Sobering Thoughts |
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Comments on politics, the culture, economics and religion by Paul Tuns -- in short, everything about the human endeavour from a non-hyphenated conservative perspective.
I am Toronto-based writer and editor, whose articles, columns and reviews have appeared in more than 35 publications. I am editor-in-chief of The Interim, Canada's life and family newspaper, author of Jean Chretien: A Legacy of Scandal and a regular contributor to the book pages of the Halifax Herald.
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Sunday, November 30, 2008
Scientology economics Portfolio looks at estimates of how much the Church of Scientology brings in. Bottom line: lots. Surprising factoid: "The biggest recent U.S. gift was reportedly a $7.5 million donation from Nancy Cartwright, who does the voice of Bart Simpson." Of course, it is all shrouded in secrecy, so most of the numbers are factoids (like a fact, not actual facts) and are taken with a grain of salt. WaPo worries about the lack of acorns The story is about the disappearing Oak nuts, not the leftist nuts. NR's John Miller's comments are all you need. Those who know the wrong history are doomed to repeat it, Or, The New Deal fact of the day George Will offers a history lesson in his WaPo column today: "The assumption is that the New Deal vanquished the Depression. Intelligent, informed people differ about why the Depression lasted so long. But people whose recipe for recovery today is another New Deal should remember that America's biggest industrial collapse occurred in 1937, eight years after the 1929 stock market crash and nearly five years into the New Deal. In 1939, after a decade of frantic federal spending -- President Herbert Hoover increased it more than 50 percent between 1929 and the inauguration of Franklin Roosevelt -- unemployment was 17.2 percent." Will elaborates: "In a 2004 paper, Harold L. Cole of the University of California at Los Angeles and Lee E. Ohanian of UCLA and the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis argued that the Depression would have ended in 1936, rather than in 1943, were it not for policies that magnified the power of labor and encouraged the cartelization of industries. These policies expressed the New Deal premise that the Depression was caused by excessive competition that first reduced prices and wages and then reduced employment and consumer demand. In a forthcoming paper, Ohanian argues that "much of the depth of the Depression" is explained by Hoover's policy -- a precursor of the New Deal mentality -- of pressuring businesses to keep nominal wages fixed. Furthermore, Hoover's 1932 increase in the top income tax rate, from 25 percent to 63 percent, was unhelpful. And FDR's hyperkinetic New Deal created uncertainties that paralyzed private-sector decision making." Steyn on Mumbai Mark Steyn on the terrorist attacks in India: "It’s missing the point to get into debates about whether this is the 'Deccan Mujahideen' or the ISI or al-Qaeda or Lashkar-e-Taiba. That’s a reductive argument. It could be all or none of them. The ideology has been so successfully seeded around the world that nobody needs a memo from corporate HQ to act: There are so many of these subgroups and individuals that they intersect across the planet in a million different ways. It’s not the Cold War, with a small network of deep sleepers being directly controlled by Moscow. There are no membership cards, only an ideology. That’s what has radicalized hitherto moderate Muslim communities from Indonesia to the Central Asian stans to Yorkshire, and co-opted what started out as more or less conventional nationalist struggles in the Caucasus and the Balkans into mere tentacles of the global jihad." Non-football NFL news New York Times headline says it all about the New York Giant's star wide receiver: "Plaxico Burress Shoots Himself Accidentally." Nfl.com has the story, although the headline leaves out the critical information about shooting himself. The coalition of left and lefter Publius at GCH is skeptical that the Liberals and NDP will form a coalition government. Publius says: "Prime Minister Dion? Minister of Finance Jack Layton? What will Bay Street think? What will the Blue Liberals think? What will the Greenistas think? This is an unHoly Alliance and its high priests are likely to get defrocked if it becomes a reality." In theory he is right. But the theory takes into account only ideology, personalities, history and possible consequences of a deal, but not the (admittedly short-term) incentives. The unholy alliance of Dion's Liberals and Layton's NDP makes sense because this maneuvering is about preserving privilege: taxpayer-funded party financing. To a lesser degree, having boxed themselves in, it is also about preventing an election, handing a majority to the Conservatives and thus preserving their jobs. There might also be an element of lame duck Dion wanting to avoid the tag of being the first Liberal leader since Edward Blake not to be prime minister. Publius will be correct if the political science professors are right, but I will be correct if the economists are right. So Publius, should we bet a beer? Saturday, November 29, 2008
The infinite wisdom of the Dalai Lama The Telegraph reports that the Buddhist leader talked in Thailand about the problems that arise from conjugal relationships: "Naturally as a human being...some kind of desire for sex comes, but then you use human intelligence to make comprehension that those relationships are always full of trouble ... Too much attachment towards your children, towards your partner," was "one of the obstacles or hindrances of peace of mind." The celibate Buddhist claimed that the complications that come with sexual relations could lead to suicide and murder. Of course, a culture that completely embraces celibacy would be committing suicide. Any given Sunday  San Francisco 49ers at Buffalo Bills: Niners make the trip East for the early game and play in the frigid open field at Ralph Wilson Stadium. Last week Trent Edwards wracked up huge points against the Kansas City Chiefs and he should do it again with the terrible pass defense of the Niners (average 314 aerial yards per game over the past three games). Niners don't pressure QBs so Edwards will have all the time in the world to find his passing targets. Bills are favoured by seven and they cover. Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals: First-year coach John Harbaugh and rookie QB Joe Flacco have guided the Ravens to an impressive 7-4 record and, more impressively, a surprisingly strong offense (top half in the league). Ravens have a pair of ground threats in Willis MacGahee and Le'Ron McClain. The Ravens shake up their offense just enough to keep opposing defenses off balance. Cincy has scored just 74 points over the past six games. Each of the four Baltimore losses have come against teams who are today in position to make the playoffs. They shouldn't have any trouble with the Bengals and cover the 7-point spread. New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Bucs are perfect at home and the Saints are 1-4 on the road. Tampa has one the better defenses and they seldom give up big plays, but the did when they last faced QB Drew Brees in week one (343 yards and TDs of 39, 84, 42 yards). Bucs QB Jeff Garcia should be able to exploit the Saints' weak pass defense. Tampa doesn't score lots (their 38 points last week against Detroit was the most since 2002 and 14 of those points came off defensive TDs and special teams). Bucs win but don't cover the 4.5 points. New York Giants at Washington Redskins: A re-match of the opening game of the season, when the G-Men beat beating the Skins 16-7. Giants RB Brandon Jacobs and WR Plaxico Burress are hurt, but with the G-Men's depth, it shouldn't matter. Skins have looked vulnerable in the past three weeks, even in their Seahawks victory. Giants run defense might stop RB Clinton Portis. Giants are favoured by 3.5 and they cover easily because I can't see the Skins pressuring Eli Manning. Miami Dolphins at St. Louis Rams: The Fins have a solid running game and the Rams give up a lot of running yards (162 per game). The Rams have mastered total crapitude, losing five in a row, the last four by at least 19 and have been outscored by 111 points over the past five. Dolphins are not very strong on defense, especially with OLB Joey Porter and ILB Channing Crowder questions marks for the game, but the Rams are not the team to exploit that weakness. Fins are favoured by 7.5 and should cover because of the complete offensive ineptitude of the Rams offense (fewest points and TDs in the league). Indianapolis Colts at Cleveland Browns: A surging Colts against the 27th ranked defense. The Browns have reverted back to the atrocious Derek Anderson at QB with Brady Quinn out for the season with a finger injury. Watch Peyton Manning throw to Anthony Gonzalez on third downs. Colts favoured by five. With Manning (one of the two MVP candidates) and Browns' lacklustre defense, the Colts win and easily cover. Carolina Panthers at Green Bay Packers: Which Packers team shows up? Which Panthers team? These two teams have had Jekyll and Hyde weeks; the Packers beat the Bears by 34 followed it up with a 22-point loss to the Saints. The Panthers had a seemingly impenetrable defense early in the season but lately have looked more human. Panthers QB Jake Delhomme has been awful for the past month, even when the Panthers win. Bad weather might help if it forces him to hand the ball off to DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart rather than pass it; Packers have one of the worst run defenses in the league. Packers are on the short week, but Aaron Rodgers and Green Bay should have an advantage playing in cold and possibly snowy Lambeau Field. Packers are favoured by three and that sounds about right. Atlanta Falcons at San Diego Chargers: The storyline everyone is watching here is the return of Michael Turner to San Diego, where Turner backed up LT for four years. The real story is the under-estimation of the Chargers. Statistically, a case can be made that Philip Rivers is one of the best QBs in the game. He has the NFL's best passer-rating (103.3) and has thrown more TDs (23)than any other QB. He faces Atlanta's 27th ranked pass defense. Rookie QB Matt Ryan has had a respected first year (88.3 passer rating) and he should hook up with his favourite receiver, WR Roddy White, while facing the league's worst pass defense, but Ryan might be forced to go to the air more often than he'd like with the strong Chargers' run defense containing Turner. Bolts are favoured by four and they will cover. Denver Broncos at New York Jets: The Jets defense is among the league's best but it is powered by their dominant run defense. The Broncs don't run, so the Jets need to stop Jay Cutler from passing the ball to Brandon Marshall and Eddie Royal. Denver secondary won't stop Brett Favre from getting the ball into the hands of WRs Laveranues Coles and Jerricho Cotchery and TE Dustin Keller. Even if the Jets fall behind, the Broncs have the worst second-half defense according to Football Outsiders. Jets win and cover the 7.5 points. Pittsburgh Steelers at New England Patriots: If you think the Pats are going to win, you'd point to the fact that last Sunday Matt Cassel became only the fifth QB to throw 400 yards in back-to-back games, Pat's offensive co-ordinator Josh McDaniels is comfortable utilizing the whole playbook with Cassel, the defense is getting better as the year progresses, and no one prepares a team for a game as well as coach Bill Belichick. If you think the Steelers are going to win, you'd point to the fact that Cassel hasn't faced a defense as good as Pittsburgh's, that the Steelers have had 10 ten days to prepare for this game and have Ben Roesthlisberger rest his sore shoulder. I'm going to give it to Steelers' because the Pats' secondary is still suspect giving Big Ben the chance to get the ball into the hands of Hines Ward and Santonio Holmes, Pittsburgh's D has not allowed more than 250 passing yards in any their previous 11 games, and their OLBs LaMarr Woodley and James Harrison are going to be all over Cassel. Pats are favoured by one, but I'm predicting the upset. Kansas City Chiefs at Oakland Raiders: The Chiefs defense is really, really, really bad. Oakland's defense hasn't been so terrible lately, allowing just 44 points in the past three games. The Raiders run (Justin Fargas and Darren McFadden are capable of being a great 1-2 rushing combo) and the Chiefs give up nearly 169 yards per game and have allowed the most running TDs (19). Oakland covers the three points even if the Chiefs offensive is improving with Tyler Thigpen spreading the offense around more effectively in the past four games than KC had for the first half of the season. Repeat: the Chiefs defense is really, really, really bad. Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings: Adrian Peterson should be unstoppable at home on the turf. Minny's quality O-line against the Bears' rejuvenated D-line will be a great battle to watch. Bears' QB Kyle Orton has a respectable 88 passer rating on the year, has 11 TDs compared to just four interceptions and hasn't thrown a pick eight of the ten games he's played in this year. Vikings QB Gus Frerotte had a great game against Tampa Bay's normally superb defense two weeks ago and has had a passer rating 105.8 or better in two of his last four games; in the other two games, his rating has been 56.2 or worse. Which Frerotte shows up will make the difference, but he has proven that he can beat quality D's. Vikes win and cover the three points. Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans: The Texans are getting better as the season goes on, with QB Sage Rosenfels improving over the past month since replacing Matt Schaub. Jax QB David Garard isn't being protected by his porous O-line. Neither team has performed to how pre-season predictions had them doing, but the Texans seem to be on the way up as Jax seems in disarray and pundits are wondering about coach Jack Del Rio's future with the team just months after signing an extension to 2012. Texans are favoured by three which sounds about right; this game is going to be about not making mistakes and exploiting the ones the opponents make. Give this one to the home team which is playing its first ever Monday Night Football game. Friday, November 28, 2008
Another reason there won't be an election Just because the government falls, does not mean the Governor General must call an election. (Time for a high level civics lesson, folks.) CP is reporting that Jean Chretien and Ed Broadbent are talking about the Liberals and NDP forming a coalition government if they defeat the Tories over funding their political parties. Prediction on an election in Canada Not going to happen. Liberals have generally been very careful to say that they are not supporting the economic statement rather than say they are opposing it. And even if they were to oppose it, one of the other parties would find a way not to show up. And do any of the opposition parties really want to force an election on the issue of taxpayer handouts to political parties? Planned Parenthood is disgusting LifeNews reports that Planned Parenthood of Indiana is promoting gift cards from their clinics for Christmas. The cards can be redeemed for breast examinations and pap smears, contraception and abortions. As the PPIN press release states: "Why not buy a loved one a gift this holiday season that they really need ... The gift certificates are also a wonderful idea for that person in your life who puts everyone else first ... Please join Planned Parenthood of Indiana and give the gift of health this holiday season." So ladies, how would you like a pap smear for Christmas? Or an abortion? InTrade on InTrade From the online forecasting/betting site InTrade: "We have now just listed 4 new markets on whether Intrade.com will open and operational at the end of June 09, December ’09, June ’10 and December ’10." Their explanation is here. Their exchange is here. So far, betting is strong that they will be around. Robson on campus politics Ottawa Citizen columnist John Robson on the brouhaha over the Carleton University Students Association refusing to raise money for cystic fibrosis because it disproportionately affects white men (a decision they later reversed): "It is also remarkable that those who passed the original CUSA motion did not realise it would be controversial, let alone that it ought to be. The lesson: Student politics is frequently dominated by childish, hothouse radicalism." And as a bonus, Robson points to politically correct ailments that disproportionately affect certain segments of the population (AIDS, breast cancer) that get privileged treatment. More about Islam than Mumbai Andrew McCarthy in The Corner: "In July 2007, our intelligence community released findings of a National Intelligence Estimate that indicated jihadist ideology had become so extensively propagated in the West that the mediating influence of terrorist organizations like al Qaeda was no longer essential in order for radical cells to spring up and interconnect. Naturally, these local operatives are spurred, in part, by local and regional issues. But, though the mainstream press recoils from this reality, such local issues are fitted to an ideological framework that is global, hegemonic, and more about the ultimate triumph of fundamentalist Islam than, say, a Palestinian state, Kashmir, Danish cartoons, economic inequality, or whatever this week's complaint is." AGT revisited Tennessee Titans 47, Detroit Lions 10: Amazing: 47 points and neither Titans QB had a TD pass. Importantly for the Titans, their run looked good: RB Chris Johnson had 125 yards on 16 carries for 2 TDs and RB LenDale White had 106 yards on 23 carries and 2 TDs. It was never close, with Tennessee leading 35-3 before the Lions scored their TD. The margin and total points should put an end to the sports meme of the week, namely that the Titans have been supplanted by the Jets as the team to beat in the AFC. Correctly predicted Titans to cover the 11 point spread. Dallas Cowboys 34, Seattle Seahawks 9: Dallas dominated, with QB Tony Romo having a solid game: 22/34, 331 yards, 3 TDs against one interception. TE Jason Witten really came back: 9 catches for 115 yards and a TD. Dallas looked great, Romo made some big passes, the offense was diverse and spread out the 'Hawks defense and their own defense did not allow a Seattle TD. Correctly predicted Cowboys to cover the 13 point spread. Philadelphia Eagles 48, Arizona Cardinals 20: Everything that has recently gone wrong for the Eagles, turned around. The O-line was better, the defense got their act together, struggling Brian Westbrook (playing with knee and leg injuries) tied the Eagles' record of four scores -- two each running and catching -- in one game, and Donovan McNabb had an incredible game (27/39, 260 yards, 260, 4 TDs, 121.7 passer rating). Cards didn't help their cause with four turnovers, including Kurt Warner uncharacteristically throwing three picks. I thought the Cards would win because while sometimes one part of the team will fix what's wrong, seldom does everything fix itself simultaneously. Prepare yourself for talk about the Eagles making a run for the playoffs. (Not going to happen.) Wednesday, November 26, 2008
Ezra to the Tories From Ezra Levant's website: "I've got a question for my friends in the Conservative government. Two actually: 1. If the Toronto Star, Globe and Mail, CBC, etc., etc., are all on side with repealing section 13, what's the political risk anymore? Other than a washed-up old Adscammer and a few lawyers who make their money off the censorship racket, is there anyone in the country who supports it? In fact, wouldn't repealing section 13 be a great way to reach out to the intellectual Left -- such as PEN Canada, EGALE, and other liberal groups -- and show that the government respects freedom of expression? Wouldn't that be an interesting way to counter charges made earlier this year about the government's approach to free expression in arts grants? In other words, isn't it clear by now that repealing section 13 is not only not dangerous, but it would be a positive political win? 2. More briefly: doesn't it feel weird to have the Toronto Star outflank a Conservative government on the issue of freedom? Does the government really want to be seen as the last people to wake up to the threat of section 13, and to do so reluctantly and in a miserly manner? Shake your head!" Great new journal Policy in Public, from Cardus, formerly the Work Research Foundation. The lead article and a rebuttal piece are on the construction sector in Canada, there is a review of Paul Martin Jr.'s memoir Hell or High Water, and a round-up of what other think tanks and policy shops are doing (much as the old American Enterprise magazine used to do). Any given Thursday  Tennessee Titans at Detroit Lions: If the New York Jets hadn't beaten the Titans on Sunday, the Thanksgiving game in Detroit would have featured an 11-0 team facing an 0-11 game. Over the past three games, the Titans' rush has been a shell of its former self (59.7 yards per game and a total of one TD compared to nearly 150 yards per game and 15 TDs in 8 games) and in the game against New York their O-line was repeatedly penetrated by the Jets defense. In other words, they are looking more vulnerable. But now they play the awful Lions, who have blown double-digit leads in three of their past four games. The Titans should re-establish their running game, facing the Lions' terrible rush defense (worst rush yards allowed, second worst yards per carry and third most running TDs allowed). Also, QB Kerry Collins will have lots of time in the pocket because the Lions defense can't pressure anyone. Titans win and cover the 11 point spread. Seattle Seahawks at Dallas Cowboys: Seattle is improving, but they are starting from such a low base that even a better 'Hawks game is pretty pathetic. QB Matt Hasselbeck hasn't been all that impressive since returning in early November (five interceptions in two games). The Boys are hitting their stride, with the O-line regaining its early dominance, the defense stopping opposing offenses cold (41 points allowed in their last three wins) and Tony Romo showing what he is capable of. TO is happy and productive, and TE Jason Witten is ready for a big game. Seattle's pass defense is weak, so Romo will probably find his targets and if he can't watch RB Marion Barber to run lots. Cowboys win and cover the 13. Arizona Cardinals at Philadelphia Eagles: The Eagles are in turmoil and it isn't all the QB situation. Their O-line has been a sieve recently, RB Brian Westrook hasn't been running and, oh yes, Donovan McNabb has been horrible lately. In his last three games, McNabb has completion percentages of 47.2%, 48.3% and 44.4% and in his last two games his passer rating has been 50.9 and 13.2. Add to that, the controversy of McNabb being benched at half-time last week and the decision the organization has to make about whether he is their QB, and you have a recipe for an upset against the home team. The Cards lost but looked good against the NFL's best team, the New York Giants, on Sunday, and they have one of the two best aerial games with QB Kurt Warner and a deep wide receiver corps led by Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin. What should keep the Eagles in the game is their defense which is still strong and capable of being dominant. Their blitzing defense will pressure Warner and their secondary will pester Arizona's WRs. Philly is favoured by three, but as the ESPN Power Rankings said this week, don't be surprised if Arizona finds a way to win in Philadelphia. Tuesday, November 25, 2008
AGS revisited Pittsburgh Steelers 27, Cincinatti Bengals 10: Cincy got off to a 7-0 first quarter lead and then gave up 27 answered Steelers points. Steelers O-line protected Ben Roethlisberger (no sacks) and he responded by leading four quality drives (54, 72, 64 and 73 yards), three which ended with a TD and one in a field goal. Big Ben was 6/14 on third downs. Troy Polamalu intercepted a Ryan Fitzpatrick pass in the red zone in the final seconds to make those who bet on the Steelers (by 10.5) happy. I predicted Pittsburgh would win and cover. Baltimore Ravens 36, Philadelphia Eagles 7: I predicted a Ravens win, but didn't think it would be so big. Turnovers were the difference maker, because the teams were close except in this area: Philly had five, Ravens had none. Kevin Kolb started at QB in the second half, replacing Donovan McNabb, who just one week ago played in overtime without any urgency because he was unaware that NFL games could end in ties. Rob Longley of the Toronto Sun noted that Eagles had almost as many turnovers (5) as points (7). Ouch. Houston Texans 16, Cleveland Browns 6: I thought would win. Browns had five turnovers and turned game calling duties back to Derek Anderson during the game because of Brady Quinn's injured index finger. Dallas Cowboys 35, San Francisco 49ers 22: I predicted the Cowboys to win and cover (10 points). Niners got off to a 6-0 lead but coughed up 22 second quarter points. Tony Romo had a big game for the Boys: 23 of 39 for 341 yards and 3 TDs. WR Terrell Owens had a bigger game: seven catches for 213 yards and 1 TD, including a big 75 yard play. He didn't have a 100 yard receiving game in the previous 10 games and then effectively had two of them in game 11. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 38, Detroit Lions 20: I thought the Bucs would win without covering the 8.5 spread. But one should never under-estimate how truly terrible the Lions are. They blew a 17-0 first quarter lead and were behind by half-time. Tampa took some chances and was two-for-two on fourth downs in their drive to come back. They scored five unanswered TDs in the second and third quarters. Both teams had three turnovers. Lions fall to 0-11 and have five more tries to avoid a completely futile season. Minnesota Vikings 30, Jacksonville Jaguars 12: I thought Jax would win a close, back-and-forth game. Vikes were never behind and won just their second road game even though the Jags had nearly 100 more net yards than the victors. Buffalo Bills 53, Kansas City Chiefs 31: With both teams struggling, I thought Bills would win a close one. Chiefs had five turnovers, including two Tyler Thigpen interceptions. Bills QB Trent Edwards returned to his early season form: 24/32, 273 yards, 2 TDs, no interceptions. WR Lee Evans had five catches for 110 yards, including one play for 51 yards. Buffalo decisively ends their four-game losing streak. New England Patriots 48, Miami Dolphins 28: I said, "New England is favoured by by 1, but they should win by more." They did. They dominated with 530 total net yards. QB Matt Cassel was 30 for 43 for 415 yards and 3 TDs. Both Randy Moss and Wes Welker caught for at least 120 yards and Moss had 3 touchdowns. Nice to see Cassel finally connecting with Moss. While the final score indicated the game was a blowout, the lead changed seven times. Chicago Bears 27, St. Louis Rams 3: I doubted the Bears ability to beat the 9.5 point spread. Rams gave up four turnovers, lost their starting QB and Bears RB Matt Forte had 132 yards on 20 carries (including one for 47 yards) and two TDs. All adds up to a convincing Bears victory. Rams are reaching Lions' level of suckitude. They were held to just 14 rushing yards. New York Jets 34, Tennessee Titans 13: I thought the Titans would win, but thought that if anyone could beat the Titans it was the Jets. Jets dominated: 409 total net yards and 40:30 minutes of possession, compared to 281 net yards and 19:30 minutes of possession. Normally stellar Titans defense couldn't contain Brett Favre (25 for 32 for 224 yards and two TDs). Jets defense prevented any Titans runner or receiver from getting more than 46 yards. Titans lose for the first team this season. Oakland Raiders 31, Denver Broncos 10: I went back and forth about whether the Broncs would cover the 9.5 points, but I had no doubt they would win. Raiders Darren McFadden had 10 carries for just 38 yards but two TDs. JaMarcus Russell made 10 of 11 throws. Broncs had two interceptions. And although these stats might explain why the Broncs lost, it does not explain how they could lose to the Raiders. Atlanta Falcons 45, Carolina Panthers 28: Although Atlanta was favoured by one, I thought the Panthers could win. The Panthers had more yards, controlled possession and didn't have a turnover, yet the Falcons won decisively. The difference: Rb Michael Turner ran for 117 yards and had four TDs. Panthers WR Steve Smith had a big game, too: 8 catches for 168 yards, including a 41-yard play. Teams combined for 43 points in the fourth quarter. New York Giants 37, Arizona Cardinals 29: I thought Kurt Warner would lead the Cards to an upset, but the G-Men are just incredible, tied for the NFL-best 10-1. It was close for the first half, with the lead changing five times, but the Giants can win with their passing game, running game or by shutting down opponents' offense. They couldn't quite prevent Warner from getting the job done (32/52, 351 yards, 1 TD) but the Cards need a more balanced offense (they went to the pass for 21 of 23 first downs). Eli Manning had a great game: 26/33, 240 yards, 3 TDs (all by different receivers). Washington Redskins 20, Seattle Seahawks 17: I said I wouldn't be surprised to see the Skins beat the three point spread but although Washington dominated total yards and possession, they needed a fourth quarter field goal to win. Indianapolis Colts 23, San Diego Chargers 20: I predicted the Colts would upset the Chargers. It was an exciting game between two good teams with a fun combination of running and passing. The Chargers are 4-7 but four of their losses have come in the final 24 seconds and two of the games were decided by bad calls. They lost this one on a 51-yard FG by Adam Vinatieri on the second last second of the game, partly because of poor clock management by the Chargers that gave Indy QB Peyton Manning a minute-and-a-half to get his kicker in scoring position. New Orleans Saints 51, Green Bay Packers 29: I predicted an upset by the Packers on the strength of their pass offense which I thought would shut down Saints QB Drew Brees (which didn't happen) and that the Packers would go with the running game to keep Brees off the field (Aaron Rodgers was passing when it was close). Rodgers threw three picks and the Saints fooled the Packers into making bad defensive runs, but the big difference was Brees: 20/26, 323 yards, 4 TDs. Brees threw for two 70-yard plays. The RBs also had three TDs, two by Pierre Thomas and one by Deuce McAllister, who scored his 54th TD as a Saint in his career, the most in franchise history. Monday, November 24, 2008
Photos from Israel, Part X (Jerusalem)  The Old City of Jerusalem, an area of the city that has some very important religious sites for Christians (Church of the Holy Sepulchre), Jews (the Temple Mount and the Western Wall) and Muslims (Dome of the Rock and al-Aqsa Mosque). The brilliant golden dome is the Dome of the Rock, built in 691 although the golden roof is of more recent vintage (the past 50 years).  Garden of Gethsemane (where Jesus was betrayed by Judas) at the foot of the Mount of Olives, from the top of the hill. The golden domes belong to the Russian Orthodox Church of St. Mary Magdalene.  The third station of the cross (Jesus falls for the first time) in an Armenian Catholic church as part of the Via Dolorosa, which is (strangely) in the Muslim quarter of the Old City. Fifteen feet from the church are street-front shops including one selling lingerie and a t-shirt with a machine gun on it that read: 'Uzi does it'.  The Western Wall. A rabbi approached me and asked if I was married. I said yes. He asked if I had children. I answered that I had five. He gave me a blessing and I said thank you. He informed me that I should show him my appreciation and I gave him a few shekels. He said, "No, American dollars." There were a half-dozen such rabbis shaking visitors down for blessings.  The Western Wall, from a distance. Photos from Israel, Part IX (Bethlehem)  The Church of the Nativity in Bethlehem. Quick story: a cousin of our Palestinian taxi driver collected four from our group to jump the queue to see the location marking when the manger was 2000 years ago in the cave where Jesus was born. He brought us to the Greek Orthodox priest who let us skip the one hour wait and go down to the Grotto and take our time to pray and take pictures at the silver star, beneath the altar. Afterward, the priest let us know that if we had appreciated his expediting our visit downstairs, he would gladly accept a demonstration of our gratitude. After I paid him off, he paid the 'cousin' who claimed to be named Joseph, although the priest called him Khalil.  The security wall separating Bethlehem and Jerusalem, from the Palestinian side. On the Palestinian side, there is plenty of graffiti.  The security wall from the Israeli side. There is no graffiti on this side, and picture-taking is frowned upon. Photos from Israel, Part VIII (Second coolest moment in Israel)  At a truck stop, somewhere just north of Jericho. Photos from Israel, Part VII (Dead Sea)  The Dead Sea, which is 20% salt.  Me in the Dead Sea. I couldn't sink, even when trying. I only rotated. Sunday, November 23, 2008
Photos from Israel, Part VI (Bet She'an)  There is a giant archaeological dig at Bet She'an. Here is a picture of most of the excavated. The bath house, ampitheatre, columns and foundations are 4,000-4,500 years old.  The ampitheatre.  Restored pillars at Bet She'an. Photos from Israel, Part V (Mount Tabor -- the coolest part of the trip)  These two members of the IDF were making coffee on top of Mount Tabor -- grinding the beans, heating it over an open flame -- and invited our party to join them. It was the best coffee I have ever had, which might be context dependent but might have more to do with the fact that it had cardamon in it.  Me with a member of the Israeli Defense Forces. At Mount Tabor, which is not near the border, the IDF was very friendly. No hostilities nearby. They invited us for coffee and let us take their picture with them and the humvee. Nearby, the Church of the Transfiguration. Nice enough church, beautiful view from the top of the hill, but nothing quite compares with hanging out with the IDF. Photos from Israel, Part IV (Sea of Galilee)  The Sea of Galilee as seen from my room at the Sheraton in Tiberias.  The Sea of Galilee (from a boat on the inland lake) with the Golan Heights in the background. The sea is quite small (21 kms long, 13 kms wide).  The White Synagogue, reportedly built upon the synagogue that Jesus used 2000 years ago, in Capernaum ('the town of Jesus').  The Catholic chapel at the Mount of Beatitudes.  The River Jordan. Photos from Israel, Part III (Nazareth)  City of Nazareth, which is mostly Arab and Muslim today. The cities in the west (north of Tel Aviv) and toward the centre of the country in the north, look like this, built along the sides of hills and mountains.  The Church of the Annunciation in Nazareth. Later I will post the art from around the world depicting the Virgin Mary that is displayed in the courtyard outside the church and within the church.  Another view of the Church of the Annunciation.  Sign put up by locals in front of the Church of the Annunciation.  Church of St. Gabriel, the Greek Orthodox Church in Nazareth. Photos from Israel, Part II (Caesarea)  Remains of King Herod's palace at Caesarea, an ancient city built on the Mediterranean coast north of Tel Aviv. The city was originally built by Straton I of Sidon but rebuilt, expanded and renamed by Herod to impress his Roman superiors.  The remains of the hippodrome at Caesarea. It was open on the east side so the winds and mist from the sea could cool spectators.  This is the site of the Apollo Temple built by Herod. When the city was taken over by Christians, they tore down the temple and replaced it with a church. When the Muslims took over the city, they tore down the church and replaced it with a mosque.  Walls and a dry moat were built by Louis IV to fortify the city during Crusader times. Saturday, November 22, 2008
Photos from Israel, Part I (Tel Aviv)  Looking north in Tel Aviv from St. Peter's Church.  Looking east from my hotel room. If I turn 90 degree right, I would be looking at the Mediterranean. How not to annoy people Gretchen Rubin at The Happiness Project has a list of seven things to do (and not do) to avoid annoying others: 1. Don’t use a whiny voice. 2. Watch your cell phone use. 3. Don’t curse. 4. Clean up after yourself. 5. Think about whether you’re being interesting. Certain topics are very interesting to the speaker, much less interesting to the listener: descriptions of dreams, fond discussions about your children, re-tellings of the plots of movies or plays. 6. Watch the eye-stray. When you’re talking to someone in a crowded room, it’s tempting to keep looking around at the other people. This is very annoying to the person to whom you’re speaking; it feels like you’re hoping to find a more interesting conversationalist... 7. Remember that different things annoy different people. Rubin expands on these points at her blog. As for me, I was okay until point three, and then it was all down hill. Tyranny of Nice reviewed  John Jalsevac writes of Kathy Shaidle and Pete Vere, co-authors of The Tyranny of Nice: "Indeed, this humble pair has done a great service for those who are concerned about the future of democratic freedoms in Canada. They have pulled together in one short, easy-to-read, 80-page volume, a goodly portion of the lunacy of the commissions, well documented and entertainingly presented; and the end result is to leave no question that the commissions amount to a serious threat to freedom in Canada and that something must be done about it." The full review is at LifeSiteNews.com. MSM inadvertently reports the truth Daily Telegraph: "The Houses of Parliament, Downing Street and other parts of Whitehall are infested with vermin, according to official reports." (HT: Samizdata) Friday, November 21, 2008
You just can't close Gitmo Benjamin Wittes of the Brookings Institute has a thoughtful column in the Washington Post on the issues surrounding the closing of Guantanamo. He states, quite correctly, that whatever problems arise from the detention operations there, one cannot close it without addressing what to do with those are detained there. Wittes says: "There are three major groups of detainees at Guantanamo, each presenting distinct policy problems. For starters, there are detainees who could face trial. Most people regard criminal prosecution as the best means of neutralizing terrorism suspects and justifying their long-term detention, and some people regard trial as the only legitimate means of locking up America's enemies. But how big is the group that might plausibly face charges? And to what extent does its size depend on which forum the government uses for prosecution? Is it a much smaller group if America tries these people in federal courts or courts-martial than if it continues using President Bush's much-derided military commissions? Without knowing the answer to these questions, one cannot accurately assess the costs and benefits of America's trial options. Second, roughly 60 detainees have been cleared for release or transfer from Guantanamo but are stuck there because of fears of mistreatment at the hands of their own governments. Will Obama have an easier time than Bush in persuading third countries to accept these detainees, particularly if he accepts a few of them into the United States? That may well be the case, but without serious diplomatic engagement over the question, we simply can't know how intractable this problem will prove to be. The ruling yesterday by a federal judge in Washington that five of six detainees in one case were held unlawfully raises the additional question of how many detainees should simply be released. Third and most troublesome are the detainees too dangerous to be released but who cannot face criminal charges. How many, if any, this group contains will ultimately shape Obama's policy. Detainees who pose a grave national security threat might be unprosecutable for a variety of reasons: because of deficiencies in the criminal law as it stood in 2001, because evidence against them would not stand up in court, because the government might not have enough evidence to convict or because it obtained key evidence under coercive conditions. If there are only a few such detainees, and the danger they pose seems manageable, those of us who have advocated a preventive detention system should reconsider our position. On the other hand, some human rights advocates acknowledge privately that they may reconsider their categorical opposition to preventive detention if the group proves substantial and the danger it poses too significant to ignore. Right now, we can only guess at this group's size." I look forward to the Obama administration publicly stating their plans. Space-age journalism John Schwartz in his New York Times blog: "How does distilled urine and sweat taste? Not bad, actually." Not that NYT writers go around drinking pee and sweat for fun -- this is part of their duties in covering NASA. Schwartz explains: "[T]he 'water recovery system,' which will recycle the station’s water supply. That’s right: urine, sweat in the air, waste water and other forms of moisture will be fed into the system, distilled and sent back to the tap. The system, created at a cost of about $250 million, will recycle about 93 percent of the water used aboard the station. The cost of lifting supplies up to orbit is so high, though, that NASA estimates the system could pay for itself in as little as two years. Similar systems would be essential to maintaining long-term bases on faraway outposts on the Moon and Mars." This seems to go beyond the call of duty for journalists, although New York Times' writers seem to have strange fetishes; a few weeks ago one wrote about fondling a Kindle. Still, re-using water in this way isn't as horrible as it sounds; many communities use similar systems to conserve water and reduce waste (Orange County, for example). But this falls into the 'ignorance is bliss' file. New modesty for coverage of His Royal Hopeness The introduction in Jonah Goldeberg's article on Barack Obama-Abraham Lincoln comparisons is priceless: "In an attempt to dial down expectations for his administration, President-elect Barack Obama’s supporters have dropped much of the 'messiah' talk. No more talk of him being The One (Oprah), or a Jedi Knight (George Lucas), or a 'Lightworker' (the San Francisco Chronicle), or a 'quantum leap in American consciousness' (Deepak Chopra). Instead we have more humble and circumspect conversation about the man. Now he’s merely Abraham Lincoln and FDR and Martin Luther King, combined." The brilliance of government planning Caroline Porter at the Adam Smith Institute blog notes: "In England, the NHS reduced spending on maternity by £55 million in 2006-07, while the birthrate has risen 16 percent since 2001." This has ramifications: "NHS shortcomings have caused an increasing number of litigations from the victims of insufficient care. The cost of maternity-related claims has risen from £163 million in 2003-04 to £288 million in 2007-08." The London Times story on this development is here. Brooks on the next administration David Brooks in today's New York Times: "This truly will be an administration that looks like America, or at least that slice of America that got double 800s on their SATs. Even more than past administrations, this will be a valedictocracy — rule by those who graduate first in their high school classes. If a foreign enemy attacks the United States during the Harvard-Yale game any time over the next four years, we’re screwed." Of course, to too many Republicans, this much education and academic achievement is reason enough to dislike the Democratic administration. A few observations about my trip to Israel  It has been a week since I returned from a week-long trip to Israel. I went with four other Canadian Catholic journalists on a junket paid for by the Israeli Board of Tourism. The board of tourism wants us to promote trips to the Holy Land in our publications and broadcasts and the only condition is that the stories not be political. I have a few political and sociological observations in this post that won't make into my coverage that will appear in a forthcoming edition of The Interim. So here are a few -- well, 21, so more than a few -- thoughts about my trip. There is more to come later. 1) If you are preparing a trip to Israel, be prepared for a lot of this question: "Israel?" By which the other person means, "Are you crazy, do you know how dangerous it is?" But it isn't dangerous. 2) The only time I didn't feel safe was when our guide took us around some ancient ruins and we came across two pit bulls. At first, we weren't sure if they could get to us, but they were, in fact, securely in a fenced in area. I have never been so scared in my life, but this had nothing to do with Israel's typical dangers and could have happened anywhere. 3) I know Israel is a Western country but it was still jarring to see the Western advertising (Pierre Cardin and KFC) and two McDonald's within a block of one another. 4) Muslims and Jews live beside one another, but in no sense together. They generally don't work together, and certainly don't eat or shop in the same places. 5) I knew that it was an ethnically diverse country, but I wasn't prepared for how much. Or how different various Muslims or Jews were. 6) Many Russian Jews might be Russian, but they aren't Jews. They claimed they were to get out of Russia/the Soviet Union. 7) We stayed in Tel Aviv, Tiberias (after an afternoon in Nazareth) and Jerusalem. Tel Aviv is the most western and is the country's commercial center. Tiberias is like a resort town. There is no analogy for Jerusalem, which has historic sites within eye shot of tall, new apartments. 8) The Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) were friendlier the farther away from the West Bank one is. I'll explain more about this in another post. 9) I am a Zionist, and the security wall has made life for the average Israeli a lot safer. But a short trip to Palestinian territory (to Bethlehem, for example) and talking to Palestinians can challenge one's views. It is, understandably, a source of deep resentment. That said, if there wasn't the fence, it would be something else. 10) The country is geographically diverse. Within three hours, you have the Mediterranean coastal areas with banana and palm trees, the temperate woody areas of the north, grassy hills, mountains and desertish. And we only saw the top third of the country. 11) The Sea of Galilee is a lake, and a small one at that. You could probably drive around it in an hour. 12) People there like ice cream. Ice cream shops and stands are about as common as Tim Hortons or coffee shops are here in Canada. 13) The driving is crazy. One of my colleagues and I joked about starting a pool for when the first fender bender would be. Then we joked about a second pool for the first head-on collision. There are few stop lights, stop signs or yields, even when roads converge. At least in Jamaica, people honk when they are passing over hills or around corners or merge into traffic without slowing down or looking. Not in Israel. 14) Relatedly, drivers break very late, almost at the last second. Most cars stop within a foot of the car in front of them. Yet, we didn't see one accident. Nor, thankfully, were we part of one. 15) One last traffic note: the car horn might be the national sound. Wait even a milli-second once a light turns green in Jerusalem and be prepared to be honked at. 16) The churches (eastern orthodox and Catholic) are beautiful and even though many of them were built in the past century, they mark significant sites -- or the historically accepted site where this or that is thought to have occurred. I'll have more about this in another post. 17) The Church of the Nativity in Bethlehem left me cold. It is located at the historically accepted site of the cave where Jesus was born. But a local Palestinian guide (not the one we had for the rest of the trip because Israeli guides are not allowed into Palestinian-controlled areas) collected us and had a Russian orthodox priest assist us jumping the one-hour queue to go into the grotto where a manger is set up and a well to the rocks below is kissed by visitors. When we were done going through the grotto the priest let us know that is we had "something in your heart to show how much you appreciated" his help, he would gladly accept. I don't want to use the word bribe... As we left, the priest gave the 'helpful' guide a handshake after which the guide placed something in his pocket. What a racket. Jesus would have thrown them out of the church. 18) While the Christians in Jerusalem generally don't get along -- the Church of the Holy Sepulchre in Old Jerusalem was closed just before our visit because Armenian and Greek Orthodox monks fought there one day -- most local Christians hate Armenian Christians and none seem to have problems with the Catholics. 19) Yad Vahsem moved me more than I expected. There were times I could barely contain the tears at the Holocaust memorial and museum. 20) The board of tourism wanted us to see lots so we can come back and promote the Holy Land as a pilgrimage site for our readers. So we were very busy with non-stop days that ran from 8:30-5:30 (or later), followed by a meal that usually started at 9 pm and lasted two to two-and-a-half hours. I hope to post something about eating in Israel at a later date. 21) I was wearing three hats during my trip to Israel: my tourist hat, my journalist hat and my pilgrim hat. I didn't spend enough time with that last hat and would love to return purely as a pilgrim. That said, I found my faith deepened and reinforced. I can't say why (because I don't know). Perhaps it was the greater understanding of Biblical stories that comes with familiarity with the region; perhaps it was the chance to reflect on the beautiful art on display in many of the churches; perhaps it was the knowledge that about 2000 years ago Jesus lived in the area that we covered during our six day stay. I don't know why and I'm not sure it would make any sense if I did know, but I do know I returned spiritually refreshed. That's all for now. I'll post about specific sites and themes later, when I have my pictures ready to post. I took more than 600 pictures, so I have to decide on a few good ones. I also have to write a story for The Interim -- perhaps more than one -- and don't want to use my best stuff here (just yet). Thursday, November 20, 2008
Any given Sunday  Cincinatti Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers: Bengals, their tie against the Philadelphia Eagles notwithstanding, are awful. The Steelers have hit their stride. Ben Roesthlisberger has had a pair of strong games by getting rid of the ball quickly with short passes. Pittsburgh has the second best defense in league and it should crush the Bengals who are missing key pieces (Carson Palmer, Chad Ocho Cinco). Steelers win and cover the 10.5 point spread by scoring their first offensive TDs in three games. Philadelphia Eagles at Baltimore Ravens: Both teams are coming off disappointing games: Philly tying the hapless Bengals and the normally strong defense of the Ravens allowing the Giants to score 30 points. Philly has been inconsistent all year and Donovan McNabb hasn't found a passing target he is comfortable with; he was comprehensively awful in the Cincy tie. Ravens are at home, have a defense that can contain McNabb and perhaps Brian Westbrook and must win to stay within striking distance of the Steelers. Baltimore is favoured by 1 (some oddsmakers have it even). Ravens win. Houston Texans at Cleveland Browns: Wake me up when this one is over. Brady Quinn will lead the Browns to a second straight victory as Cleveland covers the three points. San Francisco 49ers at Dallas Cowboys: The Giants have played better since Mike Singletary took over as head coach a few weeks ago, but the Cowboys have figured out how to win and are playing with their backs against the walls. Tony Romo was solid while employing a short-pass game to complement Marion Barber's superior running game. The defense has been effective and the O-line is letting Romo and Barber have the room to do their thing. Romo will go downfield to Terrell Owens and Roy E. Williams more often. San Fran can't keep up with handing the ball to RB Frank Gore. Cowboys win and should cover the 10 points. Tampa Bay Bucaneers at Detroit Lions: Tampa is favoured by 8.5 and although Detroit is horrendous, the Bucs lack the offensive firepower to score the padding to cover. To beat the Lions by nine, TB's defense has to smother the Lions. Probably won't happen with newly acquired Daunte Culpepper providing a significant upgrade in play calling for Detroit. Really. Minnesota Vikings at Jacksonville Jaguars: Vikes are 1-4 on the road. Some like Minny because their defense is improving and they have the game-changer in RB Adrian Peterson. Others favour Minny because Jax QB David Garrard has completed just 17 of 46 passes and thrown four picks in his past two games. But the Jags won those two games. Jax is favoured by one. They win what should be a close, back-and-forth game. Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs: The Chiefs are exactly what the struggling Bills need to help turn things around, but it is always tough for opponents to win in Kansas City. Buffalo is favoured by three and that sounds right: Bills QB Trent Edwards seems to be regressing as the season progresses and the Chiefs like the development of Tyler Thigpen. New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins: At the beginning of the season, no one would have cared: the Pats, most people would have predicted, would win easily. But both teams are in a four-way race for perhaps two playoff spots from the AFC East. Dolphins scored five TDs -- actually Ronnie Brown scored five TDs -- to upset the Pats in week 2. But Matt Cassel has developed into a competent QB and the Pats defense has got their act together. New England is favoured by by 1, but they should win by more. Chicago Bears at St. Louis Rams: Will the Bears play a still-injured QB Kyle Orton again this week? Rex Grossman, Orton's replacement, against a miserable Rams team might be an even matchup. Still, I think they start Orton because they need wins to stay in the playoff hunt. Bears are favoured by 9.5 and that sounds like a lot considering the team's recent difficulty scoring. Chicago RB Matt Forte should rediscover his early season self and their defense should push around QB Marc Bulger and whoever he hands/passes the ball to. The Bears win but don't cover. New York Jets at Tennessee Titans: Jets are finally winning and letting Favre be Favre. But the Titans have a suffocating defense and QB Kerry Collins adapts quickly to opponents' defensive pressure: if they shut down the running game, Collins goes to the air; if they are playing a strong pass defense, he hands the ball off to RB Chris Johnson. Yet the Jets can make big plays with Brett Favre, although it would not be surprising to see the Titans sack him a half-dozen times and force several interceptions or fumbles. Titans win and cover the 5.5 by forcing Favre mistakes. Oakland Raiders at Denver Broncos: Raiders are trying to prove they are not as bad as they appear to be while the Broncos are trying to keep ahead of the sputtering San Diego Chargers. Jay Cutler returned to form last week, but the Broncs are still a flawed team. Their defense, as FoxSports' Peter Schrager says, "couldn't stop a middle school team." Still, beating Oakland is not much of a challenge, especially at home. (For a good article on how badly the Raiders are in disarray, read Michael Wagaman's Pro Football Weekly story.) Raiders haven't scored a TD in 13 quarters and have just 50 points in their last six games, but the Broncos defense should fix that. The question is whether the Broncs' well-balanced offense (now that Denver has overcome injuries to their backs) can put up the points. My guess is that they can and cover the 9.5. Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons: Falcons can stay in the NFC South race with a home win, but beating the Panthers, who have a superior defense, strong running game and a legit receiving threat in Steve Smith, is no easy task. Atlanta if favoured by one, but Carolina wins this one on the road. New York Giants at Arizona Cardinals: A likely preview of the NFC championship. Giants dominated a strong team beating the Ravens 30-10 last week. Arizona has an amazing aerial game with Kurt Warner searching out four legit targets. Watch for the G-men blitz the QB, providing a small window for Warner to find Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Goldin, neither of whom will be double-teamed. We'll have to see how much resting injured RB Brandon Jacobs for the game changes the Giants' game. New York is favoured by three but I'm predicting they fall to 9-2, losing in the stadium in which they won the Super Bowl last year. Washington Redskins at Seattle Seahawks: Skins QB Jason Campbell has had an awful two weeks, throwing his first four interceptions of the season, although a lot of that has to do with the offensive line not protecting him. Skins coach Jim Zorn was QB coach in Seattle and knows his opponents. A healthy Clinton Portis provides more offensive opportunities for Washington and the 'Hawks pass defense is pretty bad. Indeed, the Hawks are pretty bad down the line: they rank second last in offensive yardage and 28th in defensive yardage. Washington is favoured by three, but I won't be surprised to see them with a bigger win coming off back-to-back home losses. Indianapolis Colts at San Diego Chargers: Neither team has been as bad as they sometimes seem. The Bolts are 4-6 but three of their losses were close (and two controversial). The Colts had to deal with injuries but now seem to have things together, winning three in a row. Chargers QB Philip Rivers' pass game seems to be getting worse as the season progresses and their defense is missing Shawne Merriman more than anyone expected (their pass defense is ranked dead last). Yet, the Bolts are closer to turning their season around and finishing 500. Still, I like the roll the Colts -- or more precisely Peyton Manning -- are on. Manning in those three wins: 814 yards, 7 TDs, no picks. Bolts are favoured by three, but the Colts will continue their winning streak because San Diego's defense isn't going to stop Manning, RB Joseph Addai or receivers Reggie Wayne, Marvin Harrison and Anthony Gonzalez. Green Bay Packers at New Orleans Saints: What a match-up: the best pass offense (the Drew Brees-led Saints) against the third best pass defense. Packers have 16 picks on the year, six returned for scores. On the run-side of the game, the strong Packers ground game, led by Ryan Grant, faces the 19th-ranked run defense. That could be the difference as Green Bay uses the run game to keep Brees and his receivers off the field. The home team is favoured by three and Brees can make anything happen, but Green Bay will prevent the Saints from winning back-to-back games for the first time in '08. Wednesday, November 19, 2008
World Toilet Day Today is World Toilet Day, as declared by the WTO -- the World Toilet Organization. This isn't one of those useless UN-declared days where everyone acknowledges a problem or issue, makes platitudinous speeches and then goes on their merry lives. The WTO is committed to improving the lives of the approximately 2.6 billion people who have no toilets (and nearly half of those who have toilets do not have toilets as we in the West think of them, hooked up to sewers and such, but often temporary toilets where the 'waste' is collected and sometimes used as biogas). Here are 20 toilet facts, culled from Rose George's The Big Necessity: The Unmentionable World of Human Waste and Why it Matters: 1) The toilet was either invented 2000 or 500 years ago. 2) Readers of Focus magazine rated the toilet the best invention ever (over the wheel). 3) Thomas Crapper did not invent the toilet but rather improved the existing parts. 4) The problem of clean water in the developing world is inextricably linked to the lack of sanitation, as many communities use their water source for bathing, cooking and dumping waste. Nearly two million children die of causes related to the lack of clean water and sanitation. 5) It is estimated that universal global sanitation by 2015 would cost $95 billion. 6) It is estimated that 850,000 phones, most of them cell phones, are accidently flushed every year in the United Kingdom. 7) The WTO has set up the World Toilet College in Singapore and wants to create a peace prize for sanitation. 8) Jennifer Aniston used a body double to clean the toilet in the movie Friends with Money. 9) Japanese toilets are heated, wash the user's 'naughty bits' and remember the settings of its users. Their toilets are the most advanced today yet during World War II, the population used open pits for defecating. Public toilets in Japan make fake flushing sounds to drown out noiese the body makes whilst using the restroom. 10) In 2002, U.S. toilet maker American Standard had no PhDs in their research and development department but now that they face more serious competition from Japanese toilet makers, it has five. 11) Studies show that the lack of washrooms facilities is one of the leading reasons why girls do not stay in school in many parts of Africa -- there is no privacy to go, so they rather stay at home. UNICEF blames the lack of sanitation for one out of three girls in the sub-Sahara dropping out of school. Research has found that when schools installed decent latrines in Bangladesh, India and Tanzania, female enrollment grew 15%. 12) Although at one point in the 20th century, 90% of French homes had a bidet, today just 10% do. 13) Modern North American toilets that are taller because they are designed for older users, may impede the defecation process, leading to increases incidences of colon cancer, constipation and hemorrhoids. 14) The global toilet paper industry is worth $15-20 billion and the average American uses 57 sheets a day. 15) The average bowel movement weighs 250 grams. Each year, the average human produces 77 pounds of excrement and 132 gallons of urine. In the West, that requires 4,000 gallons of water to flush. 16) In China, human excrement is collected and used for fertilizer ('night soil'). In parts of India, it is saved and used for biogas, reducing reliance on electricity and lumber. 17) W.H. Auden allowed guests only one sheet of toilet paper per visit. 18) Most Chinese toilets, even public ones, do not have doors. 19) The London, England sewer system, built after 1858, used 318 million bricks and cost four million pounds (or six billion pounds in today's dollars). The system was created for three inhabitants. It is still used today -- for 13 million people. 20) U.S. toilets pull the water out of the bowl, European toilets push the water out. Addition by subtraction The Senate Republican improved their lot with news that the recount in Alaska has resulted in Senator Ted Stevens (R) losing the seat he has held since before I was born. Word that Stevens lost to Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich by about 3700 votes out of 315,000 votes cast came on the senator's 85th birthday. Happy birthday Senator! Stevens, who was convicted of seven counts of failing to report gifts just one week before election day, is the first Alaska senator to lose a re-election bid in a general election. The Democrats now have 58 senators (including two 'independents' who caucus with them) with two more races still to be decided. Conservatives are useless P.J. O'Rourke has an awful but truthful thing to say in last week's Weekly Standard about the Republican victories over the past 28 years: conservatives don't have much to show for their time in power. Sure, sure, I know that the Republican Party and the conservative movement aren't the same thing, but Republican administrations have used conservative policy wonks, conservative strategists, conservative pundits (and vice versa), so equating the two is mostly valid. If conservatives couldn't get the job done -- or even part of the job done -- while their party was in power for the better part of three decades, perhaps it is time for a brutally honest assessment. O'Rourke provides one: "An entire generation has been born, grown up, and had families of its own since Ronald Reagan was elected. And where is the world we promised these children of the Conservative Age? Where is this land of freedom and responsibility, knowledge, opportunity, accomplishment, honor, truth, trust, and one boring hour each week spent in itchy clothes at church, synagogue, or mosque? It lies in ruins at our feet, as well it might, since we ourselves kicked the shining city upon a hill into dust and rubble." Of course, politics is just one part of the equation. There is also the news media, popular entertainment, universities, liberal churches, corporations that pander to politically correct pieties and professional organizations that have been taken hostage by them. Still, politics does matter and conservatives haven't used the bully-pulpit of the presidency and control of Congress (for some of that time) very well: "We've had nearly three decades to educate the electorate about freedom, responsibility, and the evils of collectivism, and we responded by creating a big-city-public-school-system of a learning environment." After 20 years of Republican rule and eight of a centrist Democrat, "Government is bigger than ever." O'Rourke condemns conservatives for failing to come up with a coherent foreign policy, adequately defending free markets, or protecting the unborn. There is more to conservatism that reducing tax rates. For crying out loud, P.J. O'Rourke is saying that conservatism has to be about more than cutting taxes. But even there, the record is spotty: "[W]e got a few tax breaks during the regimes of Reagan and W. But the government is still taking a third of our salary." When will the conduit for conservative politics -- the Republicans -- learn? Probably never. I should add something to O'Rourke's comments about abortion. He says: "If the citizenry insists that abortion remain legal -- and, in a passive and conflicted way, the citizenry seems to be doing so -- then give the issue a rest. Meanwhile we can, with the public's blessing, refuse to spend taxpayers' money on killing, circumscribe the timing and method of taking a human life, make sure parental consent is obtained when underage girls are involved, and tar and feather teenage boys and run them out of town on a rail." Abortion would be one of those issues, that no matter how politically unpalatable, is too important to throw over the side of the boat for sake of political victory. So giving the issue 'a rest' isn't -- pardon the expression -- a choice. But O'Rourke is right to say that a change in tactics, namely focusing on incremental change that will reduce abortion, is in order. Paradoxically (to some) by becoming humble in our goals, pro-lifers can get closer to their ultimate goal (of no abortion). The incremental changes suggested by O'Rourke will have the effect of re-energizing the abortion debate by changing the goal posts. By making some abortions unacceptable and unthinkable (by type or timing), it will be easier to convince the public that other abortions are wrong, too. The law is a teacher. For nearly three decades, conservatives in their hostility to government forgot that. And now they may spend a long time on the outside of government watching what liberal lessons the state will provide under far-left Democrat rule. This is a few weeks old but definitely post-worthy The Daily Telegraph reported on October 31st: "A vicar attended hospital with a potato stuck up his bottom - and claimed it got there after he fell on to the vegetable while naked. The clergyman, in his 50s, told nurses he had been hanging curtains when he fell backwards on to his kitchen table. He happened to be nude at the time of the mishap, said the vicar, who insisted he had not been playing a sex game. The vicar had to undergo a delicate operation to extract the vegetable, one of a range of odd items medics in Sheffield have had to remove from people's backsides or genitals. Others include a can of deodorant, a cucumber, a Russian doll – and a carnation." Tuesday, November 18, 2008
What I'm reading 1. The Big Necessity: The Unmentionable World of Human Waste and Why it Matters by Rose George. A very interesting and serious book. 2. The Decline and Fall of The British Empire 1781-1997 by Piers Brendon 3. "Foreign Aid Goes Military!", William Easterly's New York Review of Books review of Paul Collier's The Bottom Billion: Why the Poorest Countries Are Failing and What Can Be Done About It. 4. The seven-part story on the U.S. election, from primaries through election day, in last week's Newsweek. Parts One ("Barack Obama: How He Did It"), Two ("John McCain: Back From the Dead?"), Three ("The Long Clinton-Obama Siege"), Four ("McCain Camp Retools, Targets Obama"), Five ("Obama Sweats the Clintons, McCain Gambles on Palin"), Six ("Battling it Out in the Great Debates"), Seven ("The Final Days"). 5. With pirates in the news, I've been moved to read "All at Sea Over Pirates," by Michael Burleigh in the November Standpoint. Of a more a more academic bent there is "An-arrgh-chy: The Law and Economics of Pirate Organization," an article in the Journal of Political Economy by Peter T. Leeson. And Leeson's "The Invisible Hook: The Law and Economics of Pirate Tolerance," in a forthcoming New York University Journal of Law and Liberty. Frum's last good idea David Frum has left National Review but before doing so he presented a good idea: "[H]ere's a very practical immediate suggestion for Republicans: How about a law forbidding campaign contributions by officials of companies in which the federal government holds an ownership stake? Otherwise, banks will be giving massive amounts of money to politicians who have given even more massive sums to the banks. A Democratic Congress may refuse to adopt such a measure, but even opening a conversation on the topic may inhibit the most egregious extraction of funds..." Fire Joe Morgan shuts down A very good baseball blog, Fire Joe Morgan, announced it will cease publishing. As one of the co-authors tells DeadSpin: "Shockingly, pseudo-sabermetric baseball journalism metacriticism may not be an infinitely sustainable comedy premise." FJM will be missed. China's gruesome harvest The Weekly Standard has a must-read article on the organ harvesting industry in Red China. The article begins with the treatment of the Falun Gong, a religious group persecuted by Beijing and often targeted for forced organ removal in China's vast prison system. But it isn't only Falun Gong members whose organs are systemically harvested: "Harry Wu, a Chinese dissident who established the Laogai Foundation, had already produced reams of evidence that the state, after executing criminals formally sentenced to death, was selling their kidneys, livers, corneas, and other body parts to Chinese and foreigners, anyone who could pay the price. The practice started in the mid-1980s. By the mid-1990s, with the use of anti-tissue-rejection drugs pioneered by China, the business had progressed. Mobile organ-harvesting vans run by the armed services were routinely parked just outside the killing grounds to ensure that the military hospitals got first pick. This wasn't top secret. I spoke with a former Chinese police officer, a simple man from the countryside, who said that, as a favor to a condemned man's friend, he had popped open the back of such a van and unzipped the body bag. The corpse's chest had been picked clean." What are the chances this is going to happen? Mona Charen in symposium at NRO: "Liberals tend to like the poor, homosexuals, women, and minorities while holding other groups in contempt. If Barack Obama is sincere in wanting 'one America' then he has a duty to reign in his party’s tendency to treat people as subgroups, as hyphens, rather than as individuals." ASG revisited Denver Broncos 24, Atlanta Falcons 20: I thought Falcons would win a close one. Got it backwards. Carolina Panthers 31, Detroit Lions 22: I thought the Panthers would cover the 14 points, but the Lions played well (Daunte Culpepper had a decent game and just missed a dive into the end zone that could have changed the complexion of the game in the final quarter). But Culpepper's two picks and the Panthers running game were too much for a Lions team working hard to avoid an 0-16 season. Jonathan Stewart and DeAngelo Williams had 130 and 120 yards respectively and combined for three TDs. QB Jake Delhomme threw for less than 100 yards. Philadelphia Eagles 13, Cincinnati Bengals 13 (OT): The Eagles were favoured and I expected them to cover the nine points, but Philly continues to find ways to disappoint their fans. QB Donovan McNabb completed fewer than half of his passes (28 of 58) and had three interceptions. It is stunning that a team capable of stifling blitzing defenses and big passes only tied the 1-8 Bengals, even while out-sacking them 8-2. New Orleans Saints 30, Kansas City Chiefs 20: I thought the Chiefs were going to upset the Saints. But Saints QB Drew Brees was Drew Brees, throwing to six different Saints for at least 12 yard. In terms of total yards, time of possession and turnovers, the game was remarkably close, but after the first quarter, the Saints were in control. New York Giants 30, Baltimore Ravens 10: Giants were favoured by a TD, but I thought the superior Ravens defense would keep it close. The Ravens defense didn't show up. G-Men led 20-3 at the half and never looked back. The thunder and lightning combination of Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw combined for 169 running yards and Jacobs had a pair of TDs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 19, Minnesota Vikings 13: Predicted the Bucs by four. Close. Bucs had 13 unanswered second half points and Vikes had only 210 net yards. Miami Dolphins 17, Oakland Raiders 15: I predicted Miami would cover the 10.5 point spread. It wasn't pretty: Oakland had 186 net yards and converted just 2 of 11 third downs. Yet they scored 10 fourth quarter points to make it close. Green Bay Packers 37, Chicago Bears 3: I said, "this one is a coin flip. I'll take the Packers by three." Oops. Green Bay outplayed Chicago in almost every aspect of the game. Packers run game was magnificent (led by Ryan Grant and his 145 yards) while their defense kept the Bears in check. Bears offense was hampered by the immobility of injured QB Kyle Orton. Indianapolis Colts 33, Houston Texans 27: I thought Indy would cover the nine points. Peyton Manning was great: 30 of 46 for 320 yards and 2 TDs, but he was never really pressured and wasn't sacked once. San Francisco 49ers 35, St. Louis Rams 16: I said the "Rams should be easy pickings" and they were despite 406 net yards (72 more than San Fran) and having possession for the majority of the game. The difference: four turnovers. Niners had two of their own, so I'm not sure how they won by 19 points. St. Louis is a special kind of awful. Arizona Cardinals 26, Seattle Seahawks 20: Correctly predicted Cards would cover the three points. Cards QB Kurt Warner continues to make a case for MVP: 32 passes in 44 attempts, for 395 yards and a TD. Teams combined for seven turnovers. Tennessee Titans 24, Jacksonville Jaguars 14: When so many football pundits were predicting an upset for the hometeam, I predicted the Titans covering the three point spread. Jax went into halftime leading 14-3 but Titans always seem to step it up a notch when they must. For second week in a row, Titans QB Kerry Collins had an excellent air game, throwing three touchdowns, two to Justin Gage who had 147 yards. Pittsburgh Steelers 11, San Diego Chargers 10: There has never been an 11-10 game in the history of the NFL (nearly 12,900 games). Steelers didn't get a TD. With no time left, the Steelers recovered a fumble and scored but it was negated because the fumble came after a flag for a forward pass as the Bolts desperately attempted to get the ball upfield. I predicted the "Steelers win but don't cover the 4.5 spread." Right on. Ben Roesthlisberger had a great game employing short passes and the Steeler defense was stellar. So was the Chargers'. Dallas Cowboys 14, Washington Redskins 10: Correctly predicted Dallas would win on the road. It was 10-7 for most of the game. Boys QB Tony Romo seemed a little off in his throws returning from a pinky finger injury and he had two interceptions. On the plus side, the O-line provided enough protection and Romo wasn't sacked even once. RB Marion Barber might be the most reliable runner in the league. Cleveland Browns 29, Buffalo Bills 27: I thought Buffalo would win a close one. Got it backwards. Bills QB Trent Edwards had three first quarter interceptions. Marshawn Lynch had a great game as he was the Bills top rusher and receiver. In only his second start, Brady Quinn wasn't that great for the Browns, completing just 14 of 36 passes, but he took lots of chances, spread around the offense with short and deep passes and spread the Bills' defense thin. It was an exciting back and forth game with a total of 27 fourth quarter points. Phil Dawson scored a 56 yard field goal with under two minutes to play to give the Browns the lead and a minute later Bills kicker Rian Lindell missed a 47 yard field goal by inches. Monday, November 17, 2008
GM needs bankruptcy not bailout Richard Posner on the plus side of allowing General Motors (and presumably other big U.S. automakers) to fail: "Bankruptcy may also force out the current management of GM and Ford. I do not know for certain whether they have competent management- GM surely did not have top management for much of its recent history. I do believe, however, that when a coach of a team loses a few games, he might legitimately explain that by injuries, bad luck, or even bad officiating. These excuses become lame when he consistently loses many games, and the correct and common practice is then to fire the coach. The same considerations apply to top management. When a company consistently does badly while some of its competitors (like Toyota) are doing well, its time to fire the management team, and see if another team can do better." Partisanship is not racism Michelle Cottle at The Plank: "Do I think there are an embarrassing number of ass-backward racists in this country? You betcha. But I also believe that much of even the racially tinged invective currently being spewed in the wake of Obama's win isn't about racial animus so much as rabid partisanship." Eric Cantor on the GOP "[W]e have lacked the ability to be relevant to people's lives." Whole story about the Jewish Republican Congressman at the Washington Times. Not so long ago? Jason Kottke notes: "Listening to Michael Jackson's Thriller today is equivalent to listening to Elvis Presley's first album (1956) at the time of Thriller's release in 1982... Watching Star Wars today is like watching It's a Wonderful Life (1946) in 1977. It's a Wonderful Life was nominated for an Oscar the following year along with Ethel Barrymore (b. 1879) and Lilian Gish (b. 1893). Listening to Nirvana's Smells Like Teen Spirit today is equivalent to playing Terry Jack's Seasons In The Sun (1974) in 1991. Watching The Godfather today is like watching Charlie Chaplin's Modern Times (1936) in 1972. Modern Times was a silent film (Chaplin's last)." As one commenter said: "I'm 46 with a 16 year old daughter. Even though the distance between her music (Fall Out Boy etc) and the music of my youth (Talking Heads, Ramones, Joy Division etc) seems like a walk across the street to me, for her it must seem like the Grand Canyon." The post focuses on the entertainment touchstones of our youth, but here is a political perspective for those of certain generation: the 1960 election of John F. Kennedy and references to the famous JFK-Nixon debate is as far removed from us today as the 1912 race (Republican William Howard Taft, Democrat Woodrow Wilson and Bull Moose Teddy Roosevelt) was to the 1960 JFK election. Sunday, November 16, 2008
Frank words from Republicans Senator Richard Shelby (Alabama) on the Big Three U.S. automakers: "They don’t innovate. They’re a dinosaur in a sense." Senator Jon Kyl (Arizona) on the idea of a bailout for the Big Three: "Just giving them $25 billion doesn’t change anything. It just puts off for six months or so the day of reckoning." The whole AP story can be read here. The implicit point is that Republicans probably don't want to appear to do nothing for an industry so important in the industrial Midwest and thus just throw away a vote-rich region that swings between the two parties. For the next few years we will see the battle between principle (the truthfulness of Shelby and Kyl) and practical politics (dumping principles over the side quicker than you can say Michigan or Ohio) as the Republicans try to find themselves. Glacial progress must be ... actually, you know ... rightward Publius at Gods of the Copybook Headings on the Conservative government in Ottawa: "Incrementalism is a fine thing, but it implies you're moving in a certain direction." As such, he doesn't think much of the policy passed at the Tories policy confab in Winnipeg: "Some rather deluded souls are pushing for the Conservative Party to officially adopt a policy to curb the HRCs. If you seriously believe the party executive, to say nothing of the PMO, is going to allow so controversial an idea to be entered into the Tory platform, please e-mail me. I've got some great real estate opportunities on Baffin Island. The convention in Winnipeg did adopt the resolution, but it ain't going anywhere. The suggestion here isn't incrementalism, it's pragmatism, something far worse. The former implies a slow and continuous effort to convince a critical mass of the Canadian people that less government is a good thing. Pragmatism is the exact opposite. A pragmatist would never risk current popularity for a long-range value, like freedom of speech." The left against democracy J.G. Thayer has an excellent post at Contentions on Democrats opposed to democracy, from union certification to the war against those who favour traditional marriage to the questionable tactics employed to try to get Al Franken elected Minnesota senator. Definitely worth reading. Bailoutistan That Mark Steyn's description of America in 2008. David Brooks had an excellent column on Friday in the New York Times on why Washington should not bailout the U.S. auto industry. His argument is summarized in this paragraph: "In short, a bailout will not solve anything — just postpone things. If this goes through, Big Three executives will make decisions knowing that whatever happens, Uncle Sam will bail them out — just like Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. In the meantime, capital that could have gone to successful companies and programs will be directed toward companies with a history of using it badly." Brooks also makes the important distinction between historic U.S. practise (programs that help workers "survive the vicissitudes of this creative destruction") and the new massive, widespread bailouts (that protect business elites from this mistakes). Saturday, November 15, 2008
Any given Sunday  Denver Broncos at Atlanta Falcons: Injury woes add to the problems for the Broncs at defense, which has been awful all year. Falcons haven't lost at home this season (4-0), although the Broncs are 3-0 all-time against the Falcons in Atlanta. QB Matt Ryan has a 125.2 rating at home and the Falcons have scored at least 34 points in three of their four home games. The O-line is strong and RB Michael Turner should feast on Denver's weak run defense. Atlanta is favoured by six, but with Denver QB Jay Cutler throwing to Eddie Royal, Brandon Marshall and Tatum Bell on the Georgia turf, the game should be closer. Detroit Lions at Carolina Panthers: Daunte Culpepper might be an upgrade over the Lions woeful play callers but in his second game as Lions QB he is still getting use to the system and the rest of the team is getting use to him. Panthers QB Jake Delhomme had a bad week last Sunday, throwing four picks and completing just 7 of 27 passes. Panthers should rebound, especially with RBs Jonathan Stewart and DeAngelo Williams having the opportunity to run against the Lions' pathetic run defense. Still, it is hard to favour the Panthers by 14 with injuries to their O-line, including Ryan Kalil. Panthers defense has kept opponents to single digit scoring in four of their last six games. Panthers win and cover. Philadelphia Eagles at Cincinnati Bengals: Two weeks after their first win and one week after their bye (with the extra time to prepare) Cincy has high hopes facing the struggling Eagles. Philly needs the win and will ratchet it up a notch to stay in the playoff race. Donovan McNabb is so much stronger when he isn't pressured and the Bengals defense doesn't pressure opposing QBs. Eagles are favoured by 9 and they should cover. New Orleans Saints at Kansas City Chiefs: The Chiefs have lost their last three games by a total of just eight points. Backup QB Tyler Thigpen hasn't thrown an interception in those three games. The Saints have been uneven all season, even though QB Drew Brees has been an offense machine. In last week's loss to the Atlanta Falcons Brees threw 31 passes (in 58 attempts) for 422 yards and 2 TDs (against three interceptions). KC is hard to beat at home and the Saints are 0-4 on the road. New Orleans are favoured but the Chiefs will win for only the second time since October 21, 2007. Baltimore Ravens at New York Giants: Ravens have combined a great defense with an offense that has gotten better as rookie QB Joe Flacco matures (averaging better than 30 points per game over their past four). The Giants are as complete a team as there is in the NFL. QB Eli Manning will be prone to making mistakes when pressured by the Ravens D. Giants are favoured by 6.5, but the Ravens keep it closer. Minnesota Vikings at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Last week Adrian Peterson ran 192 yards against the Packers for the Vikes. The Bucs won't have their best runner available with Earnest Graham out of action. Vikes QB Gus Frerotte has proven a definite step up from Tavaris Jackson, but Tampa is tough to beat at home and Minny is only 1-3 on the road. Tampa is favoured by four; sounds right. Oakland Raiders at Miami Dolphins: The comprehensively awful Raiders against the surprisingly good Dolphins in Miami. Easy pick: Fins win and cover the 10.5 spread. Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers: Bears won't know who starts at QB with Kyle Orton being a game-day decision. RB Matt Forte could feast on Green Bay's mediocre run defense. Bears have won four straight at Lambeau Field and Green Bay's defense is smarting from the loss of MLB Nick Barnett. The offensive line hasn't been protecting QB Aaron Rodgers, but he is facing a weak passing defense. Packers are favoured by 3.5, but this one is a coin flip. I'll take the Packers by three. Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts: After a sluggish start, the Colts are healthy and ready to roll. Houston has lost two in a row and Indy has won two in a row (against tough opponents, the Patriots and Steelers). Colts are desperate for wins to stay in the wild card race and QB Peyton Manning seems best when the pressure is on. When the Texans and Colts met earlier this year, he lifted the team on his shoulders leading a 21-point fourth quarter comeback. Texans QB Sage Rosenfels is an inconsistent game caller and WR Andre Johnson has had a poor November after a red-hot October. Colts run defense has been getting much better. Indy wins and covers the nine points. St. Louis Rams at San Francisco 49ers: A pair of 2-7 teams face off and its going to be ugly. Could be a wild one or a low scoring affair. But with the Niners at home, you gotta give them the nod, even covering the six point spread. After all, San Fran nearly upset the vastly superior Arizona Cardinals on Monday Night, so the Rams should be easy pickin's. Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks: High-flying Cards, led by QB Kurt Warner, should easily beat the 'Hawks, even if QB Matt Hasselbeck is expected to return. Hawks have allowed opponents to make big plays and to successfully convert third downs, and Warner will exploit those weaknesses. Cards are favoured by three and even though they have a one-dimensional team (passing, passing and more passing) they'll cover. If the Cards win, they'll be perfect on the road against division rivals. Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars: The 9-0 Titans against a struggling but resurgent Jags battling for a wild card in Jacksonville makes for a great game. Jax needs a balanced offense to make it close and their defense must stop the Titans running game to force QB Kerry Collins to go to the air. Jacksonville is getting healthy, know their opponents and won in Detroit by a convincing 38-14 last week, but the Titans are a superb team. If any defense is going to get to Jax QB David Garrard (one interception in six games), it will be the Titans. Tennessee covers the three point spread. San Diego Chargers at Pittsburgh Steelers: The Bolts are getting better, QB Philip Rivers is having an outstanding season and Steelers' QB Ben Roesthlisberger has thrown eight picks in three games. But the Chargers defense is still in shambles and RB LaDainian Tomlinson is not having his usual great running season; he won't find it this week against the Steelers' superior run defense. Steelers win but don't cover the 4.5 spread. Dallas Cowboys at Washington Redskins: The Boys are getting healthy, with a pair of vital pieces, QB Tony Romo and TE Jason Witten, returning. Romo will have two superior targets in WRs Terrell Owens and Roy Williams, but he is working behind a leaky offensive line. Skins will be probably be without MVP candidate RB Clinton Portis, thus putting more pressure on QB Jason Campbell who threw three interceptions in his last game after not giving up a pick in the previous eight games. Both teams had the extra week off to prepare, and in the case of the Boys, healthy. Cowboys are favoured by 1.5. Sounds right even if a road victory -- in Washington -- sounds odd. Cleveland Browns at Buffalo Bills: After a fast start, the Bills have dropped three in a row. After a 3-1 spell, the Browns has lost consecutive games, allowing 34 points or more in each of them. Browns QB Brady Quinn will start only his second game this year, and although he was steady last week against the Broncos he was kept on a short leash. RB Jamal Lewis will exploit the weak edges of the Bills defense. Bills QB Trent Edwards will need to rack up yards against the pathetic Browns defense. Bills should win at home but won't cover the five point spread. Thursday, November 06, 2008
Wednesday, November 05, 2008
Any given Sunday Because I'm in a hurry, these are quick hit predictions. Denver Broncos at Cleveland Browns: First Thursday night game since opening week. Newbie QB Brady Quinn should be a step up from Derek Anderson and Cleveland's defense shuts down the recently anemic Denver offense. New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons: Drew Brees' arm defeats the Falcons, who keep it close for most of the game. Tennessee Titans at Chicago Bears: Great defenses but with Rex Grossman QBing for the Bears, the visitors win. Jacksonville Jaguars at Detroit Lions: Jax should win. But they should have won againt the Bengals, too. Still will newly signed QB Daunte Culpepper be the man to lead Detroit to its first victory. No. Baltimore Ravens at Houston Texans: No Matt Schaub, no win. Ravens victorious on the road. Seattle Seahawks at Miami Dolphins: Surprisingly bad Seahawks against the surprisingly good Dolphins in Miami. Easy pick but not the pick anyone would have made before the season started. Dolphins victorious, probably by more than a TD. Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings: Vikes play the type of defense that Aaron Rodgers picks apart. Packers win. Buffalo Bill at New England Patriots: All of sudden the Bills show serious flaws in their game and second-year QB Trent Edwards is looking like a sophomore for the first time this season. St. Louis Rams at New York Jets: The Jets don't win pretty but they are still winning. They'll do so again this weekend. Carolina Panthers at Oakland Raiders: Panthers are a team on the rise. Raiders are pathetic. Panthers win by 10 -- or a lot more. Indianapolis Colts at Pittsburgh Steelers: Both teams are getting key players back although QB Ben Roethlisberger is a question mark for Steelers. Doesn't matter: Pittsburgh D stops Peyton Manning in what should be an excellent game. Kansas City Chiefs at San Diego Chargers: Bolts are on the rise and ready for a great second half during which they get to pick on weaker division rivals, beginning with the Chiefs. New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles: Both teams are capable of great things or being merely pretty darn good. Flip a coin. I flipped a coin, it came up Giants. Maybe I should flip again ... San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals: Cards have a great airborne game and their defense stops opponents' running game. Cards win by at least nine. Tuesday, November 04, 2008
William Tucker is right Let Barack Obama govern. As William Tucker writes in The American Spectator Online, "conservatives should stand by the election without carping about skullduggery or fraud." That means drop the birth certificate thing. Tucker provides an outline on how conservatives should behave: don't blame John McCain, admit that an Obama presidency won't be all bad, focus on policy, and bide their time because the pendulum will swing the other way. Or, as I like to remind people, it is only an election. The irrationality of voting explained Again, but this time in a video. Gordon Tullock, a colleague of and co-author with James M. Buchanan and who provides the basis for most of the video, wrote one of the greatest books on politics, The Vote Motive; it is not so much about voting as the political process and the incentives each actor has in the political process. September issue of The Interim is up The September issue is now online. A lot of it is news and is dated now. There is our coverage of the U.S. presidential candidates' positions on life issues concludes, "McCain isn’t perfect, but Obama will be the ‘abortion president’." Relatedly, Rory Leishman wonders in what sense is Barack Obama a 'Christian'? Of interest, however, are two pieces on Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn -- my editor's desk column looking at his life and editorial on what his life meant. Our editorial on a policy by the College of Physicians and Surgeons of Ontario that would force them to ignore their own conscience to abide the CPSO's guess of what future human rights commission complaints might be. The background story is here in the same issue. Russ Kuykendall looks at what real education tends to. Revised election prediction Electoral vote: Barack Obama - 366 John McCain - 172 What I was predicting on Sunday: Obama: 340 McCain: 198 Popular vote: Obama: 51.4% McCain: 46.2% Others: 2.4% Battleground states: Obama: Colorado, North Carolina, Virginia, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Missouri, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico, New Hampshire, Michigan, Minnesota, Georgia*, Indiana* McCain: Florida, West Virginia, North Dakota * I moved Indiana and Georgia to Obama. House of Representatives: Republicans lose 23-26 seats. What I predicted a week ago: Republicans lose 14-19 Congressional seats. Senate: Republicans lose eight Senate seats: Alaska Colorado Mississippi New Mexico* New Hampshire North Carolina Oregon Virginia * I had Kentucky switching columns, but I now have Republican Mitch McConnell keeping his seat. But I will move New Mexico into the Democratic side. Other calls: Republican Norm Coleman beats Democrat Al Franken in Minnesota to keep his Senate seat. Republican Saxby Chambliss retains his Georgia Senate seat, although he might need a run-off. North Carolina Democrat Beverly Perdue beats Republican Pat McCrory in that state's gubernatorial race. With Matt Blunt not running for re-election in Missouri, Democrat Jay Nixon wins the gubernatorial race there. Democrat Christine Gregoire wins re-election in the Washington gubernatorial race in a rematch against Dino Rossi. Republican Congressman Chris Shays will lose the 4th CD in Connecticut -- the last GOP House seat in New England. I hate to say I disagree with Steyn but... I'm not sure this is true: "If this is to be a losing year, so be it. It’s still better to lose 51-49 than 59-41." But Mark Steyn's larger point in a post in The Corner about ignore the exit polls is generally worth heeding. AGS revisited New York Jets 26, Buffalo Bills 17: This was a close game: 297 yards of total offense for the Jets, 292 yards for the Bills; 30:04 minutes of possession for Buffalo, 29:56 for New York. Big difference was three turnovers by the Bills, including an interception returned for a TD in the fourth as part of a 10-0 run that put the game out of reach. Brett Favre threw his 300 career interception. I predicted the Bills would win at home. Chicago Bears 27, Detroit Lions 23: Lions scored 23 in the second quarter but the Bears scored 14 in the second half for the comeback win. Bears QB Kyle Orton injured his ankle and may be out for a month. Normally awful Rex Grossman had a solid second half replacing him: nine completions in 19 tries for 58 yards and a TD. Bears won but didn't cover the 13 points. Cincinnati Bengals 21, Jacksonville Jaguars 19: The Bengals are winless no more. Chad Johnson/Ocho Cinco had a good game after a sluggish start: doubling his TD total to four, on five receptions for 37 yards. Ryan Fitzpatrick was fine: 21/31, 162 yards, 2 TDs. Jax scored 16 points in the fourth quarter to almost make the come back. I predicted Jax would win by more than a TD. Baltimore Ravens 37, Cleveland Browns 27: Cleveland had a 27-13 lead until the final five minutes of the third quarter. Ravens scored 24 unanswered points, during which the Browns had five possessions in which Cleveland QB Derek Anderson produced four three-and-outs and an interception. In those five possessions, Anderson led the offense to a total of 22 yards gained. It is no surprise that Brady Quinn has been announced as the starting QB for the Browns next week against Denver. I predicted the Browns would win. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 30, Kansas City Chiefs 27: I predicted the Bucs would win by nine or more, but Tampa Bay needed to outscore the Chiefs 14-3 in the fourth to tie the game and force the overtime where they got the field goal for the win. Bucs had four turnovers (three on fumbles). Bucs RB Earnest Graham threw three yards for a TD. Chiefs QB Tyler Thigpen received a 37-yard pass from receiver Mark Bradley for a TD. Strange game. Minnesota Vikings 28, Houston Texans 21: Texans had three turnovers, including two interceptions. Some might blame the Texans' loss on starter Matt Schaub going down with an injury (torn MCL), but Houston's backup QB Sage Rosenfels had a good game: 21/29, 224 yards, 2 TDs. Houston is 0-4 on the road this year. I was right to say Minny would win, but I doubted their ability to cover the 4.5 spread. Arizona Cardinals 34, St. Louis Rams 13: Arizona is a high scoring team with Kurt Warner having 23 passes on 34 tries, 342 yards and 2 TDs and RB Tim Hightower having 109 yards on 22 plays, and a TD. Cards had 510 total net yards of offense. Arizona, who can't normally win on the road, have won four consecutive games in St. Louis, were they played until 1988. Cards cover the three point spread. Tennessee Titans 19, Green Bay Packers 16: I thought the Packers would upset coming off their bye-week and Tennessee playing with the short week following a Monday Night Football game. Each team had a single TD (both in the second quarter) and the Titans needed overtime to win. Miami Dolphins 26, Denver Broncos 17: The Broncos, whose high-flying offense led to a 3-0 start, has been figured out by opponents. In the first three games, they scored at least 34 points in each game, but haven't broken 20 points in the past five games. The 4-4 Dolphins look very good and the 4-4 Broncos don't. I predicted the Fins would pull off the upset in Denver. New York Giants 35, Dallas Cowboys 14: I didn't think the Giants would beat the nine point spread. The Giants are that good and the Cowboys look like a team in disarray. Dallas QBs Brad Johnson and Brooks Bollinger combined for three picks (Bollinger on his first pass attempt) and were a miserable 14 for 27 passing. Atlanta Falcons 24, Oakland Raiders 0: It is hard to be as bad as Oakland was. Not only were they shutout at home, but they had just 77 net yards of offense, never made a first down and had possession of the ball for less than 15 minutes of the game. I correctly predicted the Falcons would win and cover the three points. Philadelphia Eagles 26, Seattle Seahawks 7: I thought the Eagles would win but not beat the seven point spread. Oops. At the end of the first quarter, backup 'Hawks QB Seneca Wallace threw to Koren Robinson for a 90-yard TD. That was it for Seattle. Eagles QB Donvoan McNabb was 28 of 43 for 349 yards and a pair of TDs. He threw to backup TE Brent Celek six times for 131 yards. Indianapolis Colts 18, New England Patriots 15: A really great game with balanced offenses on both sides. Colts scored the game-winning field goal with three-and-a-half minutes left in the game. The Pats made some serious mistakes that cost them the game: QB Matt Cassel is too conservative (disproportionate number of his passes are under 10 yards) and he didn't even attempt a pass to WR Randy Moss in the first half; head coach Bill Belichick made some strange decisions on challenges and timeouts early in the second half, that forced the Pats to come up with the big play in the closing minute of the game; WR Jabar Gaffney dropped a long pass near the end of the third quarter that he probably would have ran into the end zone had he not fumbled it; TE David Thomas drew a 15-yard penalty that drew the Pats out of field goal range in the final five minutes. A thrilling game that has Indy back in the playoff hunt, especially with SS Bob Sanders (who was all over the receivers) and RB Joseph Addai (17 carries) back from injuries. I thought the Pats would win and it looked possible for most of this exciting game. Pittsburgh Steelers 23, Washington Redskins 6: One of the best games all year, with the score not being indicative of how close this contest was 224 total net yards of offense for the visiting Steelers, 221 for the Skins; 30:43 minutes of possession for Pittsburgh compared to 29:17 for Washington. The difference was the defense, and the Steelers have the best D in the NFL, not allowing a touchdown this game, sacking Skins QB Jason Campbell seven times (a career high) and taking the first interception in 14 games from Washington (then getting another). Ben Roethlisberger (5 for 17, 50 yards) left at the half, supposedly with a shoulder injury and back QB Byron Leftwich (7/10, 129 yards, TD) provided a steady hand during the second half. I thought the Skins would win, but obviously I underestimated Pittsburgh's defense. Monday, November 03, 2008
Huh?  Virginia Heffernan writes about Kindle in the New York Times Magazine this past weekend: "As an electronic device, it should be said, the Kindle is a complete bust. We all know what to look for now in consumer electronics, thanks (largely) to Steve Jobs, who with his Macs and iPods made high-design commodities of such extreme tactile pleasures that users have long reported desires to chew them, lick them, even copulate with them. No such urge possesses the Kindle user, who maintains a more formal relationship with his device, no matter how open-minded and forward-thinking he privately feels in owning one." Lick one's Kindle? And copulate with it? Obvious but not obvious Michael Porter has a lengthy article in the current Business Week entitled "Why America Needs an Economic Strategy." I'm not entirely convinced -- I'm generally against government strategies and priorities -- but I think this sentence is obviously true: "America underregulates in some areas while it overregulates in others." The problem is figuring what to regulate and how much. About that question, I fear few people, if anyone, knows the answer. NRLC book on Obama's abortion extremism The National Right to Life Committee has published an ebook on Barack Obama's limitless support of abortion. McCain's Ohio/Pennsylvania strategy Jay Cost at the HorseRaceBlog looks at John McCain and Sarah Palin's multiple trips to Ohio and Pennsylvania: "So, what's the bottom line? Again, time and money are scarce resources. Candidates allocate them according to what they believe is the best strategy to win 270 Electors. That McCain-Palin has essentially planted itself in Ohio and Pennsylvania is an indication that it thinks its time is of good use here. Combine that with its enhanced advertising buys in these two states, and we can conclude that Ohio and Pennsylvania are crucial components of its electoral strategy." That doesn't mean that they are winnable, only that they are the most winnable of the states most likely to get the Republicans to 270. But if in winning Ohio and Pennsylvania they lose Iowa, Colorado, New Mexico, New Hampshire, Virginia and Indiana (or Florida), it doesn't really matter. On Astaire  Stefan Kanfer reviews Joseph Epstein's biography Fred Astaire and includes this quote from the book: "What Fred Astaire did was elevate the entertainment of popular dance into an art; and he did it by dint of superior taste and sublime style, and while at it he also established that it was possible to bring a touch of the aristocrat to a thoroughly democratic society." Catholics must oppose Barack Obama From Catholic Insight -- with bonus shot against the Toronto Star: "Tears ran down the cheeks of the Toronto Star’s Bob Hepburn when he pleaded with the newspaper’s readers to start praying for the U.S. presidential election victory of Barack Hussein Obama on November 4 ('A Canadian prayer for Obama,' Oct. 30). It was strange seeing a newspaper as liberal as the Star urging prayer. Hepburn told us that 'many Canadians have been praying for Obama.' Well, we are not among them. The election of Obama as president would turn out to be a disaster. On the most important issues of all, the equality and dignity of all human beings, he represents the greatest threat ever, even more so than the notorious Bill Clinton. Obama serves as an idol for ruthless feminists in the world who seek to exterminate our future by exterminating our preborn." Sunday, November 02, 2008
NFL season -- First-half report, Part II (AFC) AFC North: New England Patriots: All bets were off once Tom Brady went down with a season-ending knee injury in the first quarter of the first game of the season. But their early struggles where more the result of a defense that had incredible difficulty stopping opponents. WR Randy Moss has to be a larger part of the offense for the Pats to win the division. But in the topsy-turvy world of the 2008 AFC, the Pats are the only team approximating their pre-season approximations. Current record: 5-2 Pre-season prediction: 13-3 (First in AFC North) New prediction: 11-5 (First in AFC North) Buffalo Bills: I thought that QB Trent Edwards needed another year to develop and that the defense wasn't quite there yet. But Edwards looks more like a veteran than a sophomore and the defense has been solid. WR Lee Evans is making great catches. RB Marshawn Lynch forces opposing defenses to be honest. The team is progressing faster than most thought possible and the Bills are probably considered one of the four best in the AFC. They are probably good enough to make plans to watch them in January. Current record: 5-2 Pre-season prediction: 7-9 New prediction: 11-5 (Wild Card) Miami Dolphins: There were a pair of pleasant surprises in the first half: victories against New England and Dallas. They almost upset the Jets in the opening week. Their offensive DVOA (a Football Outsiders metric that takes into account all offensive plays and compares them to teams in similar situations), is the second best in the NFL after Philadelphia. QB Chad Pennington is a useful game caller and the coaching has led to both winning and exciting plays -- most notably their wildcat offense. They already have three times the number of wins they had all last year -- and they are closer in most of the games they are losing. Current record: 3-4 Pre-season prediction: 4-12 New prediction: 6-10 New York Jets: The team's fortunes rest on the kind of game that Brett Favre is having. He leads the league in interceptions. Last year the Jets were dependent on running; Jets are still running. At some point 'learning the system' isn't a valid excuse for either the picks or the dependence on the running game. The off-season acquisition of nose tackle Kris Jenkins has led to a dramatic improvement in the run defense (29th in two of the last three years, fourth so far in 2008). Current record: 4-3 Pre-season prediction: 9-7 (Wild Card) New prediction: 9-7 AFC North: Pittsburgh Steelers: The defense has been stellar, but the O-line has been letting opposing defenses get their hands all over QB Ben Roethlisberger. The team has been plagued by injuries and they are getting some of their pieces back. If they can stay healthy, they should win the division. That might be a big if. All bets are off if the O-line lets Big Ben get hurt. Current record: 5-2 Pre-season prediction: 9-7 (First in AFC North) New prediction: 10-6 (First in AFC North) Baltimore Ravens: I thought their defense was beginning to slide and that they had no offense. I was right -- they have no offense with QB Joe Flacco only beginning to throw for TDs in the seventh week. But their defense has been among the very best and might be good enough to keep Baltimore in the hunt in the new, wacky, parity-laden AFC. Current record: 4-3 Pre-season prediction: 5-11 New prediction: 10-6 (Wild Card) Cleveland Browns: I didn't think they were as good as last year's record indicated, but thought that their plus defense would combine with an improving offense to finish 500. Instead, the offense has been awful and the defense took a little bit to get going. The coaching has been horrendous. But it now looks like their plus defense is combining with an improving offense to finish close to 500 on the year. Derek Anderson is a poor QB and should be replaced and it would be a big step in the right direction, but if they didn't do that when they were losing, they certainly aren't going to do that now that they are winning. Current record: 3-4 Pre-season prediction: 8-8 New prediction: 7-9 Cincinnati Bengals: A comprehensively awful team, they struggles were made worse by the loss of QB Carson Palmer. It doesn't matter what he goes by, Chad Johnson/Chad Ocho Cinco has been horrid this year. Current record: 0-8 Pre-season prediction: 7-9 New prediction: 1-15 AFC South: Tennessee Titans: Started a perfect 7-0, by beating up on weak teams and using a smashmouth defense to put the kibosh on opposing offenses; they have allowed just 12.4 points per game. But they are good enough to beat the good teams, too. Kerry Collins has been a perfectly adequate game caller, relying on the running game and short passes to the tight end. New favourites to win the Super Bowl for many. Current record: 7-0 Pre-season prediction: 9-7 New prediction: 14-2 (First in AFC South) Indianapolis Colts: They have been hit hard by injuries including last year's Defensive Player of the Year Bob Sanders. QB Peyton Manning struggled early overcoming a knee injury although it has been revealed that an infection has kept him at less than 100%. But the Colts have pulled off improbable wins by coming back late in the game on the strength of Manning's incredible drives and sheer will. A lop-sided defeat at the hands of Green Bay in Week 7 followed up by a come-from-behind defeat last week in Tennessee notwithstanding, they seem to have turned a corner. Current record: 3-4 Pre-season prediction: 13-3 (First in AFC South) New prediction: 9-6 Jacksonville Jaguars: They struggled early, in part due to injuries, in part due to a weak defense (ranked 23rd in Football Outsiders defensive DVOA, an advanced metric that measures all aspects of offense and defense). Their star free agent, CB Drayton Florence, has been a bust. The team is suffering the bad decisions they made in the off-season (trading multiple picks to move up in the draft to acquire DE Derrick Harvey) who has likewise been a bust. On the plus side, QB David Garrard may actually be better now than he was before Tommy John surgery. Current record: 3-4 Pre-season prediction: 10-6 (Wild Card) New prediction: 7-9 Houston Texans: Chosen by many as a sleeper pick that could squeeze their way into the playoff picture, they began 0-4 before picking up three consecutive wins against weak teams. QB Matt Schaub started slowly but is clearly getting better and more comfortable. WR Andre Johnson had an excellent October and hopes to carry it through the rest of the year and Steve Slaton is a quality RB. But their schedule is going to get more difficult. Current record: 3-4 Pre-season prediction: 8-8 New prediction: 6-9 AFC West: Denver Broncos: Early on the offense was unstoppable and the defense couldn't stop anything. Since then, the defense hasn't changed but the offense is less reliable, making the Broncs vulnerable in most games. They scored 114 points over the first three games; they've turned the ball over 13 times in the three losses (over four games). Jay Cutler's strong start has been stalled with injuries to several offensives players including rookie WR Eddie Royal, allowing opposing defenses to double team Brandon Marshall. Now the already weak defense is without the Baily brothers, Champ and Boss. Current record: 4-3 Pre-season prediction: 8-8 New prediction: 8-8 San Diego Chargers: They lost a big part of their defense with Shawne Merriman out for the season, but the defense, one of the best lost year, has been in shambles at times. QB Philip Rivers is one of the best game callers in the NFL this year (possibly the best QB in the AFC right now). LaDainain Tomlinson hadn't been anything special for much of the firs half and it is unclear how much that has to do with his injured toe and how much with the Bolts becoming a more balanced offense and less dependent on their star RB. But he has got progressively better the past three games. The Bolts should improve and still have a great chance to win the division. Current record: 3-5 Pre-season prediction: 14-2 (First in AFC West) New prediction: 9-7 (First in AFC West) Oakland Raiders: This team is in shambles. Owner Al Davis fired coach Lane Kiffen in September, but coaching wasn't the problem. The Raiders are not good enough to contend but do not yet realize they need to rebuild. There are the materials there to begin, although rookie RB Darren McFadden hasn't met the unrealistic expectations of lifting the franchise on his back and running downfield with them. Second year QB JaMarcus Russell hasn't answered lingering questions about his arm, game-calling ability, leadership and discipline. If Davis isn't going to admit that the team needs to be torn apart and let the football people rather than the owner dictate the direction of the team, Oakland is in for many years of misery. Current record: 2-5 Pre-season prediction: 5-11 New prediction: 4-12 Kansas City Chiefs: They have begun to rebuild and they are probably two years from seeing the fruits of this year's sacrifices. They are horrible but giving young players a chance to develop. Current record: 1-6 Pre-season prediction: 3-13 New prediction: 2-14 Playoffs: Wild Card: Pittsburgh Steelers beat Baltimore Ravens Buffalo Bills beat San Diego Chargers Divisional Playoffs: Tennessee Titans beat Buffalo Bills Pittsburgh Steelers beat New England Patriots AFC Championship: Tennessee Titans beat Pittsburgh Steelers Super Bowl: Tennessee Titans beat Arizona Cardinals NFL season -- First-half report, Part I (NFC) NFC East: New York Giants: Before the season started, many football pundits doubted the G-Men could repeat as Super Bowl champions, but they have played extremely well. Their defense, already very good last year, has improved, despite departures and injuries. Eli Manning began strong, but has regressed recently. But they are probably the most complete team in the NFC with the exception of the Dallas Cowboys, but unlike the Boys, they are well-coached and lack the turmoil. Current record: 6-1 Pre-season prediction: 9-7 New prediction: 12-4 Washington Redskins: They had a horrible opening game against the Giants in the Meadowlands but then won six of seven, consistently looking impressive and beating a pair of division rivals (Philly & Dallas). QB Jason Campbell has performed better than I thought he would and RB Clinton Portis is the leading rusher so far this year. First-year head coach Jim Zorn has done a great job. Current record: 6-2 Pre-season prediction: 5-11 New prediction: 12-4 (Wild card) Dallas Cowboys: They started the season as favourites to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl. But after Tony Romo's broken finger and lots of turmoil, there are doubts that they will even make playoffs. Lots of talent and huge O-line but you can't help but think that the adjective that will be bandied about at the end of the season is disappointing. Wade Phillips is an awful coach, although his 3-4 defense probably won them their last game (against Tampa Bay). Current record: 5-3 Pre-season prediction: 13-3 (First in the NFC East) New prediction: 10-6 Philadelphia Eagles: They are a strong team but they possess a record that is not indicative of their abilities. They are very good at blitzing the QB and now that RB Brian Westbrook is back healthy, they have a more balanced offense. They'll get better if their DVOA (a total metric from Football Outsiders that measures offense and defense) is to be believed: they are the best in the game, just ahead of the Giants and Titans. Current record: 4-3 Pre-season prediction: 12-4 (Wild Card) New prediction: 10-6 NFC North: Chicago Bears: I totally under-estimated the offense. QB Kyle Orton won the starting job and has performed quite well and they haven't missed key offensive components that bolted in the off-season. Indeed, quite the opposite happened: they went from a poor offense to smack in the middle of the rankings (15th in offensive DVOA). The defense is, as predicted, in the top third of the league despite MLB Brian Urlacher's lackluster season. The Bears make for a good but not great team. Current record: 4-3 Pre-season prediction: 5-11 New prediction: 9-7 Green Bay Packers: Can the comparisons between Aaron Rodgers and Brett Favre end now? Rodgers is having the better season (one third the picks) and a comparable completion rate. Packers have been riddled by injuries but with key players returning, they could make a decent run for the division title. Current record: 4-3 Pre-season prediction: 9-7 (Wild Card) New prediction: 10-6 Minnesota Vikings: I was predicting big things for the Vikings. I thought they significantly upgraded their defense, added several offensive weapons, and that would be enough to overcome a slightly below average QB situation. But ... it hasn't come together. While the team is only one game out of first, they look very, very far from competing. Current record: 3-4 Pre-season prediction: 12-4 (First in NFC North) New prediction: 6-10 Detroit Lions: Comprehensively awful. Rebuilding has begun. The winless season watch has begun. Current record: 0-7 Pre-season prediction: 4-12 New prediction: 0-16 NFC South: Tampa Bay Buccaneers: The team changed its style: the defense has moved from cover-2 to man-to-man and blitzing; coach Jon Gruden has become more conservative. Combined with flashes of excellence from normally weak-armed Jeff Garcia. The team might be expected to run more in the second half. Current record: 6-2 Pre-season prediction: 9-7 New prediction: 12-4 Carolina Panthers: John Fox is a good coach; Jake Delhomme has bounced back from Tommy John surgery quite nicely and is a fine if unspectacular QB; the Panthers have a great running game and a strong defense. A pretty complete team before you count WR Steve Smith. Current record: 5-3 Pre-season prediction: 8-8 New prediction: 11-5 (Wild Card) Arizona Falcons: They were beginning to rebuild and I thought they would get worse before they got better. Instead, rookie QB Matt Ryan hasn't looked like he's playing in his first NFL seasons. RB Michael Turner, LT's understudy in SD, has emerged as running threat. They matched last year's win total in week seven. The Falcons will both rebuild and compete this year until either the Panthers or Bucs win a few in a row to pull away. Current record: 4-3 Pre-season prediction: 3-12 New prediction: 7-9 New Orleans Saints: It seems that my prediction that QB Drew Brees would win the MVP -- he is on pace to beat Dan Marino's single season yards passed record -- but the Saints struggled with injuries to the offense (WR Marques Colston, RB Reggie Bush) and a defense that can't stop anything. Current record: 4-4 Pre-season prediction: 12-4 (First in NFC South) New prediction: 9-7 NFC South: Arizona Cardinals: Lots of aerial defense with Kurt Warner looking like the MVP he was nearly a decade ago. Should easily win the division. Their defense against the run is under-rated. Current record: 4-3 Pre-season prediction: 4-12 New prediction: 10-6 Seattle Seahawks: The team struggled early on with injuries to what seemed like every WR. Things went from bad to worse with QB Matt Hasselback out. They probably think they are still in the playoff hunt in the weak NFC West, but that assumes that Arizona isn't as good as they seem. Current record: 2-5 Pre-season prediction: 11-5 (First in NFC South) New prediction: 5-11 St. Louis Rams: They now realize they have to rebuild although new (interim) coach Jim Haslett has them winning occasionally. Don't expect much with QB Marc Bulger calling the games now. Current record: 2-5 Pre-season prediction: 3-13 New prediction: 7-9 San Francisco 49ers: The team is a mess (their 20 giveaways leads the NFL) and new coach Mike Singletary isn't going to whip them into shape any time soon. J.C. Campbell, the season's QB for most of the season, was pulled in the second quarter of Singletary's first game. Let the rebuilding begin. Current record: 2-6 Pre-season prediction: 6-10 New prediction: 3-13 Playoffs: NFC Wild Card: Green Bay Packers beat Washington Redskins Arizona Cardinals beat Carolina Panthers NFC Divisional: New York Giants beat Green Bay Packers Arizona Cardinals beat Tampa Bay Bucanneers NFC Championship: Arizona Cardinals beat New York Giants Presidential election prediction Electoral vote: Barack Obama - 340 John McCain - 198 Popular vote: Obama: 51.4% McCain: 46.2% Others: 2.4% Battleground states: Obama: Colorado, North Carolina, Virginia, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Missouri, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico, New Hampshire, Michigan, Minnesota McCain: Florida, Georgia, Indiana, West Virginia, North Dakota Election by the numbers: bad news for the Republicans George Will has lots of numbers in his Washington Post column, including these: "Eleven states with 63 electoral votes have not voted Democratic in the 10 elections since 1964: Alaska, Utah, Wyoming, Idaho, North Dakota, South Dakota, Oklahoma, Kansas, Nebraska, Indiana and Virginia. On election eve, Obama is competitive in Virginia and Indiana, which Bush carried in 2004 by margins of 8.2 and 20.7 percentage points, respectively. In Nebraska, which is one of two states (Maine is the other) that allocate an electoral vote to the candidate who carries each congressional district, Obama might win the 2nd District (Omaha). In 2004, George W. Bush beat John Kerry there by 22 percentage points. Seven states with 60 electoral votes have voted Democratic only once since 1964: North Carolina, South Carolina, Alabama, Mississippi, Montana, Colorado and Arizona. It will not be startling if Obama carries two -- Colorado and North Carolina. In 2004, Bush carried them by 4.7 and 12.4 percentage points, respectively." Losing Colorado (certainly), Montana (probably) and North Carolina (likely) signals a significant shift in the Red-Blue divide. No longer is the South and the Mountain West safely Republican -- the "L" of American politics that starts at the US-Canada border at Idaho, Montana and North Dakota and goes south through Nevada, Utah and Colorado, to Texas, New Mexico and Arizona, and heads east through Kentucky, Tennessee, Virginia, and the Carolinas down to Florida. The electoral college votes of these 25 states represent just under 85% of total that the Republicans need to win. Throw in Alaska and Indiana and the GOP are at 90% of the necessary electoral votes to win the presidency. Some of them (notably New Mexico) have already become more competitive in recent elections and more than a half dozen are competitive now. Republicans must figure out whether this is a one-time problem or whether there are changes (mostly demographic) that is changing the political calculus of American elections. That is the point of Will's numerical presentation. I disagree with Will about what he says about the five deep south states (South Carolina, Georgia, Alabama, Mississippi and Louisiana): "Since 1980, Democratic presidential candidates have averaged only 42.5 percent of the vote in the five states. Measure Barack Obama's performance there -- built upon increased turnout of African Americans, who are 30 percent of the five states' combined populations -- against that 42.5 percent." The final results might not only be a measure of Obama's performance, but of the GOP's governing of the country over the past eight years. If it was only about Obama, there wouldn't be much reason to worry: Obamamania will pass, if only because he is term-limited. But there is something else happening: a nation-wide reaction against the excesses of Republican government since 2001, the growth of the Hispanic population in the southwest, the reaction in the libertarian Mountain West against the (seeming) control of the Religious Right over the Republican Party, and migration from the north (especially Pennsylvania) to the south (North Carolina, Georgia, Florida). The Democrats will have the advantage in future elections if the Republicans lose their natural advantage of the west and south. Saturday, November 01, 2008
What I'm reading 1. The Big Necessity: The Unmentionalbe World of Human Waste and Why it Matters by Rose George. An endlessly fascinating and serious book. 2. Hell Or High Water: My Life In And Out Of Politics by Paul Martin. I hope to have more to say about it later. 3. "We Don’t Need Another War on Poverty," by Steven Malanga in the Autumn City Journal. Hope to blog about this later, too. 4. "Same-Sex Marriage and the Threat to Religious Liberty," a Heritage Foundation Backgrounder by Thomas M. Messner. 5. "Closing the Aboriginal/non-Aboriginal Education Gaps," a C.D. Howe Institute Backgrounder by John Richards. Any given Sunday  New York Jets at Buffalo Bills: The Jets fortunes ride on whether Brett Favre has a good game. He has to limit his gambles because he has throwing picks galore recently (seven in three games). The Jets have been running more often this year than last but the Bills will force Favre to go in the air more than usual because they have the fourth best run defense and have trouble with pass coverage. Bills are 3-0 at home where they average 27 points a game. Buffalo is favoured by 5.5 and that seems reasonable. Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears: Did you know that the 0-7 Lions have the best red-zone offense, scoring a touchdown on 75% of their possessions inside the opposition 20 yards. Problem is they have the fewest red zone chances in the league. Detroit has used five different offensive line combinations in their past seven games as they try find something, anything, that works. Following trading deadline move of Roy Williams, the only threat oppossing defenses must pay attention to is Calvin Johnson, so expect the Bears secondary to guard him and prevent any serious drives. A surging Bears -- a good defense and competent offense led by an emergent QB Kyle Orton -- versus the hapless Lions, at home makes this an easy call: Bears win and will cover the 13 points. Jacksonville Jaguars at Cincinnati Bengals: Jax has struggled and the 0-7 Bengals are the perfect fix for a struggling team. The Bengals are still using backup QB Ryan Fitzpatrick. Jags David Garrard is a smart game caller and the athletic QB is is just as likely to run it himself if there is an opening or he gets pressured. But Jacksonville's defense is pretty mediocre and normally that keeps games close, but Cincy has lost their last two games by 29 and 28 points. Jax wins and covers the 7.5 points. Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns: The Ravens have a strong defense and is the best against the run. The Browns have won three of four after starting off 0-3. The way to beat the Ravens is stop the run and fluster their rookie QB Joe Flacco. The Browns defense is Cleveland's strength and it is getting better. The Ravens won 28-10 at home in week two but the Browns didn't have all their offensive weapons at the time with WRs Donte' Stallworth and Braylon Edwards out of the action at the time. The Ravens are a tough team to beat, but they have a hard time on the road (having lost 7 of their last 9 away from home). I'll take the Browns who are favoured by only 1.5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Kansas City Chiefs: Tampa Bay has been awful in the red zone, converting just 11 TDs in 31 such opportunities this year. This week they get WR Joey Galloway back. Jeff Garcia is a middling QB but they only have to beat the Chiefs who are using their second backup QB, Tyler Thigpen. Also, the Chiefs allow just under 200 running yards per game, which means Bucs RBs Earnest Graham and Warrick Dunn will get yards and prevent the need for weak-armed Garcia to have make big plays. Chiefs still don't have RB Larry Johnson, who has been suspended. Bucs win on the road and cover the 8.5 spread. Houston Texans at Minnesota Vikings: After an 0-3 start, Texas has begun to turn it around. QB Matt Schaub has quietly completed 68% of his passes. WR Andre Johnson has become his favourite target. Vikes QB Gus Frerotte is adequate but expect him to mostly pass the ball off to RB Adrian Peterson. Neither team's pass defense are anything special (although Minny's run defense is second best in the league), but both the Vikes and Texans have offenses that can make up the difference. Key for Minny is stopping the Texans on third downs; Houston leads the NFL with a 47.8% conversion rate in such situations. Texans are awful on the road. Minny wins but doesn't cover the 4.5 spread. Arizona Cardinals at St. Louis Rams: Kurt Warner returns to the city where he won two MVP awards and a Super Bowl and he brings with him a 102.1 passer rating. The high flying Cards have three top-notch receiving threats -- WRs Anquan Boldin, Larry Fitzgerald and Steve Breaston. Rams may seem like a new team under interim coach Jim Haslett, but their D, which allows 233.9 passing yards per game, is extremely vulnerable to Arizona's offense. Cards QB Ray Bolger isn't going lead the offense to where they can keep it close. Cards cover the three point spread. Green Bay Packers at Tennessee Titans: The oddsmakers have Tennessee by 5.5 but I'm dubious. The Packers had last week off and the Titans played on Monday night -- that's not really fair. Titans have allowed just 16 first-quarter points all year, so the Green Bay game plan is to score early and put pressure on the Titans to stop their run game. QB Aaron Rodgers is great when he isn't put under pressure -- but the Titans have a smothering defense. On the plus side for the Packers, they have CB Al Harris and SS Atari Bigby return from injury. I think the difference is that the Titans will be tired after the short while the Packers have had two week to prepare and let their players rest. Packers the upset in Nashville. Miami Dolphins at Denver Broncos: The Broncos's offense has gone cold and Denver is 1-3 since their 3-0 start. QB Jay Cutler started hot but with fewer offensive weapons available to him (due to injuries) he has cooled quite a bit. They're introducing rookie RB Ryan Torain to add another dimension to their offense. The Broncs have little defense -- and that was before CB Champ Baily got injured. Miami OLB Jerry Porter is emerging as a defensive star (10.5 sacks so far this year), QB Chad Pennington is a perfectly adequate game caller, WR Ted Ginn has finally become a useful target and RB Ronnie Brown has completely discombobulated opposing defenses. Against Denver's pathetic run defense, Brown should pile up points and possibly TDs. Broncos are favoured by three, but I'm predicting the Fins win it. Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants: The Cowboys are struggling although their defense was stellar against the Bucs last week but their offense is almost non-existent. Giants offense is solid and their defense is excellent. Cowboys don't have a chance at the Meadowlands, especially with Tony Romo still nursing a broken pinkie finger. Giants' QB Eli Manning has returned to the inconsistency that plagued his early career and is prone to critical errors. However, ancient Boys backup QB Brad Johnson won't be much of a threat and Terrell Owens has gone 11 games without a 100-yard day. RB Marion Barber can't do everything, no matter how good he is. And there will be added pressure with TE Jason Witten out with a broken rib. Giants are favoured by 9, but the Boys, although they lose, will keep it closer. There is still a lot of talent on that team. Atlanta Falcons at Oakland Raiders: RB Michael Turner hasn't been as strong lately but he faces the 27th ranked run defense. WR Roddy White has had three straight 100-yard games receiving for the Falcons. Rookie QB Matt Ryan has been given the green light to throw and shouldn't have problems against the Raiders pass defense. Second-year Raiders QB JaMarcus Russell is not as mature a game caller as Ryan is for Atlanta who should win and cover the three points. Philadelphia Eagles at Seattle Seahawks: 'Hawks backup game caller Seneca Wallace doesn't stand a chance against the Eagles' blitzing defense. RB Brian Westbrook has returned and makes the offense more potent. He should be help third-and-one situations where Philly has converted just six of 13 such chances. The O-line protects B Donovan McNabb, allowing just 12 sacks all year. 'Hawks secondary gives up lots of yardage, so expect McNabb to use a well-balanced offense to win on the road, but beating the seven-point spread is unlikely. New England Patriots at Indianapolis Colts: At the beginning of the year, this would have been considered the game of the week, but the Colts need the win to get back to 500. The Pats have not struggled as many people expected after the loss of their star QB and are an impressive 5-2, tied for the AFC East lead. Both teams have suffered injuries to their defense, running backs and QB. Peyton Manning hasn't been as good as he can be, but has picked his team up on his shoulders at times and carried them. The Pats defense is really putting it together after the slow start and should keep the Colts in check. Matt Cassel is doing fine at QB but will be challenged by an Indy defense that can get to the QB quickly. The Colts need a more balanced offense but despite Peyton's infected knee it has thus far been their running game that has been weak. Patriots will win and cover the 5.5 point spread. Pittsburgh Steelers at Washington Redskins: 'Skins Jason Campbell hasn't thrown an interception all year. Pittsburgh has a superior defense that could ruin his perfection. But the Steelers' O-line doesn't do a great job of protecting Ben Roethlisberger. Big Ben has more targets with WR Santonio Holmes back and RB Willie Parker expected back. The real game within the game is Washington's league-leading rusher Clinton Portis (944 yards) against Pittsburgh's third-ranked run defense. Washington is favoured by two which makes sense against the banged up Steelers. |
