from the NFL Network in which former coaches Brian Billick (highly over-rated) and Jim Mora (moderately over-rated) make a good point about the TOXIC formula for team success -- winning the turnover battle and the explosive plays battle (20 or more yards). It seems intuitively correct but there are a lot of outliers near the bottom this year to fall in love with this formula.

2. Only four teams can clinch a playoff spot this weekend: the New England Patriots, Atlanta Falcons, New York Jets, and Pittsburgh Steelers. Only the Pats can do it without help (a loss) from another team.

1. It is hard to believe that if the Chicago Bears defeat the Patriots when New England visits on Sunday, that they will vastly increase their chances of finishing first or second in the NFL this year. That said, a final four weeks that include road games against division rivals, the Minnesota Vikings and Green Bay Patriots, and home games against the Pats and New York Jets, means that is an uphill fight.


 
Journalism in 2010

Dave Weigel tweets: "Working on a listicle about the top 5 reasons Obama will get a primary challenge and what it means for Palin. Expect 4,000,000 hits."


 
Up From the Projects

Thomas Sowell on the new Walter Williams book, a memoir, entitled Up From the Projects: An Autobiography. At only 150 pages it will certainly be, as Sowell says, much too short.


 
John Lennon couldn't even make tea properly

Yoko Ono remembers her late husband. It is the kind of stream-of-consciousness you would expect from immature Grade 9 girls: laugh over tea, talk to the cat, mutter something about world peace.


Tuesday, December 07, 2010
 
AIDS/HIV fact of the day

Michael Fumento:

Alzheimer's and Parkinson's, are the nation's sixth and 14th-leading causes of death respectively, yet HIV/AIDS gets 34 times and 25 times more per fatality respectively.
I don't think dollar per death is the best way to determine the correct research funding policy, but those statistics have a way of putting the priorities of governments, foundations and donors in perspective. Fumento has a pie graph that shows on a dollar per death basis, AIDS/HIV gets three quarters of all research funding. Now that puts society's priorities in perspective.


 
If Islamic terrorists strike Canada ...

Can we blame Avi Lewis?


 
Capitulating to Red China and boycotting the Nobel Peace Prize

Daniel Drezner notes that 19 countries have declined invitations to the Nobel Peace Prize ceremony for Chinese freedom fighter Liu Xiaobo, in jail for advocating greater democracy in Red China. Joining Beijing are Russia, Saudi Arabia, Colombia, Pakistan, Kazakhstan, Tunisia, Serbia, Iraq, Iran, Vietnam, Afghanistan, Venezuela, the Philippines, Egypt, Sudan, Ukraine, Cuba and Morocco. That list would rise to 21 if Algeria and Sri Lanka, who have yet to respond to formal invitations, are also no-shows. China has exerted pressure on other states to not attend the ceremony recognizing Liu Xiaobo's activism and the regime's efforts to silence and punish him. Drezner asks:

[W]hat were the key factors that determined a country's decision not to attend Lu's Nobel ceremony? How much of this was due to Chinese pressure, how much was due to ideological affinity with the Chinese regime, and how much was due to the ambassador's spouse renting The Expendables on Netflix and absolutely needing to watch it that night?


 
More on No Labels

Jonah Goldberg has a column in USA Today on the David Frum and William Galston-led No Labels project to move beyond partisanship and name-calling. This is probably the best paragraph to ever appear in USA Today:

Elsewhere, it likens itself to the Korean Demilitarized Zone, which it hilariously describes as an area designed by North and South Koreans alike for "cool heads" to craft "elegant solutions." No Labels wants to be a "Depoliticized Zone" that serves a similar purpose. Never mind that the real Korean DMZ is one of the most heavily mined and dangerous places in the world, where nothing fruitful has happened for half-a-century.
Frum is now emulating North Korea. Nice move.

Debating labels is a waste of time. The No Labels approach to political discourse is fundamentally unserious because it focuses more about how people react to one another than what they are saying. I don't think the reason Congress is not dealing with entitlement reform or the Republicans opposed Obamacare and cap and trade is because of name-calling or fear of being labeled. Rather they have different philosophies and priorities. Turning down the heat by refusing to call Obama a radical or Mitch McConnell a racist is not going to get political leaders closer together on issues, nor is it likely to make agreements among pundits any more likely. Worrying about labels is avoiding debate, not engendering it.

When No Labels says, "We are Democrats, Republicans, and Independents who are united in the belief that we do not have to give up our labels, merely put them aside to do what's best for America," they are missing the point. Partisans believe they are doing what's best for America and in some cases they are probably right, but why compromise with idiots or evil-doers (from their perspective). Seeking the middle ground is an element of politics that is assumed to be good for the country, but people like Frum want compromise as a good in itself. So in the spirit of such compromise, I propose David Frum be cut in half.*

* I'm making a point, not actually advocating violence.


 
Must. Resist. Listening. To. Punk.

Spent much of Monday rediscovering the Forgotten Rebels -- like I never progressed beyond junior high school.



Monday, December 06, 2010
 
David Frum, Speech Policeman

That's the headline on an article by Stanley Kurtz which is sub-titled, "Who appointed these guys the referees of American political debate?" David Frum and William Galston have a new project called No Labels which seeks to increase the light and reduce the heat on political discussion eliminating the ostracizing of those involved in political debate by ostracizing those who ostracize. They don't like partisanship or name-calling. They want people who talk politics to eschew terms like 'racist' or 'socialist' or any comment that might not go over well at a Georgetown cocktail party. So a conservative calling a liberal a 'liberal' would be verboten to permit a "conversation without fear of social or political retribution." Except, of course, for the tut-tutting from Frum and Galston and their ilk. As Kurtz points out, you don't increase the space for political debate by circumscribing by placing No Labels limits on what politicians and pundits can say.


Saturday, December 04, 2010
 
Canadian chief justice extremely stupid -- no surprise

Supreme Court of Canada Chief Justice Beverley McLachlin wandered far from her area of expertise to discuss trade policy and said it should be subject to a review of how it affects women. She told an Ottawa Conference:

It strikes me that if we look at impacts on the environment when we’re going to take on an environmental project, why wouldn’t we look at gender impact when we’re drafting a new trade regime or working on a particular trade problem?
Michael Hart says that the question is moot: "Trade agreements are gender neutral." That is, freer trade benefits everyone. But Brigitte Pellerin has the best line about McLachlin: "You know, I have no idea what she’s talking about… And I suspect she doesn’t, either."


 
NFL Week 13 predictions

Buffalo Bills at Minnesota Vikings: Vikes have the talent and they want to play for new (interim) coach Leslie Frazier. Since October 23, the Bills have been a difficult opponent, winning two games and losing three in overtime. Injuries could hurt Minny on offense with WR Percy Harvin, RB Adrian Peterson and LG Steve Hutchinson all missing (at least some) practice this week and will be game-day decisions. Vikes should edge the Bills in a game that will come down to the wire.

Washington Redskins at New York Giants: If both teams play as good as they are capable of doing, it is a tightly fought contest that ends with a close score. However, the Redskins seem dysfunctional, their defense is inconsistent and injuries have eliminated their running game. Giants in a rout.

Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions: The Lions lost the season opener to Chicago when Calvin Johnson's catch in the end zone was ruled not a catch because of a stupid rule. Detroit has played a lot of close games and their defense is getting better. But Da Bears offense is stellar and Jay Cutler is doing a better job avoiding throwing the ball into opponents' hands. Lions are starting Drew Stanton will start at quarterback and he is backed up by Zac Robinson because Shaun Hill has a broken hand and Matthew Stafford on on the shelf. Chicago easily in Motown.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans: Jax QB David Garrard is quietly putting together an impressive season, but Jeff Fisher's defense should be able to contain what the Jags do on offense. Barring a last second miracle and assuming Kerry Collins starts under center for Tenny, the Titans eke out a victory.

New Orleans Saints at Cincinnati Bengals: Advanced NFL Stats Inc., says this is a coin flip (literally a 50-50 win probability for either team). Saints are very good at everything they do and Cincy has troubles on both sides of the ball, so I don't understand this being a toss-up. Carson Palmer is simply not a very good quarterback and it is easy to imagine him getting picked four times by the Saints defense. Saints get a convincing victory over the Bungles.

Cleveland Browns at Miami Dolphins: Browns can beat poor teams. Fins are a poor team. Cleveland wins in South Florida.

San Francisco 49ers at Green Bay Packers: Despite not being in a playoff spot right now, the Packers are one of the best all-around teams in the NFL. Niners QB Troy Smith doesn't have a chance against Green Bay's defense -- full of disruptive linebackers and secondary -- and Aaron Rodgers should be able to march up the field with ease against San Fran's defense. Packers by double digits against a team coming off a short week.

Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs: While KC gets all kinds of credit for their controlling possession with a stout (if inconsistent) defense and its solid running game, QB Matt Cassel has 19 TDs and just one interception over his past six games, and WR Dwayne Bowe leads the league with 14 TD catches. Chiefs destroy the increasingly hapless Broncs at Arrowhead.

Dallas Cowboys at Indianapolis Colts: Peyton Manning gets some of his team-mates back, which will make up for the pressure that DeMarcus Ware will put on him in Indy Sunday. The Jason Garrett shine is no more. Colts win.

Carolina Panthers at Seattle Seahawks: 'Hawks are usually a very difficult team to beat at Qwest field, but have lost their last two games at home allowing 41 and 42 points against the New York Giants and Kansas City Chiefs respectively. Overall, Seattle is 27th in points score (19 ppg) and 23rd in points allowed (25 ppg), but Carolina is worse: a pathetic 12.7 ppg scored (last overall) and 25.1 ppg against (24th overall). Rookie QB Jimmy Clausen is getting better and the Panthers get RB Jonathan Stewart back from injury. Normally, the Panthers are the cure for a two-game home losing streak because they are comprehensively awful. But on Sunday they are going to be merely awful. Seattle climbs back to 500.

Oakland Raiders at San Diego Chargers: The Raiders no longer look like the tough team to beat that they were through October and Darren McFadden is no longer looking like the running back fulfilling his 2008 first-round hype. The Bolts have not lost a regular season game after November 30 since 2005. And they have impressive overall numbers on offense and defense: first in both total offense and total defense, but if you prefer advanced metrics like Football Outsiders' DVOA, San Diego is 4th in offense and 2nd in defense. If the Indianapolis Colts can't put up a fight against the Bolts in Indy, what is Oakland going to do in Southern California? Get shellacked.

St. Louis Rams at Arizona Cardinals: Rams do some things well. Cards don't do anything well. St. Louis in a laugher.

Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Tampa is 7-4 and on the cusp of a playoff spot, but they haven't beaten a team that is currently above 500. Falcons are 9-2 and will be challenged by the home-team Bucs, but ultimately the workmanlike offense and defense which is nothing flashy but not prone to mistakes, either, will be too much. Atlanta edges Tampa.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens: These teams match up extremely well: six of last seven contest decided by six points or less, four games by a field goal and two in overtime. Pittsburgh and Baltimore are the two hardest teams in the league and when these rivals meet, it gets ramped up. Even with the Monday Night pairing of two 9-2 teams tied for first in the AFC East, this is the best game of the weekend, hands down. Ben Roethlisberger has an injured right foot that has caused him to miss practice this week. That probably hampers the Steelers offense, so expect Rashard Mendenhall to run the ball, with Roethlisberger occasionally setting up in the shotgun to throw. Steel Curtain will contain Ray Rice's running game. From an analytical perspective, I should say the Ravens have the upper hand because Big Ben is hurt and they are playing at home. But I think Pittsburgh scores just enough to come out on top in a game in which fewer than 35 points are scored in total.

New York Jets at New England Patriots: According to Football Outsiders' DVOA metric, the Pats are by far the best offense in football. Jets D is good (7th according to FO), but not shut down. Should be fun to watch. CB Darrelle Revis will cover Wes Welker and Antonio Cromartie will try to keep Deion Branch in check, leaving both TEs, Aaron Hernandez and Rob Gronkowski, open for Tom Brady. Jets QB Mark Sanchez can torch terrible Pats pass defense, but New England should win at home on Monday Night.


Friday, December 03, 2010
 
Life is getting better

Great four-minute, must-see video of how humanity has become wealthier and healthier over the past 200 years. Countries that get richer quicker get healthier faster than countries that do not. The greatest problem facing humanity today is the unequal distribution of capitalism, but as countries embrace freedom and trade the lives of their citizens improve. The problem is that many countries are playing catch-up.



 
Canadian democracy explained

Gerry Nicholls explains Canadian democracy. These are my two favourite parts.

On the Prime Minister:

Some say Canada’s Prime Minister has the dictatorial powers approaching that of a Latin American despot. That’s a complete and utter falsehood. In fact, his powers are more like an African despot.
On voting:

And finally, as the ultimate safeguard of democracy, Canadians have the power to regularly vote in federal elections. That means if we think a government is bad we can always replace it with something worse.


 
Research shows there are not enough hours in a day

Especially for parents. Wall Street Journal blogger Sue Shellenbarger writes about a recent study presented at a conference on how parents are pressed for time and consequently skip grooming and eating to work and take care of their kids. Suzanne Bianchi, a sociology professor at the University of California, says of parents:

They also report “feeling always rushed” and that they have too little time for themselves or their partners, Dr. Bianchi told about 200 government officials, researchers and employers at the conference.

The added effort also may come at a cost of quality of time spent with children. Working parents multitask twice as much as they did in 1975; in fact, many multitask slightly more than half the hours they are awake, another researcher, Barbara Schneider, an education professor at Michigan State University, told about 200 researchers, government officials and employers at the conference. While mothers say they feel more productive while multitasking, they also report higher levels of frustration, irritation and stress as a result, based on data from Dr. Schneider’s long-term study of 500 families.
The answer to the problem of not having enough time and having too many worries is not giving a shit about things. A laissez faire attitude does wonders for stress levels. See Bryan Caplan on how worrying less about one's kids will do wonders for both parents and children:

The main problem with parenting pessimists, though, is that they assume there's no acceptable way to make parenting less work and more fun. Parents may feel like their pressure, encouragement, money and time are all that stands between their kids and failure. But decades' worth of twin and adoption research says the opposite: Parents have a lot more room to safely maneuver than they realize, because the long-run effects of parenting on children's outcomes are much smaller than they look.
No one believes this, but it is hard to ruin a child's life. And once adults understand this, they can get their lives back -- and all those hours each day.


 
Increased airport security makes America less safe

Steven Horowitz, an economist with the Mercatus Center and St. Lawrence University,
explains that inconveniencing travellers at the airport will force them to drive which is more dangerous than flying:

To the degree that the new TSA procedures raise the psychic cost of flying, either by increasing the wait time at security and/or by making people very uncomfortable with see-through scanning or being fondled by a TSA agent, it will induce them to look for alternative methods of travel. For most people, that will be driving rather than flying. And the reality is that you are far more likely mile for mile to be killed in an automobile accident than in an airplane. The most dangerous part of air travel is driving to the airport. And if you consider not all of the risks of flying but only the risk of what the TSA procedures are supposed to prevent, namely the extraordinarily small chance of being killed in a terrorist attack on an airplane, it is even more likely that you will die in your car than on the plane.


 
Is it possible to have a discussion about cuckoldry being worse than rape?

Robin Hanson renews his discussion over whether cuckoldry might be worse than rape. Of course, Hanson is a controversialist so I assume the argument is deliberately provocative.


Thursday, December 02, 2010
 
Tweet of the day

Andrew Lawton: "I just lost my third Risk game in a row. I feel like France."


 
State should stay off our TV sets

Gizmodo reports:

Earlier today, Congress passed a bill called the Commercial Advertisement Loudness Mitigation Act (also known ad the CALM Act). This bill could prevent advertisers from forcing annoyingly loud commercials on us by making them abide to volume control guidelines.
Should Congress really set a precedent for banning annoying and loud?


 
Week 13 NFL predictions (Thursday edition)

Houston Texans at Philadelphia Eagles: Houston has a terrible pass defense, so Michael Vick should light up the scoreboard by going to DeSean Jackson and Jermey Maclin often and deep. Texans are just 2-5 against quality opponents (teams that are currently better than 500), and one of those victories was way back in the season opener. Philly has the offensive and defensive weapons, while Houston is a mess defensively and with the exception of RB Arian Foster, mediocre on offense. Eagles win easiliy at home.


Wednesday, December 01, 2010
 
Midweek stuff

1. From Science Daily: "Engineer Provides New Insight Into Pterodactyl Flight."

2. Every book that Art Garfunkel has read, in the order that he read them. Here's a list of his 151 favourite books. I wish more people had such a list publicly available.

3. Fast Company profiles Boing Boing, a website that is a rich source for this blog's stuff feature.

4. Every Sports Illustrated Sportsman of the Year cover. Can you guess the only person to be named Sportsman of the Year twice? I wonder if they would reconsider, considering what has happened since?

5. From Cracked: "6 Deadly Injuries You Think You'd Survive (Thanks to Movies)."

6. Clean energy is shitty; a Business Week special report: "Poop-to-Natural-Gas Makes a Stink in Texas: The biggest anaerobic digester plant, which converts manure to methane, is getting a second chance after going bust."

7. Forbes interviews Wikileaks founder Julian Assange.

8. Sarah Silverman turns 40 today. This video is not safe for work, but it makes me laugh every time because, as she says, she might be the first comedienne to "shit on Martin Luther King":



 
An astrobiological discovery -- is there extraterrestrial life?

NASA press conference tomorrow. This is going to be significant -- having examined the participants in the press conference, Jason Kottke suggests the discovery of arsenic on Titan, one of Saturn's moons:

if I had to guess at what NASA is going to reveal on Thursday, I'd say that they've discovered arsenic on Titan and maybe even detected chemical evidence of bacteria utilizing it for photosynthesis (by following the elements). Or something like that.
The press will both overplay this story and get it wrong. And to answer the headline question: if bacteria exists, yes, but not the kind of life we should get too excited about. Of course, the discovery of extraterrestrial bacterial life wouldn't be anything new.


 
WaPo's new conservative blogger

Jennifer Rubin is now a conservative blogger at the Washington Post. Her credentials -- blogging for Commentary and frequent contributions to The Weekly Standard -- are unquestionable. First blog post is here and she promises not to "go native."


 
Great news because the world needs more Anthony Powell

As Tyler Cowen notes, Anthony Powell's 12-volume A Dance to the Music of Time is being released on eBook and the first volume, A Question of Upbringing, is free. The rest will be $8 each. I'm not an eBooks reader, but I am thrilled that a few more people might read Powell's opus than would have otherwise. For more details, see the University of Chicago Press website. You can get the free volume here.


 
Sounds fair, doesn't it?

Planned Parenthood tweets: "AIDS is a women's health issue--half of all people w/HIV are women. Let's make sure global women's health isn't overlooked!" Makes sense that 50% of the population would account for 50% of a health problem that we are told doesn't discriminate. Of course, that's true on a global scale. In Canada, however, men are ten times more likely to get AIDS and five times more likely to have HIV.


 
Women who support Roxanne's law

Great promo for Roxanne's Law which would add coercing an abortion to the Criminal Code.



You can read more about Roxanne's Law at this website and follow it on Facebook.