Sobering Thoughts |
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Comments on politics, the culture, economics, and sports by Paul Tuns.
I am editor-in-chief of "The Interim," Canada's life and family newspaper, and author of "Jean Chretien: A Legacy of Scandal" (2004) and "The Dauphin: The Truth about Justin Trudeau" (2015).
I am some combination of conservative/libertarian, standing athwart history yelling "bullshit!"
You can follow me on Twitter (@ptuns).
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Tuesday, November 30, 2010
Analyzing the Ford victory Canada's media has largely ignored Patrick Luciani's AIMS analysis of Rob Ford's victory. He makes important points ("the split between suburbia and downtown Toronto doesn’t tell the whole story" and "attack homeowners’ equity value and you’re sure to pay a political price") that should become part of the narrative about Toronto politics in 2010-2011 but won't. Generally I recommend reading the all-too-brief analysis (four pages), but I disagree with this: Liberals and the left have always patronized new immigrants and simply assumed they could count on their support come election time. That era has passed, if it ever existed.I am not convinced this move to the right among ethnic voters is happening. The fact that there was no party label attached to the candidates, at least formally, gave "permission" to immigrants to look at the people running for mayor and their ideas rather than automatically backing their political tribes. That's why I am unconvinced there is much reason to be optimistic about the chances of the provincial Progressive Conservatives and federal Conservatives in Toronto in the near future. Is it worth worrying about either? Bryan Caplan and Meagan McArdle on whether destruction of the biosphere (The Road) is more likely than rapture (Left Behind). McArdle thinks there is a greater possibility of The Rapture happening that the Earth becoming uninhabitable (in a broad sense). Four and down 4. Grading the games for entertainment value. Pittsburgh Steelers 19, Buffalo Bills 16: It's not quite fair to grade this game because the oldest son and I watched it live in Buffalo. About half the fans were wearing Black and Gold and as more than one Bills fan lamented, it wasn't really a home game. Steelers dominated the first half, controlling possession for about 25 of the first 30 minutes; the Bills didn't get a first down until inside the final five minutes of the second quarter. Yet, Pittsburgh only led 13-0 going into half-time. Buffalo tied it up with a third quarter touchdown and early fourth quarter field goal, Pittsburgh got back the lead with a field goal and the Bills tied it again with seconds left. It is always fun watching old-school Steelers football: hard-hitting defense and the running game. Rashard Mendenhall rushed for 151 yards against the worst rushing defense in the NFL. It is frustrating watching Ben Roethlisberger hold the ball too long and scramble and give up unnecessary sacks, but he delivered passes of at least 16 yards to four different receivers. The game went to OT which is always exciting (especially in person). Steve Johnson dropped a long but catchable pass in the end zone five minutes into overtime which would have clinched the upset. Instead, the Bills were forced to punt and Big Ben marched his team back down the field for the game-winning field goal. A+3. The Indianapolis Colts have been struggling because they can't run the ball, can't stop the ball and they rely too much on Peyton Manning. But lately Manning must shoulder a portion of the blame. He has given up seven picks in two weeks and has posted just one passer rating above 70 in his last four games. He looks hurried in the pocket and as Cris Collinsworth pointed out Sunday night, he looked worried about getting hit. He has dealt with injuries to various receivers over the past few years by making their young replacements look like stars, but he hasn't done that in recent weeks. He missed Pierre Garcon and Reggie Wayne by several yards a few times in Sunday's contest and that isn't completely on the receivers. Nobody wants to criticize Manning but right now he isn't playing like a top quarterback and it goes beyond not having Dallas Clark and Joseph Addai in the game. 2. The Minnesota Vikings out-rushed the Washington Redskins 137-29. That's lop-sided, but not as lop-sided as the Monday nighter: the San Francisco 49ers out-rushed the Arizona Cardinals 261-13. 1. Going into Sunday's game, the Houston Texans had the worst scoring defense and one of the bottom five total yards defenses. They beat the Tennessee Titans 20-0. 'Science' as fiction New Scientist reports that, "the UK's Royal Society has published detailed study of how the world will look when it is 4 °C warmer." Here is the Royal Society's "study". Just to be clear, it might be informed by science, but their conclusions (guesses) are still made up. Why does any editor let Warren Kinsella write a column Kathy Shaidle mocks Warren Kinsella's QMI column which is lame, lame, lame. Actually, I presume it's lame; life is too short to read Warren Kinsella columns which are neither informative nor entertaining. But reading the Furious One's take-down of Kinsella's lameness is thoroughly rewarding. Roberts on GM Russell Roberts doesn't like GM's thank you commercial to the American public. Instead of thanking taxpayers, he says, they should be apologizing. Robert Latimer gets full parole News here -- no links to the story in any news source at National News Watch. My thoughts on Latimer are at Soconvivium, which I should have titled, "Latimer's parole: A father's outrage." I've received many responses to this post already, several of which condemn my anger. I won't deny being angry; indeed more than once I had to remove the words "pissed off" from the draft. There are some things worth being pissed off about. The drug war will be photographed Boston Globe's Big Picture blog has 40 photographs from Rio de Janeiro's drug wars. Several photographers really put themselves in harm's way for some of these shots -- and the police were brilliant embedding them to help rally the public in favour of the government's campaign. Good PR for them. Monday, November 29, 2010
Tweet of the day Peter Jaworksi: "ust 5 votes separate Pirate and Green Party in #WpgNorth: Hard to figure out if voters want adventure on high seas more than polar bears." Three and out (Yankee free agent edition) 3. Glad to see that negotiations with Mariano Rivera are going smoothly. He wants two years and an increase of a million or two over his $15 million/season deal that he just completed. Normally I wouldn't like the idea of paying any reliever more than $30 over two years or giving any 41-year-old pitcher a deal for that kind of money going into his age 43 season. But Mariano Rivera is something special. And the Yankees can afford to take a financial hit like that to keep fans happy. 2. Rumours are the Texas Rangers may have contacted southpaw starter Andy Pettitte who has said he will either retire to his home state of Texas or play another season with the Yanks. Pettitte may find playing close to home for a season for a team that could make a another playoff run intriguing, but he should be taken at his word when he says it is the Yankees or no one. I think the Rangers are playing a game with the Yankees as part of the high stakes signing of Rangers ace Cliff Lee -- you go after our starter, we go after yours. 1. Derek Jeter probably is not near testing the free agent market. The Wall Street Journal concludes a story on the possibility of Jeter signing with another team thusly: "In all likelihood, Mr. Jeter would have to be so disillusioned by the Yankees' unwillingness to come close to meeting his demands — and so dismayed by the way they have portrayed him in public — that he would consider taking less money to play elsewhere." I hope they aren't at that point yet. Jeter will be overpaid, but the Yankees need him for more than his glove and bat, and he needs the Yankees. These are two brands who are too intertwined for them to make a money or baseball move that makes sense. And as with Rivera, the Yanks can afford to overpay. Sure Jeter might only be worth $10 million a year as a hitter and fielder, but filling that need in a weak shortstop market, might be worthwhile even before bringing the Jeter brand back. Nate Silver's post on Jeter is worth reading; he concludes the value of the proposed Yankees deal is in line with the combination of player/brand value Jeter brings to the club. I couldn't have been more wrong about the Winnipeg-North by-election The Tories will win two of three by-elections tonight, but they are not even in the picture in Winnipeg-North, where there is a neck-and-neck race between the Liberals and NDP (44.5%-42.4%) and the Conservatives are running at about 10%. Results here. I predicted a sweep for the Conservatives. True, but ... Cornel West tweets, "Sometimes we just fall in love with lies." Absolutely true, but people would disagree what constitutes a lie. Four and down 4. If the playoffs started today the Jacksonville Jaguars (6-5) would host the wild card New England Patriots (9-2) and, worst, the St. Louis Rams (5-6) would host the wild card New Orleans Saints (8-3). The Indianapolis Colts (6-3) and Green Bay Packers (7-4) are out of the playoffs. 3. The Kansas City Chiefs are 7-4 and leading the AFC West, but the San Diego Chargers are 6-5 after winning four in a row, including the humiliating 36-14 defeat of the Colts last night. The Bolts next four games are against the Oakland Raiders, Chiefs, San Francisco 49ers and Cincinnati Bengals. It would not be surprising to see San Diego 10-5 going into the final weekend and in position for a playoff spot. 2. Who would have thought before the season started that the Chiefs, Rams, Jags and Chicago Bears would be winning their respective divisions. It is possible that someone would have predicted one of those, but predicting two of them would have been such a long shot. That said, the playoff brackets aren't set in stone after Week 12. The Rams could be on the outside if Seattle wins one more game than they do, the Bolts should overcome the Chiefs (see point 3), the Colts will probably leapfrog Jax once some of their injured players return, and the Green Bay Packers are capable of jumping ahead of the Bears. So as exciting as these surprising teams are, it shouldn't surprise anyone to see a few of them fall back to Earth. 1. I would like to talk about the Colts loss last night and my trip to Buffalo to see Pittsburgh Steelers, but I don't really have the time tonight, so I'll write those up tomorrow. Instead, I just want to point out that tonight's battle of 3-7 teams -- the San Francisco 49ers and Arizona Cardinals -- is meaningful. The winner will be 4-7, just one game out of first in the NFC West behind the 5-6 Rams and Seattle Seahawks. Getting it backwards New York Times notes on their website today, "Talk to The Times: Editors and reporters are answering questions." Inside the "story" entitled, "Answers to Readers’ Questions About State’s Secrets," it states, "Editors and reporters of The Times are answering questions from readers about the series this week." Remember when reporters were the ones asking the questions? Complete BS about the Canadian Senate Eric Grenier is trying to be Canada's Nate Silver. His ThreeHundredEight.com is the Canadian version of fivethirtyeight.com, right down to the name. And instead of getting published at the website of the New York Times, he is in the Globe and Mail. And like 535.com/Silver, 308/Greneir uses polling numbers and dubious assumptions to make interesting and sometimes supportable points. Sometimes his arguments are dubious, at best. Today he makes an interesting but ultimately unsupportable argument that if the Meech Lake Accord passed and if we started electing senators in 1995 and if sitting senators were grandfathered out and if, if, if, if ... the Tories would have a slim plurality in the Senate (43, Conservatives, 41 Liberals, 13 Bloc and four NDP). That is based on yet another assumption, "These senators were elected according to the proportion of the vote each federal party received in each province where vacancies existed, with an extra advantage given to the party with the most votes," at the time of the real-life federal elections. Problems abound with that assumption: elected senators would have changed the agenda and outcome of legislation and therefore the whole political landscape would be different due the interactions of the government in the House of Commons and the Senate; the candidates for senator would have changed results, as would the simple act of voting for senators could affect votes for MPs; the elections affecting senators were not based on eight-year terms; some of the unelected senators would have resigned from the Upper Chamber earlier; if the Meech Lake Accord passed, there would be no need for the Charlottetown Accord and the Tories might not have been reduced to two seats in the 1993 election which would have changed all the election results after that point. There are other problems, but you get the point: pretending to have any answer to what an elected Senate would look like today if Meech passed two decades ago presumes a linearity in politics (in life) that does not exist. By-elections prediction I will boldly predict a hat trick for the Tories in today's three by-elections. I think the combination of the crime issue and depressed Liberal support will help the Conservatives pick up the NDP riding in Winnipeg-North. They retain Dauphin-Swan River-Marquette and take Vaughan from the Liberals. The health care debate? What health care debate? Tyler Cowen has a number of observations about the state of Obamacare/health care coverage in America, but none is as important as this point: The Republicans still don't have a good alternative plan or compromise to offer, should a chance for renegotiation arise. Too big to succeed? Or too socialist to compete? Paul Whitfield in The Deal suggests that BHP Billiton Ltd., thwarted in its efforts by Ottawa to buy Potash Corp., might be too large to strike any kind of deal because regulators will be concerned about its size. The suggestion is put out there, but then Whitfield changes direction quickly: BHP Billiton could have secured a deal but it didn't do enough sucking up to politicians: The extent to which BHP neglected the importance of winning over Canada's political class, and in particular Saskatchewan's provincial legislature, is impossible to quantify. But there are hints the company realized too late that it had misplayed its hand.Hate to bandy about the word socialist, but enterprises working in free market economies should not have curry favour with the political class. At the very least, the rules need to be clear and decisions transparent, otherwise private companies (and citizens, too) are left to operate in an environment in which the whims of a politician can change everything overnight. So Whitfield is correct to note: The skimpiness of the Potash ruling -- the government said little more than that the deal did not deliver a "net benefit" -- served to highlight the flaws in Canada's ill-defined foreign takeover review process (though Canada is hardly unique in that respect). The government has promised to review the process, and if that provides some clarity, it should be welcomed.My question is simple: why would politicians surrender that power -- to make companies beg them for permission to operate -- with rules that are not open to their discretion? New rules for takeovers are necessary and couldn't come soon enough, but does anyone expect them to be released before the next election, or the one after that? Saturday, November 27, 2010
Weekend stuff 1. The turducken of cakes: three pies (cherry, apple, and pumpkin) baked inside three cakes (yellow, spice, and white). 2. From BlogTO: "The top 10 buildings lost to demolition in Toronto." Chorley Park and the original Toronto Star building were impressive. 3. Flamingos congregating in a flamingo formation. 4. The 10 coolest kitchens of celebrities (via Instapundit). Most don't live up to the billing, but Sheryl Crow's kitchen with the on-the-ground aquarium rates as cool. I'm liking Winona Ryder's home. 5. Researchers have determined that April 11, 1954 was the most boring day in history. 6. An incredible fact (if true): "Mr. Rogers weighed in at exactly 143 pounds every day for the last 30 years of his life." That's from the Mental Floss list "15 Reasons Mister Rogers Was the Best Neighbor Ever." 7. From Kottke, a great story about finding the cheaters in a university class. 8. I don't know if it's really juggling, but it's neat. Friday, November 26, 2010
Tweet of the day David Freddoso: "RT @johntabin: "powerful semiautomatic weapons"? No one on the NYT editorial board knows anything about guns. http://nyti.ms/gSfRC3" Four and down 4. Grading the Thanksgiving games for entertainment value. New Orleans Saints 30, Dallas Cowboys 27: Saints led 20-6 going into the half. Dallas stormed back and took the lead. Lots of great opportunistic defense on both sides, with defenders never quitting, trying to punch balls out of receivers and rushers. After the Cowboys went ahead 27-23, Dallas was was driving again. WR Roy Williams was stripped by Malcolm Jenkins at the Saints 11 with about three minutes left. The Saints followed with an 89-yard drive to pull ahead just after the final two-minute warning. Jon Kitna got the 'Boys at the cusp of a desperation field goal and Dallas kicker David Buehler, who earlier hit a 53-yard field goal, missed the 59-yard attempt. There were four attempts to convert fourth-down. There was nearly 900-yards of total offense between the two teams and just one pick for each side. There was everything you wanted to see in a game. A3. SteelerGurl on how the Pittsburgh Steelers can beat the surging Buffalo Bills: run the ball. Not a lot, just enough to keep opposing defenses honest. Opponents can't be allowed to double cover Mike Wallace all the time. The Bills have the worst rush defense in the NFL so it's time for Rashard Mendenhall to have his first 100-yard game since September. And Steeler Gurl is right: this contest is not an easy game. The Bills have back-to-back wins following back-to-back overtime losses. Ryan Fitzpatrick is a real quarterback and Stephen Johnson is a legit receiver. Pittsburgh will likely win, but it won't be easy. 2. The Chicago Bears are 20th in rushing offense and 24th in passing offense and they are 7-3. At some point you don't score enough even if the defense isn't surrendering points. 1. Remember a few weeks ago when most of the teams were bunched together in the standings and two-thirds of the league appeared legitimately in contention for the playoffs. Not so much anymore: the cream rises, injuries occur, Randy Moss joins your team, and mediocre clubs come back to Earth. Or as the FanHouse Power Rankings put it, "finally some separation." It is still possible for a 500 club to break out and win four in a row to interject themselves back into the playoff picture (although because of injuries the Tennessee Titans and Miami Dolphins probably won't) or some 700 club falls back to Earth once it finally faces some real competition (I'm looking at you Tampa Bay) or a team's luck runs out (Jacksonville) or a team signs Randy Moss (Titans, again). In other words, stuff is still going to happen. Foreign investment limits Trade specialist Michael Hart has a terrific column in the Ottawa Citizen on the feds stopping the BHP Billiton takeover of Saskatchewan's Potash Corporation. This is probably the best column on the issue. The central problem is that limiting foreign investment makes Canada poorer: "All Canadians are the victims of this misguided nativism, paying more for goods and services, gaining less in dividends and taxes, and missing new employment and investment opportunities," because some people in both government and the private sector are "mesmerized by the illusion that civil servants can outperform the market and divine something called "net benefit" to Canada before the fact." Robson on 'don't touch my junk' as a liberty call John Robson has a great column on sexual assault and pornoscanners as national security measures. An excerpt: At one point U.S. Secretary of Homeland Security Janet Napolitano babbled "I think we all understand the concerns Americans have about that. It's something new. Most Americans are not used to a real law-enforcement pat-down like that." No. And I'll tell you why, you dim bunny: They aren't criminals, and they rightly resent being treated as such. It keeps them from getting where they're going, gets them groped, and diverts the attention of security forces from the obvious bad guys.Read the whole thing. Some religions are more religious than others Dan Gardner is tweeting the Christopher Hitchens/Tony Blair debate on religion. Liked this comment: "Interesting that 'religion' has become 'the Abrahamic religions.' Does that piss off Hindus?" Sun TV approved Sun TV News -- aka Fox News North -- was approved by the CRTC today. As CBC reported: In its statement, the Canadian Radio-television and Telecommunications Commission reiterated "the importance of maintaining and enhancing the plurality of editorial voices in local and national markets and ensuring that Canadians are exposed to an appropriate plurality of those voices."I am glad that Sun TV News was approved for a national news broadcast license, but I am concerned that the national regulator might try to determine what the "appropriate plurality of ... voices" might be. I am worried about what appropriate means. Is there a quantity of voices that is appropriate or is the CRTC in the business of determining what is an appropriate voice -- or both? Vaughan by-election close The Toronto Star says there are signs that the by-election in Vaughan is close. It's a play on words because the anecdote that kicks off the article is about a controversy over the Tories removing Grit signs that were placed too close to their election headquarters. In an ideal world both Conservative candidate Julian Fantino and Liberal candidate Tony Genco would lose. Thursday, November 25, 2010
Tweet of the day Janet Neilson: "The pat-down I got at DTW wouldn't have been more dignified in a private booth. In fact, I'd rather have witnesses." Where does it stop? The Halifax Herald endorses the proposal by the NDP government in Nova Scotia to regulate the tanning industry: In laying down the law on tanning beds, Maureen MacDonald is only standing up for common sense.The editorial goes on to say that not only is MacDonald defensibly supporting this undertaking, she might even have a responsibility to do so, or as the Herald says, she is "duty-bound" to take these actions. Protecting citizens "from harm as much" as the government can is a broad principle and one that would eliminate freedom, indeed all human activity. If the goal is protecting people, the government should ban driving and most foods. Cars and fatty foods cause more causalities than artificially induced tans. Truly the oddest line in Canadian political history "I have people touching my private parts all day long." So said Liberal leader Michael Ignatieff. It's even better when you hear/watch it: Four and down 4. The San Francisco 49ers are 3-7 in a division, the NFC West, lead by the 5-5 Seattle Seahawks. The Niners still have a game against the 'Hawks and St. Louis Rams and a pair against the 3-7 Arizona Cardinals. The division is up-for-grabs, but it will be an uphill battle for San Fran who also play the Green Bay Packers and San Diego Chargers. Excluding divisional contests, the 4-6 Rams have winnable games against the Kansas City Chiefs (at home) and at Denver this weekend. Seattle gets the Chiefs and Carolina Panthers at home and a road match against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. 3. Jason La Canfora of NFL.com explains why Mike Tomlin of the Pittsburgh Steelers "might be one of the best young coaches in the history of the game." 2. Darrelle Revis has not been the shutdown cornerback for the New York Jets this season that he was in 2009, but it was probably impossible for him to be that spectacular in back-to-back campaigns. It was a mistake, however, for Cincinnati Bengals WR Terrell Owens to taunt Revis as being "just an average corner." Jets CB Antonio Cromartie is having a monster season and there should be little doubt that the combination of Revis and Cromartie will cause problems for Owens and Chad Ocho Cinco. 1. On the Monday Night pre-game show, Matt Millen lost it with Steve Young while discussing Brett Favre and Brad Childress. Of course Millen is correct to say that Young doesn't know what's going on in the locker room -- nobody really knows, even reporters who talk to players and coaches who are there. But, Matt, it's a football panel discussion and the panelists are offering informed opinions from different NFL experiences. Young was a Super Bowl-winning quarterback and Millen was the architect of the 0-16 2008 Detroit Lions. But for Millen the hothead to get that angry over a fellow panelist offering a defensible opinion -- which admittedly could be an incorrect opinion -- shows he does not belong as an analyst on television. Wednesday, November 24, 2010
Tweet of the day John Collison: "Most 'journalists' tend to be #PoliticallyCorrect power-worshipers who like to police language while paying lip service to #FreedomOfSpeech" Midweek stuff 1. I think an article about "Flying Snakes, Caught on Camera" should include video. 2. Christopher Dawson -- not that Christopher Dawson -- says teachers should stop prohibiting the use of Wikipedia. 3. TaxProf Blog has a list of the 10 highest state income taxes rates -- all are Blue States. 4. Big Think has a "Map of the World's Countries Rearranged by Population." Very cool. 5. A Cuban celebrates imported oranges. A must-read. 6. Penelope Trunk on "What it's like to have sex with someone with Asperger's." Difficult to read and not for delicate readers. 7. $1,000 jeans. In the Wall Street Journal, of course. 8. Bullshit on lawns. Part II is here. Too many governments and too many homeowners are nuts about lawns. NFL Week 12 predictions New England Patriots at Detroit Lions: Pats are getting better as the season progresses and the Lions are looking more like the Lions of the '00s. New England wins easily on the road on Turkey day. New Orleans Saints at Dallas Cowboys: The Saints are looking more like the 2009 version, playing diverse offense and opportunistic defense, but the Cowboys are playing as good as their talent level suggests they should. I wouldn't be surprised if Dallas ekes out a victory, but I just can't predict that yet; I'm not drinking the Jason Garrett kool-aid. Cincinnati Bengals at New York Jets: The Bengals are bungling. The Jets are doing everything well. Mark Sanchez to Santonio Holmes is a great scoring combo and they'll pair up at least once for score. Jets by double digits to close out Thursday's trio of games. Pittsburgh Steelers at Buffalo Bills: We'll be at the game on Sunday, joining thousands of Steeler Nation who will make the three-and-a-half hour trip to Buffalo. The Bills started 0-8, but have won their last two, scoring more points last week than any other team in the NFL (49) and out-scoring the Cincinnati Bengals 42-3 after the half. But those two wins came against the Bengals and Detroit Lions, a pair of teams that could only muster two wins through ten games. (If the Steelers were named after big cats, they might be in trouble.) Pittsburgh has a stifling defense and Ben Roethlisberger should be able to exploit Buffalo's D which has given up 27.6 ppg, fourth worst in the NFL. Jacksonville Jaguars at New York Giants: Both are 6-4, the G-Men because they have dropped back-to-back after being declared the NFC's best team in early November, Jax after improbably winning back-to-back games. Giants are underperforming, the Jags are overperforming. New York wins at home to bring greater balance to the cosmos. Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans: The wheels have fallen off of Houston, with the defense in shambles and their offense a shell of its former self. Tennessee has its own problems, starting with Vince Young (out for the season with an injury, but that might be a blessing in disguise) and continuing through Kerry Collins (also injured) and Randy Moss (being on the roster). I might be tempted to pick Tenny if anyone other than Rusty Smith was starting, but without Young or Collins, it looks like the Titans could be the first team not to score at least 24 points against the Texans in 2010. Green Bay Packers at Atlanta Falcons: Probably the two best teams in the NFC right now, so this contest is a possible preview to the NFC Championship. Packers defense has allowed just 10 points in their past three games and Aaron Rodgers is leading an offense that is missing key ingredients. Falcons have methodically efficient -- that is, boring -- offense. But boring will help them win a close one at home. Carolina Panthers at Cleveland Browns: Browns are playing good football and beating bad teams. They don't come much worse than Carolina. Browns QB Jake Delhomme -- Colt McCoy is nursing an injury -- will hand the ball off to Peyton Hillis to a convincing double digit victory. Minnesota Vikings at Washington Redskins: Hard to predict because we don't know how Leslie Frazier will do as the man running the show from the sidelines or how the underperforming Vikes react to their new coach. The Skins are capable of almost anything -- winning or losing close ones or being blown out by a Brett Favre who has on a dramatic rebound. Purple Jesus could do that against a Skins defense that is giving up a league worst 411.1 yards per game (only six teams in the whole history of the NFL have given up more than 400 ypg over the course of a season). This game should be close and tightly fought, but my money is on the home team. Kansas City Chiefs at Seattle Seahawks: I've liked what the Chiefs have done most of the season, but they've regressed a little in recent weeks and the 'Hawks are always tough at home. Seattle scores the victory. Miami Dolphins at Oakland Raiders: Although the Raiders looked terrible against Pittsburgh, there is a risk in thinking that a loss against an elite team after travelling east indicates exactly what kind of team Oakland is. They'll be looking for revenge. Miami has been thoroughly unimpressive over the past few weeks. Raiders win. Philadelphia Eagles at Chicago Bears: While all attention this weekend is on the Falcons-Packers game, this one features a pair of 7-3 teams. Da Bears have a rejuvenated and elite defense that is tied for first in scoring defense (14.6 ppg) and third in total yards allowed (290.4 ypg). They have yet to surrender 24 points or more in any single game. The Eagles have a dangerous offense led by the rejuvenated Michael Vick. Will probably come down to how often Chicago turns over the ball. The O-line has a done a better job lately protecting Jay Cutler who has been throwing fewer picks in recent weeks. Chicago upsets the resurgent Eagles if they limit the turnovers. St. Louis Rams at Denver Broncos: Either team could blow out the other or it could be a coin flip. As much as I like the strides the Rams are making -- Sam Bradford is having a solid rookie campaign under center, Steven Jackson is a threat on the rush and the defense is solid -- I can't pick St. Louis on the road against Kyle Orton. Denver is tough to beat at Mile High. Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Baltimore Ravens: Bucs are 7-3 but they've beaten up on bad teams. The Ravens are very good. I expect Josh Freeman, who has done well for the Bucs and cutting his interception percentage by fuller two-thirds since 2009, will have troubles with Baltimore's defense. Tampa's front seven is a bit of a liability, so I expect Baltimore's Ray Rice will pound the ball up the middle, taking pressure off Joe Flacco against a deceptively decent Bucs secondary. Ravens win convincingly in a game that might be close in score but not on the field. San Diego Chargers at Indianapolis Colts: Bolts opportunistic defense will step up to pressure Peyton Manning, who is beginning to look like he is missing his various offensive weapons. Philip Rivers is playing more like Manning than Manning is. Bolts are the hot team, Indy is not. Gotta go with San Diego. San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals: Probably the worse Monday Night Football game in years. I'm going with the Cards in this battle of 3-7 teams. Tuesday, November 23, 2010
Tweet of the day Brian Lilley: "Whatever you think of Sarah Palin it is truly sad that her daughter gets death threats for being on a dance show." Four and down 4. Grading the games I watched for entertainment value: Chicago Bears 16, Miami Dolphins 0: Da Bears seemed to so completely dominate this game that it was surprising to read the final game report and see that third-string Fins QB Tyler Thigpen pass for more yards (187) than Bears gunslinger Jay Cutler (156). Bears did just enough to beat a team that was thoroughly inept. D3. There has been a fair bit of criticism for Peyton Manning's throw toward the end zone from New England's 24 with 37 seconds left and Indy behind New England by three points. Manning was intercepted and the game was over. The gist of the criticism is that the Colts shouldn't have risked a pick, but rather play it safe and go for the field goal and take their chances (50-50) in overtime. That is nonsense. If Manning makes the play, he is heralded as a hero and no one criticizes him or coach Jim Caldwell. Those, after all, are the plays that Manning makes. Playing for the tie -- playing not to lose -- is what losers do. The Colts are winners and they take calculated risks to win games. They have Peyton Manning under center, not Tyler Thigpen or Jason Campbell or even Jay Cutler or Donovan McNabb. Manning does the two-minute drill better than anyone. He already completed a pair of 73-yard drives in the fourth quarter and if he was successful, he would have completed a 74-yard drive. Scoring drives is what Peyton Manning is all about. I don't blame the Colts or Manning for going for the victory. I would have criticized them for playing unColts-like football and risk a loss in overtime. 2. Do the Arizona Cardinals have a chance to win the NFC West. They are 3-7, but just two games out of the lead. And as Gregg Easterbrook notes, they will not face another team that currently has a winning record, with their opponents collectively sporting a 14-34 record. 1. I noted yesterday that the dominant meme of this season is that it is wacky. But that is no reason to make it wackier than it already is. Anyway, Peter King of Sports Illustrated has his own version of a Power Rankings of the Fine 15. As King explains, "I've blown up the Fine Fifteen, promoting the Packers and demoting the Jets. I admire the Jets quite a bit for their late-game moxie, and it's all about the W's, but in the past three weeks they've had to fight to the death to beat two- (Detroit), three- (Cleveland) and four-win (Houston) teams. I'm giving Green Bay BCS style points for winning three in a row by a combined 85-10." King needs to shake up the Fine 15 because that's part of the 2010 narrative: the standings are all topsy turvy. But if the Jets were good enough for the top spot last week after a pair of close victories, why does another close win radically change the rankings? Later King notes that the Jets are beating poor teams, but in routing the Minnesota Vikings, the Packers aren't exactly defeating top competition. And doesn't gutting out narrow, come-from-behind victories, demonstrate something special? Especially with the impressive drives sophomore Mark Sanchez led? And even if the Jets, who have now won five in a row, warrant a demotion, do they really deserve to topple from first to fourth? I think you can make a case that the Packers are the better team, but I don't understand how the Jets can drop three spots in one week. And how do the Packers move up from 5th in the Fine 15 to first after beating the lowly (3-6 before the game) Vikings? Laureen Harper speaks out against Iran's barbarism Laureen Harper's political activities are usually subtle and behind the scenes, so when the prime minister's wife takes up the cause of Sakineh Mohammadi Ashtiani, sentenced to be hanged for alleged infidelity, it is a big deal. She brought together more than a dozen prominent Canadians to brainstorm on the best way to ensure the cause remains in the public eye. I don't believe Tehran cares one bit about international opinion, but it is nice to see Laureen Harper raising a genuine human rights issue. Aren't there still poor people in the world? The World Bank commits $100 million to help save wild tigers. There is no such thing as free speech in Canada Blazing Cat Fur is being sued for a half-million dollars for linking to a Mark Steyn article by, you guessed it. And yes, you read that correctly: $500,000. You can show your support for BCF, the blogger husband to blogger extraordinaire Five Feet of Fury, at a Chanukah party/fundraiser on December 1 organized by JDL. Here's the info: JDL Chanukah Party to support Blazing Cat FurPope Hat has a great post on freedom of speech in the United States and Canada. The post is very long and well worth reading, but here is an important excerpt: In Canada, you’d better watch what you say if you want to criticize The Man. You’d better make sure every word is the literal truth, and that you can back it up with records. Monday, November 22, 2010
Tweet of the day Joe Posnanski: "Brett Favre has a deep and complicated NFL legacy. Part of it is in his turbulent final 5 years, he helped get 3 coaches canned." Four and down 4. The Minnesota Vikings fired coach Brad Childress. It is notable that two teams many experts (myself included) thought would be playoff bound, the Vikes and the Dallas Cowboys, are the only two teams that have fired coaches this year. Of course, it isn't that either team was not meeting expectations but that both talent-laden teams had high expectations and sported one of the worst records in the NFL (1-7 when the Boys fired Wade Philips, 3-7 when Minny let Childress go). The team was playing terrible under Childress but he was in an unenviable position: he had one of the greatest quarterbacks in history on his roster getting paid more than $20 million a season but that quarterback was also a giant liability because he was no longer effective. What was Childress supposed to do? The right answer, bench him, was never really an option. You can't keep high-priced, future Hall of Famers on the bench, even if that is the best move to increase the team's chances of winning or seeing what you got for the 2011 season. 3. ESPN's James Walker raises the issue of whether the league is making an example of the Pittsburgh Steelers after officials 14 penalties (for 164 yards) against the the Steelers Sunday in their game against the Oakland Raiders. Players and coaches are being careful not to criticize the zebras, but considering that some of the calls were not only wrong, but not close, you have to wonder if Roger Goddell and his boys are targeting the Steelers for playing aggressive defense after they were outspoken about rule changes that are going too far in sissifying the league. It doesn't help Pittsburgh that it has a reputation for hitting hard, but the league isn't trying to get rid of hard hits, it is trying to eliminate needlessly dangerous hits. That's a worthy of goal, but the league hasn't thought through the effects on the entire physical game lest someone be accidentally called for an illegal hit. 2. There are a lot of football fans who probably don't know who Dwayne Bowe is. He is the wide receiver for the Kansas City Chiefs that has 10 TD catches over the past six games, including four games with a pair of them. That's consistency, not just beating bad opponents. 1. The meme for the 2010 season is that it is a crazy or wacky season. Anything can happen any week. Teams that were losers in 2009 are contenders this season. The Houston Texans beat the Indianapolis Colts to open the season but later lose four games in a row and aren't much of a factor. The thing is, this happens every season (well not the Texans beating the Colts, but them being a non-factor does). About half of the playoff teams one year don't make it the next. The West divisions always suck. Some team always starts strong and fades; some team always starts poorly and makes a strong run. Some team always come out of nowhere to be a surprise contender (Miami Dolphins in 2008, Cincinnati Bengals in 2009, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Oakland Raiders in 2010). Before this season started, most experts had the Green Bay Packers winning the NFC North (check), the Atlanta Falcons and New Orleans Saints battling for the NFC South (check, but add the Bucs), the New England Patriots and New York Jets battling for the AFC East (check), the Baltimore Ravens edging the Pittsburgh Steelers (right now they hold the tie-breaker), and the Indianapolis Colts winning the AFC South (they are tied with the upstart Jacksonville Jaguars). The San Diego Chargers are making their typical second-half move up the standings in the AFC West. Over time normalcy will appear and it is. More about the "wacky" season tomorrow. Dave Nolan, RIP Robert Poole remembers the libertarian who inspired "the world's smallest political quiz." Canada's Afghanistan policy Last week, opposition MPs were grilling Defense Minister Peter MacKay on Canada's Afghanistan policy and he didn't really answer the question. Opposition MPs said he was obfuscating, but I think there is another reason for his non-answer: he doesn't know. The federal government's Afghan policy could be described as a work-in-progress or it could be the result of shifting political sands. Prime Minister Stephen Harper could announce a new nuance any time or clarify his position into something quite different or change course altogether at any given moment. The changing policy might have to do with what is happening in central Asia or might have more to do with the political calculus in Quebec and Ontario, although they can never admit the latter. It is unfair to ask MacKay to speak on a policy that might be different from the one the government briefed him on that very morning and could change before the evening newscast. The subtle shifts that aren't shifts, unless they are, can't really be defended and excused or explained, so why pretend to. The latest policy is described here and I'll provide a bottle of champagne to anyone who can convincing tell me what it means and correctly provide a deadline for how long it remains the policy of the government. McGuinty has lessons for Harper Ontario Liberal Premier Dalton McGuinty should not have won re-election in 2007. Indeed, after numerous scandals and missteps by the government, Ontario Tories were talking about forming government ten months before the October election. John Tory was a terrible leader, but McGuinty was Teflon and the Liberals were returned to power. Now, however, polls show the Ontario Liberals behind by nine points and it looks like McGuinty is no longer Teflon. An unending stream of negative stories has taken their toll. I don't think Tim Hudak's Progressive Conservatives have done anything to warrant being ahead, but McGuinty has clearly annoyed enough Ontarians to drop his party a distant second in the polls. Of course things can change and he might bounce back, or the polls could get worse for McGuinty. Who knows, perhaps the pre-writ numbers tank even worse and McGuinty goes the way of Gordon Campbell. A lot can change between now and next October. The lesson for the federal Tories is this: for a long while the negative stories might only dint the armour without harming the governing party until all-of-a-sudden it does. No one knows what the event or storyline will be that moves voters, but it is seldom seen and often cannot be explained in its own right. At some point, the balance of the scales tip. The Harper Conservatives should not be so arrogant that they can withstand the onslaught of attacks and understand that all is fine in the face of endless criticism is true up to the point that it isn't any more. And then Prime Minister Michael Ignatieff becomes a reality. Liberals implicitly admit their arrogance From the Hill Times: "They were equipped for popular fundraising. We weren't," Liberal Party President Alf Apps told The Canadian Press earlier this month. "And there's a long lead time for building it up."Admitting the party's fundraising failures is the result that they just are not very good at it admits that the Liberals had no idea how to be an opposition party. They have spent nearly a half-decade now in the wilderness and they are just beginning to understand that they have to do real, serious fundraising that does not rely on their God-given right to return to power to payback favours. One gets the impression that they thought if they just waited long enough Canadians would come to their senses and elect the Liberals back into government. They do not seem to realize we have entered an age of competitive politics, and they are not at all prepared to do battle. Sunday, November 21, 2010
Wish I wrote this Tim Marchman commenting on the fact that fewer than half of Americans know which party won control of the House of Representatives in the historic mid-term elections just three weeks ago: "public disinterest in politics is a reflection of political disinterest in the public." Is Canadian journalism in real danger? Susan Delacourt's piece in the Toronto Star under the headline "Is Canadian democracy in real danger?" is some of the most overwrought political writing I've seen in a long while. It is sort of reporting -- she mentions some political scientist from Wilfrid Laurier as a launching pad for writing about the decline of the House of Commons in Stephen Harper's Ottawa -- but there are a lot of mights, mays, and somes that betrays the fact that this article was purely conjured in Delacourt's head. Friday, November 19, 2010
Ignatieff and his caucus mirror relationship of Iggy and Canada The headline in the Toronto Star on Chantal Hebert's column, "Ignatieff and Liberal base moving farther apart," also describes what is happening between Iggy and the voting public. The Grits don't like their leader and neither does the typical Canadian. His party disagrees with Ignatieff on policy such as Afghanistan, Canadians find him plain disagreeable (not to their liking). Polls show the Liberals mired in numbers that just won't deliver seats and surveys on various qualities show he is the least liked of the three federal party leaders. The best column you'll read all week John Robson writes about food, but he isn't writing about food. Defies excerption. Thursday, November 18, 2010
Tweet of the day Kathy Shaidle: "Unless it says "dies" I don't care RT @tweetdrudge Rangel weeps... http://bit.ly/b0nHQy" Midweek stuff 1. M.I.T. Technology Review reports on augmented reality goggles. Cool, but why would someone use them? 2. From Cracked.com: "The Biggest Star Wars Plot Hole, Explained By Science." 3. Incredible images from the Daily Telegraph: "Micro Monsters: scanning electron microscope images of insects, spiders and creepy crawlies." 4. A blog about bad sci-fi/fantasy book covers. 5. The Wall Street Journal on celebrity chefs doing burgers -- $60 burgers. Don't miss the slideshow (I loved pics 7 & 9 -- eggs or potato chips on burgers are delicious). 6. Wired's Danger Room blog reports on the Israeli army's snake-bots. 7. Listverse has "10 Ancient Methods of Birth Control." 8. Sharktopus The peacekeeper myth dies hard J.L. Granatstein, Senior Research Fellow with the Canadian Defence and Foreign Affairs Institute, gags on Liberal peacekeeper rhetoric. Foreign aid for dictators William Easterly has an essay in the New York Review of Books on how western foreign aid money is propping up African dictators. The stats: In any case, dictators have received a remarkably constant share—around a third—of international aid expenditures since 1972. The proportion of aid received by democracies has remained stuck at about one fifth (the rest are in a purgatory called “Partly Free” by Freedom House). As for US foreign aid ... more than half the aid budget still went to dictators during the most recent five years for which figures are available (2004–2008).But why? Easterly explains: A more important political motive for aid is independent of cold wars or wars on terror. Aid agencies exist to give aid, so they must keep the money flowing. The department of an aid agency assigned to help a country may not get a budget next year if its officials don’t disburse to the country’s ruler this year; so they hand out funds no matter how autocratic he is. (The autocratic recipients know this and know they can ignore any “raised concerns” about democracy, including human rights.) Only the most well-publicized and egregious violators of democratic principles—like Robert Mugabe—get cut off. Pornoscanners Daniel Drezner has a lot of useful observations about full body scanners at airports and why the public supports the concept: they'll support anything that ostensibly increases safety. Drezner suggests that it is possible the government is using this technology simply to appear to be doing something about air security, which might be the only plausible explanation considering that full body scanners do not improve safety. Nonetheless, it is notable that none of the chattering class -- left, right or libertarian -- is defending pornoscanners. Unfortunately, so few people fly that the inconvenience and indignity of the full body scan is unlikely to offend enough people to get this policy reversed. Looking at 2012 Philip Klein at The American Spectator says that Mitt Romney is the person most likely to win the Republican presidential nomination in 2012. That seems correct, but less true than it was three or four months ago. I think this Congress and what it does and doesn't do in early 2011 could radically alter the political landscape and thus the Republican primaries. Chicago politics I post this in its entirety because it was part of one of Tim Marchman's "Things that are interesting" blog posts and it shouldn't be missed: The mayoral race is on here in Chicago and I'm a proud member of the Go Away Rahm party. Since the only thing most of the other candidates have going for them is that they aren't Rahm Emanuel, I'll end up supporting either an incredibly corrupt pol or a kook, and right now I'm leaning toward a kook. Like Wilfredo de Jesus, a Pentecostal pastor out of Humboldt Park who offers the following as his qualifications:What qualifies me is two years ago, the now-President Barack Obama, addressed me to be a surrogate for him to travel around the country. After several series of meetings, I took on the position of an advisor to the President, to be able to go and galvanize the evangelical vote for him. So that qualifies me, on that end, that the President of the United States saw something in me to represent him around the country.If anyone ever needs you to explain Chicago politics to them, just note the order in which the impressive figures Barack Obama, Richie Daley and God are listed here. Three and out 3. I would have predicted the manager of the year award winners in both leagues incorrectly, but the voters made the right choice. In the American League Minnesota Twins skipper Ron Gardenhire beat out Texas Rangers manager Ron Washington who I thought would win hands down. Gardenhire's team won more games and did so while missing closer Joe Nathan all year, Justin Morneau for the second half of the season and getting sub-MVP numbers from his All Star catcher Joe Mauer. Pop quiz: name the third starter on Minnesota? Name an infielder? I find it strange that Toronto Blue Jays manager Cito Gaston finished fifth with a single vote -- a first place vote. How can one of 28 voters think he is the most deserving and not one other voter not place him amongst their top three? In the National League, San Diego Padres manager Bud Black edged out Cincinnati Reds skipper Dusty Baker by the narrowest of margins (one point). I thought it would be a three way race and be won by San Francisco manager Bruce Bochy. Black took a team that no one thought was a 500 club and had them in contention for the NL West on the final weekend. Pop quiz: name one batter other than 1B Adrian Gonzalez on the Padres? 2. Felix Hernandez will win the American League Cy Young Award which will be announced later today. He deserves it.I'm guessing that voters understand that giving it to the 20-game winner is dumb because it rewards the performance of the team rather than the pitcher. CC Sabathia will get a lot of votes but could finish third behind Hernandez, Boston Red Sox starter Clay Buchholz or John Lester or Tampa Bay Ray David Price. I'd vote Hernandez, Price, Sabathia. I wouldn't be surprised to see Sabathia have almost as many first place votes as Hernandez but not many second place votes; sabermetrically inclined voters are likely to eschew Sabathia altogether. Buccholz has 19 wins (second in the AL) and the underlying numbers to garner votes from both camps. The more I think about it, the more I think he might win, yet in some ways I'd be surprised to see him higher than third. 1. Tim Marchman on sabermetrics: "Fancy statistics are good things to have access to, but sabermetrics really, genuinely isn't about grabbing random numbers and using them to support your points, and it's discouraging that the acceptance of saberism by the baseball press has just led to people studding weird arguments with irrelevant numbers." NFL Week 11 predictions Chicago Bears at Miami Dolphins: Da Bears have allowed just two sacks in their past two games so they appear to have fixed their O-line problems. The Fins are using clipboard carrier Tyler Thigpen under center after both Chads (Henne and Pennington) got hurt on Sunday. Thigpen is the best third-string quarterback in the NFL, and I don't mean that as an insult, but preparing for a Thursday night game is difficult enough for regular starters. Mike Martz has designed good game plans the past two weeks and Jay Cutler has done a good job executing them. In this short week, he might not have time to come up with as good a game plan, but the Bears will still edge Dolphins to deny Miami their first home victory of the season. Houston Texans at New York Jets: Texans have gotten really bad really quickly and their defense can't stop a thing while their offense has gone missing in action. The Jets are a very good team with numerous ways to beat you. New York might actually win this one convincingly after consecutive overtime victories. Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings: The fourth and presumably final Brett Favre Bowl has the Vikes struggling and the Packers ascending, but never under-estimate Favre's ability for dramatics. By a straight analysis, the Packers are the better team, both on defense and offense, although some advance metrics suggest the Vikings are not floundering in the way that the absence of some marquee traditional stats (sacks) suggests. Going counter what logic dictates, I will bet on Favre; Minnesota scores the home victory with a come-from-behind win in a game that will feature both teams turning over the ball thrice. Washington Redskins at Tennessee Titans: Skins have been in most games this season until Monday night's stinker against the Philadelphia Eagles. Titans are a solid team with good defense and dangerous offensive weapons in Vince Young, Chris Johnson, Randy Moss and Kenny Britt (if healthy). Don't think Moss can't contribute just because he caught one pass in his Titans debut last week. Should be a tight game with Tenny prevailing by a score. Arizona Cardinals at Kansas City Chiefs: The Cards are a very bad team. How bad? Derek Anderson is starting at quarterback again bad. The Chiefs running game and defense should easily dispatch the visitors. Baltimore Ravens at Carolina Panthers: The Ravens have a good but not shutdown defense this year and the combination of Joe Flacco, Anquan Boldin and Ray Rice can make things happen on offense. The Panthers have the worst quarterback situation in the league, and following injuries to Matt Moore and Jimmy Clausen must decide to start either the second quarterback they picked in the 2010 draft, Tony Pike, or Brian St. Pierre, a veteran who has started two games in his career (2004 and 2009) in which he combined for five passes. Worse yet, RB DeAngelo Williams is out for the season and second RB Jonathan Stewart is skipping this week`s practices due to injury. Ravens will destroy the Panthers. Buffalo Bills at Cincinnati Bengals: Now that Buffalo finally won a game, Cincy's six-game losing streak is the longest in the NFL. The Bengals may have become the Bungles, but they can win at home against the hapless Bills. Oakland Raiders at Pittsburgh Steelers: The Steelers have two interconnected problems: injuries on the O-line make it one of the most porous in the league and Ben Roethlisberger takes a lot of time making plays and gets sacked too much. The former exasperates the latter. Oakland should not be under-estimated this year. But there is no way Pittsburgh will lose back-to-back at home. Cleveland Browns at Jacksonville Jaguars: The 5-4 Jax record is a bit deceptive considering that two of those victories came on improbable long-distance, last-snap-of-the-game plays. Browns are tough opponents. Cleveland by a field goal. Seattle Seahawks at New Orleans Saints: 'Hawks don't travel well and the Saints are in top form. New Orleans by double digits. Atlanta Falcons at St. Louis Rams: The Rams are getting better and their fairly stout defense is one of the big surprises of 2010, but they can't compete with the methodical, solid play of the Falcons. Game will be closer than most expect, but Atlanta prevails. Tampa Bay Buccaneers at San Francisco 49ers: Tampa beats inferior teams, but it is unclear if the Niners are inferior now that Troy Smith is under center. In two games (warning: small sample size) he has a 116.6 passer rating and is averaging 276 yards, with 2 TDs and no picks. The Niners are unlikely to throw away the game with Troy Smith passing the ball and they pick up a desperately needed win. Amazing that at 3-6 they are only two games out of the division lead with seven games remaining. Indianapolis Colts at New England Patriots: Why isn't this game in prime time? The annual November classic between AFC powerhouses is one of the most anticipated games of the season and this one favours the Pats. They are coming off an impressive win, the team is diversely talented, and mostly healthy. The Colts squeeze everything out of their team despite numerous injuries and Peyton Manning makes heroes out of nobodies seemingly every week. But Manning has been pedestrian in recent games and Bill Belichick is an infinitely better coach than Colts boss Jim Caldwell. New England gets the victory. New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles: NFC East division leaders seek to take sole possession of first. The Giants put up good enough numbers against Dallas on Sunday but were hurt by turnovers, while Philly destroyed Washington on Monday. It's one bad game for the G-Men so it is too early to tell whether they are beginning a second-straight second-half slide. The Eagles haven't had a bad game all year. The New York defense needs to rebound to stop the dynamic Philly offense. DeSean Jackson is a huge playmaker and Michael Vick has seemingly turned into a combination of Dan Marino and Bobby Douglass. Philly wins to take the division lead. Denver Broncos at San Diego Chargers: The Bolts are getting all their pieces together, Philip Rivers is playing on a sub-500 club and meriting MVP discussion, and it's the second half of the season when San Diego turns back into an elite football team after spending the first half as a pumpkin. Bolts by double digits in southern California as Denver continues its Jekyll and Hyde routine. Wednesday, November 17, 2010
Tweet of the day Luc Lewandoski: "The Freep Analyst Gets It Wrong: How out of touch does Dan Lett have to be that the only time he mentions "pandering" it is about crime?" Are Tea Party Republicans all talk? Politico reports that Tea Party favourites in the Republican Party who talked about slashing government don't want a spot on the Appropriations Committee: Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-Minn.) was asked to be an appropriator and said thanks, but no thanks. Rep. Steve King (R-Iowa), a tea party favorite, turned down a shot at Appropriations, which controls all discretionary spending. So did conservatives like Lynn Westmoreland (R-Ga.) and Jim Jordan (R-Ohio), an ambitious newcomer who will lead the influential Republican Study Committee...Possible reasons, none of which are mutually exclusive? 1) Opposition rhetoric is easier than governing. 2) It was only talk. 3) They earnestly want to cut spending but don`t know what to cut. 4) They don't want to be tempted to spend. 5) They don't want to be blamed for cuts to popular or niche programs. 6) They are actively undermining the Republican leadership. I do not believe the sixth possibility is true and lean toward some combination of one, three (which are subtlety different) and five. Left-wing think tank opposes Harper crime agenda Of course the Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives disagrees with the Conservative government's get-tough-on-crime agenda. It disagrees with it philosophically. I'm skeptical myself. But the argument that the Harper crime agenda is too expensive doesn't quite hold water. Yes it is costly, but the CCPA doesn't do a serious cost-benefit analysis, it only adds up numbers on the cost side. People hear $5 billion to build prisons and man them with security and that sounds like a lot of dough. But protecting society and punishing criminals is one of the few legitimate functions of government and its first responsibility, so those costs are much more defensible than one penny going to education or health care. University-level fascism From the National Post: The student association at Carleton University has decided that any club that is opposed to abortion has no place on campus and would have its funding as a student club cut off.Sometimes I am of the mind that whenever one side of a debate tries to censor the other it is a sign of weakness by those doing the banning: why forcibly silence the dissenting point of view if you can beat them in debate. But increasingly I think that the default position for those in power is to silence those who disagree simply because they can -- those too stupid or evil to disagree don't deserve to be heard. Frances Russell is wrong about free trade Winnipeg Free Press columnist Frances Russell says free trade is undemocratic because of investors' rights provisions of free trade agreements that favour corporations. Never mind her silly invocation of democracy when she means something else. Russell is right about free trade agreements which only marginally open markets among countries, but she is confusing free trade with free trade agreements. A 2000-page free trade agreement is an oxymoron. The problem isn't free trade, it's the agreements which continue to manage trade and impose mechanisms to adjudicate disagreements. Three and out 3. Philadelphia Phillies starter Roy Halladay deserves his Cy Young and deservesto be the unanimous choice. Ostensibly it was "close" as he and Adam Wainwright who had nearly identical win-loss records (21-10 for Halladay, 20-11 for Wainwright) and ERAs (2.44 and 2.42 respectively), but Halladay pitched great baseball from Opening Day to the end of the season, including a perfect game (which shouldn't matter too much in voting in considering the overall season's performance) in more than 250 innings. He led baseball with nine complete games and four shutouts. He was clearly the very best pitcher in the National League and deserved each and every one of those 32 first-place votes. 2. Cliff Corcoran talks up Halladay's Hall of Fame credentials. He's not there yet but he's on the right path. 1. The Atlanta Braves traded utility player Omar Infante and left-handed reliever Mike Dunn to the Florida Marlins for 2B Dan Uggla. The Braves need right-handed power and in Uggla they get that: 289/369/508 with 33 HRs in 2010 and in his first five years had HRs totals of 27, 31, 32, 31, 33. Rob Neyer doesn't like this deal so much for the Braves; while they are a better team, there is some puzzling uncertainty in the use of young players that this acquisition will require. I would guess that with Uggla in the final year of abritration and headed to the free agent market if Atlanta doesn't sign him, that the Braves are making a move for 2011 and worry about everything else later. Four and down 4. According to the Cold Hard Football Facts Michael Vick is having an epic season. Fifth Down's Toni Monkovic has a collection of quotes and links to Vick's "transformational" performance Monday night. It was about as good an all around game a quarterback can have. I can't believe that Philadelphia Eagles WR DeSean Jackson said the team played like pit bulls Monday night. 3. Writing at Fifth Down, Chase Stuart, a contributor to Footballguys.com, says the New York Jets are a decent bet to fulfill Rex Ryan's boast of a Super Bowl. Or at least get to the post-season. 2. The NFL is a what-have-you-done-for-me-lately league (and rightfully so) and therefore it is not surprising that the Pittsburgh Steelers have released Jeff Reed, one of the most accurate kickers in NFL history, the day after he missed a 26-yard field goal attempt against the New England Patriots. Reed has made just 68.2% of his field goals this year, but has a career field goal percentage of 81.9% (good for 12th all-time). The Steelers signed former Washington Redskins and Dallas Cowboys kicker Shaun Suisham who has a career 79.1% kicking percentage but who was unsigned in the off-season. Reed has spent his career kicking in difficult Heinz Field, where he was 4/9 this year, compared to 11/13 on the road. The Steelers are taking a gamble on Suisham being better than Reed -- an understandable gamble but one that may not pay the dividends the team is hoping for. The Cincinnati Bengals are looking for a kicker after Mike Nugent was injured, but they signed rookie Aaron Pettrey instead. Reed will be a nice pickup for some team that decides they need a different kicker sometime in the next month. 1. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are 6-3 but have not defeated a team that is above 500 at this point in the season. Not to begrudge their own winning record, but a soft schedule has helped them look a lot better than they really are; I wouldn't be surprised if next year -- assuming there is a season to be played -- the Bucs are the Cincinnati Bengals of 2011. Tuesday, November 16, 2010
Tweet of the day Fred Thompson: "New Obama kids book features short biographies of 13 Americans. Must've been hard to not write about himself 13 times in a row." Laissez faire parenting Bryan Caplan's masterful essay, "The Science of Success: Why Parents Should Push Their Kids Less, and Enjoy Them More." I am convinced that if more parents gave less of a shit about their children and let them be kids and not worry about damaging their long-term health/personal growth/fragile egos/whatever, more parents would have more children and enjoy their time with them more. Four and down Grading the games I watched for entertainment value. Atlanta Falcons 26, Baltimore Ravens 21: Falcons squandered a 13-point lead to relinquish the lead including a touchdown by the Ravens with a minute, five seconds remaining. Down 21-19, Matt Ryan led Atlanta on a finishing drive and game-winning touchdown with 20 seconds remaining. Throughout the game, the Ravens defense was not dominating and the Falcons built their lead. Joe Flacco led two fourth-quarter touchdown drives. A really solid effort by the Falcons and a good effort the Ravens. Two very good teams performing well but not great. The late-game lead changes were thrilling. A-3. The Redskins loss puts them at 4-6 and they face a difficult schedule: Tennessee Titans, Minnesota Vikings, at New York Giants, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, at Dallas Cowboys, at Jacksonville Jaguars, New York Giants. Minny and Dallas have losing records but can be tough to beat. Jax and Tampa are better than I expected and could have a reality check coming but they now 5-4 and 6-3 respectively. G-Men often struggle down the stretch. Tenny is a legit contender for the AFC South. Going 3-3 would be tough and 2-4 is realistic. 2. Two fantastic tweets from the weekend. i) FO_MTanier: "Paul hornung drinks with his pinkie up! He has earned the right."1. The Jason Garrett-led Dallas Cowboys upset the New York Giants on the road. It is one game, we are told, so don't read too much into it. But perhaps it does mean something more than just one win. The Cowboys were a talented team, a team whose individual parts were much better than their 1-7 record. It could be argued that on talent alone, it is one of the five or six best teams, certainly on offense. They just weren't getting the job done, and in one game under Garrett they did. They looked like a different team. If that team -- the Dallas Cowboys that beat the New York Giants 33-20 -- shows up for all their remaining games, there is no reason they couldn't run the schedule other than doing so is highly unlikely. They have the talent and now the drive to win any game. Garrett had a back-to-basics pads-on practice during the week, demanded players show up to practice on time and wear a suit while traveling on Sunday. It is a new attitude, and it is precisely what the Cowboys needed. The question is whether they can sustain it. It seems that Jason Garrett's job depends on it. It's just politics Andrew Coyne has a great column about the Conservative Party's "principles" in which he says that pundits should stop charging the Harper government with abandoning its principle when following this or that policy -- $56 billion budget deficits or thwarting foreign takeovers -- because the Tories have become just like the Liberals: Someday, historians will write about those Tory ministers who, under pressure, had the courage to do the wrong thing. Still, after so many such examples, it might occur to someone that these are their principles: not the ones they are presumed to have, based on past statements, but the ones they actually practice.The Conservatives, like most political parties, are guided by a single principle: that they and not the other parties should be in power. Fair trade/free trade Donald Boudreaux on a farmer who was interviewed who said that he favoured free trade but that it had to be fair trade: Whenever anyone utters that line, always hear him or her as saying "we don’t need free trade; we need protection. I’m just too cowardly to say so." Straight-up appeal to vote by ethnicity The Winnipeg Free Press reports on Michael Ignatieff's appeal to ethnic voters: VOTERS in Winnipeg North deserve a "straight-up" campaign free from attempts to split the Filipino vote, said Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff Sunday.That's pretty disgusting, but predictable. Usually Liberals pander to ethnic groups with a wink and nod, but desperate times call for brutal honesty. Ignatieff also pandered to Polish voters in the riding: During his brief visit, Ignatieff attended a celebration of Polish independence at the Polish Fraternal Aid Society of St. John Cantius on Mountain Avenue, where about 60 people were gathered. |
