Sobering Thoughts |
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Comments on politics, the culture, economics and religion by Paul Tuns -- in short, everything about the human endeavour from a non-hyphenated conservative perspective.
I am Toronto-based writer and editor, whose articles, columns and reviews have appeared in more than 35 publications. I am editor-in-chief of The Interim, Canada's life and family newspaper, author of Jean Chretien: A Legacy of Scandal and a regular contributor to the book pages of the Halifax Herald.
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Wednesday, April 30, 2008
The GOP problem in a nutshell From Tyler Cowen: "Trade aside, so far I've yet to see many actual policy proposals from the McCain camp. Mostly I've seen attempts to signal that they won't do anything too offensive to the party's right wing. Very few of these trial balloons seem to be ideas that McCain had expressed much previous loyalty to. I don't even think we should be analyzing these statements as policy proposals. We should be wondering why the Republican Party has given up on the idea of policy proposals." Climate changers can make it up as they go along From the Daily Telegraph: "Global warming will stop until at least 2015 because of natural variations in the climate, scientists have said. Researchers studying long-term changes in sea temperatures said they now expect a 'lull' for up to a decade while natural variations in climate cancel out the increases caused by man-made greenhouse gas emissions. The average temperature of the sea around Europe and North America is expected to cool slightly over the decade while the tropical Pacific remains unchanged. This would mean that the 0.3°C global average temperature rise which has been predicted for the next decade by the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change may not happen, according to the paper published in the scientific journal Nature. However, the effect of rising fossil fuel emissions will mean that warming will accelerate again after 2015 when natural trends in the oceans veer back towards warming, according to the computer model." Or at least that is what they say today. At least until whatever model their using is shown to be bogus and they have to change their theory to fit the facts. Or the facts to fit the theory. Or a little of both. Being a global warmer means never having to say your wrong. Like Trotsky, the sign of their farsightedness is that none of their predictions have come true yet. Things I'm reading 1. "Where Are They? Why I hope the search for extraterrestrial life finds nothing" by Nick Bostrom in the May/June issue of the M.I.T. Technology Review. 2. "Inequality and Prices: Does China Benefit the Poor in America?" by Christian Broda and John Romalis, an academic paper that briefly examines whether trade with Red China contributes to inequality in the United States (the answer seems to be not that much) but looks more in depth into the question of how much American consumers save with the import of cheaper Chinese goods (a fair bit). 3. "Sunset in America: The end of the age of Reagan" by Sean Wilentz in The New Republic. There they go again, liberals declaring Reaganism and the Reagan coalition dead. Might be true -- probably is -- but such an analysis would be more convincing and more interesting coming from someone who did not wish it were true. 4. Anything for a Vote: Dirty Tricks, Cheap Shots, and October Surprises in U.S. Presidential Campaigns by Joseph Cummins. 5. Dismal Science: The Shortcomings of U.S. School Choice Research and How to Address Them, a CATO Institute Policy Analysis by John Merrifield. Merrifield says that there are too few true education markets to study whether or not school choice helps educational outcomes. Tuesday, April 29, 2008
Anonymous sources Ian Ayres has a great post at Freakonomics on a 2003 policy change at the New York Times and other papers on the use of anonymous sources. Ayres notes: "In 2003 there were only 730 A.P. articles with the phrase, but by 2005 there were 9,451 articles using the phrase." That is some inflation rate. Ayres points to a number of examples, some of them quite silly or inane: "Spoke on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to speak publicly" appeared in the Herald Tribune and "Spoke on condition of anonymity because he remains an informal adviser" who was quoted in the San Diego Union, both of whom may not speak with any authority. Others are more serious, like the source who didn't want the criminal element to know his (or her) whereabouts. I would wonder about the trustworthiness of the source who was quoted anonymously by the Dallas News because "the discussions were confidential." If the source broke confidentiality, how trustworthy is that source? Ayres finds this promiscuous granting of anonymity troublesome and a sign that journalists cannot "distinguish between legitimate and illegitimate retaliation that might be visited upon an anonymous source." There are really good reasons to grant anonymity: "The strongest rationale for granting a source anonymity is simply to protect the source from illegitimate retaliation or harassment for providing information." But it can also be wrong to grant anonymity such as when sources "misappropriate employer information." Ayres correctly states, "newspapers’ anonymity policies should [not] facilitate employee malfeasance." Preliminary research on 400 anonymous source citations finds that in 40% of such references the "source was trying to avoid legitimate retaliation" (that is the source could "legitimately fired or disciplined for violating their fiduciary duty to their employer") and whereas just 26% of such sourcings were clearly justified. Ayres has a solution: "[F]orce newspapers that use anonymous employee sources to take on the employee’s potential liability for disclosing employer information. An employer who would have been able to sue an employee for an unauthorized disclosure could instead sue the newspaper for damages." The media would cry 'chill' but it would result in more responsible journalism -- and more responsible employees. Blog habits Someone emailed to ask which blogs, if any, do I go to several times daily. Here are the top six, non-baseball blogs I'll check repeatedly: Marginal Revolution Five Feet of Fury The Corner ProWomanProLife Club for Growth Freakonomcis Yeah, so Guy Herbert at Samizdata: "There are plenty of appalling things in the world, but the amount of media coverage is far from a reliable guide to what's important or even real. Really bad things get scant notice if there's no populist hook ... Meanwhile non-stories, virtual risks, and popular panics are underwritten by massive investment in sensational coverage." So does Herbert mean that Miley Cyrus posing near-nude for Vogue is not an important story worthy of serious comment by serious people? Why do I know who Miley Cyrus is? Real rights Ezra Levant on what are real rights and what are phony rights (the latter, such as the right not to offended, are upheld by Canada's human rights commissions): "I know what real 'gay rights' are. They're the same as real 'Jewish rights'. The right to private property. The right to self-defence. The right to free speech, sanctity of contract. The right to be free of violence, etc." I don't know; that sounds awfully fascist. (Note: that was sarcasm.) The future of the EU Mark Steyn and Bryan Caplan bet that at least one country with a population of 10 million will withdraw from the European Union by 2020. Steyn (as well as David Henderson) says that some country will leave, Caplan doesn't think so. Caplan's challenge, Steyn's acceptance and Caplan's clarification of which countries are included (Germany, France, UK, Italy, Spain, Poland, Romania, Netherlands, Greece, Portugal, Belgium, the Czech Republic, and Hungary). I've been giving this scenario some thought in recent days and have to side with Steyn and Henderson on this one. Too many libertarians fail to understand the importance of (tribal) culture which is probably the basis of Steyn's prediction (in America Alone) and why Caplan offered the bet in the first place, although my own musings were spurred by the idea that some countries are annoyed by being robbed of monetary policy options to deal with economic problems when politicians might not want to make unpopular fiscal policy decisions. I wouldn't bet on Germany or United Kingdom, or even Spain or Portugal, leaving. But I reckon the likelihood of an anti-EU nationalist right-wing or socialist left-wing party coming to power in the former Eastern bloc is fairly good. Or the formation of a coalition government in Netherlands or Belgium that is more than a little skeptical of the EU. Or some strange French leader pulling a hissy-fit and leaving for no good reason. All these are well within the realm of possible if not quite probable. But considering the number of countries that need just one reason to bolt, I think I'd side with Steyn and Henderson on this one. Paraphrase of the day Dani Rodrik: "Harvey Mansfield once defined a liberal as someone who wouldn't have anything to do if the NYT did not come out on Sundays." Liberal dilemmas From Andrew Roth at the Club for Growth blog: "A 67-year-old anti-trust law in Pennsylvania is preventing Wal-Mart from selling $4 generic drugs. Instead, over four dozen different drugs have to be sold for at least $9. So...if you're a liberal, what side of the argument do you support? Do you defend Wal-Mart (God forbid) and repeal the law so that people can get their much-needed drugs at 'an everyday' low price? Or do you side with the mom-and-pop pharmacies that supposedly can't compete against the big, bad Wal-Mart?" Monday, April 28, 2008
Private sector health twice as big in France than in US Interesting little fact from a Montreal Economic Institute paper on the private sector within public health care: "Private institutions occupy an indispensable place in France’s hospital landscape. In 2005, there were 1,052 private for-profit establishments in France, 37% of all health care establishments with hospital capabilities. They accounted for 91,191 beds for full hospital care, or 21% of the total. This is about twice as much as the United States, where private for-profit establishments represented 15% of all hospitals and 12% of all beds." The authors make a case for a mixed, universal and accessible system. This is, of course, the way conservatives in Canada should argue for health care reform -- pointing to European mixed model systems which provide a degree of choice. Quebec doctors opposed to C-484 One of my colleagues at The Interim passes on this press release from the Federation of Medical Specialists of Québec which opposes C-484 because, the Federation claims, the Unborn Victims of Crime bill will re-open the abortion debate. Nonsense. As the bill itself states: "(7) For greater certainty, this section does not apply in respect of (a) conduct relating to the lawful termination of the pregnancy of the mother of the child to which the mother has consented; (b) an act or omission that a person acting in good faith considers necessary to preserve the life of the mother of the child or the life of the child; or (c) any act or omission by the mother of the child." In other words, it does not ever apply to medical professionals committing abortions nor, contra the hysteria of some abortion advocates, can it be used against the mother for any reason (procuring an abortion, fetal neglect, etc...). You can send your criticism of the Federation's action to: Federation of Medical Specialists of Québec P.O. Box 216 Place Desjardins Stn MONTRÉAL, Quebec H5B 1G8 Or call or email: Telephone: (514) 350-5000 Toll Free Phone: 1(800) 561-0703 Email: president@fmsq.org The significance of Rev. Wright Philip Klein at the AmSpec blog captures the significance of the Rev. Jeremiah Wright in the '08 campaign: "I've always felt that Wright would not be a make or break issue for Obama, but it will be part of a growing narrative about Obama that will continue to harm his image as a transformational leader and haunt his candidacy. Obama's defenders will continue to say it doesn't matter what Wright said, Obama doesn't agree with his comments. But the problem is that since Obama has such a thin public record, since there are few tangible accomplishments his campaign can point to as evidence of his ability to make positive changes by bringing people together through shared hope, all the American people have to go on are his speeches. But it's hard to take a leap of faith with somebody who you don't know very well. Therefore, when trying to determine who Obama is, this guy who within five years has risen from the obscurity of the state senate to within arm's reach of the most powerful job in the world, his close relationships take on an added importance." Roy Halladay -- the machine Jeff Passan has a decentish write-up on Roy Halladay of the Toronto Blue Jays, that near-extinct breed that both starts and finishes games. Questions for Barack (and his wife) George F. Will's Newsweek column asks the presumptive Democratic candidate numerous questions that many in the rest of the media refuse to ask, including these three gems: "• Telling young people 'don't go into corporate America,' your wife, Michelle, urged them to become social workers or others in 'the helping industry,' not 'the moneymaking industry.' Given that the moneymakers pay for 100 percent of American jobs, in both public and private sectors, is it not helpful? • Michelle, who was born in 1964, says that most Americans' lives have 'gotten progressively worse since I was a little girl.' Since 1960, real per capita income has increased 143 percent, life expectancy has increased by seven years, infant mortality has declined 74 percent, deaths from heart disease have been halved, childhood leukemia has stopped being a death sentence, depression has become a treatable disease, air and water pollution have been drastically reduced, the number of women earning a bachelor's degree has more than doubled, the rate of homeownership has increased 10.2 percent, the size of the average American home has doubled, the percentage of homes with air conditioning has risen from 12 to 77, the portion of Americans who own shares of stock has quintupled … Has your wife perhaps missed some pertinent developments in this country that she calls 'just downright mean'? • You favor raising the capital gains tax rate to '20 percent or 25 percent.' You say this will not 'distort' economic decision making. Your tax returns on your 2007 income of $4.2 million show that you and Michelle own few stocks. Are you sure you understand how investors make decisions?" Should Beijing hold the Olympics every time? Benny Avni writes in the New York Sun that if Red China were to hold the Olympics every time, more of the world would know about the human rights abuses and other activities of Beijing. As Avni writes: "[There] is the mounting pressure over its world behavior affecting China's policies? The government's conditional offer on Friday to talk to representatives of the Dalai Lama could signal a new readiness to negotiate." Freedom for rice! In his New York Times column, Tyler Cowen points out that rice supplies and prices should rise if more rice was traded. Currently, as Cowen points out, "Only about 5 to 7 percent of the world’s rice production is traded across borders; that’s unusually low for an agricultural commodity." Many countries are imposing export bans on rice (and other agricultural products) which makes sense on an intuitive level (why export food when the country doesn't have enough as is), but creates "longer-run incentives" which "are counterproductive." Cowen explains: "Export restrictions send a message to farmers that their crops are least profitable precisely when they are most needed. There is little incentive to plant, harvest or store enough rice — or any other crop, for that matter — as a hedge against bad times." Cowen also notes that many countries have production boards and other forms of state interference, all of which make adapting to changing demand much more difficult. Cowen concludes: "Lately, it’s become fashionable to assert that, in this time of financial market turmoil, the market-oriented teachings of Milton Friedman belong more to the past than to the future. The sadder truth is that when it comes to food production — arguably the most important of all human activities — Mr. Friedman’s free-trade ideas still haven’t seen the light of day." Dallas and the end of the Cold War Writing in the Washington Post, Nick Gillespie and Matt Welch make the excellent point that cultural influences such as TV shows can be just as important as bombs and boycotts in affecting change overseas. I think it is easy to exaggerate the point, but the authors are on to something when they say that those living in communist regimes seeing the fruits of wealth production in the heartland of Texas became less satisfied with lines for food and toilet paper. Two cheers for the bourbon and sex-dripped capitalism of TV's Dallas. First they come for your campaign donations, then they come for your lawn signs ... George F. Will in yesterday's Washington Post on the lack of free political speech in John McCain's America: "Ugly locutions often crop up in the promotion of ugly politics. Consider the threat of 'scrutinization.' It has been made against some residents of Parker North, Colo., who expressed a political opinion without first getting their state government's permission for political activity. Herewith another example of what is being done around the nation in the name of political hygiene, as that is understood by 'campaign finance reformers,' those irksome improvers whose animating ideology is McCainism. Parker North is a cluster of about 300 houses close to the town of Parker. When two residents proposed a vote on annexation of their subdivision to Parker, six others began trying to persuade the rest to oppose annexation. They printed lawn signs and fliers, started an online discussion group and canvassed neighbors, little knowing that they were provoking Colorado's speech police. One proponent of annexation sued them. This tactic -- wielding campaign finance regulations to suppress opponents' speech -- is common in the America of the McCain-Feingold campaign finance law. The complaint did not just threaten the Parker Six for any 'illegal activities.' It also said that anyone who had contacted them or received a lawn sign might be subjected to 'investigation, scrutinization and sanctions for campaign finance violations'." Sunday, April 27, 2008
Seasteading  I read about Seasteading and I can't help but think about Big Blue Sea. The idea behind seasteading is to create communities (on ships, floating structures, underwater villages, or stabilized platforms) at sea that are beyond the reach of government laws and regulations. As the full 'practical guide', co-written by Milton Friedman's grandson, states, there are, "people seek the autonomy to live under and experiment with different political, social, and economic systems than currently exist. It is this search for sovereignty, for the freedom of self-government, which is the fundamental motivation for seasteading. Utopia is different for everyone, and so there are a wide variety of theoretical new systems and gripes with the old ones." As if libertarians needed any help seeming weirder. Earlier this month, a Seasteading Institute was founded. Fascinating but silly stuff. I can't believe I just spent a few hours reading all about it. Saturday, April 26, 2008
Euthanasia's slippery slope Licia Corbella examines the Dutch experience with euthanasia and finds that, "the experience in Holland shows that when assisted suicide and euthanasia are an accepted practice, a shocking number of people wind up having no choice at all -- ever again." Putting aside the issue of whether or not people have a right to have a doctor kill them, there is simply no way to enact safeguards to protect vulnerable people from being killed (accidentally or not) or to prevent the definition of those who qualify for 'compassionate' killing to expand exponentially. I am generally skeptical of slippery slope arguments but the need to protect the sick, elderly, disabled or other vulnerable people should be of paramount importance in society. They deserve our love, compassion and assistance, not death dressed up as mercy. The problem is that once society and the medical establishment shows such phony mercy to some, it is virtually impossible (because it is considered cruel) to not show similar 'mercy' to others. Religious liberty and property rights attacked Ontario Human Rights Tribunal tells a Christian ministry that works with the developmentally disabled that he must not discriminate against homosexuals in their employment practices. OHRC chairlady Barbara Hall cheerleads the decision: This decision is important because it sets out that when faith-based and other organizations move beyond serving the interests of their particular community to serving the general public, the rights of others, including employees, must be respected." In other words, the rights of religious organizations stops precisely where the state decides. As Kathy Shaidle often says, these issues are not only religious issues, but a property rights issue. Horizons, the ministry in question, should be allowed to conduct their business serving the developmentally handicapped as they see fit. The state sees itself with the infinite wisdom to dictate to all what they should be allowed to do and the limits of the applicability of their religious beliefs. The decision can be read here. Get rid of the adjective in fair trade As part of the 'Common Error' series at the Adam Smith Institute blog, Dr. Madsen Pirie explains that rather than purchasing fair trade goods, "we should help third world producers by buying more of everything they produce." As Pirie explains: "But only a small proportion of the price differential finds its way back to people in poorer countries. The movement is big on heart-warming individual anecdotes, but scores low on the overall statistics. Only a tiny proportion of goods are designated as 'fair trade,' and most of the higher prices paid are swallowed up before they reach the original third world producer." But liberals would never let something as meaningless as facts get in the way of feeling good about oneself through moralizing gestures. Ultimately, the fair trade crowd must ask themselves if the developing world remains poor because Canadians and Americans pay too little for their coffee? I think not. Which report on gas prices got a lot more play? The fear-mongering CIBC World Markets Inc. report that says that gas prices will increase globally, including to $2.25/litre in Canada by 2012? Or the sober-minded TD Economics report that says gas prices in Canada should be back to a buck per litre by the end of the year? In journalism, bad news is the best news and good news is ignorable. Friday, April 25, 2008
What I'm reading A new feature that I'll post when I'm reading new books, lengthy articles and various studies and reports. Sometimes with comments, sometimes without. 1. The Autobiography of Margaret Sanger by Margaret Sanger. I'm not really surprised by anything in it because her racism is well-documented and I've long been aware of the racist and eugenic streak in early 20th century American progressivism. Yet parts of the book are unintentionally funny, such as her ideal that prospective children be allowed to interview their parents before they are born. 2. I'm re-reading "Arctic Meltdown: The Economic and Security Implications of Global Warming," by Scott G. Borgerson in the March/April issue of Foreign Affairs. While I recognize that the Arctic is a region that will spur competing claims by Russia, Canada, Denmark and Norway -- the U.S. is strangely sitting on the sidelines for now says Borgerson -- I doubt that there is really much potential for armed conflict as the author suggests. But that is not to diminish the importance of the area which might be rich in natural resources (there is estimated to be billions of barrels of oil and trillions of cubic feet of gas); it is also becoming increasingly navigable and therefore an important sea route. 3. The Pacific Research Institute and American Enterprise Institute jointly produce the annual Index of Leading Environmental Indicators. I'm scanning the 2008 Report. It shows that the environmental record of the United States is a lot better than generally assumed. It also points out the difficulties in meeting the enviro-zealots' target of reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 80% by 2050; It would cripple economic growth. 4. "DNA Tests Offer Deeper Examination Of Accused," by Rick Weiss in the Washington Post last weekend. It examines the increased use of genetics as evidence (including determining whether defendants have certain predispositions) in criminal trials. 5. "The Delights of Dullness," in the current Economist looks at Brasil's economy -- the reasons for optimism despite the failure to capitalize on the country's natural advantages in the past and the systemic political problems that persist. And here is their editorial on the issue, "An economic superpower, and now oil too." Thursday, April 24, 2008
Emery & abortion Marc Emery writes for Matthew Johnston's The Western Standard about his vasectomy (when he was 20) and his girlfriend's second-trimester abortion (when they were 17). So you can call Marc either the Prince of Pot or the Sultan of Sterilization. All joking aside, the column is as repugnant as you would imagine it to be. And Emery throws out a silly argument about re-criminalizing abortion (that it would result in the prosecution of 100 million Americans because there is no statute of limitations on homicide) near the end of his three-page 'what I did during my summer' type column. When all else fails, blame racism From a so-called news article in the New York Times: "Is the Democratic Party hesitating about race as it moves to the brink of nominating an African-American to be president?" Me on rising food prices My article on "Food crisis or opportunity" in the May issue of Report magazine was submitted months ago, months before there was daily news coverage of rising food prices. Needless to say, I'm not nearly as pessimistic as the media herd or self-interested global do-gooders. Here is the important point: "The International Food Policy Research Institute says that despite droughts and floods, the food supply is increasing; the problem is that demand is increasing faster. That is a good sign, though, for the hundreds of millions in emerging economies that can now afford a decent meal. It is also good for farmers who have struggled with low prices for more than a decade. Like the prices for most commodities, food prices rise and fall. For now, Canadian farmers will reap the benefits, and consumers will have to pay more at the grocery store. But if history has shown us anything, it is that the pessimists are repeatedly proven wrong because over time markets are self-correcting, and the pain for consumers and good times for farmers will inevitably end. Until the next time." Worrying trend for males in Kinshasa -- and what it means for the future of Africa Headline: "Penis theft panic hits city." The story: "Police in Congo have arrested 13 suspected sorcerers accused of using black magic to steal or shrink men's penises after a wave of panic and attempted lynchings triggered by the alleged witchcraft. Reports of so-called penis snatching are not uncommon in West Africa, where belief in traditional religions and witchcraft remains widespread, and where ritual killings to obtain blood or body parts still occur. Rumours of penis theft began circulating last week in Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of Congo's sprawling capital of some 8 million inhabitants. They quickly dominated radio call-in shows, with listeners advised to beware of fellow passengers in communal taxis wearing gold rings. Purported victims, 14 of whom were also detained by police, claimed that sorcerers simply touched them to make their genitals shrink or disappear, in what some residents said was an attempt to extort cash with the promise of a cure." Do development types take into account the weird (primitive) beliefs of the locals when they talk about how to modernize Africa? Just wondering. This reminds me of a talk I heard some years ago by a medical doctor who worked in Africa. He said if any proof were needed of the inherent superiority of the West (of the idea of the West -- not of whites over blacks) one simply had to acknowledge that no one in North America or Europe thinks that having sex (read: raping) pre-pubescent girls, preferably infants and toddlers, will cure AIDS, whereas in much of Africa south of the Sahara, having sex with such a virgin is expected to provide a miracle cure for the symptoms of AIDS. As I implied earlier, it is not merely resource (mis)management, corruption and the lack of property rights that is ruinous to parts of the undeveloped world (and I am deliberately using that phrase in more than once sense). It is customs and ideas. Very primitive ones. Wednesday, April 23, 2008
Two really good columns on politics Washington Post columnist Michael Gerson writes about John McCain's infamous bad temper. He relates several stories (from McCain's autobiographical material and other well-reported incidents) that demonstrate that McCain has a bad temper. But this bad temper is 1) not a concern, contra Senator Robert Smith, that he will lead the US into trouble internationally and 2) not demonstrably a bad thing because it is intricately tied to his moral outrage, which is a political asset for him. Dick Morris and Eileen McGann's New York Post column on why Hillary Clinton won Pennsylvania but that it doesn't actually help her is also worth reading. They note that Clinton won because it was a closed primary (Democrats only) and that Pennsylvania is an atypical state (there are more seniors in the Keystone State than any other state except Florida). But there is an important difference between Pennsylvania and Florida: "Florida's elderly moved there - Pennsylvania's are the folks that are left after the young people moved away." Barack Obama will do much better in the next states, including North Carolina and Indiana, will maintain his lead (if not grow it), get closer to the necessary number of delegates, and force the superdelegates to accept the popular Democratic vote or risk a rebellion within the party. I can come up with possible, if not plausible scenarios where Hillary Clinton can convince the superdelegates to give her the nomination, but they are highly unlikely. Would the safe in safe, legal and rare include not being sexually assaulted? There are dozens of these types of cases, but here is the latest example of an abortion provider providing some unwanted sexual advances -- or as the law likes to call it, sexual assault. The BBC reports: "A doctor at a Norfolk hospital sexually assaulted a 13-year-old patient after telling her she was pregnant, a court has heard. Rashid Sandhu, 30, of Welling, Kent, who denies sexual assault, worked at James Paget Hospital, Gorleston. Norwich Crown Court heard he massaged the girl's breasts with gel claiming to be carrying out an abortion. Police also found more than 100 images of child pornography on Mr Sandhu's laptop computer, the court heard. Jurors were told Mr Sandhu asked the girl if he could take a photograph of her naked body and said he sometimes got a bit 'horny'." Outsourcing American manufacturing? Stats from the US Commerce Department, noted by Daniel Griswold at the Cato-at-Liberty blog, show that Americans still produce lots of things: • 4,522 complete civil aircraft and 12,299 complete civil aircraft engines. • 87 million metric tons of raw steel and 113 million tons of shipped steel products. • 11,260,300 cars and light trucks. • 26,925,715 million computers (digital, analog, hybrid, and other). • 11,966,177 household refrigerators and refrigerator-freezers. • 9,993,990 washing machines. • 7,654,882 water heaters (electric and non-electric). • 7,402,333 dishwashing machines. • 6,004,765 household gas and electric ranges. • 1,399,938 clothes dryers. • 1.93 billion square yards of carpet and rugs. • 11.4 million short tons of chlorine gas, 8.9 million tons of sodium hydroxide, 4.7 million tons of hydrochloric acid, and another 2.6 million tons of commercial aluminum sulfate, sodium sulfate, finished sodium bicarbonate, and sodium chlorate. • 1,537.7 million gallons of paints and allied products at $13.60 a gallon. • $127 billion worth of pharmaceutical preparations (except biologicals). And, as Griswold notes, the bad news for Democrats is that this is a good thing for the US economy: "The real beef of the Democratic candidates and their union allies is that all that stuff was made with fewer unionized workers than in years passed. We can make more and better things with fewer workers because of soaring productivity." Government employs 10% of Canadians Lee Harding at the Canadian Taxpayer Federation's blog: "The welfare state should have peaked in the 70's, writes Business Edge's D'Arcy Jenish. However, it continues to grow. Today 3.3 million work in the public sector in Canada, more than 10 percent of the population. Technology, which allows businesses to do more with less people, failed to make the government any smaller. And, even if programs don't work anymore, they often still continue." As Jenish notes, the public sector grew by 175,000 employees over the past five years: "The feds and the provinces combined accounted for a little over 33,000 of the new hires. The health and social services sectors grew by a whopping 48,517. Local school boards were up by 43,208, universities and colleges by 28,152 and municipalities by 27,519." Part of the reason for this increase in the size of government employment is, Jenish hypothesizes, "Governments believe that they need to keep pace with population growth if they are to deliver adequate public service." Does anyone in the country believe public services rise to the level of adequate? Anyway, were it not for the public service, our unemployment rate would be significantly higher. Tuesday, April 22, 2008
What would Professor Smith think of Earth Day I'm just wondering considering they share the day. Sure, for some it is Earth Day. And for many of those same people, it is also V.I. Lenin's birthday. But April 22 also marks the day Adam Smith was appointed professor at the University of Glasgow in 1752. The Adam Smith Institute marks the day with this blog post which notes that Smith was much more than an economist. Buy Steyn and help the Freedom Five Kathy Shaidle has details and links. Buy your Mark Steyn books on April 23 and proceeds will help defer the legal costs of five bloggers/journalists being sued by Richard Warman. Free Ignorance Steven D. Levitt says the Mumia Abu-Jamal industry has had tremendous success winning supporters in Hollywood and among multiple generations of university students but "has been somewhat less successful in the court room." Thank God. Levitt notes that people who wear Free Mumia t-shirts and others who take up the convicted murderer's cause might benefit from knowing about the case. Levitt takes note of Murdered by Mumia, written by Maureen Faulkner and Michael Smerconish. Faulkner is the widow of Danny Faulkner, the police officer murdered by Mumia Abu-Jamal. He quotes this part recalling Maureen Faulkner seeing a college student at a gas station: "As I pumped gas, a young man, a white kid who looked college age, pulled up behind me. He was wearing a T-shirt that read 'Free Mumia Abu-Jamal,' and it immediately caught my eye. I walked up and asked him where he got the T-shirt. He said he was a student at U.C.L.A. and they had recently held a rally for Abu-Jamal. I asked him if he knew anything about the case in which Abu-Jamal was involved. He said, 'Well, I know that this guy was a Black Panther who was railroaded. Someone else shot a police officer and he was framed for it.' I cringed when he went on with the usual recitation of misinformation being spun by the Abu-Jamal defenders: a peaceful black activist, a social dissident, hostile white police force, F.B.I. surveillance, conned eyewitness accounts, phony ballistics, etc. I heard him out and offered to provide him with the actual facts of the case. He politely declined my offer. Before I left, I suggested that when he wore a political statement on his chest he would be well served if he knew his facts, because you never know when you might run into the widow of the officer. I left him in stunned silence." Releasing Frank Thomas: a typically bad Jays move The New York Sun's Tim Marchman called the weekend release of Toronto Blue Jays DH Frank Thomas the lowest point of J.P. Ricciardi’s tenure as team general manager -- and that's saying a lot. Joe Sheehan at Baseball Prospectus (subscription required) also thinks it is a ridiculously stupid move. The problem with dropping Frank Thomas at this point is making a judgement about a player over a small sample size (two weeks worth of games). They got rid of a player rather dishonestly saying it was because of his play, not the $10 million Thomas would make in 2009 if he obtained a little more than 300 at-bats over the rest of the season. As Marchman notes, "Thomas is hitting .167; to say that he looks done is just to offer a tautology. No one looks good when they’re hitting .167." Do the Jays -- does Ricciardi -- really think playing a third-string catcher, Rod Barajas, at DH is better than playing Thomas. The career on-base percentage of Barajas is about 15 points lower than Thomas' career batting average and at 32 Barajas is not likely to suddenly improve. It is possible considering his age (he turns 40 next month) and size (large) that Thomas has all of a sudden become a useless hitter. But 60 at-bats is hardly enough on which to make this judgement; that's a small sample size. Over those 60 at-bats, Thomas has contributed to a pair of victories over the Boston Red Sox, once with a 5th inning grand slam. But the fact is the decision to dump Thomas, assuming you are buying Ricciardi's rationale, wasn't even based on that small 60 at-bat sample size. A week into the season, as Sheehan points out, Thomas was hitting a productive (if peculiar) 240/296/640 (BA/OBP/SLG) over 27 plate appearances. Since then, he has been awful: 4 for 35, no extra-base hits and 10 walks over nine games. That's a horrible 114/311/114 -- dreadful average and slugging percentage but a slight uptick in on-base percentage. But here's the thing: you cannot assess a hitter over nine games. You especially cannot do it for a veteran with a history of slow starts. As Sheehan notes: "It’s not like he hit .097/.243/.129 in a stretch of 37 PA last April, then went on to hit .285/.382/.500 afterwards. No, wait, that happened. Of course, that’s another small sample size. It’d be something else if, in 72 PA, he hit .154/.236/.323. That would be meaningful. He could never come back from that and hit .289/.403/.575 the rest of the way. What? He did that in 2006? Boy, I don’t know. Keep reading things like this, and you’d think that stretches of ineffectiveness weren’t all that meaningful when put up against Thomas’ career. But that would mean the Blue Jays had made a bad baseball decision, and that doesn’t seem…. No, wait." It was an unimaginably bad decision and one that could land a near-elite bat in the hands of an American League competitor battling for a playoff spot. I'd predict he ends up in the American League West (Seattle Mariners, Oakland A's or Texas Rangers) and not the Jays' direct rivals of the BoSox or Yankees, but it is still a colossal and short-sighted mistake -- and one that is all too typical of the J.P. Ricciardi regime. Gerry Fraley at The Sporting News says releasing Thomas is the right move because it allows them to bring Adam Lind back to the majors and move Shannon Stewart to platoon with Matt Stairs at DH. If the goal is to get Lind onto the major league roster, they could have done that by releasing/trading Stewart, a far inferior bat than Thomas. Paying no heed to the dangers of putting too much value on small sample sizes, Fraley called Thomas 'deadweight' saying that there was no indication that he "was going to break out of the slump" -- ignoring that he has done it before. But neither is there any indication that he wasn't going to break out of the slump either. Ricciardi made a boneheaded move because that is what Ricciardi has done. Ideas matter most From Rupert Murdoch's speech to the Washington D.C.-based Atlantic Council: "As a man who was born in Australia, went to university in Britain, and made my home in America, I have learned that shared values are more important than shared borders. If we continue to define 'the West' or 'the Alliance' as a strictly geographical concept, the alliance will continue to erode. But if we define the West as a community of values, institutions and a willingness to act jointly, we will revive an important bastion of freedom and make it as pivotal in our own century as it was in the last." Pill pushers and Plan B Andrea Mrozek wonders about the wisdom of making Plan B, a so-called emergency contraception pill, more easily available and suggests that teenage girls are likely to utilize the drug even when they are not pregnant, just as a precaution. Perhaps not the best last-minute political push WorldNetDaily reports on a taped interview on Good Morning America: "As Pennsylvania voters go to the polls in a primary widely regarded as do-or-die for Sen. Hillary Clinton's presidential campaign, the New York Democrat apparently is positioning herself to the right of some Republicans, vowing that if Iran attacks Israel with nuclear weapons, she would respond in kind against Tehran, with the ability to 'totally obliterate them'." In what country is Hillary Clinton running for president? Is it wise for a Democrat to out-neocon the neocons? Happy Earth Day! Let's make it a holiday. Festivities could include beating corporate leaders like a pinata and taking food out of the hands of starving people to recycle as ethanol. Ain't green grand? Green: deadly, vindictive, hypocritical. Consider how much environmentalists want to limit your freedom until it bumps up against their own agenda. As Iain Murray, author of The Really Inconvenient Truths: Seven Environmental Catastrophes Liberals Don't Want You to Know About – Because They Helped Cause Them, notes in today's TAS Online: "Yet Liberals don't always demand coercive regulations in the name of environmental protection, if it doesn't suit them. For example, today, synthetic estrogen is adversely affecting river and lake fish populations. Synthetic estrogen comes from birth control pills in vast amounts, yet is ignored by activists who instead call for controls on chemicals present in much smaller amounts that have much less effect. Why? One environmental activist called it a "personal freedom issue" -- as if liberals never call for restrictions on those." Murray has more on the environmental problems with contraception at NRO. Back at TAS, Murray also warns that many of the government-imposed solutions will make things worse (if history and common sense are any indication). Two recent examples is that ethanol is an inefficient alternative to gasoline and rail creates more greenhouse gases per passenger mile than automobiles. Of course, on Earth Day none of this matters. The whole day, like all of green politics, is about feeling good about oneself. So feel good and be thankful that vanity and pride do not emit carbon dioxide. Monday, April 21, 2008
Stop taxing the poor Tim Worstall, a Fellow at the Adam Smith Institute, writes in the London Times about the idiocy of taxing poor people who receive government benefits: "Fortunately my fellow bleeding- heart classical liberals over at the Adam Smith Institute have a solution: simply take the poor out of the income tax net altogether by raising the personal allowance from its present rate of £5,435 to £12,000, perhaps even £14,000. To tax the dustman to provide the Duke's opera, or the nursery nurse to feed the Navy, as we do, might be objectionable, but to tax the poor so that bureaucrats can give money to the poor is simply ludicrous. We should stop doing it." The call to increase the personal allowance is in the ASI's proposal for a flat tax, "A Flat Tax for the UK -- A Practical Reality." Shouldn't we have to pay for a second bag? The New York Times reports that several of the larger airlines will begin charging for a second checked-in piece of luggage. The article notes: "As the airlines struggle to stay in the black, charges for amenities formerly included in the ticket price are on the rise. Depending on the carrier, travelers now can wind up paying extra for everything from food to curbside check-in to bulkhead seats that offer extra legroom." These are all extra services -- services on top of the flight to the desired destination -- that airplanes offer. It only makes sense that you would pay for them. Yet there might be unintended consequences: "As for the extra-bag fee, even those who say they pack lightly for their trips foresee problems caused by price-sensitive fliers overfilling their carry-on bags and using large amounts of scarce overhead-bin space." Which means it will probably be just a matter of time until passengers pay per pound for the luggage, both of the check-in and carry-on variety. This might create room for a single-fee-for-all-services carrier or division. The point is that if the system airlines adopt is not terribly popular, the market should take care of it. Friends, enemies and dissing the sisters Bryan Caplan examines the issue of why Sylvia Hewlett's Creating a Life: Professional Women and the Quest for Children was not a commercial success: "I really enjoyed Sylvia Hewlett's Creating a Life, but feminists were outraged. (Check out all the 1-star reviews on Amazon). Normally, I'd expect all this negative publicity to be great for sales. All publicity is good publicity, right? But Hewlett's sales were disappointing: A year ago, combined hardback plus paperback sales were only 13,000, despite lots of media coverage. What gives? My best guess: Despite some contrarian views on feminism, Hewlett is a typical liberal intellectual. (She even co-authored a book with Cornel West). The upshot is that she didn't have the social connections to cash in on the outrage of her feminist critics. If Hewlett had been part of the 'vast right-wing conspiracy,' she would have had prominent allies to jump to her defense, and help her sell copies. But not only did she lack these social ties; her book included a detailed wish list of leftist labor market regulations, and ended with a dismissive remark about 'conservative ideologues.' Say goodbye to a plug from Rush Limbaugh, even if the 'feminazis' do hate you. Hewlett's problem, in short, was stepping on the toes of people on her side of the fence. When they cried foul, she was on her own. The lesson: If you want to get all the publicity you deserve, make sure you're friendly with the enemies of your enemies. Almost all publicity can be transformed into good publicity, but you can't do it alone." Hewlett makes an important point but he misses another: Feminists do not allow heterodoxy. Women must speak with one voice, forever and always and those women, including fellow feminists who sing from a different hymnal are kicked out of their church. Drinking coffee efficiently EclectEcon says drink it with a straw. Fewer spills, doesn't obstruct one's view while driving, no unsightly coffee drips down the side of the cup. But doesn't drinking hot drinks with a straw increase chances of burning oneself? Welfare: inefficient and cruel The Daily Mirror reports: "A 'why bother?' economy has been created in Britain which has left thousands with no motivation to work, a report published today concludes. Successive governments have encouraged a welfare culture that has left every family facing a £1,300 bill because the poor stay poor, it claims. The findings by the public services think tank Reform suggest that increased welfare dependency has made it more difficult for those on the lowest incomes to do better. An education system with a 'dismal record' of educating the poorest, and a complex welfare system, have together created a far more divided society than other European countries, it finds... It [the study] concludes: 'The unintended consequence has been a 'why bother?' economy in which a significant minority do not have the capability or motivation to succeed'." The study, "Shifting the unequal state: From public apathy to personal capability," can be here. The take away statistic is that six million British households have no income earner. And because anecdote is the singular of data, check out this Daily Mirror story on the McFaddens, three generations -- and ten people -- living under one roof, drawing about £32,000 a year. Says family matriarch Sue McFadden, "Our neighbours are so snobby - they call us the "Shameless" family and say that we ought to go out to work. But how can we work when we have all these children to look after?" Last year, in a study entitled Working Welfare, the Adam Smith Institute examined welfare reform that worked in the United States in the 1990s and proposed adopting some of the measures in the United Kingdom. Sunday, April 20, 2008
Strange bedfellows WorldNetDaily.com reports that Richard Mellon Scaife's Pittsburgh paper has endorsed Hillary Clinton and that the primary funder of th VRWC has changed his mind about Hillary Clinton: "Richard Mellon Scaife, formerly No. 1 on Bill Clinton's enemies list as the so-called 'marionette' of the 'vast right-wing conspiracy,' today formally endorsed Hillary Rodham Clinton for president – proving, once again, politics makes strange bedfellows. Scaife, who personally funded many of the investigations of the Clinton administration that led to the president's impeachment, used his Pittsburgh Tribune-Review newspaper to express support for Clinton. Clinton faces a do-or-die primary in Pennsylvania Tuesday. Most state newspapers have endorsed her opponent, Barack Obama. The Tribune-Review cited Obama's lack of experience and his widely criticized comments about bitter voters living in small towns. 'In sharp contrast, Clinton is far more experienced in government – as an engaged first lady to a governor and a president, as a second-term senator in her own right,' the paper's editorial said. 'She has a real voting record on key issues. Agree with her or not, you at least know where she stands instead of being forced to wonder.' As surprising as the endorsement might appear, it is not entirely unexpected. Last month, Clinton met with the Tribune-Review's editorial board and Scaife, who also is a principle owner of NewsMax.com. Following that meeting, Scaife penned a personal editorial titled "Hillary, Reassessed," declaring how impressed he had been by the former first lady. 'Her meeting and her remarks during it changed my mind about her,' Scaife wrote." Here's my own conspiratorial take on this development: Scaife relishes the idea of four more years of digging up the dirt on the Clintons and having his media empire disseminate what they find. Against Fed mission creep George F. Will writes in today's Washington Post that the Federal Reserve should keep to its original role and not try to head off a recession: "The Fed has no mandate to be the dealmaker for Wall Street socialism. The Fed's mission is to preserve the currency as a store of value by preventing inflation. Its duty is not to avoid a recession at all costs; the way to get a big recession is to engage in frenzied improvisations because a small recession, a.k.a. a correction, is deemed intolerable. The Fed should not try to produce this or that rate of economic growth or unemployment." Why not? Because it would send the wrong economic signals: "A surge of inflation might mean the end of the world as we have known it. Twenty-six percent of the $9.4 trillion of U.S. debt is held by foreigners. Suppose they construe Fed policy as serving an unspoken (and unspeakable) U.S. interest in increasing inflation, which would amount to the slow devaluation -- partial repudiation -- of the nation's debts. If foreign holders of U.S. Treasury notes start to sell them, interest rates will have to spike to attract the foreign money that enables Americans to consume more than they produce." Gun owners make happy Americans So says Arthur C. Brooks in the Wall Street Journal, contra Barack Obama's fundraising pandering to San Francisco elites. Says Brooks: "According to the 2006 General Social Survey, which has tracked gun ownership since 1973, 34% of American homes have guns in them. This statistic is sure to surprise many people in cities like San Francisco – as it did me when I first encountered it. (Growing up in Seattle, I knew nobody who owned a gun.) Who are all these gun owners? Are they the uneducated poor, left behind? It turns out they have the same level of formal education as nongun owners, on average. Furthermore, they earn 32% more per year than nonowners. Americans with guns are neither a small nor downtrodden group. Nor are they 'bitter.' In 2006, 36% of gun owners said they were 'very happy,' while 9% were 'not too happy.' Meanwhile, only 30% of people without guns were very happy, and 16% were not too happy. In 1996, gun owners spent about 15% less of their time than nonowners feeling "outraged at something somebody had done." It's easy enough in certain precincts to caricature armed Americans as an angry and miserable fringe group. But it just isn't true. The data say that the people in the approximately 40 million American households with guns are generally happier than those people in households that don't have guns." Things are bad for the GOP when... Democrats have a chance to win Indiana. So say Indianapolis Star opinion editor Tim Swarens in the pages of this weekend's Wall Street Journal. He says: "[T]here are some broad trends at work. One of them is that the candidates' campaign blitzes across the state are swelling the voter registration rolls – they are up nearly 10% since 2006. There are about 400,000 new voters, and this despite a purge by the Indiana secretary of state's office of tens of thousands of outdated registrations. About half of these new voters registered this year. They got involved after it became clear that there would be a real Democratic horse race. David Plouffe, Mr. Obama's national campaign manager, gave me this prediction while at a stop in Indianapolis recently: 'We have the organization and the financial ability to stretch the map [in November].' If Mr. Plouffe is being a little presumptuous, it may only be because there is more at play in Indiana than a little excitement surrounding the two Democratic candidates. The elephant in this living room is the state's economy, and the void on the right of a central narrative of how to turn things around. The state has lost some 98,000 manufacturing jobs since 2000. And many of the replacement jobs workers are finding pay less and offer less in health care and retirement benefits than their old factory jobs. Republicans can still perform well here (as President Bush proved in 2004). After all, it is probably unrealistic to expect to hold onto old-economy jobs. But someone has to explain to those who are looking for better paying work just how the new economy will be to their benefit... To win, Mr. McCain needs to fill in the void that follows such a summation of the state's economy. The anxiety is real. Subprime woes can be found everywhere, but Indiana's home-foreclosure and personal-bankruptcy rates are consistently among the highest in the nation. And inflation – represented in the rise of food, gasoline and other essentials – bleeds consumers. November is still a long way off. And it is still a long shot for either Mrs. Clinton or Mr. Obama to win this state... But over the past two years, voters have surprised Indiana incumbents in both parties. In 2006, Republicans took a pounding in congressional races. They had controlled seven of the state's nine seats in the House. After the Democratic wave, they held four. Last year, Indianapolis's Democratic Mayor Bart Peterson, once a shoo-in to win a third term, took the brunt of voter anger. He was ousted from office by voters incensed over sharp increases in local property and income taxes." Gordon on poker Very interesting Q&A at Freakonomics with Phil Gordon, one of my favourite poker players to watch on TV. He talks about strategy (both poker and rock-paper-scissors), his fellow players, the ridiculousness of the US government banning internet poker through the Safe Port Act, and why poker has become popular. But the best sentence, by far, comes from former poker player Mike Roddy in the comment section: "People who can succeed in poker almost invariably would have happier and more affluent lives had they marshalled the discipline to pursue something more prosaic." Green reality vs. green perceptions Nigel Hannaford in the Calgary Herald: "For, if polls are any guide, Canadians seem to love the environment more than they know about it, and are broadly unaware that things are getting better, not worse. For instance, an Environment Canada poll taken last year found 76 per cent of Canadian respondents thought environmental regulations were too weak, and favoured various green levies on manufacturers for the purpose of fighting pollution. On the other hand, a 2006 poll revealed that although 89 per cent of Canadians had heard of the Kyoto Protocol -- it was much in the news in the run-up to the election -- more than two-thirds of them said they knew nothing about it. This despite a widespread belief reported by Leger, that global warming 'will destroy the Earth.' And in 2004, the Fraser Institute noted what it termed 'a strong disconnect between Canadian student perceptions of environmental trends (mostly negative) and the reality of environmental trends (mostly positive).' A certain amount of the Canadian split personality about the environment is just human nature. Some people consider themselves realists, and heaven knows, realists are happiest when the facts are least appetizing. Others just enjoy a good scare; I have often wondered if the gene that makes you like slasher movies doesn't also rev you up when NASA says an asteroid is closing in on the Earth, or Al Gore says we're all going to drown. And, of course, if you're looking for government funds, the tap opens wider to the degree government thinks people are anxious. All of this leads to increased public interest, but not necessarily accurate perception." He then lists some facts about the environment: According to Environment Canada's National Environmental Indicator Series, noxious emissions are decreasing. In the 1990s, mercury to air was cut 77% and sulphur dioxide emissions in Eastern Canada fell by half over the past 30 years. According to the Canadian Environmental Sustainability Indicators in 2007, between 1990 and 2002 manufacturers used one third less energy to produce each unit of goods and services, 42% more households use of low-flow showerheads than did in 1994 and three times more households use compact fluorescent bulbs. According to Environment Canada's Municipal Water Use Report, per-capita water use decreased six litres from 2001 to 2004. Statistics Canada says technological improvements in vehicles have reduced total carbon monoxide emissions 82.6% between 1974 and 2001 despite an increase in automobiles. And as Hannaford notes, "ambient lead levels in the atmosphere are now too small to be worth measuring." An early Happy Earth Day -- and there is reason to be happy. Canadians are making real progress on the environmental issues that matter. Saturday, April 19, 2008
The ladies at ProWomanProLife.org note a discussion that, frankly, shouldn't be taking place anymore. A letter writer to the Ottawa Citizen says: "Please, isn’t it about time to use the correct 21st century medical nomenclature. A fetus is not a baby any more than a man’s sperm or a woman’s ova is a baby." As Andrea Mrozek says: "Er, actually, there’s a big difference between sperm and a baby, and an egg and a baby. Modern man: You’d think we’d have nailed down the birds and bees by now." Indeed, Andrea gets to something that novelist and physician Walker Percy noted 27 years ago in a column for the New York Times in which he pointed out that the side that denies the humanity of the child to defend abortion is the one who holds a medieval view of pre-born life: "The current con, perpetrated by some jurists, some editorial writers, and some doctors is that since there is no agreement about the beginning of human life, it is therefore a private religious or philosophical decision and therefore the state and the courts can do nothing about it. This is a con. I will not presume to speculate who is conning whom and for what purpose. But I do submit that religion, philosophy, and private opinion have nothing to do with this issue. I further submit that it is a commonplace of modern biology, known to every high school student and no doubt to you the reader as well, that the life of every individual organism, human or not, begins when the chromosomes of the sperm fuse with the chromosomes of the ovum to form a new DNA complex that thenceforth directs the ontogenesis of the organism. Such vexed subjects as the soul, God, and the nature of man are not at issue. What we are talking about and what nobody I know would deny is the clear continuum that exists in the life of every individual from the moment of fertilization of a single cell. There is a wonderful irony here. It is this: The onset of individual life is not a dogma of the church but a fact of science. How much more convenient if we lived in the 13th century, when no one knew anything about microbiology and arguments about the onset of life were legitimate. Compared to a modern textbook of embryology, Thomas Aquinas sounds like an American Civil Liberties Union member. Nowadays it is not some misguided ecclesiastics who are trying to suppress an embarrassing scientific fact. It is the secular juridical-journalistic establishment." Friday, April 18, 2008
The TTC strike Publius at Gods of the Copybook Headings on the impending TTC strike: "Mr. Davis, Brampton Billy as he was once known, gave public sector employees the right to strike, the most expensive "civil liberty" in this province's history. Mr. Davis was fond of saying that the buck stopped with him, even if he never got around to explaining exactly how the buck was being stopped and at what price to the taxpayers. The buck has now stopped at David Miller's desk - the current Premier, a Norman Bates look-alike with Bill Davis pretensions , is of course evading the issue. The Mayor is to be applauded for not immediately caving into union demands. Possessing a well known sense of drama, Mr. Miller is perhaps waiting for Sunday morning, the union's deadline, to cave in. The TTC, for those who dwell in the land beyond Steeles, is not simply the public transit system of Toronto, it is the city's respiratory system. 1.5 millions of the city's 2.5 million residents use it everyday. There is no alternative for most. A week long strike would literally slow the economic growth of the entire country. Knowing this the unions knows the strike will last, if it comes, a day or two, and then either they will give or be forced back to work by the province as an 'essential service.' This is kabuki theater without the grace and elegance imparted by the Japanese. The solution? Let time run back. The TTC was created in 1917 by the city government purchasing several private transit companies, companies that had served the city well for over seventy years, on the grounds of aiding the common good. A state owned transit system would be cheaper and more efficient than a private sector system, so the argument went. The new entity almost immediately hiked rates and cut service. It is a tradition it carries down to this day, as bits of roof fall onto subway tracks and fare collectors collect sky-high salaries with their tokens." My bet is that once union-friendly mayor McCheese returns from Red China, the capitulation will begin. It might not be at the Sunday deadline, but I'll eat my now useless monthly TTC pass if this labour dispute is not 'settled' by midweek and normal service returned on Wednesday morning. Perspective I have a hard time caring about the silly things most politicians argue about and the media covers in Canada and the United States when people in Haiti are reduced to eating mud. (HT: Marginal Revolution) No matter what's wrong/corrupt/not-working etc... in the West, we live relatively well off and relatively free compared to most parts of the world. There are exceptions -- the unborn are at risk everywhere and native Indians live in third world conditions -- but these are exceptions. (Too much ignored exceptions.) To remind readers, most people who live on welfare in North America live better than royalty did a century and a half ago. And as Kathy Shaidle noted in her book Acoustic Ladyland in a column on what she learned at Catholic school, no you're not actually starving. But the people in Haiti are. This all makes phony discussions about distinct society and even tax rates seem a little less important by comparison. Gerson on the Catholic Church Michael Gerson in today's Washington Post: "As the Catholic writer G.K. Chesterton argued, men and women are either created in 'the image of God' or they are 'a disease of the dust.' If human beings are merely the sum of their physical attributes -- the meat and bones of materiality -- they are easier to treat as objects of exploitation. So Catholicism offers a second contribution: It is the main defender of human dignity against a utilitarian view of human worth. And the church has applied this high view of man with remarkable consistency -- to the unborn and the elderly, the immigrant and the disabled. Individual views on issues of life and death vary widely, even within the Catholic Church. But it is a good thing to have at least one global institution firmly dedicated to the proposition that every growing child, every person living in squalor or in prison, every man or woman approaching death or contemplating suicide or trapped in profound mental disability, every apparently worthless life is not really worthless at all. An institution accused of superstition is now the world's most steadfast defender of rationality and human rights. It has not always lived up to its own standards, but where would those standards come from without it?" UN dysfunction From the New York Sun on preperations for follow-up confab for 2001 U.N. Durban conference against racism, racial discrimination, xenophobia, and intolerance: "Neither America nor Israel is represented on a 20-member preparation committee for the conference, which is scheduled to convene Monday in Geneva under the leadership of Libya. The committee will determine the venue, as well as the size of the budget for the conference, though any decision will require the approval of all the member states. America finances just less than a quarter of the U.N. budget. In a signal that the bias that characterized Durban I is likely to be repeated, Iran is leading a drive to deny accreditation to a human rights advocacy group, the Canadian Council for Israel and Jewish Advocacy, according to U.N. Watch. Canada, the only country so far to announce it will not attend, had 'hoped that the preparatory process for the 2009 Durban Review Conference would remedy the mistakes of the past,' the Canadian foreign minister, Maxime Bernier, said in January. 'We have concluded that, despite our efforts, it will not'." The Heritage Foundation's Brett D. Schaefer has a web memo on the problems with Durban II: "There are numerous troubling signs that the review conference will be a repeat of 2001, including: Oversight by the gravely disappointing U.N. Human Rights Council (HRC). The General Assembly placed responsibility for organizing Durban II with the HRC. The council has been a grave disappointment in fulfilling its role as the premier U.N. human rights body. Since its creation in 2006 to replace the discredited U.N. Commission on Human Rights, the Human Rights Council has failed to address ongoing repression in Belarus, China, Cuba, North Korea, Zimbabwe, and many other places around the world. This is hardly surprising, since the members of the Human Rights Council include Cuba, China, Russia, Saudi Arabia, and other noted human rights abusers. These countries use their influence to undermine efforts by the council to carry out its mandate. While the council has passed relatively mild condemnations of Sudan and Burma, it has saved its strongest criticism for Israel, condemning it in 19 separate decisions and resolutions. Organization by repressive and anti-Semitic governments. The HRC decided that it will act as the Preparatory Committee for Durban II, with Libya as chair, electing 19 other countries to serve on the bureau for the Preparatory Committee that will set the agenda and objectives for the Review Conference. Among the 19 vice-chairs are Cuba, Iran, Pakistan, Russia, and South Africa, none of which has distinguished itself as a champion of equality or human rights during its tenure on the HRC. Libya and Iran are particularly ill-suited to overseeing preparations for Durban II. Both countries are strong supporters of the Organization of the Islamic Conference (OIC), which has historically been hostile to Israel. Libya is also a member of the League of Arab States, whose Arab Charter on Human Rights calls for the elimination of 'Zionism,' and Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has infamously stated that Israel 'must be wiped off the map' and that 'Zionists are the true manifestation of Satan'." Thursday, April 17, 2008
Why only 8.2% of Major League Baseball Players are black This week -- the week that marks the 61st anniversary of Jackie Robinson's first game with the LA Dodgers -- it was reported that just 8.2% of MLB players are black. Mark Kriegel of Fox Sports reports on conversation with black baseball writer Jason Whitlock: "Whitlock offered what, to me, was a striking theory. 'Baseball is a game of fathers and sons in America,' he said. 'You have to be taught the game, and taught an appreciation of the game. There's a crisis in the black community, a total collapse of our family structure and absence of fathers. It's not that surprising we have little interest in baseball.' I'd not thought of this. Though even if I did, as a white guy, I'm not sure I'd feel free to volunteer it in print. As for the question posed on 'Baseball Tonight,' Whitlock brought up Barry Bonds. Until recently, Bonds was the best African-American player in the game. He was taught by his father. Before that, it was Ken Griffey Jr. He, too, had been taught the game by his father." Americans not embracing idea of national health care scheme Rasmussen Reports poll finds: Do you favour or oppose a single payer National Health Insurance Plan overseen by the federal government? Favour: 29% Oppose: 39% Not sure: 31% That 31% unsure number probably indicates a lot of anxiety about individuals' own health care circumstances and costs. But the fact that such anxieties are widely reported and that still fewer than two in ten respondents support a nationalized health care plan as part of the solution speaks volumes about the essential conservatism of Americans. Holy crow, I agree with Warren Kinsella Warren Kinsella says: "Last week in Calgary, I told Tom Flanagan's classes that there was as big a gender split in Canadian politics as there has ever been. Gals, I told the students, don't like Stephen so much - and guys don't like Stephane so much. It's been that way for months. How do the two Steves solve it, one student asked me. I have the same answer as Cherniak: in the campaign. Campaigns matter, and this one will matter for a lot." For all the polls and punditry, campaigns change things a lot. That's why we have them. Recall on the eve of the 2006 election campaign, the media parroted the Liberal line that an election was a waste of time because voters would just return a similar Parliament. Then eight weeks later, Paul Martin's minority government became history. What happened in the intervening eight weeks? A campaign with speeches, news events, issues, debates, gaffes, and other things that focus voters' attention on politics in a way that it doesn't during non-campaign time. Stat of the day -- and does it matter I don't read Harper's but I appreciate Marginal Revolution highlighting this number from the May 2008 Harper's Index: Ratio of the estimated number of fake doctors practicing in Delhi, India, to the number of real ones: 1:1. However, as one commenter to MR noted, what constitutes a fake doctor? Could someone possess a fair bit of medical knowledge but not be properly licensed? And doesn't that person still provide a valuable service to the inhabitants of Delhi? I better leave this post headlineless The BBC reports that male masturbation reduces prostate cancer: "Men could reduce their risk of developing prostate cancer through regular masturbation, researchers suggest. They say cancer-causing chemicals could build up in the prostate if men do not ejaculate regularly. And they say sexual intercourse may not have the same protective effect because of the possibility of contracting a sexually transmitted infection, which could increase men's cancer risk. Australian researchers questioned over 1,000 men who had developed prostate cancer and 1,250 who had not about their sexual habits. They found those who had ejaculated the most between the ages of 20 and 50 were the least likely to develop the cancer. The protective effect was greatest while the men were in their 20s. Men who ejaculated more than five times a week were a third less likely to develop prostate cancer later in life." Two things jump out at me. One, there are always some problems with studies that rely on the recall of participants. Having men discuss how often they ejaculate might be prone to some exaggeration. Two, the positive effect of ejaculation are greater for masturbation that intercourse because, it is hypothesized, of the risk of contracting sexaully transmitted infections that might block the 'flushing effect' or however else this might work to reduce cancer risks; I wonder whether if this study had controlled for sexual partners (married men who remained chaste until marriage) if the results would be any different. I'm not anti-Israel, some of my favourite authors are Jewish Barack Obama discovers a new way of pandering: claiming Phillip Roth and Saul Bellow are two authors that influenced his thinking. Rabbi Leonard Gordon said he found Obama's praise for Roth and Bellow 'inspiring' therefore proving that such adolescent tactics work. Wednesday, April 16, 2008
930 minutes of The Price is Right Four-disc DVD set of The Price is Right covering five decades of the best episodes of the game show. Keith Phipps writes about it at Slate: "Spanning five decades, the episodes in the set suggest that guessing the price of things is an activity Americans will not soon tire of, whether it's Barker or someone else holding the microphone." A few neat things A blog dedicated to the finances of the Florida Marlins. Daft hands on YouTube. Economic geeks from Berkeley do No Dissertation (to the Stones' Satisfaction) and Stronger. A Star Wars PSA against smoking. Pee Wee Herman does a PSA on crack cocaine. Someone mocks Herman's PSA. Tuesday, April 15, 2008
Quote of the day Dennis Prager in a column on how liberalism has changed in recent decades: "Identifying and confronting evil remains the Achilles' heel of liberals, progressives and the rest of the left." Progress LifeSiteNews.com reports: "Governor C.L. "Butch" Otter signed a bill into law on Thursday that makes Idaho the first state to legally forbid individuals from forcing a woman to have an abortion." In 2008 a law is required to protect a woman's right to choose to not have an abortion. Big Brother meets Captain Planet In parts of Sydney, Australia, environmentalist zealots within the government become creepy: "There is revolution going on in waste management, which Big Brother would be proud of. Tucked away under the rim of wheelie bins found in two Sydney councils are small radio frequency tracking devices collecting information on a household's waste habits. Randwick Mayor Bruce Notley-Smith told The World Today they are the way of the future. 'We will be able to find out the weights of the various bins and collect the data, the entire amount, as opposed to the quantity that is recyclable,' he said. The garbage truck reads the data on the bin, weighs the bin, and the data is collated on a computer." This is not merely the garbage police but the latest example of how environmentalism turns into statism. So-called conservatives who embrace climate change theories and want to do something about it, must realize that even by offering free market solutions, they are lending credibility to this insidious socialism. (HT: Lasso of Truth) Could this bring libertarians and conservatives together? Four public policy groups that focus on family issues have released a report that says 'family fragmentation' (divorce and out-of-wedlock births) costs taxpayers $112 billion a year. The costs are incurred as a result of federal, state and local anti-poverty measures (single-parent families are more likely to be poor) and criminal justice and education programs. The authors claim their estimates are low, although the $112 billion number seems a huge number at first glance although in the larger scheme of things -- total government spending or the size of the US economy, it isn't. The takeaway point is that this report quantifies the economic ramifications of the disintegration of family life. The best social program is not, as many conservatives like to say 'a job' but stable families. If libertarians are interested in keeping the cost of government in check, they might want to reconsider the cultural influences on family breakdown (divorce, the contraception mentality, etc...) which they generally support. An executive summary of the report Taxpayer Costs of Divorce and Unwed Childbearing can be found here. A fact sheet is available here. The press release announcing the release of the report today here. See AP's coverage here. Monday, April 14, 2008
Human-cow embryo hybrid From The Niche, a stem cell blog: "Newcastle University says researchers led by Lyle Armstrong have made hybrid embryos containing material from cows and humans. The announcement comes just as the government gears up on whether or not the creation of such embryos should be legal. Newcastle University, which already had approval for the research from UK regulatory authorities, decided to push forward so the research would not risk being stalled by an upcoming vote in the House of Commons, reports the BBC." Comments. 1. Making such hybrids may or may not be legal but the government's regulatory agency okayed it anyway. 2. Researchers get approval before they do make it illegal, therefore thumbing their noses at the government. 3. Human-cow hybrid? Yuck. You'd think for a political strategist, he would understand what motivates voters Warren Kinsella last Friday: "Despite being in week three of a killer cough/cold thing, and therefore at home, I still valiantly did my buddy John Wright's show on CFRB today. Here's what I said, more or less: 'In the US, they are experiencing huge rates of voter participation in the presidential primaries, notwithstanding the fact that the IMF and others are saying they are in a recession that will last into next year. Voters there are excited about their new crop of politicians. 'Meanwhile, up here, we can barely get people out to vote in the March 17 byelections, but we are one of the few nations that will escape a global recession. And voters here are less-than-excited about many of their political choices'." In other words, when things are going badly or perceived to being going badly, people care more about the stakes of politics. In reality, when people are suffering from anxiety over the economy, they seek political answers. When everything is going well, people care less about what Washington might do to/for them. This is common sense and nearly universally recognized. The conclusion that Kinsella draws is that 'bland works' -- a not very insightful insight from a one-time important 'backroom' Grit. Non-issues dominate campaign Hillary Clinton doesn't want to answer questions about the last time she went to church and shot a gun -- at least when she isn't dogged by questions about downing a shot of whiskey. Obama & Clinton on abortion Andrea Mrozek at ProWomanProLife.org: "Obama and Clinton on abortion, here. 'I believe that the potential for life begins at conception,' said Mrs Clinton. 'But for me, it is not only about the potential life, but the other lives involved…' And Obama: Mr Obama said he did not know whether life begins with conception. 'This is something that I have not, I think, come to a firm resolution on… I don’t presume to know the answer to that question,' he said. One position is utilitarian, the other, ill-informed and evasive. But this would be the dividing line in the pro-abortion camp these days, I think. Those who know when life begins and don’t care, and those who maintain life does not begin at conception but rather at some other magical moment, arbitrarily chosen." Best program to stop spread of HIV/AIDS: Fidelity and partner reduction, not condoms The gist of this article in First Things is, as the authors conclude, "What the churches are called to do by their theology turns out to be what works best in AIDS prevention." That is, condoms are not the best way to combat HIV/AIDS. According to Edward C. Green and Allison Herling Ruark, both of the AIDS Prevention Research Project at the Harvard Center for Population and Development Studies: "Thus far, research has produced no evidence that condom promotion—or indeed any of the range of risk-reduction interventions popular with donors—has had the desired impact on HIV-infection rates at a population level in high-prevalence generalized epidemics. This is true for treatment of sexually ?transmitted infections, voluntary counseling and ?testing, diaphragm use, use of experimental vaginal microbicides, safer-sex counseling, and even income-?generation projects. The interventions relying on these measures have failed to decrease HIV-infection rates, whether implemented singly or as a package. One recent randomized, controlled trial in Zimbabwe found that even possible synergies that might be achieved through “integrated implementation” of “control strategies” had no impact in slowing new infections at the population level. In fact, in this trial there was a somewhat higher rate of new infections in the intervention group compared to the control group. The one medical intervention that has now been proven effective according to the highest standards of scientific research is male circumcision, which reduces a man’s risk of HIV transmission by more than half. Lack of male circumcision, along with high rates of long-term concurrent sexual partnerships, likely accounts for the hyperepidemics of southern Africa. But even many advocates of male circumcision believe that it needs to be promoted along with partner ?reduction. Meanwhile, the other interventions that have generally been called “best practices” simply do not seem to work in generalized epidemics, even though they are still applauded loudly at global AIDS conferences, while mention of fidelity and abstinence is received by booing, as Bill Gates discovered at the International AIDS Conference in Toronto in 2006. If we are to progress beyond science-by-popular-acclaim, we must accept that the evidence is much stronger for fidelity or partner reduction than for any of the standard-package HIV-prevention measures—in Africa at least—and so we need to rethink and reprogram AIDS-prevention interventions." Sunday, April 13, 2008
The process is the punishment Deborah Gyapong writes about the nuisance of having to deal with a human rights commission complaint. Catholic Insight was notified in February 2007 that a complaint had been filed against them and it has taken up a lot of time and resources that could have been used writing, editing, improving circulation and other activities associated with running a magazine. Gyapong reports: "Catholic Insight magazine has paid $6,000 in legal fees fighting a human rights "hate" complaint, yet no hearing date is in sight. For a small circulation (3,500 subscribers) conservative specialty magazine, "it has cost us quite a bit," said the magazine's editor, Basilian Father Alphonse de Valk. 'We're getting some donations, fortunately, even though we haven't done anything,' de Valk said in an interview from Toronto. It's not only the money. De Valk said he and staffer Tony Gosgnach have spent an 'enormous amount of time' on the issue since they became aware of the complaint against the magazine a year ago. 'We probably spend three days a week, two people, just keeping up with what's going on in this,' he said. But de Valk remains calm in the face of the complaints. 'Maybe my little problem is something to be endured patiently, maybe we can say a few words of truth before this commission,' he said. 'Nothing is lost in the eyes of God'." (HT: Five Feet of Fury) Worthy Pulitzer  Michael Ramirez of Investor's Business Daily (and formerly of the Los Angeles Times before they canned him a few years back) was won the Pulitzer Prize for editorial cartooning. He is one of the craft's finest. Some of his cartoons can be viewed here. When Ramirez won it in 1994, he said, "editorial cartooning is journalism, not just entertainment" that should strive to make "profound statements." MADD founder disses young military recruits "They are not adult —- that's why they're in the military. They are not adults." Those are the words of Candy Lightner, the founder of Mothers Against Drunk Driving. And that is why, Lightner says, the 'draft age' is 18. (What draft?) Marty Beckerman has more. (HT: (Quotulatiousness) Strange new world From a forum at the Sunday Telegraph on proposed changes to the Britain's Human Fertilisation and Embryology Bill, after deaf parents might have won the right to screen embryonic humans to select elect deaf children: "Opponents have argued that the Bill is discriminatory because it allows parents to create 'designer babies' without inherited genetic conditions but bans parents from selecting a child with a disability." Obama's political tone-deafness The latest from an on-going theme on this blog, that Barack Obama is not ready for the prime time of U.S. politics. He exposes what most liberals believe -- a condescending attitude about middle America -- when he said that working class Americans focus on cultural and social issues like abortion, gun control and immigration because they are bitter about their economic circumstances. Big-time liberals believe that but are smart enough to speak in code. Or as Obama explained, "I didn’t say it as well as I should have." That is, he totally believes what he said, but shouldn't have said it. Expect lots more of such gaffes (defined as by Michael Kinsley as impolitically saying exactly what one believes) before Obama's done. MORE (9:16 AM): In a must-read post at The Corner, Victor Davis Hanson has the original quote and the 'correction' Obama offers and how they mean signficantly different things. Saturday, April 12, 2008
Baseball is a libertarian sport? Fred Schwarz has a fun piece at National Review Online on why baseball is a libertarian sport. (I'm not convinced; I once wrote a piece for the London Free Press on why conservatives like baseball. I wish I had a handy electronic version.) His evidence includes sartorial freedom (minimal rules on how players dress) to the absence of affirmative action (left-handers are virtually prohibited from playing some positions and baseball doesn't do anything to correct that discrimination). It is also the meritocratic of the sports (a quarter rather than half of teams make the playoffs) and the least socialist (no hard salary cap). 'Science is a trajectory toward understanding, not a set of truths' The headline comes from a line in Andrew C. Revkin's New York Times Earth Dot blog about the study in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society by Kerry Emanuel, a MIT climate scientist, who is now skeptical of the connection between global warming and hurricanes. A pdf version of the study is available at Emanuels' website in which he argues that in some cases global warming seems connected to increased cyclone activity but in some cases it doesn't. (See the Houston Chronicle story here.) As Emanuel wrote to Revkin: "The models are telling us something quite different from what nature seems to be telling us. There are various interpretations possible, e.g. a) The big increase in hurricane power over the past 30 years or so may not have much to do with global warming, or b) The models are simply not faithfully reproducing what nature is doing. Hard to know which to believe yet." In other words, as I have often noted, and as Emanuel and Revkin both imply, it would be helpful for both the public's understanding of issues as well as public policy responses to those issues, if science -- or more properly scientists and politicians who use such science -- had more humility. Wells misses the point Paul Wells gets snitty -- because that is what Paul Wells and most other journalists do when they are challenged -- because he thinks that Kate at Small Dead Animals doesn't have a point when comparing the economic/unemployment records of presidents George W. Bush and Bill Clinton. As Wells correctly notes, the comparison is not at the same point in their presidencies. Check the charts and what is notable is that at Clinton's midway point and near the end of the Bush presidency, is not that they are surprisingly similar. And the point is not, as Wells implies, that you should compare apples and apples, as he does so by providing the data from the end of Clinton's presidency, by which time the economy had mostly turned around and unemployment was down. The point is not, as National Review's David Freddoso says, that Democrats are complaining about the economy now but weren't in '96. Nor is the point, made in the charts Wells/SDA/Freddoso point to, that Democrats were not calling for an extension of unemployment benefits under Clinton and are under Bush. No, the point is that the government did not extend benefits in 1996 and the economy fixed itself. The point and lesson is not partisan, but economic. Leave the economy alone. Good-bye to this animal or that A few days ago I watched some news show or another (I think it was 20/20) that was worrying about the loss of a particular kind of rhinoceros. After showing video of a mother and baby rhino, the narrator said it would be a tragedy if the animal disappeared forever. Really? Perhaps it would be something mildly unfortunate, but what tragedy would befall human beings if a species of rhinoceros disappeared. Tyler Cowen made the same point this past week, after reading about biodiversity in Jeffrey Sach's Common Wealth: "But I still cannot articulate to a skeptic exactly what marginal disaster will come if we do not take drastic action to preserve biodiversity." I'd rather not see any particular species disappear, but isn't concern over this animal or another purely emotional, rather than rational? (Unless, of course, it would throw the entire circle of life out of whack.) Top 50 pieces of art  Not all are paintings so this is an interesting list of the World's 50 Best Works of Art by Martin Gayford in the Daily Telegraph. I'm not sure how to compare the apples and oranges of artistic works -- the Terracotta Army of Xi'an and Vermeer's View of Delft -- but it is hard to argue with the inclusion of most of the works on Gayford's although I would have some of the paintings higher. Then again, as Rondi Adamson wondered, "how much weight to give a list that includes Jackson Pollock and Roy Lichtenstein"? Kinda of pro-life but not Newsweek reports on pro-choice evangelicals including Christian minister Adam Hamilton, author of Seeing Gray in a World of Black and White, who says that abortion should be legal. According to Newsweek, Hamilton, "does not call himself 'pro-choice.' He prefers 'pro-life with a heavy heart'." But wouldn't being pro-life with a heavy heart mean supporting a ban on abortion but not wanting to; instead, Hamilton opposes a ban and with little sign of regret. What makes it even stranger is the conclusion of the story: "As for his heavy heart, Hamilton comes by it honestly. Seven years ago he received a letter from a parishioner describing her own teenage pregnancy in the years before Roe, the pressure from her parents to abort and her refusal to do so—in spite of the cost. That letter was from his mother." In other words, as a survivor of the generation that faced abortion, Adam Hamilton apparently doesn't care if others join his lucky ranks. Thursday, April 10, 2008
What the hell? The New York Sun reports: "A new U.N. Human Rights Council official assigned to monitor Israel is calling for an official commission to study the role neoconservatives may have played in the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks." In other words, the Joooooooooz made 'em do it. I've just lost a lot of respect for Tom Flanagan He is having Warren Kinsella speak to some of his classes. Time to reconsider tenure. Extinguishing the flame The Calgary Herald has a fine editiorial on the Olympic torch's world tour and the reaction to it by anti-Beijing protestors. The point is what does one expect when Red China is acting as it is and the rest of the world shrugs. ("Give this much-loved event to tyrants, expect push-back.") Here is the editorial's conclusion: "But, whatever persuaded it, the committee missed the basics. As former Olympian and Toronto bid committee member Larry Cain said, 'The games are about humanity and we are giving it to a regime that treats a lot of their people in an inhumane fashion.' Despite it all, the IOC wants to put the games on continents that have yet to host them: Africa and South America, where rogue regimes outnumber democracies. It is discouraging. To avoid repeats of this embarrassment, IOC members should review the Olympic Charter: The goal of Olympism is 'to place sport at the service of the harmonious development of man, with a view to promoting a peaceful society concerned with the preservation of human dignity.' Had the IOC members done so in 2001, they wouldn't be dealing today with protests about China's role in Tibet and the indignities visited on the Olympic flame -- a symbol of hope and brotherhood, now threatened with being snuffed out." March Interim is up The March edition of The Interim is now online. Some notable articles include: The unbelievable story, orginally broken by the Canadian Taxpayer's Federation, that women who get abortions qualify for employment insurance benefits. Tony Gosgnach looks at the Globe and Mail's continued advocacy of the Order of Canada for Henry Morgentaler. Natalie Hudson examines what news outlets offered serious debate (that is, more than one side of the debate) about the abortion issue during the Morgentaler anniversary. The Harper government's talking points (there is a link to the memo in this story at Free Dominion) on human rights commissions essentially tells Conservative MPs to not talk about HRCs. Meanwhile Keith Martin, a Liberal MP, wants to curb the power of human rights commissions. Gerry Nicholls adds his two cents about the Harper government's attempt to silence MPs on the important issue of freedom of speech. March marks the beginning of Spring and nothing says Spring like the start of hte baseball season. Donald DeMarco takes a look at the whimsical side of baseball. We take note of the Los Angeles Times reporting the ugly side of one abortion business of sexual abuse and medical negligence. And two editorials: one on the meaning of The Passion in today's world and another the importance of The Interim after 25 years of publication. Tuesday, April 08, 2008
Reporter lets his bias show CTV talking head Robert Fife used the term 'knuckle-dragger' to describe social conservatives in the Conservative caucus. I missed this because like millions of Canadians, I usually forego the pleasure of watching the network news. But I followed the links provided by ProWomanProLife.org. The 'news' story that led Fife to throw this invective against people with whom he disagrees is the non-story of a future MP using the term 'faggot' 17 years ago -- more than a full decade before he would scrape the front of his fingers on Parliament Hill. As Small Dead Animals noted in comments to Newsbusters, there was a ridiculous amount of coverage* of Tom Lukiwski's anti-gay comments distracting the media from real issues: "This 17 year old private party tape was the number one story on the news nation wide on April 3rd, trumping the revelations that terrorists in the UK planned to take down 6 passenger liners, including Air Canada flights." You can't even say that the terrorist plot story doesn't have a Canadian angle. What the terrorist story doesn't have, however, is a way to pillory the Tories. * I've counted more than 50 news stories over two days in the Canadian media on Friday and Saturday. Excessive? Maybe a little. Gerry Nicholls on Harper's silence on human rights commission abuses Former National Citizen's Coalition vice president Gerry Nicholls in the March issue of The Interim about how his former boss once defended freedom of speech, but who now refuses to do anything about the HRCs attack on freedom of speech, freedom of the press and freedo of religion: "Of course, it’s not really amnesia. It’s politics. Harper and his political brain trust have come up with a strategy they call 'incrementalism,' meaning they will only advance conservative ideals in tiny, incremental, baby-sized steps. Mind you, if the Tories conclude that conservative ideals might frighten or otherwise offend Canadian voters, they won’t be advanced at all. Any conservative principle, in other words, that is deemed to stand in the way of winning votes is quickly jettisoned. That’s why you never hear Prime Minister Harper really espouse conservative values – any conservative values. That’s why the Conservative government sometimes acts like a Liberal government. And that’s why Prime Minister Harper refuses to defend free expression. Unfortunately, in his mind, defending individual freedom is just another conservative principle that must be sacrificed for the sake of winning power." Me on TV I'll be on Michael Coren tonight on CTS at 8pm, along with Kathy Shaidle of Five Feet of Fury, Ron Grey of the CHP and Dr. Charles McVety of CFAC and the Canada Christian College, to discuss human rights commissions. Sundry items I have spent the past week blogging about baseball -- more than 22,500 words analyzing the 30 teams and making predictions -- so here are a few things that have nothing to do with sports. 1. Is the phrase 'Laissez Faire' a political or dangerous message? David Boaz writes about Starbucks refusal to customize a Starbucks card with the term in the pages of the Wall Street Journal. 2. Condi Rice is trying to dispel rumours that she would be Senator John McCain's running mate this November. Shouldn't McCain work to dispel that rumour? 3. Jon Henley has a long article in The Guardian on the end of the semi-colon. Grab a cup of coffee or other beverage and enjoy. 4. Sunday marked the 40th annivesary of the Liberal Party choosing Pierre Trudeau as its leader. L. Ian MacDonald writes about the event and the prime minister's legacy in the Montreal Gazette although I would debate whether the Charter of Rights belongs on the positive side of the Trudeau ledger. 5. Safe and legal my ass. LifeSiteNews.com reports that one year after Mexico legalized abortion, there have been 6400 abortions, 22 injured women and eight dead mothers. Monday, April 07, 2008
Baseball preview Part VI National League West 1. Los Angeles Dodgers Why they'll win: They are the most talented team in the NL West with a good, young lineup, and a solid rotation. They'll win if new manager Joe Torre plays his best players. If they find they are missing a piece of the puzzle, they have the prospects in the minors to try to find solutions and if that fails, they have the resources to acquire immediate help. The rotation is strong. Brad Penny (16-4, 3.03 in 208 IP), Derek Lowe (12-14, 3.88 ERA in 199.1 IP), and Chad Billingsley (12-5, 3.31 ERA and 141 Ks in 147 IP) make up a fantastic front three. They signed Hiroki Kuroda who went 12-8 with a 3.56 ERA in 179.2 IP with the Hiroshima Carp in Japan last year for the fourth spot. The number five spot belongs to Esteban Loaiza who sported a 5.79 ERA in seven starts between the Oakland A's and LA Dodgers last year. He is holding the spot until Jason Schmidt is ready to return from shoulder surgery or minor leaguer Clayton Kershaw (2.95 ERA and 12.2 Ks/9 IP in A and AA ball last year). He has a good fastball (low 90s) and solid curve. The bullpen is solid with a 3.82 ERA. Takashi Saito had a 1.40 ERA in 63 games and 39 saves, while striking out 78. He throws strikes with all three pitches (a low 90s fastball, curveball and slider). Setting him up is Jonathan Broxton (2.85 ERA and 99 Ks in 82 IP) with an overpowering fastball in the high 90s. Scott Proctor had a 3.65 ERA in 86.1 IP between the Dodgers and Yankees last year. A useful supporting cast sports a good variety of styles and pitches. Russell Martin is probably the best hitting catcher in the NL: 293/374/469 with 19 HRs and 87 RBIs. 1B James Loney has tentatively won the 1B job, having hit 331/381/538 with 15 HRs and 67 RBIs in 344 ABs. Matt Kemp hit 342/373/521 with 10 HRs and 10 SBs in 292 ABs mans the RF while Andre Ethier (284/350/452 with 13 HRs and 32 2Bs in 447 ABs) won the LF job. The Dodgers signed Braves Gold Glove-winning CF Andruw Jones to play between them. Jones had a disappointing 2007, hitting 222/311/423 with 26 HRs, 94 RBIs. He is looking rejuvenate his career in LA. Juan Pierre (293/331/354 with 64 SBs and 96 runs) was last year's starting CF and is probably not even the fourth best outfielder on the roster. OF Delwyn Young hit 382/417/647 in a 19 tryout with the club in 2007. I don't quite understand why SS Rafael Furcal hits leadoff (270/333/354) other than his speed (25 thefts). 2B Jeff Kent is 40 but still a quality hitter who has to be expected to decline significantly although he hit 302/375/500 with 20 HRs. Still, the middle infield are the weak links on this lineup. The Dodgers need to get 3B Andy LaRoche (226/365/312, 20 BBs in 93 ABs, but a 301 BA and 589 SLG in Triple A last season) into the roster, but the team has decided to go with veteran infielder Nomar Garciaparra (283/328/372) who is much more useful off the bench. Why they'll lose: The young talent (Loney, Ethier, Kemp, Andy LaRoche) does not progress as is expected, and Andruw Jones continues with his anemic bat. The ugly: The controversy over third base. Just give the job to LaRoche. The most talented player, not the most expensive (Garciaparra). Unfulfilled need: A reliable fifth starter that eats innings while surrendering a league average ERA would provide some wiggle room between them and the D-backs. Who to watch: Rookie Jonathan Meloan will start in the bullpen but could work his way into the rotation. He has five quality pitches including an 88-94 MPH fastball, a cutter in the high 80s, a knuckle curve, a slider and a 80ish MPH changeup. In 86 career minor league games (including 9 starts) he has struck out 236 batters in 157.2 IP. Prediction: 89-92 wins 2. Arizona Diamondbacks Why they'll win: Good pitching combined with a solid young lineup that should continue to improve and play winning baseball for the foreseeable future. The team has a superior rotation with Brandon Webb (18-10, 3.01 ERA, 194 Ks in 236.1 IP), Dan Haren (15-9, 3.07 ERA, 192 Ks in 222.2 IP with the Oakland A's), Randy Johnson (3.81 ERA and 72 Ks in 56.2 IP before a herniated disc required repair), and Micah Owings (4.30 in 152.2 IP and a good bat for a pitcher). The team has taken a small hit with fourth starter Doug Davis (13-12, 4.25 ERA in 192.2 IP) out for the year after finding out he has thyroid cancer. Rumours have David Wells as a possibility in the Arizona dessert, but there has to be options in the minors better than the 5.00+ ERA 44-year-old. The team traded the NL save leader, Jose Valverde, but have a decent overall bullpen. Right-handers Tony Pena (3.27 ERA, 207 BAA in 85.1 IP), Brandon Lyon (2.68 ERA in 74 IP), Juan Cruz (3.10 ERA and 87 Ks in 61 IP), and Chad Qualls (3.05 ERA, 78 Ks in 82.2 IP) make a solid core, with Lyon the closer for now. Doug Slaten is a left-handed specialist with a 2.72 ERA in 36.1 IP over 61 appearances. LF Eric Byrnes is the best offensive player on the team but he hit a solid but unspectacular 296/353/460 with 21 HRs, 30 2Bs, 50 SBs. Chris Young hit 32 HRs and slugged 468 while stealing 27 bases but only had a 295 OBP and struck out nearly a hundred more times than he walked (141-43). Orlando Hudson has been the best defensive 2B in ball for a while and he has developed a good bat to go with his glove: 294/376/441. 1B Conor Jackson hit 284/368/468 with 15 HRs and 29 2Bs, and more walks (55) than Ks (50) in 415 ABs. Chad Tracy is a useful bench player (264/346/454) when he returns from knee surgery. Why they'll lose: I don't totally believe that last year was a mirage. They were outscored by 20 runs and out-performed their Pythagorean Wins by 11.1 wins, but they were better in the second half of 2007. Still, if it was a mirage, if the team played beyond the real abilities of their players, the Diamondbacks are headed for a massive regression. That said, the D-backs have a habit of doing that; in 2006, they were 11.8 wins better than their Pyth. win record. But the team has no obvious weaknesses. Still, they finished last in the NL in batting average and on-base percentage. They finished 14th out of 16 in runs, homeruns and total bases. Young had a 295 OBP, utility player Chris Burke had a 304 OBP, SS Stephen Drew 313. They will have trouble winning when a third of their lineup isn't getting on base even 30% of the time. The ugly: Randy Johnson's back. The team is not depending on him but it seems the bump from a good team to a division title contending team will require Johnson to contribute 140-180 innings. That's probably not a good bet to occur. Unfulfilled need: A league average starter for the tail end of the rotation or a healthy Randy Johnson. Who to watch: Justin Upton is a rising star. The 2005 first pick overall was rushed through the minors last year and did poorly in his partial season in the big leagues (221/283/364 with just 2 HRs in 140 ABs and a poor adjustment from the infield to RF). But he projects as a 30 HR hitter in the Majors, having hit 309/399/556 in Double A Mobile and 341/433/540 in Visalia in Single A. Prediction: 86-89 wins 3. Colorado Rockies Why they'll win: A solid if slightly over-rated everyday lineup. LF Matt Holliday hit a frightening 340/405/607, 36 HRs, 50 2Bs, 137 RBIs. Rookie of the Year runner-up Troy Tulowitzki hit 291/359/479 with 24 HRs, 33 2Bs, 104 runs and 99 RBIs with top-notch defense. 3B Garrett Atkins hit 301/367/486 with 25 HRs, 35 2Bs and 111 RBI. RF Brad Hawpe hit 291/387/539 with 29 HRs and 119 RBIs. At age 34, 1B Todd Helton is a candidate to decline but he hit 320/434/492 with 17 HRs and 116 BBs. Willy Taveras adds speed (33 SBs in just 97 games) to a team in which only one other player had more than seven. He hit 320/367/381. The team scored nearly a full half run more than the league average and was first in the league in average and OBP, second in runs and homeruns, and fourth in total bases and slugging. Rookie Jayson Nix hit 292/342/451 in Triple A Colorado Springs and takes over 2B where he is expected to be an adequate replacement for Kaz Matsui. Why they'll lose: Pitching is okay but not reliably good and the hitters are likely to regress slightly. The front end of the rotation is comprised of four quality #3 type pitchers, but one might reasonably wonder why any presumed contender would carry Mark Redman (5.71 ERA in 2006 with the Royals and 11.63 with the Braves last season) as the fifth starter. Francis is over-rated and not the kind of impact ace you need at the front of the rotation. His 4.22 ERA in 215 IP and 6.9 K/9 IP are adequate but unreliable. His fastball just barely gets into the 90s although he has a plus changeup and big curve. But the fact is, he would battle for the third spot in the Toronto Blue Jays rotation. Aaron Cook was 4.12 and 3.31 K/9 IP over 166 IP. He has a power sinker that he mixes with a slider and curveball but isn't a true second starter. Ubaldo Jiminez had decent numbers as a rookie (4.28 ERA and 68 Ks over 82 IP) but it masks some serious pitching problems. His fastball hits the high 90s but a lousy changeup and lacks command. Franklin Morales had a 3.43 ERA and 1.22 WHIP over 39.1 IP but lasted an average of less than five innings per start so he will need to prove he can pitch well while pitching more. It is entirely possible that the rotation will put together a league average ERA as they did in 2007 but it is just as likely that some of the pitchers will not hold up. The team has some other weaknesses. C Yorvit Torrealba is over-rated. His 255/323/376 was good for only a 4.6 VORP last season. The sooner Chris Iannetta is ready to take over catching duties (218/330/350 in his sophomore season), the better. The bench is not that strong and includes ChiSox castoff Scott Podsednik (243/299/369). The team had an above average bullpen with sophomore Manny Corpas (2.08 ERA and 19 saves in 78 IP) won the closer role over Brian Fuentes (3.08 ERA, 20 saves in 61.1 IP) the same week Fuentes was selected to his second All Star game. The spare parts they constructed their bullpen out of have either left (LaTroy Hawkins to the Yankees, Jeremy Affeldt to the Reds) or have little record of success (Matt Herges and Taylor Buchholz). I wouldn't bet on them collectively repeating their 2007 performance. They've added Kip Wells (5.70 ERA and 1.62 WHIP in 34 games including 26 starts) to pitch in relief and spot-start. The Rockies went on an improbable 21-1 streak down the stretch and in the first two series of the post-season. But they needed a 14-1 run including a one-game playoff with San Diego, as well as two of the all-time worst collapses by others (the Padres and New York Mets) to make the post-season. They swept the Philadelphia Phillies and Arizona Diamondbacks before being swept by the Boston Red Sox in the World Series. If they went 12-2 down the stretch, there would never have been a playoff and no one would have taken much notice of the Rox. Because of a lot of luck, they seem destined for greatness in some people's minds, even if it is deferred by a year. They won't get near 90 wins this year. The ugly: The rotation is not ugly as much as not as pretty as people believe. They are not nearly as good as often claimed by some and they'll surrender more runs than a competing staff should give up. Unfulfilled need: A true ace. Jeff Francis is a solid mid-rotation starter but does not dominate games the way a real ace should. Who to watch: Troy Tulowitski is going to be an elite SS for years. Prediction: 82-85 wins 4. San Diego Padres Why they'll win: Pitching. They have a pitcher's Triple Crown winner in Jake Peavy (19-6, 2.54 ERA, 240 Ks in 223.1 IP). Chris Young is a great talent who faded 0-5 with a 5.96 ERA after returning from a July oblique strain but was 9-3 with a 1.82 ERA before the injury. He had 167 Ks in 173 IP. Greg Maddux has declined a little but is still an impressive #3 pitcher who also serves as a second pitching coach. Last year he was 14-11 with a 4.14 ERA in 198 IP. He still has incredible control with a just 25 BBs. They have taken a chance on two veterans with (at least) some upside but are returning from injuries. Randy Wolf, signed from the Dodgers, is the only southpaw in the group. He was limited to 18 games in 2007 but sported a 9-6 record with a 4.73 ERA and 8.24 Ks/9 IP. He hasn't had double digit victories since 2003. Mark Prior will try to revitalize his career after a promising career was sidelined with injuries. There is a potential tremendous upside. He has a career 3.51 ERA despite not bettering that mark since 2003. He missed 2007 and was limited to nine starts in 2006. The bullpen is deep and of top calibre relievers. Last year their 3.06 ERA was a full run better than average. Many pundits are wondering how all-time save leader Trevor Hoffman responds to blowing a pair of saves in the final three games last year to contribute to the Padres late-season disintegration. He should cope well although age -- he is 40 -- may come into play. Last year he had 42 saves and a 2.98 ERA in 61 appearances. Heath Bell is a great setup guy: 2.02 ERA and 102 Ks in 93.2 IP. Cla Meredith was 3.50 in 79.2 IP. Joe Thatcher (1.29 ERA in 21 IP), Justin Hampson (2.70 in 53.1 IP) and Kevin Cameron (2.79 in 58 IP) might suffer a collective decline, but if not the bullpen might be the best in the Majors. Some roles might get shuffled if manager Bud Black must promote Heath to the closer role. 3B Adrian Gonzalez is quietly a developing star: 282/347/502, 46 2Bs, 30 HRs, 100 RBIs and top flight defense at the hot corner. Not a whole lot in the lineup to excite fans -- or frighten opposing pitchers. Why they'll lose: A complete lack of offense. The team has a lot of low OBP, little power hitters. 2B Tadahito Iguchi (267/347/400), 3B Kevin Kouzmanoff (275/329/457 with 30 2Bs, 18 HRs), SS Khalil Greene (254/291/468 with 27 HRs and 97 RBIs), C Josh Bard (285/364/404 but a substandard backstop), LF Scott Hairston (243/313/452), RF Brian Giles (271/361/416, and an aging CF in Jim Edmonds (252/325/403). Last year, the Padres were 15th in NL (of 16) in BA and OBP and 12th in slugging percentage. It is difficult to imagine them scoring enough to runs to compete. The ugly: Outfield defense. Jim Edmonds, who turns 38 in June, must patrol the vast outfield expanse of Petco Park. More opportunities for highlight reel catches and more chances for balls droppoing between outfielders with diminishing range. Giles is coming off knee surgery and Hairston is a converted infielder. Unfulfilled need: Hitters. One elite bat -- like that of Barry Bonds -- could make the difference between a sub-500 record and challenging for the NL West until the final week. Who to watch: Jake Peavy might not get te wins to challenge for the pitchers' Triple Crown in 2008 but is an elite starter. Prediction: 79-82 wins 5. San Francisco Giants How they'll win: Divine intervention. There are only two players, both starters, who should even play regularly on this team. Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain are outstanding young arms. Cain has a fastball that consistently hits the mid 90s with good sinking action and a plus curveball to go with a solid changeup. He improbably had a 7-16 record with a 3.65 ERA. He could pitch that well and have a worse record now that Barry Bonds is gone, although the bullpen didn't help, blowing five saves. Lincecum had a 4.00 ERA and 9.23 K/9 IP over 146.1 IP. He has a great fastball with wide range (90-97 MPH) to go with an average curveball and a decent changeup. Might have durability issues but is a great pitcher if he can remain healthy. Closer Brian Wilson flashed brilliance in limited play (2.28 ERA and 188 BA in 23.2 IP). Why they'll lose: They are the most comprehensively awful team in the Majors in years. They will struggle to score runs and their top paid starter, Barry Zito has completely lost his velocity at the age of 29. Zito had a 4.53 ERA with just 5.99 K/9 IP but his fastball is stuck in the mid-80s. He is having trouble keeing the ball down in the strike zone and may be the largest bust in baseball history. He is in the second season of a seven-year contract that pays him $18 million per year. Jonathan Sanchez is the fourth starter coming off a 5.88 ERA and nearly five walks per game in 33 games (and a 7.16 ERA in his four starts). He had 62 Ks in 52 IP, but struggles with command and is inconsistent with his secondary pitches. They were last in the league in slugging (387 -- about 70 points behind league leading Philadelphia), total bases, and RBIs, second last in runs and homeruns, and third last in batting average and on-base percentage. And they got worse with the exit of Barry Bonds: 276/480/565 with 28 HRs in 330 ABs and 132 BBs compared with 54 Ks. There is barely a major league roster with what is leftover. 2B Ray Durham is 36 and doesn't have much room to decline: 218/295/343. His range in the field is becoming a liability. Another 36-year-old, Rich Aurilia plays both corners, but shouldn't: 252/304/368. When Aurilia isn't playing 1B, Dan Ortmeier does. He has a 317 OBP and Lindy's says he is a 'questionable everyday player'. Catcher Bengie Molina hit 276/298/433. Rookie Brian Bocock takes over the shortstop position until injured geriatric Omar Vizquel (who turns 41 this month) returns. They should hope he doesn't; he hit 246/305/316. LF Dave Roberts gets on base a little more than most Giants but doesn't have any power: 260/331/364 with just two HRs. There are two mildly useful everyday players, but you have to wonder why they gave Aaron Rowland a five-year, $60 million deal considering that he doesn't have much supporting cast. Rowland hit 309/374/515 with 27 HRs, 45 2Bs, 105 runs and is a decent defender. But his numbers were slightly inflated by playing half his games in Citizen's Bank Park. After Rowland, the best hitter is RF Randy Winn who hit 300/353/445 with just 14 HRs in 593 ABs. The ugly: Twenty-one of 25 roster positions -- all except Cain, Lincecum, Rowland and Wilson. Unfulfilled need: Everyday players who can get on base and drive in runs. Who to watch: Young guns Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain are the only players who watching period. It will be sad watching such talented starters struggle for respectable records while playing on this team for the next season or two. Prediction: 59-62 wins Sunday, April 06, 2008
Baseball preview Part V National League Central 1. Chicago Cubs Why they'll win: The are possibly the best team in the National League and they'll feast on the weak NL Central. They have a good lineup, a great rotation and solid bullpen. Last year, were below average in runs scored and homeruns and they are hoping that a full season of C Geovany Soto and new RF Kosuke Fokudome will add offense. Soto was389/433/667 with 6 doubles and three homers in just 54 ABs over 18 games last season. Fokudome was the Central League MVP in Japan in 2006 after hitting 351 with 31 HRs. He missed part of last season due to elbow surgery and doesn't project to be much more than a 15 HR hitter in North America but he is expected to hit for average, get on base, hit more moderate power, steal bases and patrol the RF fairly well. Fokudome is one of the few left-handed hitters in the Cubs lineup and is an invaluable addition. They join LF Alfonso Soriano (299/337/560 with 33 HRs and 19 SBs mostly in the leadoff position. He needs to walk more (31 BBs in 579 ABs) and strike out less (130). The corner infielders also hit for both power and average. 1B Derrek Lee went 317/400/513 with 22 HRs, 43 2Bs and 82 RBIs while 3B Aramis Ramirez hit 310/366/549 with 26 HRs, 35 2Bs and 101 RBIs. The rest of the lineup offers okay offense except CF where Felix Pie never quite settled down in the batters box. He had 215/271/335 line that he has to improve upon. He is a quality defender and he shows speed on the basepaths (8 SBs in 177 ABs). Until they obtain a better 2B, Mark DeRosa (293/371/420 with 10 HRs) and backup ability at 3B is perfectly adequate. SS Ryan Theriot batted a 266/326/346 with 28 SBs, making him barely over replacement (6.6 VORP in 2007, down from 19.2 in 2006). The bench is weak but OF Reed Johnson (281/343/410) is a moderately useful backup outfielder if Pie isn't getting it done with the bat. There ain't much after that but manager Lou Piniella isn't likely to use it considering the solid lineup he has. The pitching is among the best. The Cubbies were second in the NL in ERA (4.04) and they led the majors in strikeouts (1,211). Carlos Zambrano had an off year with an 18-13 record and 3.95 ERA. He needs to reduce his BBs (101) and he would make a big rebound. A pair of southpaws hold the 2-3 slots in the rotation. Ted Lilly was worth every penny of the 4 year, $40 million deal he signed before the 2007 season. He went 15-8 with a 3.38 ERA and 174 Ks in 204 IP. Rich Hill (11-8, 3.92, 183 Ks in 195 IP) may have the best stuff on the team. He has a good fastball (low 90s) that has great tailing movement, along with a good slider, really deceptive looping curve and a plus changeup. Jason Marquis (12-9, 4.69 ERA in 191.2 IP) eats a lot of innings. Closer Ryan Dempster moves back to the rotation full-time for the first time since 2003 and he is a three-pitch starter with a fastball that will probably top out at 90-91 MPH, a good slider and a nasty splitter. The bullpen is pretty good and has some versatility. Considering Kerry Wood's lack of durability, he is made to close. His fastball isn't what it used to be but is still in the mid-90s and he compliments it with a solid slurve. Bob Howry, a former closer, and Carlos Marmol, the Cubs' future closer, will setup -- and close when Wood has thrown too much in previous games. Marmol (1.43, 96 Ks in 69.1 IP) owns a fastball and slurvy breaking ball that utterly fools hitters. Howry is a sinker-slider pitcher, thus giving the key relievers a good mix of styles to throw at opposing lineups. Scott Eyre (4.13 ERA in 52.1 IP) and Neal Cotts (4.86 ERA in 16.2 IP) are the only southpaws int the pen and they are joined Michael Wuertz (3.48 in 72.1 IP). If Wood struggles the team's bullpen is versatile and deep enough to shuffle roles. Why they'll lose: They're the Cubs. They are in their 100th year of rebuilding and the team has a proclivity for finding ways to disappoint. But they have no serious flaws in their lineup or rotation and a minimum of injury risks. The ugly: Last year's clubhouse. Piniella is an explosive guy but the source of conflict was Michael Barrett who fought with staff ace Carlos Zambrano -- twice -- and found himself traded to San Diego. Should be better this year. Unfulfilled need: A solid 2B or CF. The inevitable trade with Baltimore for Brian Roberts (290/377/432, 50 SBs) hasn't occurred -- yet. Who to watch: Japanese sensation Kosuke Fukodome appears to be a five-tool player. Prediction: 90-93 wins 2. Milwaukee Brewers Why they'll win: A lineup that can lead the league in runs scored and a rotation that is pretty good when it is healthy. 1B Prince Fielder was an MVP candidate with a 288/395/618, 50 HR, 119 RBI. Rookie of the Year winner Ryan Braun moved from 3B where he committed 26 errors in 112 games to LF because they wanted his bat. He hit 324/370/634 with 34 HRs, 97 RBIs in just 451 ABs. They will do a lot of damage. They get good offense from their middle infield. 2B Rickie Weeks hit 235/374/433 with 16 HRs and 25 SBs in 409 ABs. SS J.J. Hardy was 277/323/463 with 26 HRs, 80 RBIs 30 2Bs. Bill Hall moves from CF to 3B and regressed significantly from 2006 with a 254/315/425 line to go with 14 HRs down from 270/345/553 with 35 HRs the year before. He is a good bet to improve. Corey Hart mans the RF with an effective but quiet bat: 295/353/539, 24 HRs, 33 2Bs, 81 RBIs. Ben Sheets was 12-5 adn 3.82 ERA in 24 starts although he missed a month-and-a-half with a finger injury. Indeed, he hasn't started 25 games in three seasons, and has won between 10 and 12 games in six of seven seasons. They'll have a full year of Yovani Gallardo who went 9-5 with a 3.67 ERA and 101 Ks in 110.1 IP. He has a plus fastball (90-94 MPH), with a quality slider and curve, and a changeup with decent cutting action. He starts the season on the DL but will be a major asset once he returns. Jeff Suppan is a solid #3 starter: 12-12 with a 4.62 ERA in 206.2 IP. Dave Bush is the fourth starter. He was 12-10 with a 5.12 ERA in 2007. The team will use an assortment of young prospects in the fifth spot. They'll miss Chris Capuano who will probably need Tommy John surgery (although he is trying to avoid it and possibly return this season). How they'll lose: The rotation does not remain healthy and closer Greg Gagne looks more like the Gagne that pitched for the Red Sox (6.75 ERA in 20 games in setup) than the Rangers (2.16 ERA in 34 games as a closer). Indeed, the whole bullpen could lose them a lot of games. The bullpen has three closers: Greg Gagne, Derrick Turnbow (4.63 ERA and 84 Ks in 68 IP) and Salomon Torres (career 4.40 ERA in 429 career games), none of whom should be expected to dominate. David Riske (5.47 ERA in 52.2 IP playing with tendinitis). They acquired Guillermo Mota (5.76 ERA in 59.1 IP) from the Mets. The question is whether the starters can deliver enough wins to qualify for the wild card, but it is hard to imagine this lineup not scoring a ridiculous number of runs. The defense is not so great. Hall is untested at third and all the rest are below average defenders with limited range. Catcher Jason Kendall is the weak link in the lineup, with an awful 301 OBP and 309 slugging percentage, a precipitous drop for a 33-year-old. The ugly: Gagne if he brings his B(oSox) game rather than his T(exas) game. He can potentially blow eight to ten games, enough to make the difference between contender in the NL Central and being a sub-500 team. Unfulfilled need: Health. Who to watch: The combination of Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder could combine for more homeruns than some weak-hitting teams. Fielder led the NL in slugging percentage; Braun would have had he enough at bats to qualify. Prediction: 88-91 3. Cincinnati Reds Why they'll win: They are a talented young team that has a couple of great veterans. They have a strong front-end of the rotation and they addressed their problems at the top of the bullpen. CF Jay Bruce is the top position player in the minors according to Baseball America and any other manager would have given him the starting CF job with the Reds but skipper Dusty Baker is not a fan of young, 'unproven' players and would rather go with proven bums like Corey Patterson. At three levels of ball last year, Bruce hit .319/375/587 with 26 HRs, 46 2Bs and 89 RBIs. Most scouts say he has nothing left to learn in the minors so it is baffling that Bruce is back with the Louisville Bats. Somehow, other young talent did make the team including 1B Joey Votto who will be a Rookie of the Year candidate. In a September call-up, Votto hit 321/360/548 with 4 HRs and 17 RBIs in 84 ABs. He'll add power to a team that already includes Ken Griffey Jr. (277/372/497 with 30 HRs and 93 RBIs) and Adam Dunn (264/386/554 with 106 RBIs). Dunn struck out 165 times last year but remains valuable because of his patience (101 BBs) and power (40 HRs and 27 2Bs). Griffey is chasing 600 HRs and if the Reds aren't contending for the division title, he is commonly thought to be an object of Seattle's desire. I wouldn't bet on it. Brandon Phillips is developing into a nice defensive 2B with great offensive prowess: 288/331/485 with 30 HRs and 94 RBIs. Most of the rest of the lineup is useful. Aaron Harang (three consecutive seasons with at least 211.2 IP and an ERA under 3.83) and Bronson Arroyo (4.23 ERA in 210.2 IP and an unrepresentative 9-15 record) are a vastly under-rated 1-2 punch. A handful of youngsters will get their shot at filling out the rotation including Johnny Cueto and Edinson Volquez (4.50 ERA in six starts with a strong high mid-90s fastball). Eventually, so too will Homer Bailey who showed a great fastball and curve despite a 5.75 ERA over six starts, but the signing of Josh Fogg from the Colorado Rockies will block him for the time being. The bullpen is suspect but is now led by proven closer Francisco Cordero (2.98 ERA, 44 saves and 86 Ks in 63.1 IP with the Milwaukee Brewers). Last season, the bullpen blew a league high 28 saves. Why they'll lose: Jay Bruce is in the minors. Other rookies and sophomores are probably on a short leash. Dusty Baker doesn't trust young players enough to give them the ball or place in the lineup. You win by playing your best Major League ready talent and Baker won't do that. Instead, they'll start Patterson in centre. Patterson hit a miserable 269/304/386 last year with the Orioles but that was better than his career average of 258/297/415. They'll also go with starting catcher David Ross who must improve upon his 271 OBP although he hits for some power: 43% of his hits were for extra bases. The starting rotation has Josh Fogg in the third spot. His career numbers: 60-60, 4.93 ERA, 1.46 WHIP. The young backend of the rotation might not work out and incredibly they are not using their most promising rookie (Bailey). With Fogg and the young starters (regardless of how well they do), they need a strong bullpen -- an element of the game they don't have. It is potentially as abysmal as last season's but in new ways when it was the league's worst with a 5.13 ERA. Kent Mercker didn't pitch in 2007. Todd Coffey had a 5.82 ERA and 1.75 WHIP in 51 IP. Rookie Jared Burton had a good year (2.51 in 43 IP) but can he repeat? They signed Jeremy Affeldt who had a great year in Colorado last season (3.51 ERA and 1.36 WHIP in 59 IP over 75 games) but in the previous year (6.91 ERA and 1.61 WHIP in 27 games). The ugly: Playing Patterson over Bruce. Unfulfilled need: Bruce in the Majors. And lots of relief pitchers. Who to watch: Bruce when he finally cracks the big league team as a full-time player. Until he does, Votto is a second legitimate Rookie of the Year contender on this team, with 30+ HR power. Prediction: 79-81 4. Houston Astros Why they'll win: They should have been sellers rather than winners this past Winter. They should have gone through a little creative destruction rather than mortgage their future for a long-shot chance in 2007, acquiring a severely declining shortstop, Miguel Tejeda: 296/357/442. His 18 HRs were the first time in nine years that he failed to hit 20. It was the first time he hit fewer than 30 2Bs in a full season, hitting just 19. His 81 RBIs were a full-season low for him. His defensive range is not what it used to be. While he is an improvement, the team didn't need to add offense this year at the cost of future contributors. The team also traded for NL save leader Jose Valverde, who had a 2.66 ERA, 78 Ks and 47 saves in 65 appearances. He might preserve a large number of small leads for this marginal team. The team has a pair of top notch hitters. 1B Lance Berkman is an elite hitter, going 278/386/510 with 34 HRs and 102 RBIs. LF Carlos Lee hit 303/354/528 with 32 HRs, 43 2Bs and 119 RBIs. Hunter Pearce did well in his rookie year with a 322/360/539 line and 17 HRs and 30 2Bs. He might regress a little, especially as he gets used to a new position, moving from CF to RF. Michael Bourn was acquired from the Phillies to play CF (277 BA and 18 SBs in 119 ABs). Catcher J.R. Towles, who hit 375/432/575 during a September call-up and won't be that good over a full season but will make an infinitely better backstop than Brad Ausmus (318 OBP and 324 SLG). That's a pretty good core and they'll be good to keep the team in most games. Last year, the 'Stros scored 4.46 runs per game, a little under the league average of 4.71 runs. They'll be at or slightly above the average this year. Getting rid of 2B Craig Biggio (251/285/381) will alone be worth a couple of games. New 2B Kaz Matsui's numbers were inflated by playing in Coors Field in Denver but even a slight decline in his 288/342/404 would be an improvement over the aging and declining Biggio. He also brings some speed (32 SBs) to the team. Starter Roy Oswalt is one of the better starters in the NL. Last year he was 14-7 with a 3.18 ERA in 212 IP. His four-seam fastball is still solid (up to 96 MPH) mixed with a dominant slider and a curveball that effectively changes speed. His changeup is a little below average. At 30 and with a worsening BB/K ratio, Oswalt he is a prime candidate to decline. Until he does, Oswalt is the staff ace. Why they'll lose: After Oswalt, the pitching is dismal. Brandon Backe is coming back from Tommy John surgery, Wandy Rodriguez (4.58 ERA in 182.2 IP) is the second starter, Shawn Chacon (career 4.97 ERA, 1.51 WHIP) is the fourth starter and Chris Simpson threw 4.59 ball in 121.2 IP in his first full season in the Majors. Geoff Geary and Doug Brocail are the top relievers after Velvarde in a bullpen that had an ERA a full run over the league average for relievers. The pitching is probably the worst in the division and it will cost the team a shot at 500 ball. The ugly: I can't figure out what is worse: starters two through five or the mistaken game plan to try to compete with them in 2008. Unfulfilled need: The recognition that they are not competitors, even in this so-called 'weak NL Central'. They need to rebuild, not rework the lineup and rotation. Who to watch: When Felipe Paulino makes the big leagues by the end of the year, he will be worth watching whether he is a starter or reliever. He hits 100 MPH on the radar gun. Prediction: 72-75 5. Pittsburgh Pirates Why they'll win: When they win, it will be on the strength of their top two starters, both of whom could keep their ERA under 4.00. Ian Snell (9-12, 3.76 ERA in 208 IP, and 7.66 Ks/9 IP) has a good sinking fastball and a power curve, but he tends to lose command. After the All Star break last year, his ERA was 4.83. He needs to rebound. Tom Gorzellany is a great left-hander, going 14-10 with a 3.88 ERA in 201.2 IP. He has a tailing fastball to go with a curve, good fading changeup and an inconsistent slider. He tend to overthrow and leaves too many pitches high in the strike zone. Both could run into serious problems, but both could end up aces for half the teams in the Majors. In the aggregate, the team is a slightly below average hitting lineup but looking at their everyday players it is not easy to see why. The bright spots include a severely declining Jason Bay, who despite consecutive seasons of regression, is still one of the Pirates top offensive threats, going 247/327/419 with 21 HRs, 25 2Bs and 84 RBIs. His primary value in 2008 will be as trade bait. The second best power hitter is Xavier Nady, who hit 278/330/475 with 20 HRs and 70 RBIs. Freddy Sanchez hit 304 with a measly 343 OBP and 401 SLG but he also leads the NL with 95 2Bs over the past two seasons. His average declined 40 points from 2006. SS Jack Wilson hits well for the position (296/350/441) and is a defensive gem. After these four, it is wishes and hopes. Why they'll lose: The rotation after Snell and Gorzellany drops off severely. Paul Maholm went 10-15 with a 5.02 ERA and 295 BAA while striking out just 5.32 batters per 9 IP. His fastball barely breaks 90 MPH and he gets caught in the top part of the strike zone too often, although he possesses a plus curveball. Zach Duke hada 5.53 ERA in 19 starts and a horrendous 350 BAA and just 3.44 K/9 IP. Matt Morris allowed a 302 BAA and a 4.89 ERA between San Fran and Pittsburgh. He is expected to eat innings (190+ in six of the past seven seasons) and help coach the young arms. Matt Capps is presumed to be a top closer, getting 18 saves in 76 games with a 2.28 ERA. He was scored on just twice in his final 30 appearances but is actually untested in the role. He might have been a flash in the pan, but for the Pirates' sake he better not be. There is no other natural closer in the bullpen, which allowed seven-tenths of a run more than the average relief corps in the NL last year. With the rotation after the 1-2 spot so questionable, the bullpen does not offer much relief. Young Ronny Paulino is an adequate defensive catcher but must improve upon his 314 OBP and 389 SLG. Adam LaRoche is an average hitting 1B and the Bucs need him to have a breakout year. 3B Jose Bautista strikes out a lot (101 Ks) for a guy with middling power (15 HRs) and mediocre OBP (339). Nate McClouth stole 22 bases in 23 attempts but his 351 is not ideal for a leadoff hitter. No one is truly awful and there are potential breakout years, but several who are candidates for regression, including Nady, Wilson and Sanchez. Bay needs to figure out where his game went. The ugly: Bay's decline. His BA, OBP, SLG, runs and SBs have declined in both 2006 and 2007. He smashed 14 fewer HRs than he did in 2006 and his slugging percentage was more than 100 points lower than his career average. Unfulfilled need: A destination for LF Jason Bay to be traded to because he's blocking outstanding prospect Steve Pearce. Who to watch: CF Nyjer Morgan ended the game with an 11-game hitting streak during his September call-up to the big league cup. Prediction: 71-74 6. St. Louis Cardinals Why they'll win: They have the best hitter in the league, Albert Pujols. He was one run away from seven consecutive seasons of 100 RBIs, 100 runs, 30 HRs, and a 300 BA. Since 2003 he has played with a sore elbow that probably will eventually require reconstructive surgery and it appeard to bother him worse and more consistently than usual. He set career lows in runs (99), HRs (32) and RBIs (103) and second lowest slugging percentage (568). He has not stolen as many bases as he used to (two last year compared to 16 in 2005) but still provides Gold Glove-calibre defense. It is hard to admit the need to rebuild when you have such a prodigious talent in the lineup, but there is little to go with Pujols. LF Chris Duncan has some power: 21 HRs in just 375 ABs. Rick Ankiel hit 11 dingers in 172 ABs after joining the team in the Summer. Troy Glaus was 262/366/473 with 20 HRs in 115 games with the Toronto Blue Jays but the 31 year old is regressing after years of injuries. They may display such power in 2008 or they might not. Duncan isn't a true everyday outfielder so his numbers are unlikely to get better and Ankiel is dogged by allegations of PED use. Who knows how many games Glaus has in him? The team has two good pitchers, one starter and one closer. Jason Isringhausen has 281 career saves, including 32 in 34 opportunities last season to go with his 2.48 ERA and 179 BAA in 65.1 IP. Converted reliever Adam Wainwright did well in his first season in the rotation, anchoring them with a 14-12 record with a 3.70 ERA. He threw 202.2 IP and it will be criticl that he can maintain that workload. He has four quality pitches including a low 90s fastball that he can cut on the left side of the plate to go with a sharp curve and varying speeds, and a plus slider and average changeup. If the bullpen does what they did last year, it will be an asset to the Cards providing completely average relief (4.07 ERA compared to an NL relief average of 4.06). Russ Springer, Ryan Franklin, Tyler Johnson and Randy Flores provide for a deep and varied bullpen. Tony LaRussa is a good manager and pitching coach Dave Duncan has a good track record of turning around careers gone bad. But they will need to perform miracles to get this team back to 500. Why they'll lose: Their top two starters are on the DL. Pujols doesn't have much of a supporting cast. Chris Carpenter hasn't pitched since opening day in 2007 and will likely not return until this Summer. There is not guarantee he will return to his old Cy Young self. Mark Mulder is gone until May and it will be interesting to see whether he can return to his 2005 season performance (16-8, 3.64 ERA in 205 IP) rather than his 7.68 ERA over 20 starts combined the past two seasons. Even when they return there is no guarantee that they Cards will be much better. For now, the rotation (aside from Wainwright) should give Cardinals fans nightmares. Braden Looper, a converted reliever, doesn't really have the stuff of a starter and gets himself into trouble and behind the count. Brad Thompson was middling (4.73 ERA, 1.52 WHIP in 129.1 IP) last year. Todd Wellemeyer was 9-10 with a 4.92 ERA and 1.57 WHIP in 136 starts and relief appearances over three years. Kyle Lohse has never had an ERA better than 4.18 and owns a career 4.80 mark over seven seasons. The team has seen its run total decrease for four consecutive seasons and is likely to occur again in 2008. These guys lack power and have trouble getting on base. C Yadier Molina has an incredible arm, throwing out 54% of baserunners, but his 275/340/368 line is awful for a 6th hitter. Full-time 2B Adam Kennedy had a 282 OBP last year. SS Cesar Izturis takes his 258/302/316 line to the 9th spot, behind the pitcher. Most of the rest of hte lineup is average or flawed. 3B Troy Glaus is injury prone and aging. Because Duncan is not an everyday player, backup OF Ryan Ludwick's 252/319/448 in 224 career games becomes a serious concern. Ankiel displayed power but has a lacklustre 328 OBP. The ugly: All the talent they put on the DL. It's a terrible thing losing two top pitchers at the beginning of the season. Unfulfilled need: Ditto Houston: The recognition that they are not competitors, even in this so-called 'weak NL Central'. They need to rebuild, not rework the lineup and rotation. Who to watch: As long as he is playing, Pujols is one of the best two or three hitters in the game. With surgery on his elbow coming this off-season, he might not be able to maintain his powerful bat. Enjoy it while you can. Prediction: 70-72 Saturday, April 05, 2008
Baseball preview Part IV National League East 1. New York Mets Why they'll win: They have a solid lineup, a good rotation and potentially useful bullpen. The Mets boast the best pitcher in the game (Johann Santana) and a player who probably the best in the National League (David Wright). Jose Reyes is a great SS with speed (MLB-leading 78 SBs) and moderate power (12 HRs) and Gold Glove-calibre defense. He has made great strides in pitch recognition and increased his walks and thus maintained a 354 OBP despite a 20-point drop in hit batting average from 300 to 280. He should return to a 300 BA and improve his OBP accordingly. He could is one of two very strong MVP candidates on the team. The other is 3B David Wright. He has improved his average in each of his four seasons and hit 325/416/547 with 30 HRs, 107 RBI, 34 SBs and 113 runs last year. He is a Gold Glover at the hot corner. He is one of three Mets in the 30-30 club and he looks to be a regular to achieve that. It is notable that when the Mets were crashing in the final month, Wright hit 352 with a 602 slugging percentage. Reyes and Wright will make the Amazings contenders for years. The rest of the lineup is none too shabby. Carlos Beltran played injured and hit 276/353/523 with 33 HRs, 33 2Bs, 112 RBIs, and 23 SBs. His batting average and OBP were very close to his career average and Mets OBP. He won his second consecutive Gold Glove in CF. When Moises Alou is in the lineup, the 41-year-old contributes, hitting 341/392/524 in 328 ABs (13 HRs, 19 2Bs and a 30-game hitting streak). Angel Pagan is a suitable replacement, flashing moderate power and speed. 2B Luis Castillo hit 301 and walks more than he strikes out. He hit 296 with 10 SBs and 20 RBIs in 50 games after joining the Mets. Carlos Delgado showed considerable regression in 2007, hitting just 258/333/441 with 24 HRs which is useful in this lineup but will become a concern he continues his slide which is a possibility considering he is 35. They acquired C Brian Schneider and a useful RF Ryan Church from the Washington Nationals. Schneider hit 50 pts lower than Paul Lo Duca, the Mets starting catcher last year, but finished with a better OBP. He is also a superior backstop and threw out 45% of basestealers. The Mets hope he rebounds to his career 253 BA from a four-season low of 235. Church hit 272/349/464 with 15 HRs in 470 ABs but would be better if he could reduce his strikeouts (107 in 2007, but below his career average a K every 3.96 ABs). Santana is the best, most durable pitcher in baseball. Last year was a bad year for him (15-13, 3.33 ERA, 235 Ks, 219 IP, 1.07 WHIP). Before 2007, he had three consecutive years with a WHIP below 1.00 and an ERA below 2.90. He should be even better in the National League where he doesn't have to face a designated hitter or the tough Tiger, Indians, Yankees and BoSox lineups. He has the best changeup in the game and in a league unfamiliar with his repertoire it wouldn't be surprising to see his ERA fall under 2.50 or to see him collect some more hardware. When healthy, the team has the best rotation in the game. Pedro Martinez is fragile and will miss a lot of games (he is already on the DL and likely out for two months), but his curveball and decent changeup allow him to be a legitimate second starter despite a fastball that doesn't nail 90 MPH anymore. Fifth starter Orlando Hernandez had a 3.72 and 9-5 record in 2007 but is currently on a rehab assignment until the end of the April. Flyball pitcher John Maine is tailor-made for the spacious Shea Stadium and superior defensive outfielders (3.91 ERA, 235 BA against). Oliver Perez is a fantastic fourth starter: 51-10, 3.56 ERA, 8.85 Ks/9 IP. Perez is prone to losing control and missing the strike zone, but can dominate on most days. The fifth starter (fourth while Martinez and Hernandez is out) is Mike Pelfrey who should improve on his 5.57 ERA in 72.2 IP as he has substituted a below average slurveball for an improving slider. That goes with a good power sinker (mid-90s) and a fastball that touches 96 MPH. The bullpen is pretty good and they are better for having lost Guillermo Mota, who seemed to have surrendered a disproportionate number of game-tying and game-losing runs down the stretch last year. In fact, if they didn't use Mota ever last September, the Mets would surely have made the post-season. Beyond Mota there is closer Billy Wagner who can't get his fastball to kiss 99 MPH any more but still had 34 saves and 88 Ks in 68.1 IP. Aaron Heilman had a 3.03 ERA in 86 IP in 81 games. He is a four-pitch reliever and could start if the team was desperate but appears to be the closer of the future with a mid-90s fastball and plus changeup. Pedro The Mets probably have the best bench in the Majors with OF Endy Chavez (great range in the field and a 287-single slapping hitter), INF/OF Marlon Anderson (319 as a Met), INF Damon Easley (280 with 10 HRs in 193 ABs), INF Ruben Gotay (a 295 hitter last year and 318 against righties) and C Ramon Castro (285 with 11 HRs in 144 ABs). Castro should get more ABs with the offensively limited Schneider as the starter rather then over-rated Paul Lo Duca in front of him. How they'll lose: Injuries and some unanticipated regression among the starters. Martinez weakens the rotation but alone is not fatal. The rotation will benefit a lot from the return Duanar Sanchez. Carlos Beltran can't miss many games or the outfield begins to fall apart. LF Moises Alou is ancient and might miss games. Carlos Delgado isn't what he used to be but the teams lacks options for 1B. The ugly: Blowing a seven-game lead with 17 games left to miss the playoffs. Unfulfilled need: A backup for Martinez. The Mets begin the season with a four-man rotation. Who to watch: Jose Reyes. He had a great Spring, has a new attitude and could become the undisputed best SS in the NL. Last year, he tailed off in the second half, not even running out possible infield singles. He will improve in 2008. Prediction: 93-96 wins 2. Atlanta Braves Why they'll win: They're good. They have an under-appreciated lineup and a decent rotation. Last year, the Braves had a better run differential (77) than either the Mets or Philadelphia Phillies. They have only improved since then. No team has the infield corners covered as well as Atlanta. The Braves were phenomenal afte acquiring 1B Mark Teixeira from the Texas Rangers. He hit an gawdy 324/412/647 with 17 HRs and 56 RBIs in 54 games with Atlanta, a vast improvement from his already impressive (although Rangers Ballpark-aided) AL numbers: 254/297/403 with 13 HRs in 78 games. A full season of Teixeira makes the Braves lineup much better. 3B Chipper Jones is one of the best hitters in the game: 337/425/604 with 29 HRs, 42 2Bs, 102 2Bs. He walks more than he strikes out and is a capable third baseman. The only knock against him is that he is injury prone and they need him in the lineup every day to compete. They have one of the better hitting catchers in Brian McCann: 270 BA with 452 SLG and 18 HRs and 92 RBIs. An injury hampered his offense as his BA dipped 63 points from '06 and while he is unlikely to return to top of the batting average tables, he might hit closer to 300 this season. He is also a plus defender. RF Jeff Francoeur hit 293/338/444 with 19 HRs, 40 2Bs, and 109 RBIs with a Gold Glove to boot. The team is counting on SS Yunel Escobar to repeat: 326 with a 385 OBP, 54 runs in 319 ABs in his first season. He was good enough that the Braves felt comfortable trading Edgar Renteria, a 332 hitter. He will bat leadoff. 2B Kelly Johnson hit 276/375/456 with 16 HRs and 10 3Bs. LF Matt Diaz hit 338 in 358 ABs. The weak spot will be CF Mark Kotsay who hit just 214 last year with the Oakland A's. He is a candidate to rebound considering that he had his worst full season batting average by 52 points. The rotation has a pair of starters in their 40s (John Smoltz and Tom Glavine) and a perenially injured Mike Hampton. Tim Hudson was quietly one of the best pitchers in the NL last year. He went 16-10 with a 3.33 ERA in 224.1 IP. Smoltz was 14-8 with a 3.11 ERA in 205.2 IP and 197 Ks. Glavine threw a better than league average 4.45 ERA in 200.1 IP, while going 13-8. But he no longer is getting the calls while picking at the corners of the strike zone and he threw only 4 Ks/9 IP. Glavine has averaged 215 IP over 20 years but he is beginning to show his age and slid badly in the final few months last year and has several atrocious outings down the stretch. He is a candidate for a total demise and sentimentality aside, is probably now the weakest part of the rotation. If he puts up a near league average ERA, he will have done his bit. Jair Jurrjens is a great young pitcher acquired in the trade for Renteria and will contribute for years. After not pitching for two seasons, Hampton's returned was postponed when he was injured in Winter Ball. They have southpaw Chuck James (also now on the DL with Hampton and Smoltz) who went 11-10 with a 4.24 ERA in 161.1 IP. There are another two or three minor league options if they need it. Why they'll lose: The rotation does keep up its end of the bargain, they miss CF Andruw Jones and SS Escobar doesn't repeat his 2007 performance. The bullpen is a question mark and they could be really good or they could regress to league average. It had a 3.54 ERA last year but there are a number of relievers are young and their numbers from 2007 may or may not be indicative of how good they are. Rafael Soriano (9 saves, 3.00 ERA, 70 Ks in 72 IP and 181 BAA) has won the closer's job. He throws a high mid-90s fastball. Former closer Mike Gonzalez is setup and is on the 15-day DL but when he returns he brings a career 2.29 ERA in 186 games. They also have Peter Moylan who had an 1.80 ERA and 208 BAA in 90 IP. After that it is potential problems. Tyler Yates has great stuff but struggles with command. If he becomes consistent he will improve on his 5.18 ERA. Will Ohlman is a situtational lefty who had a 4.95 ERA and 33 Ks in 36.1 IP on 56 games. Manny Acosta had a 2.28 ERA in 21 relief appearances as a rookie. Jeff Bennett had a 3.46 ERA in three games after a three-year absence. Blaine Boyer had a 3.38 ERA in five games. Good numbers but they may not repeat. The ugly: Bobby Cox's temper. He holds the record for most times ejected by a manager (133). Unfulfilled need: They could use a quality starter or an improvement in the bullpen. Who to watch: There are many who think Jeff Francoeur is ready to take his game to another level. Prediction: 88-90 wins 3. Philadelphia Phillies Why they'll win: One of the best two lineups in the NL. The Phillies led in the NL in runs scored and will likely be first or second in runs again. They have three contenders for the NL MVP. 2B Chase Utley would probably have won last year if he hadn't missed a month. He hit 332/410/566 with 22 HRs, 103 RBI, 104 runs, and 48 2Bs. He has had three consecutive seasons of 54 Value Over Replacement Value or better, including a 68.8 mark despite missing time last year. 1B Ryan Howard suffered a significant decline from his MVP 2006 season (58 HRs, 313 BA) to hit 268/392/584 with 47 HRs and 136 RBIs. He also sruck out a Major League record 199 times. Last year's (undeserving) MVP, SS Jimmy Rollins hit 296/344/431 and became the first player with at least 200 hits, 30 2Bs, 15 3Bs, 25 HRs and 25 SBs. He has stolen at least 30 bases in six of the last seven seasons. That is a great infield but they have lacked a quality 3B. They signed Pedro Feliz from San Fran, but a career 252/288/432 is not an answer to their problem. They'll miss CF Aaron Rowand who took his 309/374/515 line to the Giants, but LF Pat Burrell is under-appreciated. He hit 30 HRs and had a 400 OBP. Shane Victorino moves to CF and he had a 281/347/433 line and stole 37 bases in 41 attempts. He is a true CF and has one of the best arms in the game. RF Geoff Jenkins is hoping to revitalize his career in the city of brotherly love after a disappointing 319 OBP in Milwaukee last season. He did, however, hit 21 HRs in just 420 ABs. He needs to improve on his patience at the plate. He had 116 Ks and just 32 BBs. C Carlos Ruiz had a decent rookie season: 340 OBP with 29 2Bs and 54 RBIs in part-time play. Staff ace Cole Hamels is one of the best pitchers in the game. He went 15-5, 3.39 ERA and 177 Ks in 183.1 IP. He has a good fastball and an outstanding circle change and is developing a 12-6 curve. After that, the rotation slips a lot. The bullpen should be good. There is a lot of hope being placed on new closer Brad Lidge, who had 88 Ks in 67 IP in Houston last year to go along with a 3.56 ERA and 19 saves. Tom Gordon (4.73 ERA in 40 IP) is in setup and is hoping to improve after a season in which he never full recovered from a shoulder injury and a respitory infection. J.C. Romero had a 1.24 ERA in 36.2 IP over 51 appearances after coming over from Boston. Ryan Madson missed time due to injury in 2007 but still had a 3.05 ERA in long relief in 38 appearances. The rest of the bullpen is made up bit parts that will be depended upon due to weak starting pitching. Why they'll lose: Pitching. Beyond Cole Hamels, its shakey or plain bad. Brett Myers is a starter turned closer turned starter again. It is questionable whether he has the stamina for start again. Jamie Moyer is the third starter and he will soon qualify for social security. He is 45 and had a 5.65 ERA after after May 14. Kyle Kendrick had a good rookie season, going 10-4 with a 3.87 ERA in 20 starts. His stuff is just average, with a fastball that doesn't get any better than 92 MPH, but he has excellent control. Adam Eaton, the Phillies fifth starter, is 17-14 over the past two years with the Texas Rangers and Phillies, with a 5.96 ERA in 43 starts while making three trips to the DL. They'll score a lot of runs but surrender about as much. Hamels makes the difference between a 500 club and a winning club. The ugly: On any given day, they could score eight to ten runs and lose because of the pitching. The Phillies will have more of these days than most teams. Unfulfilled need: Three quality starters and a real 3B. Who to watch: Utley is the best player on the team, but Rollins is electric to watch. Prediction: 84-87 wins 4. Washington Nationals Why they'll win: They are an improving team with a bunch of useful parts in the everyday lineup. They have a pretty decent corner infield with Ryan Zimmerman (266/330/458 and 24 HRs and 91 RBIs) and Nick Johnson (career 272/395/458) who returns after missing the 2007 season. SS Christian Guzman hit 328/380/466 in just 174 ABs before a ligament tear in his left thumb practically ended his season. 2B Ronnie Belliard hit 290/332/427. That's a good enough infield. The outfield is poised for a number of breakout seasons including Lasting Milledge, an under-achieving CF acquired from the New York Mets, and Elijah Dukes, a troubled but gifted youngster picked up from the Tampa Bay Rays. Austin Kearns has disappointed in RF Austin Kearns has disappointed since coming to the Nats from the Reds in 2006 but puts up respectable numbers. There are a number of promising young prospects including catcher Jesus Flores who is backing up over-rated Paul Lo Duca (311 OBP) for now. It is an everyday lineup that won't embarass itself. They finished last in the NL in runs and HRs but should improve their offense this year. Manager Manny Acta is one of the smarter skippers in baseball and will squeeze everything he can out of the team. General manager Jim Bowden knows how to assemble talent. This is a team that will play competitive games this year while building a serious contender in the near future. Why they'll lose: Pitching is bad. Last year's rotation had the second worst ERA in the NL (5.11) and there is no reason to think they are any better. Odalis Perez (4.48 ERA in 222 career games) is the staff ace but in the past three years, he hasn't had an ERA under 5.57 or WHIP below 1.583. The rest of the rotation consists of such non-entities as Tim Redding (4.84 ERA in 116 games), Matt Chico (31 career starts, 4.61 ERA), Jason Bergmann (27 starts, career 5.09 ERA) and Joel Hanrahan (11 starts, 6.00 ERA). The bullpen had the fourth best ERA in the NL (3.81) but considering the variation in relief performance from one year to another, that might not mean much. The relievers threw the second most innings in the Majors last year (590.2) and considering the rotation, might do that again. Among position players, some of the developing young players might not develop as expected and their off-field antics (Dukes) and immaturity (Milledge) might be a distraction. The ugly: The starting rotation might not match with some of the better minor league teams. Unfulfilled need: Five major league worthy starters. Who to watch: Milledge has the ability to be a superstar, but he must step up his game sooner rather than later. Prediction: 74-77 wins 5. Florida Marlins Why they'll win: Some real great hitters in the everyday lineup. Hanley Ramirez is the best hitting SS in the game today. Last year his 332/386/562, 29 HRs, 48 2Bs, 125 runs helped the organization overlook his pathetic fielding and some day -- preferably soon -- he will move from the shortstop position. He also has back-to-back 51 SB seasons. 2B Dan Uggla hit 245/326/479 with 31 HRs and 88 RBI. He struck out 167 times and needs to reduce that number but no one but the Phillies gets as much production from their middle infield as the Marlins do from Uggla and Ramirez. LF Josh Willingham is the only other notable hitter, blasting 21 HRs and a 364 OBP. RF Jeremy Hermida hit 340/401/555 after the All Star break and while he won't repeat that level of hitting, it shows he is capable of being a solid contributor. Why they'll lose: This is a team whose payroll is not just less Alex Rodriguez's annual salary but less than that of over about two dozen players. And it will look like it. The Marlins had a league worst 4.94 ERA, with a 5.05 rotation ERA. None of the five starters had a better opponents' batting average under 284, although Anibal Sanchez is a candidate to improve on his 4.80 ERA after missing most of the season. He has three quality pitches including a plus changeup and improving curveball. Andrew Miller, a terrific young prospect acquired from Detroit in the off-season blockbuster, but needs to consistently control his breaking ball. There is not much reason to expect above average performances from Scott Olsen, Ricky Nolasco and Rick Vandenhurk. The bullpen pitched adequately last year, but there are numerous candidates for regression including Lee Gardner (1.94 ERA over 74.1 IP) and Matt Lindstrom (3.09 ERA in 67 IP). They had a league average OBP but lost their best hitter (Miguel Cabrera). 1B Mike Jacobs OBP was 317. The new everyday C Mike Rabelo had a 300 OBP with the Tigers. New 3B Jorge Cantu has a career OBP of 309. His backup, Jose Catillo had a 270 OBP. The ugly: As bad as Ramirez's defense is and as horrible as the rotation will be, the team's treatment of the fans is the uggliest thing about this rotation. See below. Unfulfilled need: Fans in the seats at Dolphin Stadium. To do that, the Marlins have to give them a reason to come (a winning team) and to stay (not disassembling it after every World Series Championship). Who to watch: CF Cameron Maybin, acquired in the deal that sent the Marlins' best player (Miguel Cabrera) and best starter (Dontrelle Willis) to Detroit, is an incredible athlete. He reminds me of Eric Davis and it wouldn't be surprising to see him become a 30-30 player. Prediction: 69-72 wins Friday, April 04, 2008
Baseball preview Part III American League West 1. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim Why they'll win: They have the best lineup, the best rotation, the best bullpen and the best manager in the division. They don't hit homeruns (12th in the league) or for power (9th in slugging), but they do get on base (345 SLG, good for 3rd) and they steal (139 thefts, 2nd overall). RF Vladimir Guerrero hit 324/403/547 and will get to 'rest' in the DH slot fairly regularly due to a perceived surplus of outfielders. Last year was only the second time in Guerrero's 12-year career that he failed to hit at least 32 homers during a full season. He hit 27 HRs, had 125 RBIs, and drew more walks than strikeouts (71-62). He is joined in the OF by Torii Hunter, signed from the Minnesota Twins. Hunter is a Gold Glove CF who hit 287/334/505 with 28 HRs, 45 2Bs, and 107 RBIs. He will relieve some of the pressure on Guerrero to always produce. He strikes out a lot, however: 101 Ks in 600 ABs but just 40 BB. Gary Matthews Jr. moves from CF to LF. He slid from 313/371/495 with the Texas Rangers (mostly in hitter friendly Rangers Ballpark in Arlington) in 2006 to 252/323/419 in his first year with LA. He might bounce back a bit. In limited at-bats, 2B Howie Kendrick improved over his rookie season to 322/347/450 and will likely continue to progress. He doesn't hit homers, but there is no reason Kendrick won't be a singles-machine like Ichiro Suzuki of the Seattle Mariners. It just seems a matter of time until he wins a batting title. Chone Figgins is settling into the 3B role but can play anywhere. He had a 393 OBP last year and has stolen at least 34 bases in each of the last four years. Mike Napoli and Jeff Mathis are a solid combo at backstop. 1B Casey Kotchman hit 296/372/468. There is barely enough production to carry SS Erick Aybar and his pitiful 279 OBP and infielder Brandon Wood could make the Angels this year. He projects as an eventual middle of the order batter but he might not ready for that in 2008 although he is likely to be better than Aybar and would be a capable fill-in at 3B or 2B if a major injury takes out Figgins or Kendrick for an extended period of time. They had the fifth best ERA in the AL, but their starters 4.22 ERA was third, just behind the BoSox's 4.21. They traded a Gold Glove shortstop for another starter and many in pundit land said they had a surplus of starting pitching. Then Kelvim Escobar, a 18-game winner with a 3.40 ERA, got injured and requires surgery that will take him out for the season and maybe end his career. Staff ace John Lackey, 19-9, 3.01 ERA in 224 IP, could be out for a month. Despite losing two starters, the team has a pretty good rotation. Jon Garland, acquired from the Chicago White Sox should rebound a bit from his 10-13, 4.23 ERA in 208.1 IP. Jered Weaver was 13-7 with a 3.91 ERA and is great when he has his slurvy breaking ball and changeup working and avoids flat, hittable pitches in the high 80s. Ervin Santana (5.76 ERA and 1.55 WHIP) is a good comeback candidate with two plus pitches: a fastball that gets into the high 90s and a power curve. Joe Saunders is a young pitcher with a nice mix of pitches and who was 8-5 and a 4.44 ERA in 107.1 IP. This is a perfectly good rotation and Dustin Moseley (4.40 ERA in 92 innings of relief and starting pitching last year) is an adequate fill-in until Lackey returns. If they run into further injuries, Nick Abelhart has three plus pitches and is almost Major League ready. The bullpen is not what it once was but is still pretty good. Scot Shields is on the DL but seems to pitch every other night. He showed some decline last year (to 3.86 ERA in 77 IP), but is still an elite setup pitcher. Francisco Rodriguez has shown some decline and is disgruntled because the team won't extend his contract. But he uses his filthy, filthy breaking ball to induce a lot of strikeouts (90 in 67.1 IP) to help him get 40 saves. Opponents batted 204 off him last year as he posted a 2.81 ERA although that was his highest mark in five seasons. Justin Speier was 2.88 and 47 Ks in 50 IP. Lefty Darren Oliver had a good second half and Saunders, Santana or Moseley will return to the bullpen for long relief when Lackey returns. Mike Scioscia is a smart manager (702-593 in eight seasons) who gets the most out of his team. He juggles his lineups, has the team run aggressively, hustle on defense, maximizes the benefits of his bullpen. He uses his bench intelligently and seldom puts a player in a position where they would likely fail. Why they'll lose: Even with injuries, they have options and the rest of the division is weak. They are headed for their fourth division title in five years. I noted above the 'perceived surplus of outfielders.' LF/DH Garret Anderson is nearing the end of his career and his stats were padded by a 10-RBI game last August. He had 80 all year. But he hits 297 but his inability to walk limits his usefulness as he a mere 336 OBP. That will probably continue to decline, as does his power and range in the outfield. The ugly: The acrimony between the team and Rodriguez following the adversarial arbitration hearings and LA's refusal to offer a three-year, $45 million deal comparable to the one Mariano Rivera signed with the Yankees this Winter. It almost certain K-Rod will play elsewhere next season. Unfulfilled need: Apparently they need more starting pitching. That might be less of a problem if they had a little bit more power. Who to watch: Vladimir Guerrero has a sweet swing. He swings at everything and seems to be able to drive the ball even when he reaches for balls way outside the strike zone that few others would dream of even going after. Prediction: 88-90 wins 2. Seattle Mariners Why they'll win: They are in a weak division but they have a nice 1-2 punch at the front of the lineup and more decent hitters than either of the teams below them. They acquired a potential Cy Young winner and pitcher's Triple Crown threat in Erik Bedard (13-5 with the lowly Baltimore Orioles, 3.16 ERA, 1.09 WHIP and 221 Ks in 182 IP). Bedard is a fine addition to the a team with an abysmal 5.16 starters ERA -- a full run worse than the AL average. He is followed by Felix Hernandez, who has yet to live up the initial hype from three years ago but is a perfectly solid number two starter (3.92 ERA in 190.1 IP and 165 Ks with a good mid to high 90s fastball, a good slider and a solid changeup). They also signed Carlos Silva (13-14, 4.19 ERA in 202 IP but just 89 Ks, with the Minnesota Twins in '08) could be a potentially good middle of the rotation starter who eats up a lot of innings but who is hardly worth the 4-year, $48 million price tag. J.J. Putz is injured for the moment but not for long. He has developed into an elite closer: 76 saves and 186 Ks in 150 IP. Last year his WHIP was 0.70.But he has proven in two seasons he closes as well as anyone else in the game. His fastball routinely clocks in the high 90s and he has a nasty slider to go along with it. Setting him up is George Sherrill (2.36 ERA in 45.2 IP in 73 games). He has excellent command of good but not exceptional pitches (his fastball tops out at 93 MPH). The lineup is weak but Ichiro Suzuki is a singles-hitting machine. He has at least 206 hits in everyone of his seven MLB seasons, going 351/396/431 last year. Of his 238 hits last year, 203 were singles -- the second 200+ single season he had in four years. LF Raul Ibanez hit 291 with 21 HRs, 35 2Bs and 105 RBIs. The other standout is C Kenji Johjima who hit 287 with 14 homers. Defensively he is a plus backstop and he threw out an incredible 46.5% of baserunners. Why they'll lose: Last year they were an 88-win team but they allowed 19 more runs than they scored and their Pythagorean wins were 79-83, not the 88-74 record they ended up with. Many expect them to repeat the 88 wins and they add the 3-5 wins they expect Bedard adds and voila, an instant competitor. More realistically, Seattle will have a record that resembles their talents or lack thereof and battle for a 500 record rather than a spot in the post-season. Last year, they padded their record by beating up on two weak teams in the division, the Oakland A's and Texas Rangers, going 25-13 against them. The biggest problem is that their bats don't produce. 3B Adrian Beltre hasn't replicated his incredible 2004 LA Dodger season -- in fact he has never come within 50 points in batting average or 60 in OBP or 147 in SLG. He could have another breakout year and I wouldn't be surprised if it happened, but the team can't rely on it. Richie Sexson, likewise, hasn't caught on with the Mariners. He hit just 205/295/399 last year although he did have 21 dingers. Their DH is a weak-hitting former 2B, Jose Vidro (6 HRs, 414 SLG, 59 RBI). On top of Sexson's dreadful 295 OBP, other guys who hardly get on base include 2B Jose Lopez (284), SS Yuniesky Betancourt (308), Beltre (319), OF Willie Bloomquist (321), and Johjima (322). Last year the team hit 287 and that won't be replicated and they don't walk watch. You can't score if you can't get on base. Despite signing Bedard, pitching is still a weakness. Other than Bedard, the rotation doesn't really impress me a whole lot. Hernandez might never be the pitcher almost everyone expected he would be. Jarrod Washburn and Miguel Batista are, at best, mediocre starters (4.32 and 4.29 ERA respectively). The bullpen had a strong 3.95 ERA but there is no reason to believe that any one other than Putz can repeat. The ugly: On-base percentage. See above. Unfulfilled need: Half a lineup that can get on base more than 33% of the time. Who to watch: Putz is a dominant closer. Prediction: 80-82 wins 3. Texas Rangers Why they'll win: My first answer was: "Because even the worst teams in baseball win 40% of the time." But they could have an impressive lineup. When Milton Bradley is in the lineup, he adds a lot. Last year in San Diego and Oakland, he hit 306/402/545, but that was in just 209 ABs. The team acquired CF Josh Hamilton who has missed two seasons due to a MLB suspension and substance abuse treatment program. But he hit 292/368/554 in 298 ABs with 19 HRs. He has a legitimate chance to belt 40+ homers in the bandbox they call Ranger Ballpark in Arlington. Ian Kinsler is a fine young 2B: 263/355/441 with 20 HRs, 22 2Bs. A full season of a healthy Hank Blalock will help, although he has never had a good first and second half of a season in the same year. The team is figuring out whether to use the more promising hitting youngster Jarrod Saltamacchia or the defensive whiz Gerald Laird at catcher and one suspects they could dangle either one in a trade for an upgrade mid-season wherever Texas finds their most urgent need. The team had an above average bullpen last year but both of their regular closers are now gone. But they've added Japanese closer Kazuo Fukumori and have homegrown closer C.J. Wilson ending games all year (3.03 ERA, 63 Ks in 68.1 IP. Why they'll lose: Perhaps the best player on the team is SS Michael Young who has achieved something very special: five consecutive 200 hits seasons without becoming a star-quality player. His homerun total has declined significantly and consistently in three years from 24 to 14 to 9. He is likely to be overtaken as the best player, but if some of the young talent doesn't develop as expected, the Rangers are in trouble. But the most serious problem is pitching. Its rotation was a league worst 5.50. Kevin Millwood is the team's ace and he can't pitch well in warm weather. In two seasons with the Rangers he is 26-26 with ERAs the past two years of 4.52 and 5.16. His career ERA at Rangers Ballpark is above 5.00. The second guy in the rotation, Vincente Padilla, is 21-20 the past two seasons with ERAs of 4.50 and 5.76 and his WHIP in 2007 was 1.63. I don't understand how analysts like the signing of inexpensive Jason Jennings. In his career he is 60-66 with a 4.92 ERA and he's coming off his worst year -- a 6.45 ERA in Houston after spending six seasons in Colorado. Brandon McCarthy holds down the fourth spot and someday he might live up to the potential he had but for now he is a starter that flirts with a 5.00 ERA because his best pitch, a swooping, downward curve, never gets called for strikes. Various spare parts and prospects will get their chance to win (and lose) the fifth spot. The ugly: The defense. AL-leading 124 errors. No reason to expect them to improve in this department. Unfulfilled need: Starters 1-5. But nobody who is any good will want to pitch in Texas. Who to watch: Hamilton has the ability (and benefit of playing in bandbox) to belt a bunch of homers and contend for the HR crown. It is a bit of long-shot but he could do it. No one else will put up All Star type numbers or play exciting baseball. Prediction: 77-80 wins 4. Oakland A's Why they'll win: The Oakland A's have long gotten more out of their teams than they had any right to consistently do. From 1999 to 2006, they never won fewer than 87 games, but they slipped to 76-86 last year. When they win in 2008 it will be due to the weakness of their opponents and a pair of good starters, Rich Harden when he is healty (seven games, four starts in 2007 but a 2.45 ERA and 9.47 Ks/9 IP) and Joe Blanton (3.95 ERA in 230 IP). Nothing else to write home about. Why they'll lose: They have aging and injured vets combined with untested youngin's in their lineup and their rotation looks questionable at best. They were 13th in BA and 6th in OBP but they traded one of their best hitters, Nick Swisher, to the Chicago White Sox. Their best hitter was Jack Cust who hit 256/408/504 with 26 HRs, 105 BBs and 164 Ks in just 395 ABs. He is not a good candidate to hit with that much power again. SS Bobby Crosby hasn't played in 100 games in any of the past three seasons, which might be a blessing in disguise. Last year his OBP was a miserable 278. 3B Eric Chavez, who has battled his own set of injuries, had an OBP of 306. There are tonnes of untested players in the field including Daric Barton, who impressed during his brief visit to the Majors last year: 347/429/638 in an unrepresentative 72 ABs. Both in the lineup and the rotation, there will be so many rookies and young players, that a few are bound to succeed -- most notably Barton. But not enough of them will. What to expect from starters Chad Gaudin, Justin Duchscherer, Dana Eveland, Lenny DiNardo, and Gio Conzalez? The bullpen is so unimpressive they brought back Keith Foulke, who retired just before the 2007 season and who had an ERA of 5.91 in his second last season. The team is notoriously injury prone with Chavez, Crosby and Harden (just 76 starts in his first five seasons) joined by closer Huston Street who missed two months. The team used the DL a club-record 22 times in 2007. If the team is going to get back to 500-ball, they need to avoid injuries. The ugly: Roster construction misstep that has led to two full-time DHs: Cust, who is horrendous in the field, and Mike Sweeney, a life-long Kansas City Royal, who hasn't played more than 50 games in the field since 2002. And speaking of Cust: his 164 whiffs led the AL. Unfulfilled need: A trading partner to move Harden and perhaps Blanton so the rebuilding process can continue and fans can forget any chance of competing this season. Who to watch: Barton is a legit Rookie of the Year contender. Prediction: 72-74 wins Wednesday, April 02, 2008
Baseball preview Part II American League Central 1. Detroit Tigers Why they'll win: They have a scary lineup and pretty solid rotation. There are seven All Stars in the Tigers lineup and CF Curtis Granderson could be one this season. The Tigers batted 287/345/458 last year -- second in BA and SLG in the AL -- and they got better with their acquisition of 3B Miguel Cabrera from the Florida Marlins and SS Edgar Renteria from the Atlanta Braves. Cabrera has the potential to become the best hitter in the Majors: 320/401/564 with 34 HRs, 119 RBIs, 38 2Bs last year. He is only 24 and the combination of natural development and moving to the more hitter friendly Comerica Park should mean even more impressive numbers. Renteria hit 332/390/470 with 12 HRs, 30 2Bs. In any other season -- that is any year in which Alex Rodriguez didn't put up his superhuman numbers -- RF Magglio Orndonez would have been the MVP. He will regress a little from his 2007 stats but that leaves plenty of room for another MVP-type year. Last year, he hit 363/434/595, with 54 2Bs, 28 HRs, 139 RBI, 117 runs and a mere 79 Ks in 595 at-bats. They join Granderson (one of three players in Major League history to hit 20 2Bs, 20 3Bs, 20 HRs, 20 SBs, to go with a 302 average), SS-turned-1B Carlos Guillen (296/357/502, 21 HRs, 101 RBI), DH Gary Sheffield (25 HRs, 378 OBP with missing games and playing injured for the final few months), and 2B Placido Domingo (341/388/459, 105 runs, no errors all season). Catcher Ivan Rodriquez had a mere 294 on-base percentage but is still a superior defensive catcher, great at calling a game and a cannon of an arm (throwing out 31% of base-stealers). Were it not for the strength of the rest of the lineup, the sub-300 OBP would be a concern but the Tigers can carry it without much problem. As celebrated as the Yankees' lineup is, the Tigers should be the leading run scorers in baseball this year. The rotation is pretty decent, even though three-fifths of them had ERAs worst than the Major League average. Justin Verlander is a Cy Young candidate. Last year, he went 18-6 with a 3.66 ERA, 233 opponents' BA and 183 Ks in 201.2 IP. He has a great fastball (up to 98 MPH) and a plus curveball and changeup. Jeremy Bonderman had a poor year but should rebound from his career-worst 5.01 ERA in 171.1 IP. He is a good power pitcher (95 MPH fastball) but needs to be consistent with his command. The Tigers are one of the few rotations to have three left-handers: Nate Robertson (9-13, 4.76 ERA), Dontrelle Willis (10-15, 5.17 ERA in 205. IP with the Marlins) and Kenny Rogers (4.43 ERA in 11 games in an injury-wracked year). Bonderman and Robertson should do a lot better in '08, Willis is an inning-eater (three consecutive 200+ IP seasons) who probably can rebound despite coming to AL where he will have to face a DH rather than a pitcher. Rogers is trying to defy age -- he turns 43 this season. I'd predict significant regression, but if the others improve, it won't matter much. The starters will benefit from the better fielding that Renteria provides over Guillen, who moves to 1B. The middle infield could both win Gold Gloves. How they'll lose: When they starters have bad outings or when the game is close and they need good pitching from the bullpen. The relievers are pretty mediocre, and pretty awful when they are missing their best two due to injuries: Joel Zumaya throws heat in the high 90s and can touch 100 MPH but he won't return until the Summer months after he injured himself moving stuff out of his house when the southern California fires where threatening his home in the San Diego area. Fernando Rodney, who has a plus fastball and outstanding changeup, is also out for while. Closer Todd Jones will turn 40 this year and his 4.26 ERA, 33 Ks in 61.1 IP and 89-92 MPH fastball is not all that great for the guy who closes out games. Manager Jim Leyland and Tiger fans better hope for a blowout and cross their fingers the relief corps don't sacrifice the effort when the ball is put in their hands. Other than Brandon Inge (OF, INF and catcher, hits for some power), the team doesn't have a great bench. While the team can sustain an injury or slump from their everyday lineup, they don't have bench players or minor league help if several problems must be dealt with. The trades for Cabrera, Willis and Renteria have depleted the minors and there is not a lot in the pipeline to help them this season if the need arises. The ugly: Cabrera's 3B defense. 23 errors at the hot corner last year. This is less of a problem with plus defense in the middle infield which will allow Renteria to cheat a little closer to third. The situation is completely tolerable considering Cabrera's monster bat but eventually he is expected to move to 1B. Unfulfilled need: A deeper bench, a reliable reliever or two, or a reliever who can spot start when needed. It might not be very easy for them to find these considering the talent they've traded away over the past few months. Who to watch: Granderson is an incredible athlete and pure joy to watch. Prediction: 97-100 wins 2. Cleveland Indians Why they'll win: Pretty solid lineup, superior rotation and one of the top bullpens in the sport. Cy Young Award winner C.C. Sabathia (19-7, 3.21 ERA in 241 IP, 209 Ks) is in his walk year and playing for a big payoff in the free agent market this winter. Fausto Carmona made a nice transition to the rotation and could just have easily won the Cy Young as his team-mate (19-8, 3.06 ERA, 215 IP). Carmona would be a prime candidate for some serious regression were it not for his excellent sinker that induces a ridiculous number of ground balls. So does Jake Westbrook who improved after returning from a mid-season injury. His pre and post All Star ERA was 6.27 and 3.44 respectively. Paul Byrd is a pretty solid fourth starter. Although his fastball sits in the mid-80s, he mixes his four-pitch repertoie which includes a slider, curve and changeup extremely well and avoids walking many batters. The fifth starter is Cliff Lee who spent most of last season in the minors (just two years after finishing fourth in Cy Young voting) because of delivery problems. He should bounce back but if he or another starter stumbles, the Tribe has numerous Major League-ready pitchers in their minor system including Aaron Laffey and Adam Miller. With the exception of closer Joe Borowski, the bullpen is even better than the rotation. It had a 3.73 ERA compared to the league average of 4.30. Rafael Betacourt (1.47 ERA, 80 Ks in 79.1 IP, 183 batting average against) has tremendous stuff and should be (and eventually will be) the closer. He combines a plus fastball in the low mid-90s with a good changeup and solid slider. Rafael Perez had a 1.78 ERA and 62 Ks in 60.2 IP. Lewis Jensen had a 2.15 ERA in 29 appearances and Aaron Futz had a 2.92 ERA in 37 innings over 49 games. They added Japanese reliever Masahide Kobayashi in the off-season. He has 277 saves in nine seasons with the Chiba Lotte Marines of the Japanese Pacific League and would close or setup on most other teams. Even if most the bullpen regresses, they will still be a good bullpen. While bullpens are notoriously inconsistent, the Indians are a good bet to replicate because they didn't just put up great numbers, they each have really good stuff. The lineup has some real strengths. Catcher Victor Martinez -- who plays 1B once or twice a week to keep him in the lineup while 'resting' him -- hit 301/374/505 with 25 HRs and 114 RBIs. CF Grady Sizemore had a tremendous year with 277/390/562 and 24 HRs and 33 SBs. DH Travis Hafner had an off year when he hit 266 with 24 HRs and should rebound. He still walked a ton, with his second consecutive 100+ walk season. Jhonny Peralta had a decent rebound year and has a fair bit of power for a SS with 21 HRs. 1B Ryan Garko is a solid contributor (289/359/483 with 21 HRs). If some of their young talent (RF Franklin Gutierrez, 2B Asdrubal Cabrera) improves, they'll give the Tigers a run for their money. Why they'll lose: They don't get a lot of offense from three of their four corner positions. Gutierrez's line of 266/318/472 needs to improve (and it might). The combination of Jason Michaels and David Dellucci is a substandard platoon in LF. 3B Andy Marte's three partial seasons has produced an uninspiring career line of 201/263/356. If he doesn't last, 3B/OF Casey Blake will be a decent 3B but he is hardly championship calibre. He is, anyway, infinitely more useful off the bench because of his versatility. We'll have to see how 2B Cabrera does in his first full season after posting a solid 283 BA over the final two months of 2007, during which the Tribe went 28-12 and overtook the Tigers for the AL Central Division title. Closer Joe Borowski makes the 9th inning an adventure and I'm not sure why any manager would risk small leads by inserting him into the game, especially considering there is no shortage of relievers on this team who can close down the ninth inning. Borowski had a 5.07 ERA, the highest ever for a pitcher who led the league in saves (45). He allows nearly a batter and a half per inning pitched and blew eight saves last year (which doesn't count a six-run inning against the Yankees in April because it wasn't a save situation when he entered the game with a four-run lead). There are a few problems elsewhere. The trend in some peripheral stats, including BB/K ratio, suggest Jake Westbrook is a candidate for a sudden breakdown. Also, considering the propensity of much of their rotation to induce a lot of groundballs, Peralta's poor range at SS is a major liability. But other than Borowski closing -- for which they have options -- these are minor problems and they will still be a great team. But sharing a division with the Tigers and vying for the AL wild card with the loser of the Boston Red Sox/New York Yankees battle for AL East dominance, means every win counts and a win total in the mid 90s range will probably be necessary to qualify for October ball. The ugly: Any game closed by Joe Borowski. Unfulfilled need: A power-hitting 3B or outfielder would provide a big boost. They have lots of prospects in the minors that could be used to land a useful everyday player. The Chicago White Sox have three or four such candidates but it is unlikely either team would trade within the division. Who to watch: Leadoff hitter and CF Grady Sizemore is a candidate for 30 HRs, 30 SBs and a 400 OBP. That could make him a candidate for MVP if Cleveland makes the post-season. Prediction: 89-92 wins 3. Chicago White Sox Why they'll win: The ChiSox have the kind of a team that should have been dismantled, trading away aging and declining veterans for prospects. But manager Kenny Williams looked at the number of leftovers from the 2005 World Series and figured that they might be able to make a run in 2008, so instead of selling he went a-buying and mortgaged the future on an outside chance of making the post-season this year. They gave up a trio of prospects including highly touted pitcher Gio Gonzalez for Nick Swisher, the Oakland A's on-base machine that has just 56 games experience in CF. He'll man the middle part of their outfield. They have asked for too much for 3B Joe Crede in trade talks, thus preventing minor league sensation Josh Fields from making the team. But the ChiSox really weren't as awful as their 72-90 record would indicate, so one might understand their desire to make one last desperate attempt get back into the post-season with these guys. 1B Paul Konerko (259 with 31 HRs) and RF Jermaine Dye (254 with 28 HRs, 78 RBIs) are aging and suffered significant decline. They could improve and if they do the ChiSox offense could be quite formidable. 3B Joe Crede was hurt for much of last season and he should rebound a bit. DH Jim Thome hit an impressive 275/410/563 with 35 HRs and 96 RBIs. Add Swisher to the mix and they have a good enough lineup to rebound from a miserable year. The ChiSox have an impressive 1-2 punch with innings eater Mark Buerhle who hasseven consecutive seasons with 200+ IP (albeit with an ERA that flucuates between 3.12 and 4.99 but 3.84 for his career) and Javier Vazquez (3.74 ERA, 213 Ks in 216.2 IP). But its iffy after that. Closer Bobby Jenks has an overpowering high 90s fastball that he complements with a solid curve and an improving slider. They acquired Scott Lindebrink (3.71 ERA in 70.1 IP between the San Diego Padres and Milwaukee Brewers last year) and Octavio Dotel (41 Ks in 30.2 IP between the Kansas City Royals and Atlanta Braves). Why they'll lose: They need to make up a lot. They got miserable performances from their hitting, defense and bullpen in 2007 and their rotation took a step backwards with the trade of Jon Garland to the Los Angeles Angels. The bullpen allowed 1.27 runs more per nine innings than the AL average bullpen. Lindebrink and Dotel only go so far to improving that. They should be better but it would be hard to repeat a 5.47 bullpen ERA. After Buerhle and Vazquez, the rotation has some serious question marks. Jose Contreras was handed divorce papers literally minutes before the first game of the season and that is being blamed for his 10-17, 5.57 ERA season. He should rebound but he is also 36. John Danks and Gavin Floyd, the back end of the rotation, has started less than 40 games between them. Last year they had ERAs of 5.50 and 5.27 respectively. They should improve but they might bust, too. The rotation and bullpen's job won't be made any easier by the team's terrible D. According to the Hardball Times Season Preview, the Sox have a truly horrible defense -- one that could add two-tenths of a run to the pitchers' ERA. The addition of Gold Glove-winning SS Orlando Cabrera should help. The lineup could produce runs, but they will also strike out. A lot. Konerko (102 Ks), Thome (134), Swisher (131) and Dye (107) all hit triple digit Ks in 2007. 3B/OF Josh Fields, who was returned to the minors but will be back on the roster sometime this season, struck out 125 times in just 373 at bats last year. OF Carlos Quentin and 2B Danny Richar would strike out 100+ times over the course of a full season. Aging players such as Dye and Konerko could continue their decline and Thome might join them. The ChiSox have a lot of problems -- a lot of forseeable problems -- but not many ways to address them. It wouldn't be surprising to see some of their veterans shopped around before the July trading deadline, especially if either New York team needs a power-hitting 1B or a marginal contender needs corner help. The Phillies seem a possible destination for Crede. The ugly: The organization's game plan. In another season or another division, the moves the ChiSox made would be defensible and might even work out. But with both the Tigers and Indians so clearly superior teams and with at least 90 wins (but probably more) necessary to qualify for the wild card, the decision to try to contend this year seems a tragic mistake. In the past two seasons the Sox won 90 games and lost 90 games. This year, they will be truly and consistently mediocre. They should be better but at what cost? They traded promising prospects to get to mediocrity. Seems like a dumb idea. Unfulfilled need: If they want to compete, they need a reliably good third, fourth, fifth starter and a better, deeper bullpen. The ChiSox are a half-dozen pitchers away from seriously contending and unless an unusual number of pitchers have breakout years combined with Contreras returning to his normal numbers, there is no way to make this up. Player to watch: Jenks and Vazquez can really pitch. Jenks retired 41 consecutive batters during one stretch last year, tying a 35-year-old record -- and it wasn't particularly surprising. Prediction: 79-82 wins 4. Minnesota Twins Why they'll win: The loss of Johann Santana, the best pitcher in the game today, hurts but will not be devastating. They will eventually get back the one pitcher who might be as good as Santana, Francisco Liriano, lost to injury in the Summer of 2006. If he pitches like he did in the months before his injury, Twin City fans might actually forget about the southpaw they sent to Queens. The farm system has produced an embarrassment of pitching riches but is very poor at developing position players. It wouldn't be surprising if any of their young starters -- Boof Bonser, Nick Blackburn, Scott Baker and Kevin Slowey -- did well and probably the worse they will do as a whole is slightly under league average. Until Liriano returns, inning-eating Livan Hernandez will anchor the rotation. They have one of the best closers in the game, Joe Nathan, who recently signed a four-year deal at more than $11 mil per annum. The rest of the bullpen is solid, collectively posting a 3.80 ERA in 2007. They are mostly young and might regress, but there are plenty of pitching options within the organization. There are useful parts in the lineup. Joe Mauer is one of the four best hitting catchers in the game and a past batting average champion. Justin Morneau won the MVP two years ago and is a great 1B. Michael Cuddyer is an above average RF hitter and superb defensive player. LF Delmon Young, acquired from the Tampa Bay Rays in the deal for starter Matt Garza, hit a poor 288/316/408 but projects as a 25+ HR guy in the future. Mike Lamb is hardly their long-term answer at third, but will contribute if he replicates his 289, 11 HRs in 311 at-bats, which he did with the Houston Astros last year. Why they'll lose: The downside of losing Santana is that they didn't fill some of their immediate needs (a centerfielder, power-hitting third baseman or decent middle infielders) that could contribute today while progressing as a young talent. The lineup has a couple of sub 300 OBP players: SS Adam Everett (281), infielder Alexi Casilla (256), LF Craig Monroe (268). Young (316) just surpassed it despite hitting nearly 290. While Lamb and Cuddyer are useful offensive contributors, they are not the players to build an offense around. This will likely be one of the two or three worse offenses in the Majors this year. They'll feel the loss of Torii Hunter in both the outfield and lineup, but keeping him wouldn't have made that much of a difference. The reliance on inexperienced and rookie starters could backfire, especially if Liriano does not return. The infield D is pretty weak with the exception of Everett at SS. This could hurt the young pitchers. Unfulfilled need: If their goal is to compete now, they should have obtained an impact CF, 2B or 3B. But that is probably not their goal. The Twins are simply not as good as they have been in recent years and they probably want nothing more than to hang in there until their new stadium opens in 2010. They have a strong nucleus on which to build three seasons hence, but they risk embarassing themselves during the upcoming rebuilding years. They should have gotten players with more upside than they got in return for Santana. Who to watch: Franscico Liriano. If he is as good as he showed in the first half of 2006 when he finally does return, he has the ability to be Johan Santana good. Prediction: 73-75 wins 5. Kansas City Royals Why they'll win: They won't. But they are about to play decent ball as they follow general manager Dayton Moore's rebuilding plan. They are still a year or so away from competing, but there is tangible progress. The Royals will lose a lot of games, but not as many or as badly and one-sided as in recent years as long as their young talent develops power and gets on base. That's progress and Royals fans are only being asked for a little more patience. Baseball pundits laughed when the Royals signed starter Gil Meche from the Seattle Mariners following the 2006 season for $11 million a year for five years. But their coaching staff made a minor mechanical change to the way Meche landed when he pitches and he responded with a tremendous season despite a sub-500 record. His ERA was 3.67 and he would have done much better than 9-13 if the Royals hadn't scored a total of just 12 runs in his 13 losses. Zack Greinke went 7-7 with a 3.69 ERA and rookie Brian Bannister went 12-9 with a 3.87 ERA. There is no reason that these three starters shouldn't all keep their ERAs under 4.00 again. The team has an above average bullpen and Joakim Soria (2.48 ERA, 75 Ks in 69 IP) is a solid closer and they have added Japanese reliever Yasuhiko Yabuta to be setup. Three days out of five, the Royals will be competitive. Star prospect, 3B Alex Gordon ended May with a 185 BA but batted 275 from June through September. He hit a lot of doubles (35). RF Mark Teahen continues to improve with a 285 BA albeit without power. DH Billy Butler hit 292/347/447 and looks to get better with experience. The Royals acquired LF Jose Guillen from Seattle to bolster an otherwise weak-hitting lineup (290/353/450 with 23 HRs, 99 RBIs). 2B Mark Grudzielanek has five consecutive seasons with a batting average of 294 or better. Why they'll lose: They are not good enough yet. The back end of the rotation is horrid with Jorge De La Rose (5.82 ERA, 304 BAA) and Kyle Davis (6.09 ERA in 136 IP and terribly inconsistent stuff). The team doesn't have power. Last year, they finished last in HRs (102) as only two Royals reached double digits and none had more than 18. They also need to get on base more. They were 13th in the league with a 322 OBP -- 44 points worse than league-leading New York. C John Back needs to improve his average (222) and OBP (308) although he has the power (18 HRs in 347 ABs). SS Tony Pena's OBP was 284. 1B Ross Gload's was 318. They are giving up way too many outs. The ugly: The back end of the rotation means the team will get romped fairly often. Unfulfilled need: Magically fast-forwarding a season or two. In truth nothing. They have a plan, they are sticking to it. They need to continue to draft well and develop young talent and Dayton Moore has invested in scouting. Player to watch: With his arsenal, Zack Greinke should be dominating starter for years to come. Marvel at how he mixes up a fastball that ranges from 92-98 MPH, a plus curveball, a strong slider and a cirlce curve. Prediction: 71-74 wins Tuesday, April 01, 2008
Baseball preview Part I American League East 1. Boston Red Sox Why they'll win: They are probably the best team and the most complete team. One of the best lineups in the game, great starting pitching, and even better bullpen. They are good enough not to be too hampered by a slump or injury and they have options in most positions except catcher. Probably the best bullpen in ball today. In 2007, the relievers had a 3.10 ERA compared to an AL average of 4.30. Flame-throwing closer Jon Papelbon has a fastball he can get up to 96 MPH and a filthy slider. He had 84 Ks in 58.1 IP, a 146 opponent BA and a 0.77 WHIP. He is simply dominating and doesn't appear to lose anything pitching on consecutive days. Setting him up are sophomores lefty Hideki Okajima and rightie Manny Delcarmen. Okajimi had a 2.22 ERA and 63 Ks in 69 IP, although his All Star splits are 0.83 ERA before and 4.56 ERA after. His unorthodox delivery, two different sliders and a great curveball make up for a fastball that doesn't get into the 90s. Delcarmen had a 2.05 ERA in 44 IP with 41 Ks and a 183 opponent's BA. He possesses a mid-90s fastball and decent and improving secondary pitches, he should get better and be able to fill in one the rare days Papelbon needs a break. The rest of the bullpen including Mike Timlin and Julian Tavarez make up a great relif corps. The rotation has lost Curt Schilling (3.87 in 151 IP in 2007) but they can deal with it. The ace is Josh Beckett (20-7, 3.27 ERA in 200.2 IP with a 95-97 MPH and devastating curveball) who will contend for the Cy Young. Daisuke Matsuzaka didn't live up to the unrealistic expectations many had for him and he might have had trouble dealing with the five-day rotation rather than the seven-day rotation they employ in Japan. But he went 15-12 with 201 Ks in 204.2 IP, not too shabby. He should improve on his better than league average 4.40 ERA as he reduces his pitching arsenal to a core of four or five pitches, including a mid-90s fastball and a ridiculous curve. Tim Wakefield will turn 42 but knuckleballers can have long careers. He should be good for league average ERA in 180-190 innings. Second-year pitcher Jon Lester is a great back-of-the-rotation starter (4.57 ERA and 7.14 K/9 IP). Last year Clay Buchholz threw a no-hitter in his second Major League outing and assumes superhuman expectations but all he needs to provide is league average pitching. He should do slightly better than that. He has three above average pitches (a 95 MPH fastball, a mid-70s curve, and a 80 MPH circle change) and an okay slider. He had 12.3 Ks/9 IP in AA and AAA ball. Catcher Jason Varitek is one the weaker links in the lineup and his possesses a 367 OBP and hit 17 HRs in 2007. Dustin Pedroia had a 317 BA and 380 OBP as a rookie 2B and he is not expected to decrease much; he also seldom strikes out (42 in 520 ABs). 3B Mike Lowell has power (back-to-back 20 homerun seasons) and patience. Ditto Kevin Youkilis across the diamond, with 16 HRs and a 390 OBP. All are plus defenders. Jacob Ellsbury had an incredible 353 BA/394 OBP/509 SLG line with a great glove and base-running speed in 127 plate appearances at the end of the season. He bumped Coca Crisp out of his CF job and although he probably won't replicate his 2007 numbers, he is a good bet to be an above average CF. On his left, Manny Ramirez should come back from an off year (20 HRs, a full 100 points below his career slugging percentage). In RF, J.D. Drew got off to a sluggish start but finished with a 373 OBP but just 11 HRs. He went on a torrid late-season surge, signalling that he was slow to adjust to the American League. As good as the team's offense was last year, the outfield should be even better in '08. David Ortiz is the best DH in the game and contributes with double power and ridiculous patience even when he isn't belting the ball out of the park. SS Julio Lugo is the weak link with a hideous 294 OBP but he should improve upon that. With the exception of the defense-indifferent Ramirez, everyone is a good defender as long as David Ortiz doesn't take the field. How they'll lose: It it hard to imagine the Red Sox not doing well but whereas almost all the baseball pundits realize that the New York Yankees might not succeed if their three threesome of young pitchers don't pan out, it does not seem to have crossed anyone's mind that CF Ellsbury and pitchers Buchholz and Lester might not live up to expectations. If they don't, they have options (Crisp in CF) and even if one player slumps, there is enough talent on the team to make up for a shortcoming here and there. There will be some regression by 3B Mike Lowell who had a career year, hitting 44 points above his career bating average and 34 points above his career slugging percentage. Catcher Jason Varitek turns 36 this month and can expect to continue his slide in average and power. Despite the fact that many pundits said David Ortiz had an off year, his Value Over Replacement Player was one of his best (86.2) and a full ten runs (or one win) better than either of his two previous years. His line of 323/445/627 were much better than previous years despite hitting just 34 homers. He should be expected to regress slightly. While I am expecting Ramirez to rebound, there is a chance that he is beginning to show his age and will continue to slide. The Ugly: Red Sox Nation -- the nauseating fans of the team -- are insufferable. But the team simply has no glaring weakness. Unfulfilled Need: None right now, but the team has the resources in both finances and prospects to fill any holes that develop in the season. Who to watch: Manny Ramirez and J.D. Drew both bounce back from disappointing seasons and Ramirez is a top candidate for the MVP. Prediction: 96-99 wins 2. New York Yankees Why they'll win: Lots. The team is committed to the youth movement (for now) and the pitching threesome of Ian Kennedy, Phil Hughes, and Joba Chamberlain are expected to carry a heavy load this season. They all did well in their brief appearance in the Majors last year. I really like Chamberlain coming out of the bullpen with a fastball that can reach 99 MPH and a slider that has touched 90 MPH; he adds depth to the team's most glaring weak spot (the relief corps) and he'll pump up Yankee fans every time he enters late in the game. All the team needs from Kennedy and Hughes league-average starts; they are a safe bet to do that and might even do better. Chien-Ming Wang should get 19 wins again but questionable defense from the SS (Derek Jeter) and 1B (Jason Giambi), the sinker ball, ground-ball inducing ace might see his 3.70 ERA increase slightly. Andy Petitie should overcome his off-season strengths and throw 190 quality innings. The rotation could be better than last year's, which hovered around the league average (4.57 ERA compared to AL average of 4.63). How good was their offense in 2007? They ranked first in the American League in batting average, on base percentage, slugging percentage, total bases, runs, homeruns, RBIs. They had the fourth most SBs. 3B Alex Rodriguez (314/422/645 with 54 HRs, 156 RBIs, 143 runs, 31 2Bs and 24 SBs) and C Jorge Posada 338/426/543, 20 HRs, 90 RBIs) both had a career years and will come back to earth, but they are both among the best at their position. Jeter hit 322/388/452. 2B Robinson Cano hit 306/353/488 with 19 HRs and 97 RBIs despite a slow start. He had kept his power lower than expected as he has chosen to be a groundball hitter rather than a flyball hitter. RF Bobby Abreu hit 283/369/445 with 40 2Bs and 25 SBs despite an atrocious first two months. 1B/DH Jason Giambi, CF/LF/DH Johnny Damon and LF/DH Hideki Matsui are not what they use to be but they can still hit the ball far and Giambi takes a lot of pitches. The team has a lot of patience throughout the lineup; they see a lot of pitches and get to the opponents bullpen quickly. Unlike recent previous seasons, this year's incarnation has a strong bench with infielder Wilson Betemit, corner infielder Morgan Ensberg, and 1B/corner outfielder Shelley Duncan; all have power and are versatile. How they'll lose: The age issue. A number of players including Jeter, Abreu, and Damon can be expected to see their numbers decline. And A-Rod and Posada are not likely to repeat their career seasons. The expected regression could cost the team 50-75 runs over the course of the year although the pitching might improve over last season's showing. The bullpen has question marks. Kyle Farnsworth is a head-case who might blow opponents away with a fastball that touches the high 90s or he might lose control (of his emotions and his pitches) and not get anyone out. Mariano Rivera is a good closer but not the elite closer he was a few years ago, although he induces a lot of groundball outs with his still dominating cutter. Edwar Martinez, who isn't yet on the roster, has a great changeup but nothing else to go with his diminutive frame (6'3", 155 lbs). He had an 8.14 ERA in 21 IP but also struck out 31. LaTroy Hawkins was good last year in Colorado but relievers are notoriously inconsistent so he might or might not make much of a difference. For now Chamberlain (34 Ks in 24 IP, 0.71 ERA and 0.38 WHIP) will be the only reliable reliever before the ninth and he can pitch one or two innings with his four plus-pitches. Unfortunately, with the total innings limits on Kennedy and Hughes and the age of Mussina and Petite, the Yankees will probably need their bullpen more than other top contenders. That is not a good thing for this team. The Ugly: The defense. CF Miguel Cabrera is pretty good and has a great arm, catcher Posada has made adjustments and improved his defense in recent years, as has 2B Robinson Cano. A-Rod appeared more comfortable at 3B last year, but other than that, the D is pretty awful. SS Jeter has not deserved the three Gold Gloves he has won and might be reaching the point where he is a liability at the position. Abreu doesn't have the arm in rightfield he once did, Damon and Matsui are showing their age and injuries in left, and Giambi is worse than a pilon at first. Also ugly is starter Mike Mussina. He is having troubles getting his fastball into the mid-80s and if he breaks down, that could mean an early graduation for Chamberlain from the bullpen to the rotation. Unfulfilled Need: Bullpen depth and a backup plan if Mussina breaks down or the young starters don't pan out. Who to watch: Chamberlain wins Rookie of the Year as he keeps his ERA under 3.00. Prediction: 90-92 wins Toronto Blue Jays Why they'll win:: There are not a lot of weaknesses in this team. If you take out their two stars, they have perfectly average players throughout the lineup with the exception of catcher where they are slightly worse than average in both their starter (Gregg Zaun) and backup (Rod Barajas). RF Alex Rio had a very good year -- 297/363/527 with 24 HRs and 15 SBs and a good glove and arm -- and is likely to improve. Aaron Hill hits extremely well for a 2B (291/333/459, 47 2Bs and 17 HRs). But no one else stands out. The Jays had the second best rotation in the AL last year, with a 4.24 ERA. Roy Halladay is the ace (16-7, 3.71 ERA in 232 IP). He doesn't get a lot of strikeouts, but he gets the job done by keeping the ball on the ground. He went at least 7 innings in each of his last 10 starts. When he is healthy, A.J. Burnett is a plus pitcher (214 opponents batting average and 176 Ks in 165.2 IP) who can dominate a game with a fastball that hits 98 MPH. But despite the performance of the starters last year, those are the only two safe bets to repeat (or improve). Dustin McGowan should improve on his 12-10 record and 4.08 ERA in 169.2 IP. His fastball hits 96 MPH but needs to improve the consistency of his slider and curveball to remain at the level he has attained. Shaun Marcum posted a 12-6 record and a 4.13 ERA with a great changeup and two breaking pitches but his high 80s fastball leaves a lot to be desired. Jesse Litsch had a great rookie year with a 3.81 ERA in 20 games but he could easily regress, especially considering he lacks a dependable out pitch. If the starters maintain their '07 performances, the Jays could get lucky and compete in 2008. The bullpen is good (3.46 ERA) and is solid throughout, although the loss of Casey Janssen (2.35 ERA in 72.2 IP) and the delayed return of B.J. Ryan (career 3.28 ERA, 554 Ks in 458 IP, average 37 saves in years in which was the full-time closer) make it less deep than was expected. Jeremy Accardo (2.14 ERA and 30 saves) filled in nicely but having Ryan return and Accardo resume his setup role would make the bullpen incredibly deep. Still, Scott Downs, Jason Frasor, Brandon League (assuming he returns to form), Brian Tallet and possibly Brian Wolfe (eight shutout innings in Spring training) comprise a surprisingly strong bullpen. If 1B Lyle Overbay has a career year this season and 3B Scott Rolen returns to his career averages and if the team avoids injuries and the starters and relievers replicate their collective 2007 performances and if Rios continues to improve and if Vernon Wells performs closer to his 2006 season than his 2007 season, and ... and ... and. The Jays need a lot to go their way for them to reach the potential of 90 wins. It seems unlikely they'll get that many breaks. Some things will break their way, some things won't. They'll end up with a 500 season, perfectly reflecting the average-ness of the team. Why they'll lose: It's not that the team is bad but that with the exception of Rios and Hill everyone is, at best, only slightly above average. That goes for Wells. He has had two great years (2003 and 2006) and everyone in the organization and Toronto press seem to think that those seasons reflect his real abilities, not the other four full seasons. The fact is the Jays are paying Wells like a superstar when, once you take ballpark and opponents quality into account, he is merely a very solid, good-but-not-great CF. Halladay and Burnett are a great one-two when they are healthy, but it is huge risk to expect all three back-end starters to replicate their good 2007 performances. If one or more can't, the team might have to go to the awful Gustavo Chacin. The bullpen was good last year but relievers are often inconsistent. This bullpen is a better bet than most to replicate, but bullpens are unpredictable. The team seems injury prone. Last year, the Jays lost 950 games to injuries. That kind of fragility sinks teams and the Jays must avoid injuries to have any chance to compete. They have already lost Janssen for the year and newly acquired 3B Scott Rolen for the next few weeks. Frank Thomas and Matt Stairs might begin playing like 40-year-olds. The Ugly: The Jays have several starters who induce a lot of groundballs but free agent signing David Eckstein is a poor SS and Rolen with his age and injuries might have some trouble on artificial turf. I think the leftside of the infield is weak and it will be reflected in a slight bump in the team's ERA. Eckstein's 309/356/388 line might be better than defensive whiz John McDonald, but McDonald's glove more than makes up for it, especially considering the pitchers' tendencies. Someone said the best thing that could happen to the Jays is for Eckstein to get injured. It's probably true. Unfulfilled need: A new GM who won't spend market or above-market prices for the quality they get at almost every position player. This prevents them from having the money to pay one superstar the kind of money that could push this team to the next level. A new manager. John Gibbons is simply not a championship quality skipper. Who to watch: When Burnett brings his A-game, he is as good as anyone out there and he is an utter joy to watch. Prediction: 81-83 wins Tampa Bay Rays Why they'll win: They have a lot of talent on their squad. They are a good bet to snap their 10 consecutive seasons of 90+ losses. The front end of the rotation is as good as any in the division. Scott Kazmir had a 3.48 ERA and 239 Ks in 206.2 IP. He has a good fastball and improving changeup. He will continue to get better. Scott Shields quietly produced a good 12-8 season with a 3.85 ERA in 215 IP on the strength of a devastating power changeup. The Rays traded for Minnesota Twins starter Matt Garza and he is a significant upgrade in the third spot. Last year, he had a 3.69 ERA and 7.27 Ks per 9 IP. He is prone to some wildness but he has three plus pitches. There is lots of upside here and it would not surprise me to see him win 15 games while throwing 200 innings of sub-3.75 ERA ball. The front-end of the rotation could easily win 55 games. But the truly exciting part of the Rays team is their lineup. A lot of it is already good and it is getting better. 1B Carlos Pena (282/380/442, 46 HRs, 121 RBIs) had a career year so far out of whack with anything else he has done -- he was released after the 2006 season -- that he should be expected to regress. Still there is more than enough talent throughout the lineup to make up for it. LF Carl Crawford hit 315 and led the league with 50 SBs. B.J. Upton hit 300/386/508 with 24 HRs in just 474 ABs and is expected to get better. When 3B Evan Longoria finally makes the big leagues (expected in May), his bat is predicted to make an instant impact. There is a lot of youth and diversity in skill sets and tendencies in the lineup and they should score more runs. Why they'l lose: Last year their pitching was incomprehensibly awful. They finished with a team ERA of 5.53 and a relief ERA of 6.16. Opponents hit 303 off the bullpen. The back end of the rotation is pretty bad. While there is some room for development, there is little reason to expect much out of Edwin Jackson and Andy Sonnanstine, both of whom allowed a 293-299 opponents BA and nearly 11 hits per nine innings. They were 11-25 between them. The bullpen is thought to be better with the addition of Troy Percival (1.80 ERA in 40 IP with the St. Louis Cardinals last year) and a full season of Dan Wheeler (although his AL ERA was higher than his NL ERA last year). Moving Al Reyes (26 saves, 215 opponents BA, 70 Ks in 60.2 IP but also a 4.90 ERA) out of the closer role and to setup will make a difference, but it is hard to see where the rest of the improvement will come from. Would you be intimidated by a bullpen that includes Gary Glover, Grant Balfour and Scott Dohmann? No matter how much better the lineup is and how good the front end of the rotation is, the team needs to reduce their runs allowed by 100 to get back into the game. That's a lot. Not sure they'll reach it but they'll get a good start on it. C Dioner Navarro had a horrible 227/286/356 line but was much better in the second half of the season (285 BA, 475 SLG). He is not a great backstop but has a slightly better than average arm against base-stealers (25.3% caught). The team needs the Navarro of the second half of 2007 all year this season. What's ugly: Rocco Baldelli's injury. Doctors do not know a lot about the mitochondrial disorder that saps his energy but it has landed him on the 60-day DL. Losing him, changing the dynamics of the outfield/DH situation and the team lost some depth/bench strength with the uncertainity surrounding the illness. Unfulfilled need: The organization has patiently built the team on the field. To compete this year, they need consistent decent performances at the tail end of the rotation and some reliable bullpen help but it is not necessary to sacrifice the future to meet these needs today. The prospects in the pipeline will make a difference in 2009 or 2010 and there is no reason to risk the future for minimal return now. It's not like the team will be good enough to make the jump to a playoff spot. Who to watch: Evan Longoria makes a run for the Rookie of the Year, but a late call up from the minors probably prevents him from winning it. It also keeps the team from its first 500 season. Prediction: 79-80 wins Baltimore Orioles How will they win? Only through divine intervention. There isn't much on this roster. RF Nick Markakis (300 BA, 23 HRs, 112 RBIs, great defensive player) is becoming a star and will likely remain one for a long, long time. Second year starter Jeremy Guthrie is the only bright spot in the rotation. He went 7-5 with a 3.70 ERA and had 19 quality starts in his 26 games. He has four good pitches including a fastball that touches the high 90s. If you take out his horrid June numbers, he had a 3.07 ERA. CF Adam Jones, acquired from Seattle as part of the trade for starter Erik Bedard, should be a solid contributor some day and there is no reason why that day won't come in 2008. But that's about it. Why they'll lose? Pretty much everything else sucks. The Orioles are easily the worst team in the AL. They are worse in every area of the game and every department than each of their four AL East rivals. Other than Guthrie, Markakis and Jones, any useful part (2B Brian Roberts, 3B Melvin Mora) is likely to finish the season on someone else's roster. The Orioles have already traded two of their best three players (staff ace Erik Bedard to Seattle Mariners and SS Miguel Tejada to the Houston Astros). They were good moves but it made them much worse in teh short term. They have DH/bench player Aubrey Huff who puts up middling numbers and is toxic in the clubhouse. OF Jay Payton had an OBP of 292. SS Luis Hernandez has an OBP of 300. No infielder is likely to hit 20 HRs and it wouldn't be surprising to see them come up short of 15. Pro-rated over the full season, as many as five position players are likely to strike out 100 times. It difficult seeing them scoring much. It is even more difficult to imagine them preventing opponents from scoring. It is time to give up on the idea that Daniel Cabrera will ever become a front-of-the-rotation starter. He can't control his 97 MPH fastball, as he simply throws and doesn't pitch the ball. The rest of the rotation is so bad they brought back Steve Trachsel, who in the past two seasons has allowed more than three baserunners every two innings. The bullpen is Baltimore's gift to the opposition. They spent $42 million on relievers in the 2006 post-season and the bullpen still went 24-35 with a 5.71 ERA. It is so bad they considered giving the closer's role to Danys Baez who had a 6.44 ERA and just 29 Ks in 53 IP. In the end, George Sherrill landed the closer spot. He has four saves in 195 career appearances. Chad Bradford and Jamie Walker are the only relievers likely to have good years. But Walker is a lefty specialist, so collectively they can't be counted on for much. What's ugly: The loss column and margin of defeat. The games they play won't be pretty and the Orioles are years from fielding a competent team. The Orioles should consider it a moral victory if they evade 100 losses. When they lose, they'll lose badly. Lots of area baseball people are going to become Washington Nationals fans. Unfulfilled need: They are so far from competing that the only need is to let young, Major League-ready talent play and develop. And to find trade partners who will give up good prospects for veterans Who to watch: General Manager -- or whatever the team officially calls him -- Andy MacPhail is one of the best baseball people around. Owner Peter Angelos has so far let MacPhail do his thing and if he continues doing so, the Orioles will be allowed to rebuild. Finally, the team is beginning the process -- there are actually signs of a plan -- rather than throwing good money after bad. They are unburdending themselves of bad decisions, dumping OF Jay Gibbons and his $15 million over the next few years rather than give a few hundred at bats to a guy with a 272 OBP last year. If they are finally headed in the right direction it is because of MacPhail's presence in the front offices. Prediction: 59-62 wins The churches and immigration Damian Thompson in a Daily Telegraph blog: "When are British church leaders going to address the disaster of unrestricted immigration and help frame a Christian response to a dramatically changed social landscape? ... [There is a] pressing need for fresh Christian thinking about immigration. 'Gospel values' do indeed demand a response to persecution and racism: that has not changed. What has changed is the ability of vast numbers of people to move at will across international borders, to the point where the host societies can no longer absorb them without creating fresh misery." An additional 190,000 foreigners a year has a cost in terms of housing, consumer prices, poverty and justice. The open borders crowd -- including various Church leaders -- seem incurably incapable of grasping this. Me quoted in The Tablet Last month the Canadian Conference of Catholic Bishops came out with a pastoral letter on the environment, Our Relationship with the Environment: The Need for Conversion. I'm quoted in the English Catholic weekly The Tablet coverage of it: "From a different perspective, Paul Tuns, a conservative Catholic blogger and editor-in-chief of Canada's pro-life, pro-family newspaper The Interim, was also critical of the document. 'A lot of the letter sounds like warmed-over socialism, such as the need to share resources and for people to turn their back on consumption,' he said. 'The letter is mostly silent on the difference between the Catholic understanding of good stewardship and current popular environmentalism. It seems to place the good of the Earth and the good for people on an equal plane'." I would add that the bishop's statement is heretical when it says that the Earth, like man, is created in God's image. Wishing it weren't April 1 Warren Kinsella teases: "After a lot of deliberation, and after a lot of consultation with friends and family, I am delighted to let you know that I have decided to seek the Ontario Liberal Party nomination in our riding of Beaches East York in the upcoming election. This decision is a really big one, and is the result of a considerable amount of reflection. Necessarily, it means some significant changes are in order - among them, I am sad to say, the end of this web site. I hope you are as happy about this decision as I am - and, if you are fortunate enough to live in the greatest neighbourhood in the greatest province in the greatest country on Earth, I hope to meet with you soon, and seek your support. Thank you and God Bless Beaches East York. Warren" What's worse? Kinsella blogging or Kinsella potentially an MPP? You know what's so pathetic about this is that Kinsella certainly thinks he's so damn clever. Probably thought about all year. |
