Comments on politics, the culture, economics, and sports by Paul Tuns. I am editor-in-chief of "The Interim," Canada's life and family newspaper, and author of "Jean Chretien: A Legacy of Scandal" (2004) and "The Dauphin: The Truth about Justin Trudeau" (2015). I am some combination of conservative/libertarian, standing athwart history yelling "bullshit!" You can follow me on Twitter (@ptuns).

 
Midweek stuff

1. Science Daily has an article on "Why Powerful People -- Many of Whom Take a Moral High Ground -- Don't Practice What They Preach."

2. Forbes has a story and slideshow on the most expensive diseases in America (for society as a whole not the patient). I was a bit of surprised that cancer ranks only fourth.

3. This is a few weeks old: the Daily Telegraph reported that a Norfolk, England "Aquarium lowers water levels after feeding turtles brussel sprouts" because last year after being fed the sprouts as a treat, the green sea turtle's gas set off overflow alarms at the Great Yarmouth Sea Life Centre. (HT: Boing Boing)

4. Women drivers. Or, more properly, women parkers.

5. The New York Times has a list of its top 10 travel stories of 2009, from "Frugal Paris" to "Top 10 Travel Gadgets Under $50." In that "Frugal Paris" story I was intrigued by the possibility of sliced duck breast and goat cheese as pizza toppings. And this in a piece on train travel: "[I]t’s still possible to travel 3,585 miles across the United States without being the target of billboards, golden arches or absurdly large twine balls. The rails offer a view onto Unbranded America — the land as it was."

6. New Scientist has links to its 12 most popular articles.

7. "Reason Staffers Pick The Best and Worst Things of The Decade." I wasn't shocked to find the "rise of the blogosphere" on the list; I was shocked that it was on the worst things side of the ledger.

8. Wired.com's Epicenter blog reports that "Rumors of Written-Word Death Greatly Exaggerated."

9. Gerry Nicholls has a humourous look back at 2009.

10. IPhone has an application called I am T-Pain which autotunes your conversation to a T-Pain song. That`s background for this video: T-Pain - Obama Auto Tune video - Jimmy Kimmel live!


posted by Paul Tuns at 9:33 AM

 
Four and down

4. The NFL Pro Bowl teams have been announced and there are a few surprises. Randy Moss, who leads the NFL in receiving TDs is not on the AFC squad. That is certainly punishment for his moodiness. As I already noted he leads in TDs and, with Larry Fitzgerald having a merely great year, is the best player on the perimeter, bar none. This is an unjust snub. I also question the inclusion of NFC CB Asante Samuel who is often outplayed (bad routes, poor tackles, out-smarted by opponents) but was obviously chosen because he leads the NFL in picks (9). Team-mate Sheldon Brown is probably the better secondary player but has only five interceptions; there's more to picking cornerbacks than counting picks. I would have picked Pittsburgh Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger over Tom Brady of the New England Patriots; Big Ben and Captain America are practically tied in every category (yards, completion percentage, passer rating) with Brady having the better TD to pick ratio (28:12 compared to 23:12) but Roethlisberger has nearly a full yard per pass advantage over Brady. I don't know who you remove to get Percy Harvin (WR for the Minnesota Vikings) on the NFC squad: team-mate Sidney Rice, maybe? Many of the picks were safe and predictable, but there are very few objectionable and unjust choices, although the Moss snub stands out as an exception.

3. A few teams have no representative the Pro Bowl teams: the Atlanta Falcons, Cincinnati Bengals, Detroit Lions, Kansas City Chiefs, Seattle Seahawks, Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Strange how a team as good as the Bengals (first in the AFC North) has no one. I would have put MLB Dhani Jones on the Pro Bowl team instead of DeMeco Ryans of the Houston Texans, but a case could be made for either player. A pretty good case could be made that Falcons TE Tony Gonzalez is having a better year than reserve TE Jason Witten. However, Witten's superior blocking can come into play when deciphering the better player although it is hard to overlook Gonzalez's 6 to 1 TD reception advantage. I would have picked Minnesota Vikings tight end Visanthe Shiancoe over either of them, which is not easy to do considering 1) I detest the Vikes and 2) Witten is my favourite TE. With those exceptions (Jones and Gonzalez), it is hard to make a case for any player from those teams making the Pro Bowl.

2. I was a bit surprised that the Washington Redskins had a representative on the NFC squad but rookie OLB Brian Orakpo has had a phenomenal year and deserves to be a Pro Bowl reserve. There will be some griping that his team-mate MLB London Fletcher didn't make the Pro Bowl (again) but his reputation slightly exceeds his abilities and anyway Patrick Willis (San Francisco 49ers) and Jonathan Vilma (New Orleans Saints) are quite clearly better and more deserving players.

1. Back to Sunday's game in which Indianapolis Colts coach Jim Caldwell decided to rest his starters midway through the third quarter. Here's another way to think about Indy's decision to not play for a perfect 16-0, from a commenter at Joe Posnanski's blog: "There have been 43 Super Bowls. That means there have been 43 Super Bowl winners. If I were to ask a football fan 'Who won Super Bowl 13?', they’d probably have to think for a little bit before they came up with the correct answer, the Steelers. But if I were to ask that same person 'Who is the ONLY undefeated team since they started playing Super Bowls?', they’d probably say the Dolphins immediately. Boils down to this, greatness is great, but immortality is better. Play the starters. Go for immortality."
posted by Paul Tuns at 2:02 AM

 
Three and out

3. Sky Andrecheck at SI.com has a list of the worst contracts in baseball. It is hard to argue with his list, which is a pretty standard list. Vernon Wells, a completely average centerfielder who is rapidly declining in the field and has suffered a significant loss of both average and pop since inking his large, long-term deal, is universally acknowledged as having the worst contract in the Majors. Typically what these deals have in common is that they were signed after career years; not all hit the free agent market (Wells was a contract extension) and some were a matter of teams overpaying to fill a need in a weak market (the Seattle Mariners signing Carlos Silva to a 4-year $48 million contract after the 2007 season) or paying a pitcher for wins rather than actual performance (the St. Louis Cardinals giving Kyle Lohse a 4-year, $41 million deal after his 15-win 2008 season). What makes these contracts particularly bad is that they limited the flexibility of teams to address problems down the road. How many bad decisions have the Toronto Blue Jays, Chicago Cubs, and San Francisco Giants made because their hands were forced due to the long-term, lucrative deals they gave players in the past creating a win-now situation or settling for less because too many resources were already tied up. How often have teams that should be stripped down to rebuild toiled in mediocrity because it didn't make sense to look at the future with a huge contract or two on the payroll? The Jays were forced to unload Alex Rios (another bad contract in hindsight (although it didn't make Andrecheck's list) but defensible at the time) and Roy Halladay for literally nothing and very little, and to compound the problem they did so too late. The Cubs are forced into spending more because of a win-now strategy to justify their payroll which just leads to more bad decisions (Milton Bradley after 2008 but since traded for Silva). The Giants kept Barry Zito in their rotation longer than he deserved to be, although that eventually paid off. So another common denominator is that teams are often stuck playing overpaid players because they don't understand the concept of sunk costs. Which brings me to a final point: the issue in baseball's competitiveness is not revenues but how wisely those revenues are spent. You'll notice that the Boston Red Sox, New York Yankees, Philadelphia Phillies, Colorado Rockies, and Tampa Bay Rays do not have players on the list. They are well-run teams. But the Los Angeles Dodgers and Chicago Cubs do have players on the list (or have players on the list who they were forced to move); it is no surprise that the Cubs and Giants each have two players on the list. More than a lack of revenue, a lack of intelligence dooms teams.

2. Jayson Stark of ESPN.com has his LVP -- the least valuable player -- of the decade and its Juan Gonzalez. He was paid nearly $50 million over six seasons and produced very little. He built up expectations and never met them. He played until vesting pay days came in and then rode the pine with various injuries. He is a deserving winner (if that term is appropriate). The top 10 -- or is it bottom 10 -- are pretty clearly among the worst players of the decade in terms of value provided to their team, with one exception. Milton Bradley, despite having one of the worst contracts in baseball right now (see above), is still a useful player when healthy and playing and he produced a tremendous line in his 2008 season. I take exception with Bradley's inclusion, although off hand it is hard to come up with a replacement? Eric Chavez, the perpetually injured third baseman of the Oakland A's who might be one of the 30 or 40 best players for the first half of the decade but who produced nothing since due to a series of injuries. Or his team-mate shortstop Bobby Crosby, who never came close to fulfilling his potential. Or Alex Rios or Vernon Wells who both signed huge contracts after career years only to peter out almost immediately and go into steady decline for three consecutive seasons. Any of those players are more worthy of inclusion among the LVPs than Milton Bradley. It is difficult to make this list because there are very few truly bad players that can sustain a career for enough time to be considered for such a dubious distinction.

1. Rob Neyer has the 100 best players of the decade and I'll quibble with two placements in the top 25: Mariano Rivera warrants placement higher than 24 even if he only pitched 713 innings in the 2000s -- he was by far the most dominant player at his position and he is the only player to dominate in his position from the start to finish of the decade -- and I'd put Manny Ramirez higher than 13. There is so much more to say, but I won't. At least for now. But if you followed baseball in the 2000s, read the list.
posted by Paul Tuns at 10:00 AM

 
'Islam is bilingualism on steroids'
Or, One side of the immigration debate

Mark Steyn has an excellent post at The Corner on the slow-motion 9/11 that is mass immigration and voluntarily becoming multicultural, especially when one of those cultures is Islam. I'm torn about immigration: I worry about radically changing the culture but I also think that restrictions on the free movement of people is too much government. Immigration, more than the decriminalization of drugs, is the issue that most divides me along my own personal libertarian and conservative sides. Even on immigration, I lean toward the libertarian side but I find the argument Steyn makes very compelling:

Derb's pessimistic post (even by his own impressive standards) concludes as follows:

The mass immigration of Muslims, in particular, seems like a really bad idea.

I've been mulling this one ever since Jonah got into a bit of back-and-forth in the wake of Fort Hood as to whether Islam itself is the problem.

Years ago, apropos a Spanish-language payphone in Vermont, I said I couldn't understand why any country would voluntarily become bilingual. If you happen to find yourself in one for historic reasons, you make the best of it. I like anglophones and I like francophones but, if I were designing a jurisdiction from scratch, I wouldn't include large numbers of both on the same patch of land. Not because they'll be killing each other but because it's a significant impediment to civic cohesion - because, for most people, it will mean you can't share the same jokes, the same cultural allusions. In Quebec, they used to call it the "two solitudes" - which is a good way of putting it: parallel societies.

Islam is bilingualism on steroids. When the community reaches the size it's now at in Yorkshire or Malmo or Rotterdam, it has the ability to self-segregate and you wind up on the road to "two solitudes", parallel societies. (That partially explains the second- and third-generation disassimilation Derb references.) For example, we think of Amsterdam-to-Detroit as a flight between two western cities. But if you're Muslim it's a flight between two outlying provinces of the dar al Islam - the fast Islamifying Amsterdam and Dearborn, Michigan.

As I said, if you happen to find yourself in a bilingual society (which, as in Canada, is really two unilingual societies), you make the best of it. But I cannot see why any society would choose to become bilingual. Likewise, if you're in Nigeria or southern Thailand or Kashmir, you make the best of it. But I can't understand why any society would lightly volunteer to become semi-Muslim - which is what in effect Britain, France, Belgium, the Netherlands, Germany et al have done. And, once you've done so, like Derb says, what's the answer?

I have no idea what the answer is. Multiculturalism challenges many of our liberal ideals, including, ironically, tolerance. (It's funny how living with (bumping into) people of other cultures often challenges the goodwill we feel for others.) But what happens when some of our traditional cherished freedoms or ideals of justice come into conflict with the practices of others -- for example equality of the sexes and traditional Islamic views on women or freedom of speech and a worldview that brooks no dissent.

All the questions and doubts about immigration are magnified when the imported culture is Islam. So the vital question remains: what to do when a society becomes semi-Muslim. The answer is unclear probably because there is nothing that can be done or the possibilities are unthinkable in a liberal, democratic society. So those discussions need to take place before the transformation takes place. But the political correctness with its denialism and charges of racism prevents that from occurring.

Simply because there are no easy answers and the discussion might be unpleasant is no reason to pretend the challenges we face do not exist.
posted by Paul Tuns at 8:29 AM

 
In defense of living online

Be warned that this is a little rant against those who complain about people who live "virtually" through electronic media. I was going to entitle this post "To each his own" but I think the live-and-let-live philosophy is insufficient in challenging the anti-online living bias to which many people fall prey.

The Wall Street Journal has an article on living life offline. The headline offers more promise than author Kevin Helliker delivers because he doesn't actually say that much. He regurgitates some numbers about the growing number of people online (about 80% of adults) and how it is difficult to remain offline and function in society (although it is possible).

There really wasn't much in Hellicker's piece about living without the internet and email. I suppose it can be done but I am not interested in doing so and I think I would find such a person uninteresting, or at least having very little in common. What I find increasingly annoying are those people who complain about those who live online. Most often the complaint is directed not at those who compulsively check email at home or entertain themselves for hours with the plethora of movies, music and the other miscellany the 'net has to offer, but those who are on their BlackBerries and iPhones and other mobile devices. Helliker insinuates such a criticism (at himself) in his essay:

On the morning of Christmas Eve last week, I arrived at my gym — usually open at 5 a.m. — at 7:40, only to find that the holiday had delayed its opening to 8 a.m. Four of us stood there in a vestibule, listening to a frosty wind blow outdoors. The moment seemed perfect for holiday banter—how virtuous we were to be squeezing in a workout, how virtue would utterly disappear in the festive hours ahead. But one fellow pulled out his BlackBerry, and as if on cue, the rest of us did the same. For 20 minutes we read or sent emails and spoke nary a word to each other.

I'm not sure what is wrong with this picture. I don't have a BlackBerry nor do I want one. But the animus against their users seems ridiculous and selfish. Yes, selfish. The complaint is usually that they are being anti-social. That's nonsense. The problem the complainer has is that the person using the BlackBerry is being social with someone else; they are huffy that the person is communicating with someone who is not sharing their geographical proximity. Really the complainer is taking the view that the world should revolve around them. If someone else wants to be social with people using mobile technology -- using technology to overcome geography (proximity) -- they are viewed as anti-social. To me, the complainer is the anti-social person by imposing non-essential ways of behaving that privileges those with whom we have face-to-face encounters. Conversation is fine, but the face-to-face is a millennia old medium that can and should be overcome. The online world allows us to do that.

In the excerpt above, Hellicker seems to have a problem with the fact that four people were communicating (that is, after all, what email and texting is) with others rather than each other; but I see no reason for favouring those around you. In fact, superficial banter among strangers is fairly useless kind of socializing and I'm not sure why anyone would defend it. If you take the bigger picture, those four people were each likely connecting with several others online, therefore increasing the stock of socializing; instead of four people trading useless banter, perhaps as many as a dozen people were communicating (electronically) data of various importance.

Helliker notes that his brother Keith lives offline and claims Keith`s life is richer for it because he knows people:

His contacts are so diverse in large part because he's offline. At age 52, he's never sent an email, surfed the Web or bought anything online. With no BlackBerry to distract him in the grocery line, he's likely to make a friend or two before checking out. With no Web page to instruct him on his latest project—how to grind sausage or build a cow fence or install a wood-burning stove—he seeks out the help and advice of neighbors who have done it, and during beer-drinking sessions afterward he listens carefully to their talk of health problems, banking habits and new-car purchases.

But all of this is possible in the online world -- with more people and more varied people. Instead of being forced to talk to the people nearest you (neighbours or the next person in line) the online world is almost limitless, transcending not just a neighbourhood or a particular store, but national boundaries. I know more people because of the internet. I have met many of them in person -- most of whom I would never have known were it not for the internet. I also keep in touch with marginal acquaintances more easily and more often because of the web. While watching TV each evening, he uses both his laptop and BlackBerry and might communicate with a half dozen people on and off for the entire evening. He is both with us (his family) and his friends. That seems like having both ways -- and why not?

All I`m saying is two things: 1) the online world offers many opportunities to socialize that the "real" world does not and 2) the traditional "technology" of face-to-face conversation limits our socializing to those in our immediate vicinity and that it shouldn`t be privileged. You can send you (Luddite) complaints to paul_tuns(at)yahoo.com.
posted by Paul Tuns at 1:21 AM

 
Gaza Freedom March in Toronto

Blazing Cat Fur has photos of the protest and counter-demonstration. And there's part II, entitled Enter the Crazies. None of what BCF shows is surprising, but it is a shame that the daily newspapers and broadcast media won't show what these protesters actually standing for (communism, terrorism, barbarism). For me, Gaza Freedom March should mean liberating Palestinians from their current, terrorism-supporting leadership; for the demonstrators, it means advancing trendy, 'progressive' causes.
posted by Paul Tuns at 1:56 AM

 
20 things that happen in a minute

Interesting graphic at Imgur.com that should go under the headline "20 things that happen every minute." I'm sure that the fact that an American IT worker makes 13 cents a minute while Indian IT workers make 2.5 cents a minute is supposed to point to some injustice, however I see two other things: 1) American workers are more productive than Indian workers and 2) the Indian IT workers should be glad they are not Vietnamese Nike factory workers who make 0.14 cents per minute. Of course, the Vietnamese Nike factory worker has it better than most other Vietnamese citizens.

Other facts: Oprah makes $523 a minute and 250 babies are born every minute, nearly half of them in poverty. Here's my problem with the graphic: the facts presented have nothing to do with each other. Seeing them in the same visual doesn't make them related.
posted by Paul Tuns at 9:07 PM

 
Four and down (quick impressions from the weekend)

4. Pittsburgh Steelers pull off a narrow win over the Baltimore Orioles. Two takeaways from that game: Steelers played very good defense, but relied on a combination of Baltimore penalties and a remarkable 97-yard drive at the end of the first half engineered by Ben Roethlisberger. Also, Mike Tomlin missed a chance to challenge a Baltimore touchdown when the receiver was down by contact a yard short of score. Anyway, the Steelers won and their playoff hopes are still alive. They are one of five teams with an 8-7 record going into the final week; those five teams -- Pittsburgh, Baltimore, Denver Broncos, New York Jets and Houston Texans -- are chasing two wild card spots.

3. It would have been better for the Steelers had the Indianapolis Colts beat the New York Jets, but Indy didn't go after a perfect season and pulled Peyton Manning in the second half with a 15-10 lead. Jets scored 18 unanswered points in the third and fourth quarters for the 29-15 win. A Jets victory next week against the Cincinnati Bengals and they are in the playoffs. I have mixed feelings about not just going for a perfect 16-0, but teams playing meaningless games in weeks 16 and 17. Integrity of schedule and all that versus winning the right to take the foot of the pedal at the end of the season. This game (and others) speak against an 18 game schedule that will have even more meaningless games. Here's a prediction based on superstition not analysis: the Indianapolis Colts will not make it the Super Bowl after having effectively thrown this game. San Diego Charger and a wild card team (Steelers? Ravens?) will be the two favourites for the AFC championship. The Football Gods will not look favourably upon them after what they pulled this week, monkeying with many playoff hopefuls.

2. Again, this is all about the Pittsburgh Steelers. If the Houston Texans lost to the Miami Dolphins, the Texans would be out of the playoff hunt and the winner of next week's contest in south Florida between the Fins and Steelers would almost be a win-and-in game for the wild card. That would favour the Steelers because they need to win no matter what next week, but now they need Houston to lose to the New England Patriots who are probably not playing a meaningful game (they won their division but can't get a first-round bye). Texans got ahead of the Fins 24-0 and almost blew it, eking out a 27-24 lead. Houston is 8-7 and if they lose next Sunday will have their third consecutive 8-8 season.

1. I was flipping back and forth between the Indy-Jets game and the Denver Broncos-Philadelphia Eagles contest during the second set of games (4 or 4:15 starts). I wanted to see the Colts go to 15-0, but more importantly was waiting for the final whistle to see the Jets and Broncs lose (it's all about Pittsburgh's playoff chances). The Eagles game had its plays and Donovan McNabb has his moments of brilliance (322 yards, three TDs), but I mostly found this game boring. That Eagles didn't have the ton of exciting big plays they seem to typically turn every week and the Broncs are a dull-as-dirt team. Kyle Orton is very ... efficient. Efficient means effectively boring. Still, it ended with the right result: 30-27 for Philly on a field goal in the final seconds. Broncs fall back into the 8-7 crowd, but they have an easy game at home against the Kansas City Chiefs. Unless you believe in fate: the Denver Broncos can't finish off a season. Lots of teams are praying to the football goods this week.
posted by Paul Tuns at 8:24 PM

 
The guns and butter presidency of Bush II

Last week, Chris Edwards at Cato had a post with graphs at Cato@Liberty that showed the spending increases of every president since Dwight Eisenhower (excluding Barack Obama). Measured by total spending or total spending minus interest payments, George W. Bush and Lyndon B. Johnson rate the worst. Once you take out defense and interest payments, Bush is the worse since the last Keynesian president Richard M. Nixon. It is surprising how similar Bush II and Johnson II are. Of course, the current occupant of the White House will be far worse than either, although as Edwards says, "[Bush] set the stage for the explosive spending growth we are seeing under President Obama." It might have been difficult for Obama to do what he has done if some semblance of fiscal sanity was maintained in the 2000s.
posted by Paul Tuns at 9:08 AM

 
Why Christmas

























But there will be no gloom for her that was in anguish. In the former time he brought into contempt the land of Zebulun and the land of Naphtali, but in the latter time he will make glorious the way of the sea, the land beyond the Jordan, Galilee of the nations. The people who walked in darkness have seen a great light; those who dwelt in a land of deep darkness, on them has light shined. Thou hast multiplied the nation, thou hast increased its joy; they rejoice before Thee as with joy at the harvest, as men rejoice when they divide the spoil. For the yoke of His burden, and the staff for His shoulder, the rod of His oppressor, thou hast broken as on the day of Midian. For every boot of the tramping warrior in battle tumult and every garment rolled in blood will be burned as fuel for the fire. For to us a Child is born, to us a Son is given; and the government will be upon His shoulder, and His name will be called "Wonderful Counselor, Mighty God, Everlasting Father, Prince of Peace."

-- Isaiah 9:1-6


In those days a decree went out from Caesar Augustus that all the world should be enrolled. This was the first enrollment, when Quirini-us was governor of Syria. And all went to be enrolled, each to his own city. And Joseph also went up from Galilee, from the city of Nazareth, to Judea, to the city of David, which is called Bethlehem, because he was of the house and lineage of David, to be enrolled with Mary, his betrothed, who was with Child. And while they were there, the time came for her to be delivered. And she gave birth to her first-born Son and wrapped Him in swaddling cloths, and laid Him in a manger, because there was no place for them in the inn.

And in that region there were shepherds out in the field, keeping watch over their flock by night. And an angel of the Lord appeared to them, and the glory of the Lord shone around them, and they were filled with fear. And the angel said to them, "Be not afraid; for behold, I bring you good news of a great joy which will come to all the people; for to you is born this day in the city of David a Savior, who is Christ the Lord. And this will be a sign for you: you will find a babe wrapped in swaddling cloths and lying in a manger." And suddenly there was with the angel a multitude of the heavenly host praising God and saying, "Glory to God in the highest, and on earth peace among men with whom He is pleased!"

-- Luke 2:1-14
posted by Paul Tuns at 11:07 AM

 
Christmas Stuff

1. Gerry Nicholls intstructs everyone on how to have an eco-Christmas. New Christmas poem: `Twas the night before Christmas and all through the house not a creature was stirring, except for David Suzuki, who was snooping about looking for illegal beer fridges.`

2. Celtic Woman performing as about a perfect piece of music as there is, Bach`s Jesu Joy of Man's Desiring.



3. Don`t buy gift cards.

4. Fairytale in New York by The Pogues.



5. The science of Santa Claus.

6. Part one of Merry Christmas Mr. Bean.



7. A few years ago Tyler Cowen noted that experiences make better presents than possession. Worth noting again although the original links no longer work.

8. Here`s a trailer for one of the worst movies of all time (Santa`s Slay) but the opening scene is go bad it`s good (not family friendly).



9. Dr. Roy has two excellent Christmas themed posts: one on charity, another with Mahalia Jackson singing various Christmas songs. Related to his first post, give to Kiva because you don`t need anything as much as people in the developing world need private enterprise to thrive.

10. 6. X-Mas Origins -- a trailer for Tim Allen`s Santa Claus if Santa Claus were to become part of the X-Men. It is as good as it sounds; it`s extremely well done.


posted by Paul Tuns at 11:05 AM

 
Santa's kind of a douche

Robin Hanson on Santa Claus:

Clearly Santa is one very powerful dude; the whole world pretty much hangs on his choice. So what does Santa actually do? He gives toys to billions of children, mostly ignoring adults. He gives far more to rich kids than to poor kids, and he greatly favors cultures that celebrate his name over others. He mostly ignores his ability to sort people into naughty and nice; they are pretty much all labeled nice. (Have you ever even heard of a kid who got coal? Wouldn’t that make the news?)

So where does this put Santa on the naughty vs. nice spectrum? I’d say “mildly positive eccentric.” Yes he is clearly far less naughty than he could be, but he is also far less nice than possible. He uses his abilities to help others, and his attention is admirably global. But he helps far less than he could, he chooses his own rather odd way to help, and he prefers to help high status folks who celebrate his eccentric contribution.

posted by Paul Tuns at 8:59 AM

 
Four and down (Best of the weekend)

4. New York Jets (7-7) at Indianapolis Colts (14-0): I don't know how the a Dallas Cowboys-Washington Redskins game doesn't make this list, especially with the craziness that is happening in Washington and Dallas fighting for a playoff spot. But there is more at stake in the game taking place in Indy. The Jets are an interesting team. They have the best defense in the NFL -- they have allowed the fewest yards per game (262.8), points per game (15.8) and offensive touchdowns (17) and have outscored their opponents 282-221, yet they are a 500 team. That's because of their rookie QB, Mark Sanchez, who throws a pick every 16.5 passes, the worst rate in the NFL in more than two decades. They are facing a team that may or may not be going for a perfect 16-0. This is a classic integrity of the schedule game because New York is still in the playoff picture, even if their chances are slim while the Colts have first place in the AFC wrapped up for Christmas. The Colts play a nearly perfect game and if they are playing it meaningfully, it will be fun to watch what Peyton Manning (who needs just 159 yards to become the fourth quarterback in NFL history to reach 50,000) and his collection of receivers can do against the Jets defense. The Colts defense isn't too shabby itself so Sanchez has his work cut out for him. If they are trying, Colts by 14 in a game harder fought than the double digit win would indicate. If the Colts rest players, they pull out a closer victory. I predict the Colts get the lead and protect their best players in the fourth quarter.

3. Denver Broncos (8-6) at Philadelphia Eagles (10-4): Probably no game has bigger playoff implications. Denver will be assured of a playoff spot with a victory and Philly will have a chance at both the NFC East division title and (with help) a first round bye. Philly has been hot lately but they were facing poor pass defense teams. Broncs have the second best pass defense. The Eagles have a ridiculous number of big plays -- they have 20 passes of 40 yards or more while the Dallas Cowboys are second with 15, and 14 teams have 11 or fewer -- but might not be able to pull that kind of rabbit out of their hat facing Denver`s superior secondary. Therefore, a lot is being made of the return of RB Jake Westbrook, but halfback LeSean McCoy and fullback Leonard Weaver have been very good in Westbrook's absence. The Eagles offense is explosive in every element including kick and punt returns, so all it takes is a Broncos mistake and Philly changes the complexion of the game radically. Philly should win by a touchdown in a hard-fought and exciting game.

2. San Diego Chargers (11-3) at Tennessee Titans (7-7): Titans are 7-1 since replacing QB Kerry Collins with Vince Young in late October. RB Chris Johnson is going for the all-time rushing yards record. (Relatedly, Titans are the second best running team, the Bolts last.) Tennessee has a slim chance of making the playoffs but they are trying to put together a respectable season after starting 0-6 the season one year removed from the season that they started 10-0. But the Chargers have won nine in a row and 17 consecutive games in December. Bolts have outscored opponents 389-283 while Titans are running a deficit. San Diego relies on the air game, led by QB Philip Rivers who has 18 consecutive games with a passer rating of 80 or better; only quarterback to go an entire season with a passer rating of 80 or better? Steve Young in 1992. The game should be close but I really can`t see San Diego losing this one despite the fact that Las Vegas is favouring Tenny by three.

1. Baltimore Ravens (8-6) at Pittsburgh Steelers (7-7): Pittsburgh has almost no chance of making the playoffs, so this is a must-win game (with lots of help over the next two weeks including at least one loss for the six other 7-7 teams and a pair of defeats for Denver). Baltimore punches a playoff ticket with a victory. These two teams hate each other, play physical football even if it isn't as intense as it has been in recent years, and Pittsburgh is looking to avenge a close 20-17 loss from last month. Ben Roethlisberger can`t be expected to pass for 500 yards again. Joe Flacco has been solid and is unflappable for the Ravens, but he can be stopped by the Steelers defense. Steelers can`t count on a two-minute drill to defeat a stout defense so they better be careful about coughing up a fourth division lead. Pittsburgh has greater sense of urgency and pull out the win.
posted by Paul Tuns at 8:32 AM

 
The dynamism of the market

Love this graphic at the Wall Street Journal which shows the 25 largest companies by market capitalization today and ten years ago. Just eight of the biggest companies in 2009 are on the list today. In 1999, just six of the 25 were non-US companies and three of them were Japanese; today 11 of 25 are foreign companies, including one from Brazil and four from China (and none from Japan).

Oracle is no longer on the list, but Apple is. Time Warner is not on the list, but Google is. AT&T Inc. and AT&T Corp. are no longer on the list, but China Mobile is. Coca Cola is off; Nestle is on. General Electric is still among the 25 largest companies in the world, but its market capitalization fell from $507.2 billion to $168.1 billion.

Companies that no longer make the S&P 500 that did so in 1999: Times Mirror, Tribune Co., AT&T, Anheuser-Busch, Coors, Bear Stearns, Seagram, Circuit City, Enron, Dow Jones, Lehman Brothers, World Com, Wachovia, Wyeth, Unocal, Nortel, Merril Lynch, Lucent, Enron, Compaq, Bank One, Reebok.
posted by Paul Tuns at 11:21 PM

 
Four and down (stats edition)

4. "The [New Orleans] Saints have allowed 400+ [yards] five times this year. The last four Super Bowl champs allowed just three 400-plus games between them in 64 regular season outings." (Cold Hard Football Facts Power Rankings)

3. Ben Roethlisberger threw for 503 yards on Saturday, only the tenth time in NFL history that a quarterback has thrown for 500 yards. Interestingly, only half the time a QB throws for 500 yards does his team win the game. That is surprising, but perhaps that is because seven of the ten games saw the quarterback also threw at least three picks; none of the winning QBs had an interception. (Cold Hard Football Facts week 15 review)

2. You want to know why the Indianapolis Colts are winning: "The Colts' offensive line has allowed the fewest sacks in the league, and also allowed the fewest quarterback hits." (Gregg Easterbrook's TMQ column at ESPN)

1. A tale of two Peterson's: Adrian Peterson in career day games: 104.8 yards per game, 5.28 yards per carry. Career night games: 70.7 yards per game, 3.37 yards per carry. Minnesota Vikings no doubt are hoping that the NFL keeps them off the prime time television schedule next year. (Andy Benoit at the New York Times Fifth Down blog)
posted by Paul Tuns at 11:02 PM

 
Three and out

3. A popular meme this year is that there is a glut of closers. Hogwash. There are maybe a half dozen legit closers in all of all baseball so by definition there is always a shortage of them on the market. However, there are plenty of relievers who have accumulated saves that are available for hire. Rob Neyer explains the difference and why it is folly for teams to spend too much money on someone who doesn't deserve the closer lable: "Mariano Rivera is a closer. So is Joe Nathan, and Francisco Cordero, and Jonathan Papelbon. A few others, for sure. But most "closers" have that label simply because some manager decided that this pretty good reliever had more guts than that pretty good reliever. It's foolish for teams to spend millions of extra dollars because some manager had a gut feeling about somebody else's guts."

2. Joe Posnanski makes the case for Tim Raines belonging in the Hall of Fame. It is shameful that Raines is not already enshrined in Cooperstown. After Rickey Henderson, Raines is the second best leadoff hitter of all time. All his numbers were impressive. He deserves a plaque in the Hall much more than does last year's enshrinee, Jim Rice.

1. The big deal: the New York Yankees trade OF Melky Cabrera, low minor league pitcher Arodys Vizcanio and minor league LHP Mike Dunn to the Atlanta Braves for starting pitcher Javier Vazquez and LOOGY Boone Logan. The initial, ill-informed reaction is that the Yanks fleeced the Braves. In fact, the deal is a very good move for both teams. The Yankees gave up a 25-year-old outfielder who is very slightly below average in the field and league average at the plate who flashes some upside (he might hit with some power as his career progresses). Cabrera is an experienced young player, but he is probably nothing more than a pretty good fourth outfielder which is what he was going to be for the Yanks and likely will be for the Braves. The move leaves New York without a fourth outfielder and a sub-standard leftfielder (Brett Gardner), so there is probably another move in the cards for the Yankees beyond signing 1B/DH Nick Johnson. I won't get into Logan and Dunn. The keys to this deal are Vazquez and Vizcanio. The Braves acquired an outfielder and a young pitcher a few years away from the Majors, but the prospect has tremendous upside. He embarrassed his low-A ball opponents with his impressive mid-90s fastball and superior curve. Yet, there is no guarantee that he would continue to develop, the Yanks have a spotty record developing such talent, and he is probably 2-3 years away from starting. However, Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus rates him the second best prospect in the Yankees organization and projects him as a likely All Star. The Braves traded one of six starters to get a usable outfielder and excellent prospect, and they saved some money (all told probably about $8 million after Cabrera's arbitration award). They probably could have gotten more and should have acquired a corner outfielder to make an impact in 2010, but they obviously have other plans. That other plan might be competing down the road or flipping Cabrera or others for a power-hitting corner fielder. We'll have to wait and see. The Yankees acquired one of the 10 best pitchers in the National League in 2009. While he has good years and bad years, his peripheral numbers indicate a reliably good pitcher even in most relatively downish years. He had 9.77 Ks/9 IP and just 1.81 BBs/9 IP, for a better than 5:1 strikeout to walk ratio. He is also a reliable 200+ innings (reaching that level in nine of the past ten games -- the only time he wasn't was in 2004 in his first tour with the Yankees when he threw 198 innings). He had a career best 2.87 ERA, although in four of the past nine seasons he has had an ERA in the fours, including 4.91 in that season with the Yanks. But even 200 innings of average pitching is tremendously valuable to the Yanks. They are committed to him for only one season and he will drive either Joba Chamberlain or Phil Hughes back to the bullpen which is not a bad thing. This is a major improvement for the Yanks entire pitching staff but they have to find a decentish outfielder for the bench.
posted by Paul Tuns at 10:40 PM

 
Let's keep government out of the Christmas trees of the nation

I hate this quote. Absolutely hate it.

We'll get this passed before Christmas and it will be one of the best Christmas presents this Congress has ever given the American people.

That's Senator Tom Harkin (D, Iowa), quoted in the London Times. Is government really supposed to be in the business of giving Christmas presents to the American people.

And isn't it supposed to be "holiday presents"?
posted by Paul Tuns at 8:46 AM

 
Someone should call world leaders out on this

This is a little dated (December 7), but it was too good of an article to pass up. It appeared at Secrets of Vancouver and its about the hypocrisy of 15,000 delegates heading to Copenhagen, many on private planes, to talk about what can be done regarding climate change. This paragraph is important:

Instead of swift and modest reductions in carbon – say, two per cent a year, starting next year – for which they could possibly be held accountable, the politicians will bandy around grandiose targets of 80-per-cent-plus by 2050, by which time few of the leaders at Copenhagen will even be alive, let alone still in office.

posted by Paul Tuns at 8:40 AM

 
Apparently the Tories didn't invent this particular form of favouritism

From a Mercatus Center study on stimulus spending:

On average, Democratic districts received 1.6 times more awards than Republican ones.... Democratic districts also received 1.89 times more stimulus dollars than Republican districts. The average dollars awarded per Republican district is $232,047,857, while the average dollars awarded per Democratic district is $439,200,100. In total, Democratic districts received 73.47 percent of the total stimulus funds awarded.

posted by Paul Tuns at 12:39 AM

 
The only thing that prevents this from being a musical abortion is Mick Jagger

I like U2 and don't mind Fergie but c'mon man, Gimme Shelter is The Rolling Stones. This is one heckuva rusty coathanger performance:



Fergie wrecks it. It might have been fine if it was Mick and U2, but Fergie isn't singing the song, she's yelling it, and she's too animated and trying to out-perform Mick Jagger. It just doesn't compare to the Stones with Lisa Fischer:


posted by Paul Tuns at 12:11 AM

 
Defending drive-throughs

Greg Beato at Reason looks at the drive-through economy -- and raises the interesting question about why is it limited only to fast food? -- and I found these paragraphs particularly interesting (although the whole article is worth reading):

Not everyone shares this dream. In 2000 Wendy’s led the industry in speediness, taking an average of only 150.3 seconds to serve customers at its drive-through window. By 2008 it had reduced its average serving time to 131 seconds. But that’s still 131 seconds during which drivers are idling wastefully. According to Sierra Club estimates, people waiting at fast food restaurants burn about 50 million gallons of gasoline a year. At the U.S. national average of $2.67 per gallon (as of October 26, 2009), that’s $133.5 million, or 27,300,613 Baconators, which, at 830 calories per Baconator, could feed exactly 35,273 100-pound supermodels every day for a year.

Actually, in the big scheme of things, 50 million gallons of gas isn’t all that much. In fact, it’s less than 0.03 percent of the 140 billion gallons of gas we use each year. And there are drive-through advocates who claim drive-throughs are, relatively speaking, the environmentally correct way to go. In 2008, for example, the Canadian coffee and donut chain Tim Hortons commissioned an engineering consulting firm called RWDI to compare the environmental impact of its drive-through outlets to that of its outlets without drive-throughs. Based on traffic surveys conducted at four stores during peak hours, RWDI concluded that the outlets without drive-throughs produced 40 percent to 70 percent more smog pollutants and carbon monoxide and 10 percent to 30 percent more greenhouse gases than the ones that had them. The difference was due to idling that occurs in the parking lot as drivers hunt and wait for spaces, the extra distance traveled during this process, and the extra engine start-up after customers complete their transactions and return to their vehicles.

posted by Paul Tuns at 11:58 PM

 
Suicide and assisted suicide

Peter Stockland has a very, very, very good piece on euthanasia and physician-assisted suicide at the National Post website. He raises a point that is under-examined: how can society seek to protect the emotionally troubled from their own desire to off themselves while at the same time providing the means for physically troubled patients to kill themselves? The key 'graph:

Think of it as internal coherence: How could a civilized society put up fences on its high bridges to prevent suicide, yet lower the bed railings of its hospitals to permit the same act? Suicide is suicide, whether it's the assisted or do-it-yourself variety. Euthanasia is a euphemism. Both actions are the forced (emotionally, if not outright physically) and premature ending of a human life. All argument to the contrary is dangerous misdirection.

If we go in the direction of making our hospitals and medical centres charnel houses of self-destruction, how soon before we begin debating whether the moral, social or even existential difference between a private jab and a public jump is merely a matter of time, place and taste?

posted by Paul Tuns at 11:41 PM

 
Four and down

4. The return of Any Given Sunday. The Oakland Raiders edge the Denver Broncos 20-19 -- in Denver. Carolina Panthers move within two games of 500 by smashing the 12-1Minnesota Vikings 26-7. The Detroit Lions keep it close against the NFC West-leading Arizona Cardinals and the St. Louis Rams worried the Houston Texans before finally bowing out. Recall all that crap about the end of parity football pundits were spewing just a month or so ago?

3. Video of the finishing my favourite (perfectly timed) drive of the year in the Pittsburgh Steelers 37-36 victory over the Green Bay Packers. Ben Roethlisberger throws for 503 yards. The game was incredibly exciting, perhaps the most thrilling game of the season. And everyone who thinks Mike Tomlin made the wrong call with the on-side kick, read this from NFL Advanced Stats: it increased the chances of winning because 60% of unexpected on-side kicks are recovered by the kicking team and ... just read it. The math is easy to follow. Plus, the Steelers defense has coughed up too many fourth quarter leads. Even if the Packers get the kick and score, there will be more time on the clock for the Steelers to come back. And, oh yeah, the Steelers won.

2. The New York Giants just beat the Washington Redskins 45-12 in DC. The stats don't tell half the story. The Skins were embarrassing. Their O-line didn't look like they were even playing and New York's defense were all over the Washington quarterbacks; Jason Campbell left the game because he was so knocked around but he convinced coach Jim Zorn to let him back in. It helped marginally -- they scored a pair of meaningless, second-half majors -- but the Skins were bafflingly bad and when I find video of the first-half ending play I'll put if up. It defies description or comprehension and none of the three Monday Night Football broadcasters had ever witnessed anything like it before or could explain what it was or why it was called. Admittedly, the O-line is hurt but it was worse than that. For the first half it looked like an NFL team playing a high school team. Washington's off-field dysfunction is being replicated on the field. It was ugly. One meme of the broadcasters was that fans began leaving before the half-time and traffic gridlock began in the third quarter.

1. Why you don't show up at a football game after a snow storm wearing the visiting team's jerseys. Especially in Philadelphia.


posted by Paul Tuns at 11:37 PM

 
City with quarter million people to soon have no bookstore

The Associated Press reports that Laredo, Texas, with a population of just under 250,000, is soon to have no bookstore as the B. Dalton shop is scheduled to close in mid-January. I find it hard to believe a city of that size doesn't have any store that sells books and yet I have difficulty mustering up the concern or outrage such a story is surely meant to inspire. I found these lines interesting:

The situation is so grim that schoolchildren have pleaded for a reprieve from next month's planned shutdown of the B. Dalton bookstore. After that, the nearest store will be 150 miles away in San Antonio.

The B. Dalton store was never a community destination with comfy couches and an espresso bar, but its closing will create a literary void in a city with a high illiteracy rate. Industry analysts and book associations could not name a larger American city without a single bookseller.

There is, of course, Amazon.com for the literate and one presumes also a library or so (schools and public). I'm also not sure what help a bookstore is to a city where illiteracy is a problem and perhaps the problem of illiteracy contributes to the lack of interest in books.
posted by Paul Tuns at 11:30 PM

 
Weekend stuff

1. How can I not link to a list of the top 20 internet lists of 2009.

2. Globe and Mail columnist John Doyle has as a list of the 10 most irritating people on television in 2009. Gosselins rate number one, but Kate G. deserves that spot more than her ex-husband. Carrie Prejean and Michael Ignatieff warrant higher spots, too.

3. A neat picture from Manhattan after the snow storm this weekend.

4. Listverse has "10 Unique And Amazing Places on Earth." Most are amazing, indeed.

5. Forbes.com has "Three big myths of executive public speaking."

6. At Slate, Torie Bosch explains, "There are only three yuletide plotlines on television."

7. David Aaronovitch in the Wall Street Journal: "A Conspiracy-Theory Theory: How to fend off the people who insist they know the 'real story' behind everything."

8. Below is the first of two 10-minute videos of the 100 best quotes from The Wire (warning: spoilers/not safe for work). The second video is here (a second 100 quotes). Best two quotes from the series: a scene with McNulty and Bunk in which the only dialogue is the f-word (starting 20 seconds in) and any time Omar Little whistles The Farmer and the Dell.


posted by Paul Tuns at 11:26 PM

 
Four and down (Best of the weekend)

4. New York Giants (7-6) at Washington Redskins (4-9): NFC East games are always good so this one gets the edge over San Francisco 49ers at Philadelphia Eagles (the second most exciting team to watch after the New Orleans Saints because of the sheer number of big plays Philly makes) and the New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills (in a game featuring the two best post-Jerry Rice wideouts in Randy Moss and Terrell Owens). If I did this before Thursday's game, it would have been the Indianapolis Colts-Jacksonville Jaguars game. Still, this should be a good game. Skins want to stop Eli Manning and his team-mates from making the post-season and they've looked good in the past five weeks (two wins and three losses by three points or less); Washington allows the fourth-least yards per game. Giants are the better team but the Skins have played better football lately. That said, if G-Men can score like they did in their light-up-the-scoreboard loss against Philly last week, they'll win. But I don't think they will. Skins by three in what will be perceived to be a huge upset.

3. Cincinnati Bengals (9-4) at San Diego Chargers (10-3): A few weeks ago this might have been the most compelling game on the field with the winner clinching a playoff spot, but the death of Cincy WR Chris Henry is now the story here. It might motivate the Bengals to win-one-for-Chris or it might be a big distraction. Cincy has not been as impressive lately as their record would indicate. Travelling to the West coast, with bad losses in the past few weeks against the Minnesota Vikings and Oakland Raiders and averaging just 16.4 points per game against Quality Teams (teams with better than 500 records), the Bengals look to be in some trouble. They face a team on an eight-game winning streak and one of the three or four best QBs in the game in Philip Rivers. While Cincy has allowed the second fewest points, Bolts know how to get yards and score points. Chargers win by ten and clinch the second best record in the AFC.

2. Green Bay Packers (9-4) at Pittsburgh Steelers (6-7): Two of the three most storied teams in NFL history. Both teams have solid offenses and solid defenses. Packers are all but assured of at least a wild card with a road victory this week; the Steelers have a slight chance of playing deep into January, but they might be playing for honour now. Steelers even out their record with a narrow win. Normally I'd go with the Packers because they have the best passer rating differential (their QB rating versus opponents QB rating) but the Steelers aren't really a 6-7 team and they are playing at home.

1. Dallas Cowboys (8-5) at New Orleans Saints (13-0): The Saints are seeking to clinch first overall in the conference (can't do it tonight, but it is half of the equation) and are shooting for a perfect season (three more to go), the Cowboys are fighting for their playoff lives (two wins in their final three starts is probably all it will take) and hoping to overcome the December blues (you know how terrible they are after the calendar flips from November to December). Tony Romo gets most of the blame for the Dallas December doldrums but he has been pretty good the past two weeks. It's the usual complaint when they don't win: they have a balanced team but they don't use everyone in any given game. Run, 'Boys, run. Saints have Drew Brees who uses everyone and their neighbour and mother. I think Reggie Bush's ex-girlfriend has even caught a TD pass. Saints have had a couple difficult weeks and they are no longer winning by double digits. They needed overtime to beat the Washington Redskins two weeks ago and trailed the Atlanta Falcons for much of the game last week. New Orleans is always a tough place to pick up a road victory. It doesn't help Dallas that their best defensive player DeMarcus Ware is probably less than 100% after last week's scary injury against the San Diego Chargers. Saints go marching on with another narrow, come from behind victory.
posted by Paul Tuns at 7:57 PM

 
Keynes v. Hayek

Excellent nine-minute segment from PBS News Hour that includes a rap about John Maynard Keynes and F.A. Hayek by Billy Scafuri and Adam Lustick and a debate between Russell Roberts and Robert Skidelsky.


posted by Paul Tuns at 12:28 PM

 
Death by giant condom?

Actually, it's the exit bag, which looks like a giant condom. Alex Schadenberg has a post on Australia's Dr. Death, Philip Nitschke, and his weapon of choice. Alex also wrote about the exit bag for The Interim in September 2001 and the story includes a photo of Wesley Smith holding up an exit bag.
posted by Paul Tuns at 12:07 PM

 
GOP find perfect leader for party: Zombie Reagan

From Onion TV:


Zombie Reagan Raised From Grave To Lead GOP
posted by Paul Tuns at 10:10 AM

 
Elizabeth May, not ready for prime time

I have repeatedly said I don't consider Green Party leader Elizabeth May a real political candidate. When I watch her on the political stage I see someone who doesn't understand that federal politics is not high school student council. I wasn't there, but Rondi Adamson reports on May's performance at a recent Munk Debate and echos many of the same complaints I have. I liked this:

The saddest part was how she kept dropping names, trying to make herself sound important. She actually used, as an "argument," that she had met "the Minister for Poverty Alleviation from Lesotho" (yes, this is what she said) and that he apparently told her Lomborg was wrong! So there! Can you believe it? A completely juvenile argument -- anyone can say, "Well I met so-and-so, and they said you're wrong!"

Read Adamson's entire post.
posted by Paul Tuns at 8:58 AM

 
Progress

The Daily Telegraph reports:

"Mehmet Goren, the father of 15-year-old Muslim schoolgirl Tulay Goren, has been convicted of her murder in a family "honour killing" in London."

posted by Paul Tuns at 8:56 AM

 
Don't bet against Bayh

The American Spectator has a piece by RiShawn Biddle on how Indiana's faux-moderate senator, Evan Bayh, isn't a shoo-in for re-election in 2010. He has a gigantic war chest ($14 million 11 months before election day), good popularity numbers (two-thirds approval rating), and an unearned but solid reputation as a moderate. He may be supporting an unpopular bill (Obamacare) but it hasn't hurt him so far and it would have to hurt him a lot to see him taste defeat in November.
posted by Paul Tuns at 8:53 AM

 
Four and down

4. I'm tired of all the talk about whether teams should go for perfect. Arguments against: integrity of the remaining games, long rests might disrupt the winning spirit/momentum/whatever. Arguments for: players need rest, avoid injury, teams have won the right to do whatever the heck they want. Tonight the 13-0 Indianapolis Colts take on the improbable playoff contending 7-6 Jacksonville Jaguars. Jax holds the tie-breakers right now and would be the wild card team if the playoffs started today. Here's another argument for not going for perfect and giving the regulars a lot of rest tonight if you are Indy coach Jim Caldwell: there is a chance the Colts have to play the Jags in January when it counts so they shouldn't show their opponents their best stuff. In 2007, the New England Patriots played the New York Giants on the final day of the season and gave it everything they had. They won and were perfect on the season. But six weeks later in the Super Bowl when the two teams met again, the Giants knew what the Pats would do. I don't like the idea of Indy taking it easy the rest of the way, but there is a good reason to not play their starters for much of the game in order to improve their chances in the post-season against this particular opponent. By the way, I still think a game in which Indy backups are on the field for 60% of the time is game they are likely to win. Indy ekes out a four-point win over Jax.

3. What a great weekend of football this could be, with a lot of impact on the standings. In the AFC, the Denver Broncos (8-5) play host to the Oakland Raiders (4-9). Broncs should win and solidify, though not clinch, a wild card spot. That leaves seven teams with either a 7-6 or 6-7 record chasing the last playoff spot in the conference. Pittsburgh will have a tough time beating the Green Bay Packers -- at least they play at home -- so they'll likely fall behind the rest of the AFC pack and end any hope they had of defending their Super Bowl title. The Miami Dolphins (7-6) can all but put away the Tennessee Titans (6-7). The New York Jets (7-6) have a winnable game against the Atlanta Falcons (6-7). The Falcons need their own victory to have any chance in the NFC so they have a lot to play for. Jax can stay ahead of the pack with a win in Indy (see above), but I wouldn't bet on that. There is no such thing as a gimme in football, but the teams most likely to come out of the weekend with a win are the Baltimore Ravens (7-6) who are hosting the Chicago Bears (5-7) and the Houston Texans (7-6) who visit the lowly St. Louis Rams (1-12). The AFC playoff picture should effectively be clearer even if a few teams are still mathematically not eliminated, but there is an extremely unlikely possibility that one game could separate eight wild card contenders.

2. The NFC playoff picture features fewer serious contenders. The 9-4 Green Bay Packers have the wild card all but locked up and the 6-7 Atlanta Falcons and San Francisco 49ers need to win their final three and hope for a collapse by both the New York Giants (7-6) and Dallas Cowboys (8-5). You gotta figure its a race between the pair of NFC East teams. The Cowboys play the 13-0 New Orleans Saints at the Super Dome on Saturday so their path to the post-season is a lot harder. The G-Men face the Washington Redskins who in recent weeks have been a tougher opponent than they were in the first two months. Dallas has a larger margin of error but they also have that whole month of December thing to compete against.

1. While some people worry about the integrity of the games featuring teams that have wrapped up their playoff position and take the foot off the pedal down the stretch, there is very little discussion about a more troubling assault on the integrity of games: bottom feeders trying not to win in order to improve draft position. The number one pick is not really in question -- Nebraska defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh tops everyone's list as the most desirable player in the draft -- and the St. Louis Rams, Detroit Lions, Cleveland Browns, and Tampa Bay Buccaneers would all benefit from having him on their team. Are the same tie-breakers used to determine worse overall as playoff spots, just in reverse?
posted by Paul Tuns at 8:47 AM

 
Why you should ignore pollsters

A bigger problem with polls than most people realize is not that they are unrepresentative or biased -- although they are often that, too -- but the spin pollsters put on their own results. In many cases, pollsters jump to conclusions that are not supported by the data they are citing. Take for example, a recent Ipsos Reid poll on Canadian views of the military and the Afghan torture allegations. The press release says:

It appears that this issue is indeed of importance to most Canadians as just four in ten (38%) ‘agree’ (15% strongly/23% somewhat) that they personally don’t care if Canadian officials knowingly transferred Afghanistan prisoners to security forces who then may have tortured the prisoners. Conversely, a majority (62%) ‘disagrees’ (30% strongly/33% somewhat) that they ‘personally don’t care if Canadian officials or our military knowingly had transferred Afghanistan prisoners to Afghan security forces who then may have inflicted torture on these prisoners’.

Putting aside respondents providing the 'correct' answer to pollsters interviewing them for such surveys (which is not an insubstantial problem), there is a huge difference between thinking something is important and disagreeing with the statement that they don't personally care if Canadian officials were involved (directly or indirectly) with torture. A huge difference, in fact. And that 38% who don't care is pretty sizable.

The problem is that the unwarranted claims in the press release or post-poll interviews of polling company staffers get repeated by journalists too lazy or too stupid to understand what the polling data is really saying, if it is saying anything at all. It quickly becomes accepted fact and conventional wisdom. Pay attention to polls if you want, but ignore pollsters.
posted by Paul Tuns at 11:56 PM

 
Three and out

3. The Chicago White Sox sometimes baffle me. On the one hand they pick up J.J. Putz for next to nothing (one year, $3 million coming off an injury year) to bolster the bullpen with a guy who could legitimately close if they need him, especially if they trade Bobby Jenks for a much-needed outfielder. Then they acquire Juan Pierre, OBP sink hole. Tim Marchman suggest suicide for ChiSox fans. By the way, the ChiSox outfield could be nicknamed The Rejects: Pierre, Andruw Jones and Alex Rios. If this was four years ago, that would look like a pretty good outfield, but there have been fewer big busts over the past couple of years that those three. You could throw in Vernon Wells and a few pitchers such as Jason Schmidt and Barry Zito, but it would not be easy to field so many has-beens as the ChiSox will this year.

2. Rich Lederer at Baseball Analysts provides the case (again) for enshrining Bert Blyleven in Cooperstown. His vote trajectory is improving rapidly so there is hope that the injustice of keeping him Blyleven out can be corrected.

1. Writing at FanHouse.com, Jay Mariotti says that the Philadelphia Phillies should have traded for Roy Hallady and kept Cliff Lee. This is true in theory, but the Phillies are paying their players with monopoly money. They got a better pitcher and they'll have him for more years (four and perhaps five instead of one). That's coming out ahead. They also got to replenish their farm system a bit. And nothing precludes Philly from signing Lee when he becomes a free agent after the 2010 season.
posted by Paul Tuns at 11:36 PM

 
Midweek stuff

1. Slate answers the question on every body's mind (as stated by their teaser): "What's the environmental impact of cheese?"

2. Have gangs replaced the traveling circus? A graph from Indexed explains.

3. An oldie from Cracked.com: "6 Shows (Thankfully) Canceled After One Episode." Who green lit Who's Your Daddy, a show where an adopted woman tried to pick her father from a group of 25 men and win a dad and $100,000. Babylon Fields sounded like it failed on execution in having a show with zombies were the zombies aren't really part of the storyline (the first episode was shot but never aired).

4. Trailers from Hell does Welcome Home Brother Charles (NSF). HT: Five Feet of Fury who explains, it "really [is] a movie about a black guy who strangles villains with his giant penis."

5. Birth order is a fascinating topic. Of course birth order should affect certain traits but we ought to think about such things as likelihoods, not deterministic. Latest research on the topic, as reported by New Scientist, is that first-born children are more selfish.

6. It's hip to be square? The Wall Street Journal reports on efforts to make square dancing cool for young people.

7. This is one of the most amazing videos I have ever seen: a crimson-crested woodpecker battles a giant bird snake (or puffing snake) in a tree. It's even better than the octopus and coconut video, though just barely.


posted by Paul Tuns at 11:17 PM

 
Go home and be counted

Over in The Corner Mark Krikorian takes note of a National Association of Latino Elected and Appointed Officials advertisement about the census:

One of the Census Bureau's "partners" has produced a poster urging Hispanics (illegal aliens, really) to be counted next year, just as the Holy Family went to Bethlehem to be counted:

Of course, whoever dreamed up this poster missed a basic point. To be counted, every person not living in his ancestral town had to return there, as Joseph left Nazareth and headed south for Bethlehem. By the same token, one could suggest that illegal aliens should head south and return every one of them to his own city. Mexico, the home of most illegal aliens, is conducting its own census next year, after all.

Here's the poster:


posted by Paul Tuns at 12:49 PM

 
Climate change is natural

The Daily Express provides 100 reasons that explain why.
posted by Paul Tuns at 12:33 PM

 
Sweating the small stuff

I hate stories like this one: "OT drives up chauffeur tab" over $2 million. Again, the headline on the front page of the Toronto Sun was a bit misleading. The $2 million in overtime is spread among five years and three governments headed by two different parties and prime ministers. It also represents only half the departments that reported such items so the figure is probably double that. Double the reported $400,000 annually and you get $800K. But when you break down the numbers, it probably isn't very much. If the drivers didn't get time and half for the hours they worked past their seven hour day, the government would just hire more drivers: less overtime but more wages and overhead for the additional employees.

But I found this amusing:

Of the departments that revealed how much they've spent on ministerial driver overtime, the highest spending department was Environment Canada, which reported $204,445 in overtime since 2005/06. Conservatives Jim Prentice, John Baird, and Rona Ambrose served as environment ministers during that period, as well as Liberal Stephane Dion.

Of all the departments to have a driver waiting around for the minister, there is something delicious in having Environment Canada on top. Shouldn't the various hectoring ministers of green be using public transit?
posted by Paul Tuns at 9:00 AM

 
Watching Iggy

Elisabeth Eaves has Forbes.com column on America's North American neighbours and 2010 and she says to keep an eye on Canadian Liberal leader Michael Ignatieff:

Michael Ignatieff. After decades in Britain and the U.S., the professional intellectual returned to his native Canada and became head of the Liberal party. If a federal election is called in 2010, he could become the next prime minister, and the Canadian head of state with the biggest international profile since Pierre Trudeau.

A 2010 election is a big if. I hear that those scripting election scenarios for both the Tories and Grits are thinking more about 2011 than 2010. And if it is held in 2010, I wouldn't bet on the former Harvard professor becoming Canada's next prime minister. If anything, American readers of Forbes can keep an eye out for Ignatieff returning home after an election so he can return to his preferred salon and lecture life.
posted by Paul Tuns at 8:57 AM

 
The glass if half full

A RBC Economics Market Update on bankruptcy shows that things are never as simple as the headline ("Canadian bankruptcy filings drop substantially") might indicate:

Canadian consumer bankruptcies were down 28.4% in October from September’s level and also down 1.7% compared to October 2008. This marks the first year-over-year decline in consumer bankruptcy filings since May 2008, and the lowest monthly total (an annualized 105,792 total bankruptcy filings or a rate of 3.8 filings per 1,000 people aged 15+) since January 2009.

On the surface, this significant decline in bankruptcy filings is a very positive occurrence because it could suggest that consumers are handling their finances better. However, a significant legislative change to the bankruptcy system came into effect on September 18, which made the cost of discharging a bankruptcy more expensive. Also, there was a 29% increase of in filings in September over August (a record increase for the monthly data that goes back to January 1991) to a total of 147,660 annualized filings, or a rate of 5.4 bankruptcy filings per 1,000 people aged 15+ (both of which are records).

A large increase in bankruptcy filings in September could likely be the result of consumers moving filings forward prior to the implementation date of the legislation; therefore, the jump in the September data does not necessarily capture a true increase in bankruptcies, but only captures a portion of filings that could occur later. The decline in consumer filings in October supports this hypothesis.

posted by Paul Tuns at 8:51 AM

 
Noisy sex is 'unnatural'?

The AFP reports:

A British woman admitted Tuesday breaching an anti-social behaviour order by having noisy sex.

Caroline Cartwright was served with a civil order over marathon romps with husband Steve, described in court as "unnatural" and "like they are both in considerable pain."

Think about the roll call of killjoys that resulted in this: the neighbours, the police, the prosecutors and the Newcastle Crown Court. The noise might have disturbed the peace, but to criminalize this seems a little ridiculous.
posted by Paul Tuns at 8:48 AM

 
Most of the Person of the Year finalists suck

Time will announce their Person of the Year on Wednesday and today they made their shortlist public. It is mostly an unimpressive list. "The Chinese worker" is theoretically interesting but too many of them barely rise above the level of slave labour. Sprinter Usain Bolt won his Olympic medals in 2008. Stanley McChrystal is an advisor and Barack Obama was going to do what he was going to do anyway. Nancy Pelosi is partially responsible for Obamacare not getting it through Congress yet (remember it was going to pass by the Summer recess).

I don't know how it can't be Barack Obama or Ben Bernanke. The honour goes to the biggest newsmaker or the person with the most influence on the news and Obama and Bernanke qualify as influential, for sure. But no one really stood out this year as a force for good, although Steve Jobs (one of the finalists) has revolutionized the way we listen to music and use mobile communications. But those changes have occurred over the past half decade not just 2009.
posted by Paul Tuns at 10:25 PM

 
Most sensible climate change plan out there

Tie carbon taxes to temperatures. The idea is Ross McKitrick's. John Tierney writes about it in the New York Times. Tierney says:

McKitrick expects this climate conference to yield the same results as previous ones: grand promises to cut carbon emissions that will be ignored once politicians return home to face voters who are skeptical that global warming is even a problem.

To end this political stalemate, Dr. McKitrick proposes calling each side’s bluff. He suggests imposing financial penalties on carbon emissions that would be set according to the temperature in the earth’s atmosphere. The penalties could start off small enough to be politically palatable to skeptical voters.

If the skeptics are right and the earth isn’t warming, then the penalties for burning carbon would stay small or maybe even disappear. But if the climate modelers and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change are correct about the atmosphere heating up, then the penalties would quickly, and automatically, rise.

Worst climate change plan? It is summed up by a LifeSiteNews.com headline: "Carbon Scheme: Offset Your Jet-Set Lifestyle by Eliminating African Babies."
posted by Paul Tuns at 9:54 PM

 
Climate change talk is costly hot air

Read Bjorn Lomborg's Wall Street Journal article on Copenhagen. Key 'graphs:

As I write this in the Bella Center in Copenhagen, I am surrounded by delegates, politicians and activists engaged in negotiating a successor to the Kyoto Protocol. Almost every one of them is singing from the same hymn-book: The world's nations must commit themselves to drastic, immediate carbon cuts if we are to avoid the worst of global warming.

The tune may be seductive, but the lyrics don't make any sense. Even if every major government were to slap huge taxes on carbon fuels—which is not going to happen—it wouldn't do much to halt climate change any time soon. What it would do is cost us hundreds of billions—if not trillions—of dollars, because alternative energy technologies are not yet ready to take up the slack.

The good thing about all the climate change promises from world leaders is that they won't be fulfilled. But even working toward their unrealistic goals will have costs. Talk is cheap. The consequences of all that gab won't be. And it won't help, even if climate change is a problem in search of a solution. Aren't world leaders and academics smart enough to know this? They should be. Or perhaps climate change is a means to an end and the interventionist policies they propose is a classic example of a solution (more government) in search of a problem (global warming as a pretense for statism).
posted by Paul Tuns at 9:05 AM

 
Three and out

3. The Boston Red Sox overpayed for John Lackey when they inked him to a 5-year, $85 million deal. There will be the usual criticisms about the dollar amounts, but a few things to keep in mind. A win to the Boston Red Sox is worth more than a win to the Baltimore Orioles or Houston Astros or Arizona Diamondbacks. Teams like the BoSox that find themselves in midst of the playoff hunt every year can and should overpay for marginal improvements. Still, they might have given him too much; I think he is going to be worth $17 million a year for the next few seasons to the Red Sox but in 2013 and 2014? Too much risk in taking a pitcher with an injury history to give him a five-year deal. Lackey is 31 and has a 3.81 ERA in just over 1500 IP thus far in his career. Up to this point in his career he looks a lot like Jack McDowell, Alex Fernandez and Tom Glavine did as they turned 31. Only one of those pitchers had much of a career after he turned 31.

2. Seattle has made some big moves in this year's Hot Stove league. Jeff Sackman at Hardball Times likes the Chone Figgins pickup (I do, too). Tim Marchman says the combination of acquisitions does not mean the Mariners are "going for it". Marchman is right to observe that the additions do not represent a huge improvement to the players they are replacing but they do represent a much better chance to replicate or improve their on their showing from 2009. (Unless Seattle moves Figgins from 3B to 2B, in which case they upgrade and they might still be in the hunt for another third baseman.) Another niggling complaint: the additions probably do represent Seattle's thinking that they are going for it all in 2010. Marchman says no because despite a 85-77 record, their Pythagorean record was 75-87; Dave Cameron at USS Mariner says that according to WARS, their actual record isn't that far off what it "should be" (83-79 despite being outscored by more than 50 runs.

1. Question of the day: with Roy Halladay gone, does Toronto finish last in the American League East in 2010? I give it a better-than-even chance of happening.
posted by Paul Tuns at 8:50 AM

 
Four and down

4. Paul Kuharsky of ESPN.com reports that Jacksonville Jaguars and Indianapolis Colts must pretend to have a practice in order to report injury status of various players. Ridiculous ritual to have to go through. I'm not sure if this provides a hint to whether Indy is not going for perfect: "Indy said 29 players -- 55 percent of its roster -- would not have practiced and only two of them were categorized as 'rested'."

3. Here is a transcript of Detroit Lions coach Jim Schwatz's press conference after his team lost to the Baltimore Ravens 48-3. It is pretty typically banal but I think it is funny that he is promising accountability and saying there will be no "sacrificial lamb that we’re going to throw out just to make a point?" Not that some needs to be scapegoated -- Matt Millen ran this organization into the ground during his tenure being before fired in the middle of the 2008 season and it will be a longish road back to respectability -- but it wouldn't hurt to bench some players. Also, Schwartz was vehement that his team didn't quit -- I'm not sure how a team doesn't quit when they are losing by 45 points -- but if they didn't quit, they were comprehensively awful. I think it might be better to say they were throwing in the towel early in this game than to defend the players saying they were trying to win a game in which they scored a mere field goal and gave up nearly 50 points.

2. I wasn't looking forward to the San Francisco 49ers-Arizona Cardinals game last night. I have no emotional investment in either team, find the Niners a dull team to watch because it is trying to figure out its identity and is neither good or awful to watch as they learn who they are, and while the Cards play an exciting brand of football I wasn't in the mood to watch them trounce their division rivals and wrap up the NFC West with three games left on the schedule. I was wrong. The Niners won 24-9 in an exciting game with San Fran playing aggressive defense and forcing seven turnovers. In fact, all the 49er scoring came after Cardinals turnovers. Part of the season-record seven turnovers was due to Arizona sloppiness, but the 49ers deserve credit for stripping balls, making the interceptions, hitting the offensive players hard. And despite the 15-point margin, it always felt that they had a comeback in them until they game up the ball (again) inside the final three minutes trailing 17-9. Frank Gore capped a short drive for score that made it nearly impossible for Cards to get the win. Cards only need one win to clinch the division and still play the Detroit Lions and St. Louis Rams, so they will be returning to the playoffs to defend their NFC crown, but probably with a pair of road games in the, er, cards.

1. I completely agree with Jerry Sullivan of the Buffalo News that WR Lee Evans is a wasted talent on the Buffalo Bills. The thinking when the Bills signed Terrell Owens is that Evans would get more single coverage and he would be even better than he has flashed in the past while being double and even sometimes triple covered. That hasn't happened with Evans averaging 37 yards per game and not having a single game with more than 75 receiving yards. But I don't like Sullivan blaming Evans, complaining that since the WR signed a four-year, $37 million contract extension at the beginning of the '08 season, "he has performed like a marginal wideout." That's not fair. Not once does Sullivan acknowledge that Evans has played the last few years -- Sullivan's complaints cover the last 20 games or so -- with quarterbacks like J.P. Losman, Trent Edwards and Ryan Fitzpatrick. Edwards, I often joke, has difficulty heaving the ball farther than seven or eight yards past the line of scrimmage. Yet, this is Sullivan's only mention of any quarterback: "Next year, Evans will likely be on his fourth head coach, his fifth offensive coordinator and his sixth starting quarterback, in his seventh season." Stability would help, but elite receivers need quarterbacks who can make things happen. Big plays are the result of what happens on both ends of the ball.
posted by Paul Tuns at 8:48 AM